Winnipeg CMA in 5 years (2026)

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by EdwardTH

These are valid concerns but none of the issues with these institutions are new. None of the problems just suddenly appeared 2 years ago when immigration levels increased. The problem is not "too many immigrants", the problem is that for 3 decades government has prioritized corporate welfare and corporate tax cuts over funding public services that Canadians need.

Someone online published how much Trump cut taxes to the largest and most well known companies in America (example 23$ tax rate to 8% tax rate), and when some people brought up how the lost tax money is just going to be picked up by the middle and working class, most of the responses were "well this is a good thing! Corporations can now charge less for goods and services," or my personal favourite- "you sound like a socialist/communist!"

God help us all. Social media has broken our brains.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

The older immigrants, again generally speaking, will stay around Winnipeg because they've settled and found stability.

To convince someone to stay in Winnipeg will be difficult if they can afford to move and have the freedom to do so.

Having lived in Alberta for years, it is much easier to live there than it is here, regardless of age. Higher wages, less income tax, no PST, better jobs. With the exception of Calgary, which is becoming unaffordable, the rest of Alberta is nearly on par with Winnipeg to live, and especially rent.

After all is said and done, it's still better to live in Edmonton than it is in Winnipeg considering housing prices are slightly higher but the trade-off is higher paying jobs with less tax.

The people that tend to stick around are ones that have family and developed social circles in Winnipeg, which is more likely as one ages.

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Someone online published how much Trump cut taxes to the largest and most well known companies in America (example 23$ tax rate to 8% tax rate), and when some people brought up how the lost tax money is just going to be picked up by the middle and working class, most of the responses were "well this is a good thing! Corporations can now charge less for goods and services," or my personal favourite- "you sound like a socialist/communist!"

God help us all. Social media has broken our brains.

Yeah, the other day my dad was raging about "wasteful government" causing high taxes, I tried to tell him how during his lifetime the tax burden has shifted away from corporations and left the rest of us to pick up the tab, but it was like talking to a brick wall.

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Having lived in Alberta for years, it is much easier to live there than it is here, regardless of age. Higher wages, less income tax, no PST, better jobs. With the exception of Calgary, which is becoming unaffordable, the rest of Alberta is nearly on par with Winnipeg to live, and especially rent.

After all is said and done, it's still better to live in Edmonton than it is in Winnipeg considering housing prices are slightly higher but the trade-off is higher paying jobs with less tax.

The people that tend to stick around are ones that have family and developed social circles in Winnipeg.

Tough to compete with oil money. That Alberta lifestyle is entirely contingent upon it.

[Jammon]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

Tough to compete with oil money. That Alberta lifestyle is entirely contingent upon it.

But everyone is competing with Alberta right now- BC, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. This boom cycle for Alberta will fizzle- it has before and it will again. Eventually, Alberta will price itself out just like what's happened in BC in recent years. Massive growth leads to higher costs. It's only a matter of time.

[P&M40BELOW]

Originally Posted by trueviking

where does this assertion that our infrastructure is built for 600,000 people come from? There are cities half the size of Winnipeg with twice the number of people.....the issue isn't population growth. The issue is where we have built places for everyone to live.....we are far better off to change that than to fear growth.

all those immigrants killing wildlife in traffic.....evil immigrants.

We are probably the largest city in CAN/ US without a proper road system or real rapid transit. The city needs to make up its mind and build one or the other. That being said our major roads are under built and over used; maybe that’s the place to start.

[pspeid]

Originally Posted by Jammon

But everyone is competing with Alberta right now- BC, Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. This boom cycle for Alberta will fizzle- it has before and it will again. Eventually, Alberta will price itself out just like what's happened in BC in recent years. Massive growth leads to higher costs. It's only a matter of time.

You must be psychic:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...nomy-1.7210649

[bon_vivant]

Originally Posted by P&M40BELOW

We are probably the largest city in CAN/ US without a proper road system or rapid transit. The city needs to make up its mind and build one or the other. That being said our major roads are under built and over used; maybe that’s the place to start.

Poor roads and inadequate public transit hinders growth and reduces quality of life for everyone. It's hard to lure or keep the best and brightest when you can barely offer these basic things. Other cities are decades ahead in this respect, while we're still figuring out how to fill potholes properly.

[plrh]

It's crazy to me that Winnipeg is now as populous as Calgary was in 2000. Which is around when I started lurking on this forum.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

The industry I'm in, engineering, there are equal opportunities in all major Cities and a lot of smaller Cities.

The people I work with can either transfer within our company to any major City. Or simply get a job at another firm. Once you have experience, that is very, very easy to do. There's nothing we can do besides giving them money to stay. Like here's 20 grand cash to stay. But most companies won't do that. Imagine if the Province started offering cash to people to stay here. Would be mayhem.

Attracting big companies or head office or whatever to Winnipeg won't change that in my work life. But that will attract other potential high earners to come here or stay here.

in addition to low wages, Manitoba has high income tex rates. Here's a comparison of the provincial tax rates for $100K employment income:

BC - 10.5%
AB - 10%
SK - 12.5%
MB - 17.4%
ON - 9.15%
QC - 19% (Quebec taxpayers receive a 15% abatement off federal taxes owing)
NB - 16%
NS - 17.5%
PE - 16.7%
NL - 15.8%
YK - 9%
NU - 7%
NT - 8.6%

Manitoba is not competitive with any province west of Quebec.

[ColdRain&Snow]

Originally Posted by Ozabald

in addition to low wages, Manitoba has high income tex rates. Here's a comparison of the provincial tax rates for $100K employment income:

BC - 10.5%
AB - 10%
SK - 12.5%
MB - 17.4%
ON - 9.15%
QC - 19% (Quebec taxpayers receive a 15% abatement off federal taxes owing)
NB - 16%
NS - 17.5%
PE - 16.7%
NL - 15.8%
YK - 9%
NU - 7%
NT - 8.6%

Manitoba is not competitive with any province west of Quebec.

Median income in Winnipeg is $40,000 as of 2020. The vast majority of people are not making $100,000 per year. The neighbourhood of Lord Roberts is just slightly above the median income. Would you be able to pull up the income tax numbers for people making $40,000? I'm sure Manitoba is still higher than other western provinces but it would be interesting to see.

Source:
https://legacy.winnipeg.ca/census/20...%20Roberts.pdf

[Justanothermember]

I thought Wob was going to cut income and/or corporate tax for the purposes of making the province more competitive with Western provinces?

[Riverman]

Easy to compare at different incomes and provinces. Use the E&Y tax calculator. There is a heavier tax load for low income folks in Manitoba, one of the reasons I left.

[bomberjet]

Here's the thing. In consulting engineering. I will make the same wage here as I would in Calgary or Edmonton. In theory, there are different wages for different locations. But not in reality for most people. There is no incentive for me to move to Alberta. I won't make more money there, except for the tax thing you mention. Not moving the needle for me.

The incentives for Calgary is that its so nice, there's no poor people, the have a train, they have oil. I could care less. If I'm moving somewhere in Canada, it's Montreal.

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by Riverman

Easy to compare at different incomes and provinces. Use the E&Y tax calculator. There is a heavier tax load for low income folks in Manitoba, one of the reasons I left.

I mean if you say so. Every single person I've ever personally known who moved away from here did it for jobs and lifestyle (aka transit, walkability, nightlife, etc). Literally never heard anyone mention income tax, or roads for that matter. Could be a generational thing, frankly no disrespect but it's younger people we need to keep here. And they move for jobs and lifestyle, not tax brackets.

[bon_vivant]

Originally Posted by bomberjet

Here's the thing. In consulting engineering. I will make the same wage here as I would in Calgary or Edmonton. In theory, there are different wages for different locations. But not in reality for most people. There is no incentive for me to move to Alberta. I won't make more money there, except for the tax thing you mention. Not moving the needle for me.

The incentives for Calgary is that its so nice, there's no poor people, the have a train, they have oil. I could care less. If I'm moving somewhere in Canada, it's Montreal.

Calgary is wealthier, prettier, and has vastly superior transportation infrastructure. But it also lacks character and has an American vibe that I never cared for. I lived there, I know. Still, for young people who want to be in a modern and growing city with seemingly more opportunities, I can see the appeal.

[Hockey]

I did a monte-carlo simulation of 10,000 scenarios to model when Wpg CMA will hit 1M.

Below are the results. 2029 is the first year that the 1M is more likely than not.

July Pr(Wpg CMA > 1M)
2024 0.00%
2025 0.00%
2026 0.02%
2027 2.38%
2028 20.57%
2029 54.21%
2030 80.77%
2031 94.18%
2032 98.52%
2033 99.71%
2034 99.93%
2035 99.99%

[FactaNV]

Originally Posted by bon_vivant

Calgary is wealthier, prettier, and has vastly superior transportation infrastructure. But it also lacks character and has an American vibe that I never cared for. I lived there, I know. Still, for young people who want to be in a modern and growing city with seemingly more opportunities, I can see the appeal.

As a young guy, I never saw the appeal of Calgary, definitely not since the CoL is just as high as Van now It's a land of freeways and soulless corporate shit. As clean as the city is it somehow feels...artificial? The vibe never did it for me I guess and I'm a lake guy, not a mountain guy. The parks and the C Train are sick though, I wish we had oil money for cool shit like that haha.

[EdwardTH]

Originally Posted by FactaNV

As a young guy, I never saw the appeal of Calgary, definitely not since the CoL is just as high as Van now It's a land of freeways and soulless corporate shit. As clean as the city is it somehow feels...artificial? The vibe never did it for me I guess and I'm a lake guy, not a mountain guy. The parks and the C Train are sick though, I wish we had oil money for cool shit like that haha.

Yeah Calgary is a hot choice for families but I can't see the draw for young people, other than jobs obviously. Otherwise it's not a great city to be a 20-something in. Unless you're from the prairies and want to stay close to home I can't see why any young person would pick Calgary over Montreal. Even somewhere with a ski bum culture like Golden would be more fun than Calgary IMO.

[Biff]

Originally Posted by Hockey

I did a monte-carlo simulation of 10,000 scenarios to model when Wpg CMA will hit 1M.

Below are the results. 2029 is the first year that the 1M is more likely than not.

July Pr(Wpg CMA > 1M)
2024 0.00%
2025 0.00%
2026 0.02%
2027 2.38%
2028 20.57%
2029 54.21%
2030 80.77%
2031 94.18%
2032 98.52%
2033 99.71%
2034 99.93%
2035 99.99%

My guess would be 27/28
2023 - 910
2024 - 935
2025 - 955
2026 - 975
2027 - 995
2028 - 1,015