The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

Wasn't the Moncton/Magnetic Zoo also listed as the top 3 visitor attractions last year(?) just behind Hopewell Rocks and Fundy Park? Hopewell Rocks can also be claimed by Moncton by proxy, I suppose, since it's the closest (although recent tourism efforts online/CNN's list earlier this year marks it as a tourism point for Saint John somehow).

By the way, I don't really mean to belittle Saint John. I just thought that objective info about the zoo is relevant to that specific discussion point on tourism in the province.

Indeed true, does the stats include Magic Mountain as well?

Yeah I don't understand why NB Tourism Tries to point Hopewell Rocks/Fundy being closer to Saint John. It's objectively closer to Moncton, especially Hopewell Rocks and Cape Enrage. Perhaps the individuals who created these advertisements have a chip on their shoulder against Moncton, who knows .

I understand the Fundy Trail parkway / St Martin's which makes sense for Saint John as it's base but
not Fundy National Park/Cape Enrage/Hopewell Rocks

Saint John needs to add an hour of driving for Fundy and 2+ hours for Cape Enrage/Hopewell rocks compared to Moncton.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Population Change 2019-2023

- Halifax, NS: 55,974 (518,711-462,737), +12.1%
- Moncton, NB: 23,893 (178,971-155,078), +15.4%
- St. John's, NL: 14,218 (232,039-217,821), +6.5%
- Charlottetown, PE: 10,640 (90,648-80,008), +13.2%
- Fredericton, NB: 9,967 (119,059-109,092), +9.1%
- Saint John, NB: 7,636 (138,985-131,349), +5.8%
- CBRM (Sydney), NS: 7,402 (109,962-102,560), +7.2%

I know that things never remain constant, but, ignoring that, lets assume these growth rates remained constant for the next 25 years - what would be the populations of these metropolitan areas in 2050?

Projected Metropolitan Populations of Atlantic Canadian Cities in 2050 (all things remaining constant)

1) Halifax, NS - 896,535
2) Moncton, NB - 340,249
3) St. John's, NL - 328,010
4) Saint John, NB - 190,528
5) Fredericton, NB - 186,366
6) Charlottetown, PE - 162,468
7) CBRM (Sydney), NS - 159,926

Can you imagine a Halifax of nearly 900,000 people? A city that would be nearing a million residents by 2060? What would this mean for public transportation needs and for basic road infrastructure? HRM officials need to be discussing this right now!!

The Central Maritime Corridor (Halifax/Moncton/Saint John as well as intervening communities) will likely be be at least 1.8M people by 2050. Serious discussions need to be occurring regarding the re-establishment of a regional passenger rail service along this corridor. Where will highways need to be upgraded? Will Halifax to Truro on the 102 need to be six lanes? I could see similar up the KV from Saint John, and around Moncton (including the 15 to Shediac).

People need to be planning now.

It would be nice if NB would finally get onboard adding a Highway Tolls similar to NS. NB'ers get free toll but anyone else has to pay, adding 3 tolls between Moncton-Saint John-Fredericton would really help maintain/grow our highways and perhaps future railways.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

It would be nice if NB would finally get onboard adding a Highway Tolls similar to NS. NB'ers get free toll but anyone else has to pay, adding 3 tolls between Moncton-Saint John-Fredericton would really help maintain/grow our highways and perhaps future railways.

Nah. Put tolls on the TCH on the Quebec border and the Nova Scotia border. Maybe one on Route 95, aimed at trucks.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Nah. Put tolls on the TCH on the Quebec border and the Nova Scotia border. Maybe one on Route 95, aimed at trucks.

I think we can all agree NB needs tolls, our roads desperately need help.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Nah. Put tolls on the TCH on the Quebec border and the Nova Scotia border. Maybe one on Route 95, aimed at trucks.

+1 This would be the least painful to NB residents, and least likely to be political suicide.

[Nashe]

I find it kind of annoying that PEI/NB/NS residents have to pay the bridge toll, truth be told...

[Taeolas]

Yeah as far as tolling our highway goes, the Quebec and NS borders, as well as I-95 at Woodstock and maybe Route 1 at St Stephen would be the main points. PEI is a Captive Audience so we won't charge them (well aside from the bridge toll).

Considering we're slowly transitioning to EV vehicles, gas taxes are on the verge of collapsing, so we won't be able to rely on that to pay for the highways. Tolls would be a natural way to offset that collapse at least. (probably combined with higher vehicle registration fees in province to offset the loss of gas-tax revenue)

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Canadian_cities_by_census#1901

SJ was literally in the top 5-8 cities in Canada for the first 4 censuses. Moncton will never even come close to cracking the top ten, ever. It’s easy to punch out these numbers based on recent trends, but there’s nothing to back them up in the long term.

Things are far more cyclical than many of you seem to believe. Saint John’s decline coincided with opening of the St. Lawrence seaway, and a large part of Saint John’s resurgence has been due in part to growth Port Saint John. Cargo shipping is wildly different today than it was even 30 years ago, the ships are getting more and more massive, and these behemoth ships can’t navigate the St. Lawrence, but they can absolutely call upon Saint John and Halifax. Saint John has quite a lot of strategic, logistical advantages compared to Halifax, primarily being that SJ is less isolated and closer to the large population centres, and it’s rail connections are more extensive… CPKS for example can get cans from SJ all the way down to Mexico. There’s all kinds of opportunities for growth in the Saint John economy due to the port, that simply don’t exist for Moncton and Fredericton.

Moreover people from west of the Maritimes aren’t steeped in the “Saint John sucks” stereotypes that are all too common throughout the maritimes, and especially here in New Brunswick. People from Quebec and Ontario and elsewhere have been buying up ocean-view real estate in Saint John, because it’s undervalued. We may very well be the only metro area in Canada where people actually pay more money to be further away from the ocean, because it’s seen as more desirable to live away from the foggy sea side city, but this is finally changing— large in part due to outside influence and investment in Saint John’s real estate market. Ask NBers to rank the top 3 cities in NB, and the results will shock no one, SJ will be ranked third. Ask people from outside the region who’ve visited all three cities on a vacation, and many will list SJ first.

Canada has the longest coastline in the world, but it might surprise many that Saint John is actually the 5th largest coastal CMA in Canada after Vancouver, Halifax, Victoria, and St. John’s. That’s pretty significant. Lots of people romanticize living near the ocean, and it’s one of the best, unique things Saint John has going for it despite a lack of capitalization building tall residential buildings near the coast to take advantage of those coastal views. Something Moncton is doing a tremendous job in comparison, despite not having anywhere near as stunning coastal views as Saint John.

Don’t be surprised if by 2050 the numbers are far greater for SJ than what you have listed, or if Moncton’s growth slows down. Greater Saint John won’t be overtaking Metro Moncton anytime soon, but it’s absolutely not out of the question eventually. Again, things are far more cyclical than many of you seem to believe. We may all be dead by 2100, but it wouldn’t surprise me if by then Saint John was back in the number 1 spot. History has a tendency to repeat itself. Now might be Moncton’s time to shine, and good for Moncton! SJ has quite a lot to learn and emulate from Moncton’s success. However, SJ’s unique advantages due to its coastal geography simply aren’t things that can be emulated or replicated really anywhere else in NB. NB’s cities should care less about competing against each other, and care more about cooperating together in order to compete with Nova Scotia, and improve the brand that is New Brunswick. Nova Scotia has terrific branding and marketing, as does PEI and Newfoundland… New Brunswick has a long way to go.

One can take your post about SJ at one time being in the top 5-8 cities and asking what happened. Why did SJ stagnate while other cities grew? Do hope SJ can rebound from its manufacturing decline and find its niche.

[adamuptownsj]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Yeah as far as tolling our highway goes, the Quebec and NS borders, as well as I-95 at Woodstock and maybe Route 1 at St Stephen would be the main points. PEI is a Captive Audience so we won't charge them (well aside from the bridge toll).

Considering we're slowly transitioning to EV vehicles, gas taxes are on the verge of collapsing, so we won't be able to rely on that to pay for the highways. Tolls would be a natural way to offset that collapse at least. (probably combined with higher vehicle registration fees in province to offset the loss of gas-tax revenue)

I see hybrids being the future (as does Toyota), which doesn't hurt the main thrust of the argument. Not sure how much of a beating a 'decarbonized' grid can take without gigantic nuclear/hydro/geothermal expansion. Between heat pumps and EVs there's a lot of new strain on a weaker grid.

I was down around Wolfville over the weekend and man, their highways and arterials are even worse than ours. Surprising tbh.

[MonctonRad]

Top 10 Municipalities in NB 2023, based on population:

1) Moncton - 91,085
2) Saint John - 75,015
3) Fredericton - 69,406
4) Dieppe - 32,177
5) Riverview - 21,712
6) Quispamsis - 19,874
7) Miramichi - 18,565
8) Edmundston - 17,175
9) Tracadie - 16,533
10) Bathurst - 12,731

[Nashe]

I'd guess Shediac is around 10k now?

[Beaubassin]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I'd guess Shediac is around 10k now?

Shediac with the local governance reform is probably around 12k if we extrapolate the growth from Shediac Parish

Shediac Parish (5,146 - 5,584) 8.5% growth from 2020 to 2023

If we apply the same growth rate to the subdivisions inside Shediac Parish that the town of Shediac amalgamated, we can get a rough estimate:

Shediac Cape LSD 1,062 (2020) -> 1,152 (2023)
Pointe du Chene LSD 767 (2020) -> 832 (2023)
Scoudouc LSD part B 1,000 (2020) -> 1085 (2023) [Shediac's part is around 95%] -> 1031
Scoudouc Road LSD 228 (2020) -> 247 (2023)

Shediac TV 8,723 (2023)

If we add it all up, Shediac should be around 12k as of July 1st 2023.

Cap-Acadie would have a population of 10,660 as of july 1st 2023, since it's just Beaubassin and Cap-Pelé merged together

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

I'd guess Shediac is around 10k now?

It's important to note that the above estimates are based on the municipal boundaries that existed prior to the municipal reforms from last year.

Given Shediac's expanded boundaries, the town may have surpassed Bathurst to lie at the #10 spot on the list.

If not, it soon will.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Beaubassin

If we add it all up, Shediac should be around 12k as of July 1st 2023.

Cap-Acadie would have a population of 10,660 as of july 1st 2023, since it's just Beaubassin and Cap-Pelé merged together

Thanks for your analysis.

I foresee a future in 10-20 years time where both Shediac and Cap-Acadie become included in the Moncton CMA. If this were the case right now, it would be reasonable to assume a current Moncton CMA population of around 210,000.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Thanks for your analysis.

I foresee a future in 10-20 years time where both Shediac and Cap-Acadie become included in the Moncton CMA. If this were the case right now, it would be reasonable to assume a current Moncton CMA population of around 210,000.

Indeed, it's just a matter of time. IMO it should have been part of Moncton's CMA a long time ago. Excluding it doesn't properly represent the region's true population.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by adamuptownsj

Nah. Put tolls on the TCH on the Quebec border and the Nova Scotia border. Maybe one on Route 95, aimed at trucks.

How about on the SJ city limits? Quispamsis and Rothesay’s leaders try and gaslight us and say the paltry contributions their towns contribute to Saint John is already a fair amount, but I think we all know it’s nowhere close to their “fair share”

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

"SJ was literally in the top 5-8 cities in Canada for the first 4 censuses. Moncton will never even come close to cracking the top ten, ever. It’s easy to punch out these numbers based on recent trends, but there’s nothing to back them up in the long term. "

Saint John could have been #1 largest city in Canada, it still doesn't make it a mid-sized city. Important to the country yes! Important to our History? of course! I'm not denying Saint John's importance in the history books But a mid-sized city? Nope. Halifax was the first and only mid-sized city in the Maritimes and it's well on it's way to becoming a Large city. It's arguably already there, depending on your POV.


"NB’s cities should care less about competing against each other, and care more about cooperating together in order to compete with Nova Scotia, and improve the brand that is New Brunswick. Nova Scotia has terrific branding and marketing, as does PEI and Newfoundland… New Brunswick has a long "

This has always been and will always be the downfall of NB, at least for the next 2-3 decades until all three city's reach mid-sized status.

Halifax's advantages:
A) Capitol
B) Largest city in NS
C) Centrally located in NS
D) And most importantly, zero competition from any other city in NS
*Lets be honest here, if someone says they're moving to NS what they're really saying is I'm moving to Halifax.

NB Dilemma
A) Fredericton is the capitol. Capitol cities never go away, growth maybe slow a times but it never stops. Beautiful & Charming university city
B) Saint John is the port city but has an uphill/impossible battle VS Halifax IMO. Saint John is facing a major identity crisis atm. At least for the next 2-3 decades, we'll likely be dead before the port becomes a viable solution for the region.
C) Moncton's unique geographical/logistical location is perfect and it has been the prime reason for it's growth. It bilingual workforce is something no other Maritime city can match and a big reason we have many corporate offices here.


"Canada has the longest coastline in the world, but it might surprise many that Saint John is actually the 5th largest coastal CMA in Canada after Vancouver, Halifax, Victoria, and St. John’s. That’s pretty significant. Lots of people romanticize living near the ocean, and it’s one of the best, unique things Saint John has going for it despite a lack of capitalization building tall residential buildings near the coast to take advantage of those coastal views. Something Moncton is doing a tremendous job in comparison, despite not having anywhere near as stunning coastal views as Saint John."

Perhaps for now, but eventually in the next 2-3 decades, the Shediac region will be amalgamated into Moncton's CMA. It's kind of ridiculous it isn't already since it's only a 10-12 minute drive, it literally takes as much time to drive across the city than it does to drive to Shediac. For context this would be the equivalence of removing Rothesay/Quispamsis from Saint John's CMA.

Moncton will never be a true Coastal city, but I'll argue it offers something only one other city can(Charlottetown). The warmest, nicest beaches in Canada by a significant margin(Northumberland Straight). You have to go all the way down to Carolina USA to experience this type of water/weather. You can poke fun a Parlee Breach all you want but we have 100's beaches to access, only tourist & teenagers go to Parlee, locals go to Aboiteau.


"Don’t be surprised if by 2050 the numbers are far greater for SJ than what you have listed, or if Moncton’s growth slows down. Greater Saint John won’t be overtaking Metro Moncton anytime soon, but it’s absolutely not out of the question eventually. Again, things are far more cyclical than many of you seem to believe. We may all be dead by 2100, but it wouldn’t surprise me if by then Saint John was back in the number 1 spot. History has a tendency to repeat itself. Now might be Moncton’s time to shine, and good for Moncton! SJ has quite a lot to learn and emulate from Moncton’s success. However, SJ’s unique advantages due to its coastal geography simply aren’t things that can be emulated or replicated really anywhere else in NB. NB’s cities should care less about competing against each other, and care more about cooperating together in order to compete with Nova Scotia, and improve the brand that is New Brunswick. Nova Scotia has terrific branding and marketing, as does PEI and Newfoundland… New Brunswick has a long way to go."

Yes things are cyclical, but Moncton's been on a 30+ year cycle at this point, our CMA surpassed Saint John's almost two decades ago. Moncton's perfect geographical location, Airport/industrial sector and Bilingual workforce is the driving force behind this growth, the city learnt it's lessons from the past and isn't as sector sensitive compared to Saint John, for now.

" Ask NBers to rank the top 3 cities in NB, and the results will shock no one, SJ will be ranked third. Ask people from outside the region who’ve visited all three cities on a vacation, and many will list SJ first."

Intra/inter provincial migration stats say otherwise. FYI the Moncton region(Shediac included) see's million's of visitors each summer, Shediac alone nearly receives a million visitor's due to it's proximity to PEI, the Northumberland straight and Hopewell Rocks/Fundy. When you get on the Veteran's highway in the summer you'll at times more Ontario & Quebec license plates than NB. Intra/Inter migration 9/10 online comments and dilemma's I read is; Fredericton is the nicest city but too quiet or I want to move to Moncton but will bilingualism be a problem.

If Saint John was a top 10 and top 20 city in Canada, then it was a mid sized city, no matter what arbitrary goal posts you’re moving around. It’s no longer a mid sized city， but neither is Moncton for that matter. Also, trying to say SJ was never a mid size city is just so petty like come on now!

You’ve sure typed a whole lot here to basically say “Moncton perfect- Saint John dismal”

What you’re referring to with tourism numbers isn’t what I’m talking about. How many of those million visitors to the Moncton Region also went to Saint John? I’m talking about the perception of the three cities based on their built environment and first impressions for a tourist that visited all three cities. Saint John still feels like a bigger city than Moncton, because the architecture Uptown, because the port, and the bridge/viaduct. Moncton feels far more suburban compared to Saint John.

Like I said before, Moncton is clearly doing a lot of things way better than Saint John. If Moncton keeps on building high rises at this rate, while Saint John struggles to build them, Moncton may very well fell bigger than Saint John based on the built environment one day too.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

The difference has been drastic in Moncton, comparing when the population was around 140,000 to today around 190,000. Perhaps because Moncton wasn't as densely populated as Saint John we notice it more. Resto's are always packed, the bus's full and the streets always have pedestrians walking. There's a massive positive buzz in the city ATM. 50,000-60,000 isn't anything to scoff at, it's nearly adding Moncton's/Saint John's population from a decade ago lol.

I think you’re seeing a lot of what you want to believe here.

There’s not a fundamental difference between a CMA around 150k and another around 200k.

You claim that there will be a massive shift in the type of events and opportunities once a city or metro area cracks 200K, but what are you basing this claim on?

And what type of events do you really expect to manifest?

I’d say 300k, 400k, 500k are far more significant milestones for what you’re claiming at here.

[EnvisionSaintJohn]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Top 10 Municipalities in NB 2023, based on population:

1) Moncton - 91,085
2) Saint John - 75,015
3) Fredericton - 69,406
4) Dieppe - 32,177
5) Riverview - 21,712
6) Quispamsis - 19,874
7) Miramichi - 18,565
8) Edmundston - 17,175
9) Tracadie - 16,533
10) Bathurst - 12,731

Is there a benefit to Quispamsis and Riverview continuing to cosplay as towns rather than declaring themselves a city like Dieppe?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by EnvisionSaintJohn

Is there a benefit to Quispamsis and Riverview continuing to cosplay as towns rather than declaring themselves a city like Dieppe?

Cities are required by law to provide bilingual services. Towns are not.