Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

They haven't been able to prevent Cuba (poor, small, isolated) from joining the Soviet camp, and you're telling me they could prevent Québec (let alone Canada) from doing whatever they think is best for them (and whatever an independent country has the right to choose)??

But the US did pull out all the stops regardless, whether it's decades of military threats, trade sanctions, international isolation. I don't believe Quebecois have any appetite to suffer through the same tribulations just to stick it to America and try to join the EU.

The power dynamic in North America is no where near what it's like in the EU. The US absolutely dominates the affairs of the vassal states that it shares land borders with.

Except if the US became a hardcore Trump dictatorship, I can't see how even the currently dysfunctional US could EVER force Canada or Québec to do things against their will, or prevent them from choosing their own path. There are still free media in the US. And the Pentagon is not going to send US troops in Québec City to capture gouvernement buildings and send the Québec premier to a US penitentiary.

America flexes its diplomatic muscles and forces Canada's hand on a regular basis. This isn't new. America will likely put immense pressure the EU to reject Quebec's application as well from the get-go, given how reliant Europe is on American defense.

[kwoldtimer]

Something about the idea of Quebec joining the EU seems sad. A failed New World experiment?

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

So, an independent Quebec's chances of joining are next to none.

Of course they are next to none, but that's beside the point. It's just an element of leverage in a negotiation with the US (should the US ever try to pressure an independent Québec in ways imagined in this thread, which is far from certain, the US being still (for the time being) a democracy and not a Russia-like autocracy bent on pressuring and invading its neighbors).

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

But the US did pull out all the stops regardless, whether it's decades of military threats, trade sanctions, international isolation. I don't believe Quebecois have any appetite to suffer through the same tribulations just to stick it to America and try to join the EU.

What the US could do with Cuba, it could never do with Québec. First of all France would never tolerate it, but more importantly the US media, most of the Democrats, and even sizeable numbers of Republicans would not accept it. Québec is a free, friendly, and peaceful society, just a few hours drive from NYC. There's never going to be a Bay of Pigs or a blockade, except if the US becomes a hardcore Trump dictatorship with no free press anymore, but so far they aren't.

[New Brisavoine]

Anyway, regarding Acajack's post about the French center-right allying with the far-right, I was saying the president of LR (the center-right party) is isolated, it's even worse than that.

Only one MP supports him. All other MPs oppose his decision. Monumental failure!



Not only that, but most of his aides and assistants have resigned in protest:
«Alliance» LR-RN : les plus proches collaborateurs d’Éric Ciotti claquent la porte et quittent son cabinet

I expect he'll resign tomorrow. He has no other option left really.

These have been two crazy days in French politics, but the clarification on all sides was overdue. We'll probably have 2 and a half year of far-right government, but they will have to share power with Macron under the 5th Republic constitution, so they won't have all powers, and by the time of the presidential election in 2027 they will probably have become quite unpopular, and so they will deflate a lot.

Janan Ganesh in the Financial Times today had an excellent article about it, if you have access to the FT:

The last best hope against populism is to expose it to government

Financial Times
June 11, 2024

Macron has concluded that power often tames radical parties or demonstrates their incompetence

https://www.ft.com/content/7f9552e3-fba5-4ef9-8858-270a9b976ac5

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

They haven't been able to prevent Cuba (poor, small, isolated) from joining the Soviet camp, and you're telling me they could prevent Québec (let alone Canada) from doing whatever they think is best for them (and whatever an independent country has the right to choose)??

Except if the US became a hardcore Trump dictatorship, I can't see how even the currently dysfunctional US could EVER force Canada or Québec to do things against their will, or prevent them from choosing their own path. There are still free media in the US. And the Pentagon is not going to send US troops in Québec City to capture gouvernement buildings and send the Québec premier to a US penitentiary.

An independent Quebec is going to do whatever America wants. The reality is that the US is the hegemon of North America and there's nothing Quebec, or Canada, can really do about it.

[Nouvellecosse]

Seems odd to hear people seemingly equate the EU with the USSR. The USSR was the US's nemesis and arch rival that it almost engaged in nuclear war with, while the EU, despite being a competitor, is mostly friendly allies including many NATO members. It's as if someone suggested Quebec could be annexed by China.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

What the US could do with Cuba, it could never do with Québec. First of all France would never tolerate it, but more importantly the US media, most of the Democrats, and even sizeable numbers of Republicans would not accept it. Québec is a free, friendly, and peaceful society, just a few hours drive from NYC. There's never going to be a Bay of Pigs or a blockade, except if the US becomes a hardcore Trump dictatorship with no free press anymore, but so far they aren't.

Do you really think America gives two shits what France thinks or tolerates? In its own backyard America does whatever it wants. Only in a pure fantasy world would France have "diplomatic clout" to convince America to back down from its threats.

It's no different than if the UK suddenly decided to speak up for Canada in an equivalent context. America will again pay lip service to whatever the UK wants or tolerates.

Again you seem to have a poor grasp of American politics if you think Democrats and the US media will side with Quebec (or Canada) against America. Democrats and even moderate Republicans are patriots foremost, and if they feel American interests are threatened or undermined in their own backyard, they will not hesitate to cripple the Quebec economy (or Canadian economy in an equivalent context) and ratchet up the punishments.

The only reason why America would tolerate an independent Quebec in the first place, is because they have gained comfort that Quebec will remain a docile state subservient to US interests.

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

An independent Quebec is going to do whatever America wants. The reality is that the US is the hegemon of North America and there's nothing Quebec, or Canada, can really do about it.

Exactly. America might be becoming disinterested and disengaged in other parts of the world, but it retains an iron grip over its own backyard of North America.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Nouvellecosse

Seems odd to hear people seemingly equate the EU with the USSR. The USSR was the US's nemesis and arch rival that it almost engaged in nuclear war with, while the EU, despite being a competitor, is mostly friendly allies including many NATO members. It's as if someone suggested Quebec could be annexed by China.

This. It seems very unlikely that Quebec could gain full EU membership but it might cozy up to France and the EU quite a bit.

Barring some hugely unforeseen policy change I doubt this would be a big deal to the Americans.

[Acajack]

Generally speaking the Americans don't care what goes on internally in their neighbours and allies as long as it doesn't affect their economic and military interests.

So an independent Québec could eliminate the English school system and hospitals, switch McGill over to French and ban hijabs and the US wouldn't bat an eye.

[Acajack]

A country like Iceland might be a good example of what Quebec's relationship with the EU could be like.

BTW Canada was talking about pursuing closer relations with the EU (with the most wide-eyed talking about full membership ) and the Americans did not object.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

An independent Quebec is going to do whatever America wants. The reality is that the US is the hegemon of North America and there's nothing Quebec, or Canada, can really do about it.

Nope. The correct version of this idea is “an independent Quebec isn’t going to be allowed to do anything America objects to strongly enough to bother”, which is really not the same thing (I see Acajack already beat me to saying essentially this).

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

An independent Quebec is going to do whatever America wants. The reality is that the US is the hegemon of North America and there's nothing Quebec, or Canada, can really do about it.

Has the US forced you to ban abortion, restore death penalty, and allow unlimited guns? Thought so.

You have far more independence from the US than you pretend. So would an independent Québec.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

Again you seem to have a poor grasp of American politics if you think Democrats and the US media will side with Quebec (or Canada) against America.

The US media sided with the Free French of de Gaulle against the Roosevelt administration regarding Saint Pierre and Miquelon, a far smaller territory than Québec, and that's a historical fact, not some speculation.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Has the US forced you to ban abortion, restore death penalty, and allow unlimited guns? Thought so.

You have far more independence from the US than you pretend. So would an independent Québec.

Sure but assuming an angry and vindicive Canada on trade policy Quebec would be very isolated and it would be hard to maintain their high tax high social program economy without subsidy from Canada AND the protection of NAFTA.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Sure but assuming an angry and vindicive Canada on trade policy Quebec would be very isolated and it would be hard to maintain their high tax high social program economy without subsidy from Canada AND the protection of NAFTA.

True but it doesn't tell the entire hypothetical story.

Canada could not prevent an independent Quebec and the US from entering a bilateral trade agreement with each other, and it's very possible that Quebec's most important items in an eventual trade deal with the US could be different priorities than those of the current Canada or Canada-sans-Québec.

It's also possible that the US could force the hand of Canada-sans-Québec and compel it to agree to admitting Quebec into NAFTA under the current terms. Not out of any American love for Quebec but simply to not disrupt affairs in the trading bloc too much.

Another possibility is that if the Americans want to be jerks they might use Quebec independence as an opportunity to renegotiate NAFTA with Canada-sans-Québec and Québec, arguing that the old Canada entered the agreement *with* Quebec as part of it, and that now a significant chunk of what Canada brought to the table is gone.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

True but it doesn't tell the entire hypothetical story.

Canada could not prevent an independent Quebec and the US from entering a bilateral trade agreement with each other, and it's very possible that Quebec's most important items in an eventual trade deal with the US could be different priorities than those of the current Canada or Canada-sans-Québec.

It's also possible that the US could force the hand of Canada-sans-Québec and compel it to agree to admitting Quebec into NAFTA under the current terms. Not out of any American love for Quebec but simply to not disrupt affairs in the trading bloc too much.

Another possibility is that if the Americans want to be jerks they might use Quebec independence as an opportunity to renegotiate NAFTA with Canada-sans-Québec and Québec, arguing that the old Canada entered the agreement *with* Quebec as part of it, and that now a significant chunk of what Canada brought to the table is gone.

Actually Canada can prevent that. Unless Quebec is going to completely exit our regulatory and customs area which would be a devasting economic shock as in one day they'd lose accces to US and Canadian markets (as well as EU, Mexico, Japan etc). I've talked to a few soveirgnists who note Brexit really draws attention to the imposisblyt of a seperation in 21st century economy. The keep our dollar no hard border let's form a sort of EU with the rest of Canada would mean we control Quebec's trade and monetary policy. It's the catch 22 UK ended up in.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Actually Canada can prevent that. Unless Quebec is going to completely exit our regulatory and customs area which would be a devasting economic shock as in one day they'd lose accces to US and Canadian markets (as well as EU, Mexico, Japan etc). I've talked to a few soveirgnists who note Brexit really draws attention to the imposisblyt of a seperation in 21st century economy. The keep our dollar no hard border let's form a sort of EU with the rest of Canada would mean we control Quebec's trade and monetary policy. It's the catch 22 UK ended up in.

Not sure I follow. Quebec sovereignists told you that the Brexit experience makes Quebec sovereignty impossible?

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by Acajack

True but it doesn't tell the entire hypothetical story.

Canada could not prevent an independent Quebec and the US from entering a bilateral trade agreement with each other, and it's very possible that Quebec's most important items in an eventual trade deal with the US could be different priorities than those of the current Canada or Canada-sans-Québec.

It's also possible that the US could force the hand of Canada-sans-Québec and compel it to agree to admitting Quebec into NAFTA under the current terms. Not out of any American love for Quebec but simply to not disrupt affairs in the trading bloc too much.

Another possibility is that if the Americans want to be jerks they might use Quebec independence as an opportunity to renegotiate NAFTA with Canada-sans-Québec and Québec, arguing that the old Canada entered the agreement *with* Quebec as part of it, and that now a significant chunk of what Canada brought to the table is gone.

A re-negotiated NAFTA post-Quebec separation would certainly would certainly eliminate the protections for Quebec's dairy industry. There would be no political will/reason on the Canadian side to continue with the status quo and what power would a tiny nation of 7 million have against the US to keep such protections in place?

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

A re-negotiated NAFTA post-Quebec separation would certainly would certainly eliminate the protections for Quebec's dairy industry. There would be no political will/reason on the Canadian side to continue with the status quo and what power would a tiny nation of 7 million have against the US to keep such protections in place?

Yeah, that's always been a big pebble in the shoe of the Quebec sovereignty movement.

It's quite puzzling that in spite of this, Quebec's big dairy regions tend to be quite favourable to independence.