Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri
Perhaps, but their combined projected FUA growth is roughly 9,000 per year. 26 x 9,000 = 234,000. 234,000 + current combined FUA of 299,273 = 533,273. Lets be nice an add an additional 1,000 per year = 26,000 which increases the FUA to 559,273 which would be identical to Moncton's projected FUA in 2050. Unless something drastic happens with Saint John/Fredericton's strategy I don't see 650,000+ happening by 2050. They would need to increase their growth rate by 56%, to 14,000 annually to reach that goal. Obviously this is just fun & games and nothing's that linear but that's what the numbers are projecting.
I know the airport is a pipe dream that "could" help but maybe not. A project that size takes a long time to plan and get approval plus another 5-10 years to complete, for now it's just an idea with no legs to stand on. It also doesn't help that statistically Fredericton + Saint John combined passenger air traffic is less then Moncton, therefore we know ticket price improvements will be marginal at best. Don't forget the Moncton Airport services most of northern NB, not just their FUA and the prices here aren't any better except for a few direct flights. If passengers don't get cheaper tickets then what's the point? Even "IF" Moncton's was included in this project the combined passenger air traffic is still 1/3 compared to Halifax, would we even see any price improvements ? likely marginal at best.
From a logistics/distribution point of view the biggest issue they face is that Halifax and Moncton are firmly established as the Maritimes logistical/distribution centers (Walmart, Amazon etc) and they would likely lose most bids to attract major corporations over those 2 cities. By the time this project would be hypothetically completed Moncton and Halifax's logistical/distribution footprint will have likely doubled, how can they compete? Does the Maritimes really need a 3rd distribution/logistical center with the current population? Eventually all of the Major maritime cities will likely have their own distribution/logistical centers but that's a good 40+ years away and until then we likely don't need a 3rd one.
I see two major problems with the airport idea:
1. You won't get cheaper tickets except for a few outlier/direct flights.
2. It's likely to lose most bids VS Halifax/Moncton for distribution/commerce/logistical center deals.
Conclusion: if you're not getting cheaper tickets or barely boosting commerce, what's the point?
Eventually all three NB cities will have large airports as their populations increase, it's just going to take longer than anyone wants. Tax dollars are better spent elsewhere. If SJ ever got that pipeline that would be a significant boost, and if the conservatives(Federal) get in power next who knows? That's likely SJ's golden ticket to economic prosperity.
|
As I said before, things are cyclical. It’s very unlikely Moncton has a FUA of over 550,000 by 2050, which is basically 25 years away. For Moncton to have a FUA that would basically equal the current metro population of Saskatoon and Regina combined in only 25 years is some truly fantastical levels of wishful thinking. Basically I think you’re dreaming, but it’s at least a positive dream.
In the off case that your dreams do actually come true, it would mean that the NB economy and population as a whole would have grown dramatically in the next 25 years and the combined metro populations of Saint John and Fredericton would very well be over 650,000 under such a scenario. Fingers crossed such a future is what we are looking towards in 25 years… but again, it’s highly improbable current migration rates keep pace to produce these magical numbers you’ve dreamed up. 25 years of unprecedented levels of migration and economy growth is nice on paper, but hard to achieve in reality. Not impossible, but still highly improbable.
YQM has larger passenger numbers than YSJ and YFC combined at the moment, because both YSJ and YFC are smaller scale airports with less ability to compete with YQM, not because Moncton has a population more likely to purchase airline flights or something like that. So, using the current airport numbers as the basis to measure the validity of a Fredericton-Saint John airport in the future is just an inherently flawed assumption based on numbers that don’t tell a fully accurate story. The combined SJ and Fredericton FUA is currently around 300,000 people, and their combined demographics will very likely continue to be ahead of Moncton’s by 2050 based on any sort of safe assumption. Saint John has firmly been established as the main Port for the province of NB (and one of the largest in Canada), as well as the industrial centre of the province, while Fredericton remains the capital, so yes, the Maritimes could definitely use a third major airport to facilitate the growth and development of the second largest combined population area in the maritimes.
It seems no matter what the topic, you find a way to bolster the size and importance of the Moncton region and find a way to minimize and detract from the size and importance of Saint John and Fredericton regions. Perhaps take off your Moncton hat for a moment, put on a New Brunswick hat instead, and try to think a little less biased about the subject at hand.
A properly planned combined airport designed to serve Fredericton, Saint John and the rest of Southern New Brunswick would have the ability to directly compete with with YQM both in terms of routes and prices, that’s just simply how economies of scale work. It would be positive for Fredericton and Saint John and positive for Moncton and New Brunswick as a whole, and far preferable to the current situation where NB only has one major airport in YQM.
A future where Moncton’s functional urban area is larger than that of Saint John and Fredericton’s combined functional urban areas in just 25 years is far from desirable and preferable for New Brunswick… and just not at all realistic, imo. It’s possible, but it wouldn’t be a very positive future just 25 on from now. Thus, the need for government to step in and come up with ways to to spur on economic growth and development in the Fredericton and Saint John regions.
Macro economic stability is the primary goal of any good government, and stabilizing the growth and demographic trajectory of the province by investing in large scale projects for Saint John and Fredericton, such as a combined airport, become more economically necessary and justifiable. Win-win situations are both possible and desirable. Saint John and Fredericton’s combined metro populations being eclipsed by Metro Moncton or Moncton’s FUA by 2050 is far from a win-win for the province. Devising a strategy to keep Moncton growth high and help the Fredericton and Saint John regions increase their growth rates would be a win-win and far preferable for the province as a whole. Hoping and wishing for a new pipeline project to be Saint John’s golden ticket for growth and prosperity is the opposite of good economic and demographic stewardship, imo. There’s far more realistic, and sustainable long term economic projects that the government of NB can pursue than in the foreseeable future than a pipeline that will ultimately rely upon placating and negotiating with Quebec to ever get approved. We’ll just have to wait and see what the future beholds, and until then, keep on advocating for smart economic investments and projects for our perspective cities and regions. The Saint John and Fredericton regions could certainly use more tireless advocates for their regions such as yourself and Moncton Rad.
Here’s hoping for a more sustainable and prosperous economic and demographic future for all three of of NB’s main cities.
Prev
Linear Mode
