The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[q12]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Totally sustainable.

Don't worry they are building the Cape Breton Monorail remember!

[adamuptownsj]

Cape Breton magicking itself a housing crisis out of thin air is something else.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

CMA POPULATIONS FOR JULY 1st 2023

Halifax (NS) - 518,711
St. John's (NL) - 232,039
Moncton (NB) - 178,791
Saint John (NB) - 138, 985
Fredericton (NB) - 119,059

The Moncton population is almost 10,000 greater than in 2022, meaning that our current population is probably about 188,000.

Moncton is probably within 15-18 months of breaking the 200,000 barrier.

And, to round out the Atlantic "big seven", here are the 2023 population figures for the two largest CAs:

CBRM (Sydney) NS - 109,962
Charlottetown PE - 90,648

Last year I was quietly optimistic that Moncton CMA would reach 200k in 2-3 years, Moncton alone (non-CMA) is 1-2 years from reaching 100,000 which is equally impressive!

Currently Moncton's ~30% larger than the 2nd largest CMA and likely only 5-7 years from being 50% larger at the current growth rate!

[MonctonRad]

Graph stolen from the Canada section:



Moncton is the 2nd fastest growing CMA in the federation. We are almost always #1 or #2. We've done it again.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Moncton is the 2nd fastest growing CMA in the federation. We are almost always #1 or #2. We've done it again.

Yes, but to be fair, Moncton is significantly smaller base population-wise than the other municipalities in that list. So yes, it is impressive and cool but it is kind of like saying "you should invest in this start-up as they've had 2000% YoY growth!" When the prior year they had total revenues of $500.

Happy for Moncton, but perspective.

Overall, I think it is great that ALL of the Maritime cities are doing respectively well growth-wise after decades of sluggish times. That's a bigger reason to uncork the champagne in my opinion.

[Mattyyy]

Originally Posted by Pugsley

Yes, but to be fair, Moncton is significantly smaller base population-wise than the other municipalities in that list. So yes, it is impressive and cool but it is kind of like saying "you should invest in this start-up as they've had 2000% YoY growth!" When the prior year they had total revenues of $500.

Happy for Moncton, but perspective.

Overall, I think it is great that ALL of the Maritime cities are doing respectively well growth-wise after decades of sluggish times. That's a bigger reason to uncork the champagne in my opinion.

I don’t agree with your analogy at all - I actually think it’s the opposite when it comes to population growth. Having a city with Moncton’s CMA and adding 10,000 per year is very impressive. Comparing that to a speculative stock that everybody is attracted to purely based on speculation just doesn’t fit.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by Mattyyy

I don’t agree with your analogy at all - I actually think it’s the opposite when it comes to population growth. Having a city with Moncton’s CMA and adding 10,000 per year is very impressive. Comparing that to a speculative stock that everybody is attracted to purely based on speculation just doesn’t fit.

Or another way to spin it is Moncton is growing at a rate 50% faster than Fredericton and 110%+ faster than Saint John. IMO Moncton is the Outlier here and is clearly separating itself from the other NB Cities . Compare Moncton to Other 130,000-180,000 CMA's and again the numbers are incredibly impressive.

Once Moncton CMA breaks 200,000 it will bring opportunities/events we wouldn't get otherwise in the province. Ultimately the other cities will benefits from this as well. NB will finally have for the first time in it's history what I consider a "mid-sized city" in Canada.

[new kid in town]

The sustained population growth of Moncton hopefully pushes for changes in construction and development so we can get those projects in the pipeline started!

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by Mattyyy

I don’t agree with your analogy at all - I actually think it’s the opposite when it comes to population growth. Having a city with Moncton’s CMA and adding 10,000 per year is very impressive. Comparing that to a speculative stock that everybody is attracted to purely based on speculation just doesn’t fit.

All I am saying is...it is simple math. A percentage increase is based on the base and the new number. Lower the number, the more impactful the percentage increase for what you add to it. I'm not arguing that Moncton's growth isn't impressive, but remember Toronto adds a Moncton, maybe two of them, each year to it's urban first layer alone.

Just suggesting....be proud, but not cocky. LOL

[Helladog]

Growth due to interprovincial migration:

[Dmajackson]

Nova Scotia breakdown;

1. Halifax CMA 518'711 +3.96%
2. Cape Breton CA 109'962 +6.66%
3. Truro CA 49'597 +1.57% (13'738 +2.31% in town proper)
4. New Glasgow CA 36'208 +1.24% (10'160 +2.84% in town proper)
5. Kentville CA 28'288 +1.92% (7'339 +2.8% in town proper)

Most regions of Nova Scotia grew by 1-2% but there were a few small towns that grew substantially.

Town of Wolfville 5'500 +3.03%
Town of Berwick 2'795 +6.51%
Town of Lunenburg 2'675 +5.39%
Town of Shelburne 1'842 +5.07%
Town of Stewiacke 1'796 +7.41%
Town of Oxford 1'342 +5.91%

The towns of Westville, Middleton, Digby, Mahone Bay, Lockeport, and Mulgrave all shrunk.

One spot that did peak my interest was West Hants Municipality. This area borders HRM so over the years it has slowly grown at a slow but steady pace. In the last year though it shrunk by 200 people! I wonder what caused this anomaly.

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by new kid in town

The sustained population growth of Moncton hopefully pushes for changes in construction and development so we can get those projects in the pipeline started!

100% Here's a quote from Bill Hennessey to Moncton city council two weeks ago - Quote:

"The thing that really freaked me out quite candidly, was the 3,897, the stuff that’s sitting on people’s desks that they’re not mobilizing because they can’t make it commercially viable,” Hennessey told City Council.

Almost 4000 units on hold.

[MonctonRad]

NATIONAL CMA POPULATION RANKINGS

The Alpha Six:

1) Toronto ON - 6,804,847
2) Montreal QC - 4,502,177
3) Vancouver BC - 2,971,853
4) Calgary AB - 1,682,509
5) Ottawa/Gatineau ON/QC - 1,605,809
6) Edmonton AB - 1,563,571

The Beta Three:

7) Winnipeg MB - 910,240
8) Quebec City QC - 880,875
9) Hamilton ON - 841,186

The 400 Plus Club:

10) Kitchener/Waterloo ON - 665,188
11) London ON - 608,343
12) Halifax NS - 518,711
13) St. Catherines/Niagara ON - 478,261
14) Windsor ON - 467,973
15) Oshawa ON - 464,356
16) Victoria BC - 434,429

The 200 Plus Club:

17) Saskatoon SK - 352,093
18) Regina SK - 271,119
19) Kelowna BC - 246,894
20) Sherbrooke QC - 238,808
21) Barrie ON - 238,540
22) St. John's NL - 232,039
23) Abbotsford BC - 213,785

The Rest of the Pack

24) Kingston ON - 188,267
25) Sudbury ON - 185,230
26) Guelph ON - 180,476
27) Moncton NB - 178,971
28) Trois Rivieres QC - 169,204
29) Brantford ON - 167,718
30) Saguenay QC - 167,399
31) Peterborough ON - 142,737
32) Saint John NB - 138,985
33) Lethbridge AB - 135,230
34) Thunder Bay ON - 130,752
35) Nanaimo BC - 125,430
36) Kamloops BC - 125,332
37) Chilliwack BC - 124,163
38) Belleville ON - 121,982
39) Fredericton NB - 119,059
40) Red Deer AB - 109,262
41) Drummondville QC - 106,347

Knocking at the Door (still CAs):

42) Chatham/Kent ON - 110,986
43) CBRM (Sydney) NS - 109,962
44) Sarnia ON - 106,984
45) Prince George BC - 96,758
46) Granby QC - 93,922
47) Charlottetown PE - 90,648

So, from an Atlantic Canadian viewpoint, the population ramkings for our largest CMAs/CAs are:

12) - Halifax, NS
22) - St. John's, NL
27) - Moncton, NB
32) - Saint John, NB
39) - Fredericton, NB
43) - CBRM (Sydney), NS
47) - Charlottetown, PE

For those who are wondering, the reason why CBRM is not already a CMA is because the Statistics Canada definition of a CMA requires an urban core (POPCTR) population of greater than 50,000. The population of CBRM is far too distributed to meet that definition

I am going to go out on a limb and state that Moncton will continue to move up in the rankings, and, I think in two years will be a top 25 CMA in Canada. When Moncton first became a CMA a little over 20 years ago, our ranking was 32nd (I believe), and now we are #27.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by MonctonGoldenTri

Or another way to spin it is Moncton is growing at a rate 50% faster than Fredericton and 110%+ faster than Saint John. IMO Moncton is the Outlier here and is clearly separating itself from the other NB Cities . Compare Moncton to Other 130,000-180,000 CMA's and again the numbers are incredibly impressive.

Once Moncton CMA breaks 200,000 it will bring opportunities/events we wouldn't get otherwise in the province. Ultimately the other cities will benefits from this as well. NB will finally have for the first time in it's history what I consider a "mid-sized city" in Canada.

That's not historically accurate, since at one time Saint John was by all accounts a large city in Canada.

I'd argue with the continued growth of all cities across the country, Moncton will still be a small city even at 200,000 in the CMA because the bar will continue to move; Halifax is a mid-sized city and it is more than twice as populous by comparison.

I do agree that it will be good for the province as a whole, it's definitely not a competition at this point, given the growth of all three large NB cities they will continue to bleed closer together and the divisions will hopefully diminish over time.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

That's not historically accurate, since at one time Saint John was by all accounts a large city in Canada.

This is very true ( from a 19th century context).

It has been so long since NB has had a top 25 city however, I'm sure you can excuse monctongoldentri's enthusiasm.

[MonctonGoldenTri]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

That's not historically accurate, since at one time Saint John was by all accounts a large city in Canada.

I'd argue with the continued growth of all cities across the country, Moncton will still be a small city even at 200,000 in the CMA because the bar will continue to move; Halifax is a mid-sized city and it is more than twice as populous by comparison.

I do agree that it will be good for the province as a whole, it's definitely not a competition at this point, given the growth of all three large NB cities they will continue to bleed closer together and the divisions will hopefully diminish over time.

I respectfully disagree, given Canada is such a young country almost all cities were tiny/small except for the major centers (Montreal, Toronto etc).

Also if you take the three cities average growth rate(%) since 2001 and apply it to the next 25 years Moncton could/should be roughly 2x larger.

Moncton @ 2% growth over 25 years = 293,670
Saint John @ 0.5% growth over 25 years = 157,441
Fredericton @ 1.25% growth over 25 years = 162,419

If you apply the recent growth numbers over 25 years:

Moncton 10,351 x 25 years = 258,775 + current pop 178,971 = 437,746
Saint John 3,420 x 25 years = 85,500 + current pop 138,985 = 224,485
Fredericton 4,543 x 25 years = 113,575 + current pop 119,059 = 232,634


The realistic answer likely lies somewhere in between those two projections but i wouldn't be surprised if all 3 cities surpass either projections.

[theshark]

Northern NB has also seen growth, all CA, except Campbellton has seen a 2% + growth. Its nice to see some growth! Also i was checking the Bathurst CA and was surprised to see some parts of the RSC 3 not included, some just outside the city like Allardville and Belledune. The RSC population is closer to 36K

[Philbilly]

CBC article about New Brunswick new population stats.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7212235

[DyAm00394]

Originally Posted by Philbilly

CBC article about New Brunswick new population stats.

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7212235

An interesting read. I see the Moncton-based economist that was interviewed says he doesn't expect the growth to continue at the same pace, because of the changes the federal government has announced to immigration and international students. Saying that shift is expected to result in lower population growth in the Maritimes, which will require careful planning to address housing and labour demands.

[new kid in town]

Originally Posted by DyAm00394

An interesting read. I see the Moncton-based economist that was interviewed says he doesn't expect the growth to continue at the same pace, because of the changes the federal government has announced to immigration and international students. Saying that shift is expected to result in lower population growth in the Maritimes, which will require careful planning to address housing and labour demands.

Indeed. Especially since we also have headlines and articles about rate of rent exploding in NB faster than most of the country, lagging behind other maritime provinces in creation of new housing, and NB receiving a D- in poverty reduction, etc. It's a damn shame if this growth gets stifled by continued extreme fiscal stringency.