Canada's 4th city

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by lio45

Montreal is adding more people per year than Vancouver, in other words the population gap between the two is increasing every passing year. i.e. Montreal is growing and leaving Vancouver behind.

Growth rates are medieval thinking; I guess our homo sapiens brains are basically wired to assume that everyone stays their entire life in the same village in which they were born and population growth only comes from the rate at which the locals are having babies.

The only useful use of growth rate these days (in a country like Canada) is to measure approximate infrastructure strain.

Yes, the gap is increasing, albeit slightly. In 2011, the gap was roughly 1.5M and now it's roughly 1.6M.

In demographically mature countries, growth rates tend to fall off as cities become larger. They still add lots of people, just less relative to their larger size.

Exactly what we observe in this case - Montreal with a higher popultion and lower growth rate is adding more people than Vancouver, in typical years (non-Covid).

Vancouver has now reached 1991 Montreal population levels while Montreal has reached 2001 Toronto population levels.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by niwell

While significant, I don't necessarily think 20-30k job cuts in Ottawa would be disastrous. Depends on how they do it of course. As Acajack mentioned above a pretty big chunk could be done through a mix of retirement packages, hiring freeze with no new positions filled and non-renewal of contract positions. Unionized positions with seniority would presumably have a period of time to try and find something else within the organization before becoming jobless.

This certainly isn't a guarantee but I've seen it happen in the Ontario Public Service both under Wynne and Ford. It's not *that* impactful internally but certainly sucked for those trying to get in early in their career. Of course the OPS never had anything close to the bloat that currently exists in the Federal PS and always ran relatively lean compared to other Provinces. I'd expect much more of an impact in a place like Ottawa but probably nowhere near as bad as oil crashes in Calgary.

I think an oil crash is exactly what it will do to the demographics of Ottawa. Disastrous is a different question but even 30k job losses is a lot. The 2014 downturn in Alberta saw 35k jobs lost provincewide. Some of these are filled by commuters so less impactful. It slowed in migration to Calgary which is kind of only recently recovering thanks to the low housing costs which are a result of said layoffs and downturn. So yeah it can make an impact.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

40k is very unlikely. Since 2015, the PS has added ~41k jobs in the NCR. I don't think we're going back to 2015 numbers. I think 20-30k in Ottawa is highly likely over their first term.

https://www.canada.ca/en/treasury-bo...ic-region.html



True. But relevant to this discussion is that those level of job cuts is going to basically kill growth in Ottawa. It will keep the local unemployment rate elevated for years. Ottawa could end up firmly in sixth place, behind Edmonton in CMA size. Though, I'd still say in terms of national relevance Ottawa > Edmonton.

The numbers being thrown around here regarding eventual Poilievre government job cuts represent around 2% of the active (workforce) population in Ottawa-Gatineau.

Of course that doesn't include spinoff impacts on restaurants, retail and other services public servants use.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think an oil crash is exactly what it will do to the demographics of Ottawa. Disastrous is a different question but even 30k job losses is a lot. The 2014 downturn in Alberta saw 35k jobs lost provincewide. Some of these are filled by commuters so less impactful. It slowed in migration to Calgary which is kind of only recently recovering thanks to the low housing costs which are a result of said layoffs and downturn. So yeah it can make an impact.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The numbers being thrown around here regarding eventual Poilievre government job cuts represent around 2% of the active (workforce) population in Ottawa-Gatineau.

Of course that doesn't include spinoff impacts on restaurants, retail and other services public servants use.

Yeah. I wouldn't characterize it as "disastrous". But it's definitely going to kill growth for years. Not just a few.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Yeah. I wouldn't characterize it as "disastrous". But it's definitely going to kill growth for years. Not just a few.

Even the government simply slowing down hiring can have a noticeable ripple effect in the capital region.

Anyway, we get this from time to time and have to live with it. Overall we're still a very blessed region in terms of economic fortunes.

The Jean Chrétien cutbacks of the early 1990s allowed us to buy our first SFH house (neither of us were government employees) for dirt-cheap. Probably less than half the price of a *parking spot* in central Toronto today!

[niwell]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even the government simply slowing down hiring can have a noticeable ripple effect in the capital region.

Anyway, we get this from time to time and have to live with it. Overall we're still a very blessed region in terms of economic fortunes.

The Jean Chrétien cutbacks of the early 1990s allowed us to buy our first SFH house (neither of us were government employees) for dirt-cheap. Probably less than half the price of a *parking spot* in central Toronto today!

My in-laws bought their first house in Briargreen (Nepean) around the same time after moving from Australia. With cash. To say that house has appreciated in value since would be an understatement! Neither of them worked in government as well.

But yes, even with these downturns Ottawa has always struck me as a more steady place. Even with cuts there's still a large, stable workforce, and there's definitely been years in the past of slow growth. Calgary *really* felt the busts, particularly back in the day (it's definitely more diversified now), and amongst my peers growing up I can't think of anyone whose parents in the oil sector weren't laid off at least once.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by niwell

My in-laws bought their first house in Briargreen (Nepean) around the same time after moving from Australia. With cash. To say that house has appreciated in value since would be an understatement! Neither of them worked in government as well.

But yes, even with these downturns Ottawa has always struck me as a more steady place. Even with cuts there's still a large, stable workforce, and there's definitely been years in the past of slow growth. Calgary *really* felt the busts, particularly back in the day (it's definitely more diversified now), and amongst my peers growing up I can't think of anyone whose parents in the oil sector weren't laid off at least once.

It's a bit of a cliché but Calgary's lows are a lot lower (in bust times) but its highs are also quite a bit higher. Calgary as a result is for example a much better luxury retail city than Ottawa is, for everything from expensive clothes to fine champagne.

[Reccilake]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Maybe of the Prairie provinces but Vancouver tops it for Western provinces.

I would say based on the number of head offices, amount of office space and head office employees Calgary beats out Vancouver. Vancouver has a lot of secondary offices. Alberta’s corporate tax rate is 4% less which helps make a case for companies to locate there.

[Nouvellecosse]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even the government simply slowing down hiring can have a noticeable ripple effect in the capital region.

Anyway, we get this from time to time and have to live with it. Overall we're still a very blessed region in terms of economic fortunes.

The Jean Chrétien cutbacks of the early 1990s allowed us to buy our first SFH house (neither of us were government employees) for dirt-cheap. Probably less than half the price of a *parking spot* in central Toronto today!

Maybe it will help prompt the economy to diversify. Would be nice to get another Corel or Nortel but with more staying power.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Even the government simply slowing down hiring can have a noticeable ripple effect in the capital region.

Anyway, we get this from time to time and have to live with it. Overall we're still a very blessed region in terms of economic fortunes.

The Jean Chrétien cutbacks of the early 1990s allowed us to buy our first SFH house (neither of us were government employees) for dirt-cheap. Probably less than half the price of a *parking spot* in central Toronto today!

Given how extremely unaffordable housing is in the GTA, I feel like Ottawa's population can't actually really decline. A scenario where Ottawa shrinks because of federal austerity is one where the city's housing prices will fall and lots of office space will suddenly become available, which will attract "overflow" businesses & people priced out of the GTA, and the problem will correct itself.

For well established major cities in growing countries, the shrinking of a primary industry is a fantastic opportunity for creative destruction & regeneration.

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

For well established major cities in growing countries, the shrinking of a primary industry is a fantastic opportunity for creative destruction & regeneration.

I agree. It can take decades though.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Reccilake

I would say based on the number of head offices, amount of office space and head office employees Calgary beats out Vancouver. Vancouver has a lot of secondary offices. Alberta’s corporate tax rate is 4% less which helps make a case for companies to locate there.

The latest Statistics Canada survey found 198 corporate head offices in Calgary, and 240 in Vancouver. There were more people employed in head offices in Calgary in 2022 than in Vancouver. Calgary has been losing head offices, and head office jobs for a number of years, the Economic Commission says they lost 15 head offices in 2021.

Colliers says Calgary has 71m sq ft of offices, but only 53m was occupied. Vancouver has 73.7m sq ft, and 67.2m sq ft was occupied in Q1 2024. There's another 4.7m sq ft under construction in Vancouver, and as far as I can tell, none in Calgary (which is to be expected with a 25% vacancy rate).

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by CanSpice

Maybe of the Prairie provinces but Vancouver tops it for Western provinces.

Vancouver is definitely NOT a business centre. It has a larger economy than Calgary but a business centre is exactly that........a centre of business. Vancouver is only home to 4 of Canada's largest companies and the largest, Tech Resources, only clocks in at #20. Calgary is home to 9 and has several in the top 10.

Vancouver's has a lot of important sectors like tech, tourism, film, and especially it's Port but that does not make it a business centre. It is no more a business centre than Calgary is a manufacturing one.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Given how extremely unaffordable housing is in the GTA, I feel like Ottawa's population can't actually really decline. A scenario where Ottawa shrinks because of federal austerity is one where the city's housing prices will fall and lots of office space will suddenly become available, which will attract "overflow" businesses & people priced out of the GTA, and the problem will correct itself.

For well established major cities in growing countries, the shrinking of a primary industry is a fantastic opportunity for creative destruction & regeneration.

Ottawa is too far away to attract GTA overflow. And with GO RER coming online progressively over the next 10 years, Hamilton, KWC, Oshawa and Barrie are all decent alternatives to GTA proper. If HFR happens, Peterborough is going to become unrecognizable. And beyond that there's London and Kingston. Ottawa should be a reliever metro to Montreal. But that doesn't work since Montreal is cheaper.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Ottawa is too far away to attract GTA overflow. And with GO RER coming online progressively over the next 10 years, Hamilton, KWC, Oshawa and Barrie are all decent alternatives to GTA proper. If HFR happens, Peterborough is going to become unrecognizable. And beyond that there's London and Kingston. Ottawa should be a reliever metro to Montreal. But that doesn't work since Montreal is cheaper.

Yes but I think he makes a good point. Laid off mid or early career civil servants are maybe more likely to hang around Ottawa, look for remote work/live off their EI for awhile rather than move because GTA is so expensive. It might not lower population as much as expected. Those 50+ are certain to hang around even if their spending power will be reduced.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but I think he makes a good point. Laid off mid or early career civil servants are maybe more likely to hang around Ottawa, look for remote work/live off their EI for awhile rather than move because GTA is so expensive. It might not lower population as much as expected. Those 50+ are certain to hang around even if their spending power will be reduced.

Don't forget the severance pay and/or buyouts - Ottawa could be awash in cash when a downsizing occurs.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Yes but I think he makes a good point. Laid off mid or early career civil servants are maybe more likely to hang around Ottawa, look for remote work/live off their EI for awhile rather than move because GTA is so expensive. It might not lower population as much as expected. Those 50+ are certain to hang around even if their spending power will be reduced.

I never said it would lower population. Well maybe if 40 000 jobs get cut.... I said growth would stall for years. Ottawa pretty much grows with the federal government. An austere federal government will limit Ottawa's growth. About the only factor that might help Ottawa (unlike 90s austerity) is defence spending. There's a lot more military activity, defence R&D and defence contractors in Ottawa now. They are doing everything from developing software for the coming frigates to developing night vision compatible cockpit avionics. I don't think a lot of people in Ottawa really understand how much of Ottawa's tech sector is now involved in defence contracting and development. As long as defence spending isn't cut at the same time, Ottawa should be fine.

I don't think most of these public servants who are likely to get laid off will have easy transitions though. A lot of them in customer service or very junior paper pusher roles ("policy analyst"). And some of those skills don't necessarily lend themselves to easily winning lucrative remote work. I imagine a Junior Policy Analyst at Women and Gender Equality Canada will have to do a bit of work to be able to translate their experience into lucrative remote private sector work.

[niwell]

A junior policy analyst no, but a senior analyst or manager later in their career taking a package / early retirement could probably find some consulting gigs. People I know from the OPS did exactly this when offered packages. Lots of people in these positions in Ottawa likely own their property which helps.

[DesignerGuy]

Ottawa here. Not everyone in town works for the federal government. We have a large tech workforce. Don't forget Shopify was founded in Ottawa. I am a business owner and most of my clients are private sector. I have several clients who have relocated from GTA, some for jobs some for cheaper housing, better quality of life (if you love the outdoors). Met a young couple at Chelsea Pub who were born and raised in downtown Toronto and specifically moved to Ottawa because of the cost of housing and better quality of life in general (less traffic, quicker access to nature, skiing etc..) They even said they prefer Ottawa winters over Toronto's lol

I know quite a few ex-Montrealers who have relocated here. A few young restaurant entrepreneurs from MTL opened up a new resto in the market that was ranked top 10 best new restaurants in Canada recently.

Having said this, i also know lots of people from Ottawa who moved to Toronto or MTL for a more exciting urban experience. Nightlife, concerts, better shops etc.. Some hated Ottawa's snowy winters, although it's not that much colder than Toronto when averaged out over the year. Ottawa is not the best city for shopping - would be nice to have better furniture stores, CB2, Crate and Barrel for starters. Calgary shopping is far better and more high end (been there a few times)

At the end of the day, i made Ottawa home after living in Toronto, Montreal and Waterloo specifically for access to skiing, cottage areas and it's big enough and has enough wealth that my business does well here. I don't mind the winter because i ski and the summers here are absolutely gorgeous, long hot summer nights are the best!!!

To comment on the coming change in Government, I recall the layoffs from the Harper years and recall a slow down locally for about a year. A lot of the job cuts were older workers who were close to retiring. Ottawa has a stable and diversified enough economy to handle this from time to time IMO

[niwell]

Was curious so did a quick rundown of the jobs of our close friends and family in Ottawa. A fairly representative group but trending on the higher end of living standards.

-2 directly with the Feds
-2 in a Federal agency
-1 doing mostly government consulting work
-3 working for large corporations (including Shopify)
-1 architect
-3 in healthcare
-1 police officer
-3/4 in contracting / trades

While the Federal government obviously plays a big role in the city it feels more diversified than the Calgary I grew up in (as mentioned it’s a bit different these days).