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  #8161  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 3:23 AM
casper casper is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
A positive balance of payments is not “counted as exports.” If the asset is sold at a higher price and the profits remitted to China it would count as investment income in China and contribute to its GDP.

Unless the asset is used for something productive, such as converting thr house to a bread and breakfast that hired employees then there is no economic growth. The taxes would be paid by any owner, as would any services such as lawn care.
Well 10-20 years ago in the Vancouver market, the foreign investment would have translated into building a few extra floors onto a condo tower above what would normally have been built. So I guess the construction revenue and supply chain would be a net positive.

Today, with a shortage of home, where building don't need any extra motivation to max out their project, I agree the benefit is limited.
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  #8162  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 3:31 AM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Also, I have no idea where “bread and breakfast” came from, one would think the former would be included in the latter.
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  #8163  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 8:35 AM
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410,000 newcomers to Canada in the first four months of 2024, a 47% increase from last year (278,000 during the same period). On track for a third straight year of record population growth. My bet is we blow by 1.5 million with ease.

Source: Globe and Mail.
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  #8164  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 10:31 AM
casper casper is offline
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
410,000 newcomers to Canada in the first four months of 2024, a 47% increase from last year (278,000 during the same period). On track for a third straight year of record population growth. My bet is we blow by 1.5 million with ease.

Source: Globe and Mail.
Unlikely, the federal government announced the cap on issuing visas on January 22. You would assume it is a few months between when someone is issued a visa and they actually show up.

We should see that start to have an impact in Q2 and be more pronounced in Q3 and Q4.
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  #8165  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 10:56 AM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Unlikely, the federal government announced the cap on issuing visas on January 22. You would assume it is a few months between when someone is issued a visa and they actually show up.

We should see that start to have an impact in Q2 and be more pronounced in Q3 and Q4.
Monthly visa issuances are down a little, but not by much.

https://open.canada.ca/data/en/datas...c-bc6025fce2ab
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  #8166  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 11:59 AM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
410,000 newcomers to Canada in the first four months of 2024, a 47% increase from last year (278,000 during the same period). On track for a third straight year of record population growth. My bet is we blow by 1.5 million with ease.

Source: Globe and Mail.
The good news in there is that the fundamental laws of the universe tell us that 1.8 million new permanent jobs will be created in Canada in 2024, according to Nite
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  #8167  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 12:15 PM
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The good news in there is that the fundamental laws of the universe tell us that 1.8 million new permanent jobs will be created in Canada in 2024, according to Nite
It's the corollary to Justin Trudeau's First Law of Finance which states unequivocally that "the budget will balance itself."

The second and third JT Laws of Governance are:

#2 - What me worry???
#3 - Don't worry, be happy, it'll all be sunny ways and sunny days.........
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  #8168  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 12:38 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is offline
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Monthly visa issuances are down a little, but not by much.

https://open.canada.ca/data/en/datas...c-bc6025fce2ab
Oh you mean it was all talk with little concrete change? I'm shocked!
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  #8169  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 4:44 PM
Dartguard Dartguard is online now
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Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
It's the corollary to Justin Trudeau's First Law of Finance which states unequivocally that "the budget will balance itself."

The second and third JT Laws of Governance are:

#2 - What me worry???
#3 - Don't worry, be happy, it'll all be sunny ways and sunny days.........
# 4 Why would I care, I am Rich and you aren't.

We can do this all day!
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  #8170  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 5:04 PM
OldDartmouthMark OldDartmouthMark is offline
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
410,000 newcomers to Canada in the first four months of 2024, a 47% increase from last year (278,000 during the same period). On track for a third straight year of record population growth. My bet is we blow by 1.5 million with ease.

Source: Globe and Mail.
Groan… as we continue to sink further into the abyss.

Honestly, how many decades will it take to recover from this? Of course, recovery doesn’t start until the gates are closed, so I suppose it isn’t a fair question…

This thought that I just had might seem a little “out there”, but the whole scenario seems so nonsensical and illogical, one tends to wonder whether there is some ulterior motive behind all this. I never delve into the world of conspiracy theories, but WTF???
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  #8171  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 5:23 PM
OldDartmouthMark OldDartmouthMark is offline
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Originally Posted by thewave46 View Post
If the housing market could keep up to the influx of demand, certainly, selling mansions to foreigners can be a quite profitable venture.

Dubai does well on the influx of money doing exactly this.

Now, if we engage in a scenario in which we limit (or are unable to build rapidly enough) housing supply, bring in many new bodies to fill our low-wage sector without a plan to house them, and allow foreigners to purchase Canadian homes at the luxury end of our market, it will very much increase prices for the locals.

The luxury homes will be built for foreign money. They will absorb a chunk of our construction workforce to build the most profitable ventures. The large increase in low-end demand for accommodation will drive rental demand higher. Unfortunately, demand divorced from local economic conditions and expectations now makes the situation for the longer-term locals perilous. Why cater to the locals expecting cheap rent/homes, when one can easily cater to either the hyper-rich, or those who are desperate to have a roof over their heads because they are new to the country, regardless of the number of people crammed into said abode.

If you are a local who owns their home, win for you. If you are a local who aspires to own their home or rents, not so great.
Well said, except that the idea that it’s a win for the local who owns their home is superficial at best. Sure, the value of their home increases, but if they take advantage of the hike in value and sell… what do they do next? It’s not like they can go down the street and buy another for substantially less… in fact they would be lucky if they could even find another place to live.

Meanwhile, the “number of people crammed into said abode” only further degrades the quality of life for everyone. Desperation has already seeped into the core of our existence/culture, and there are no signs on the horizon that it will get any better.
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  #8172  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 5:40 PM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Yeah, that’s a good point OldDartmouthMark. The correct version of thewave46’s statement is that it’s a win for the locals who owned real estate portfolios before the Scheme started
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  #8173  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 5:52 PM
OldDartmouthMark OldDartmouthMark is offline
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Yeah, that’s a good point OldDartmouthMark. The correct version of thewave46’s statement is that it’s a win for the locals who owned real estate portfolios before the Scheme started
Yes. Agreed.

But those people are definitely not the majority, so the situation is a big lose to the vast majority of Canadians, old and new, and all between… with a few exceptions I imagine, that will be the force behind a number of anecdotes that “prove” certain assertions.
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  #8174  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 6:02 PM
P'tit Renard P'tit Renard is offline
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Originally Posted by theman23 View Post
410,000 newcomers to Canada in the first four months of 2024, a 47% increase from last year (278,000 during the same period). On track for a third straight year of record population growth. My bet is we blow by 1.5 million with ease.

Source: Globe and Mail.
Yep, and NBF doesn't expect the immigration limit to have any meaningful impact until 2025 or after:

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  #8175  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 6:04 PM
P'tit Renard P'tit Renard is offline
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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark View Post
Yes. Agreed.

But those people are definitely not the majority, so the situation is a big lose to the vast majority of Canadians, old and new, and all between… with a few exceptions I imagine, that will be the force behind a number of anecdotes that “prove” certain assertions.
At this point the speculords, slumlords and property nobility class make up the large majority of core Liberal party voters, so at least it counts for Team Trudeau and Team Jagmeet. We have a party for the working class proposing to directly subsidise mortgagors, this is how much of a farce Canadian Federal politics has become.
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  #8176  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 6:33 PM
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Should we be against exports as they dump money into Canadian real estate ? This kind of logic doesn't make sense. It's the fake student uber workers who are causing a housing shortage. Rich chinese buying West Vancouver housing renovating and paying taxes is almost all positive for our economy.
Here's a good summary on why it was not a good situation for Vancouver. Assuming the woke cabal doesn't find Mother Jones to be some xenophobic "rage farming" journal.

It is a long but very well-written and researched article and should be a must-read for everyone interested in urban affairs.

POLITICS
MAY/JUNE 2017 ISSUE
Is Your City Being Sold Off to Global Elites?
Visas for sale, skyrocketing housing prices, miles of condos.
PAUL ROBERTS

“See the little pair of shoes?” Kerry Starchuk brings her minivan to a halt before a sprawling manse with antebellum columns and a cast-iron fence and points to the front door. Sure enough, next to the welcome mat sits a solitary pair of clogs. Realtors do that, Starchuk tells me, “to make it look like someone is living there.” But a quick survey of the property spoils the ruse. The blinds are drawn. The lawn is overgrown and the capacious circular driveway is empty. Still, Starchuk credits the effort. “Some of the houses, you drive by and they haven’t even picked up their mail.”

It’s midmorning on a Saturday in Richmond, a suburb of Vancouver, British Columbia, and this is maybe the 20th example we’ve seen of what locals call the “empty-house syndrome“—homes purchased by foreign nationals, many of them wealthy Chinese, and left to sit vacant. Some will eventually have occupants; Vancouver is a top destination for well-heeled emigrants. But often, the new owners treat the houses as little more than vehicles for spiriting capital out of China....

....But for many longtime residents, Vancouver’s evolving role as a giant safety deposit box for China’s elite has been profoundly destabilizing. Thanks in part to foreign capital, home prices here have more than doubled since 2006. In one 12-month period (mid-2015 to mid-2016), the median price for a single-family house jumped nearly 40 percent, to $1.17 million, making Vancouver almost as expensive as San Francisco, but with a job market that is far less varied and robust....

....Vancouver’s wounds may have been self-inflicted. But this won’t be the last urban housing market blown up by the trillions of dollars now pouring out of emerging market economies. Given the attractiveness of urban real estate to foreign investors—and the temptation that outside capital poses for cash-strapped cities—the Vancouver debacle should be a required case study for urban politicians, activists, and citizens everywhere....

....The only problem is that a midsize housing market like Vancouver’s was unprepared for so much new capital. As Chinese money poured in, housing prices quickly outpaced local incomes, which remained among the lowest of any major Canadian metro area. Instead of building a gleaming new economy of technology and entrepreneurship, Vancouver found itself with a financialized economy, whose fastest-growing sectors were real estate, home construction, mortgage lending, and, eventually, speculation—and not just by foreigners. Locals, too, were now investing in the hot housing market.....

....It would be easy for other cities watching Vancouver to misread the crisis as somehow unique and unrepeatable—a perfect storm of exceptional political and historical factors. But if current trends continue, over the next decade the 1 percenters of emerging economies will continue to move trillions of dollars overseas. And while that capital will flow into every conceivable asset—from oil companies to vineyards to art—real estate will be a priority. ....(bold mine)


https://www.motherjones.com/politics...reign-capital/
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  #8177  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 6:42 PM
lio45 lio45 is online now
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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark View Post
Yes. Agreed.

But those people are definitely not the majority, so the situation is a big lose to the vast majority of Canadians, old and new, and all between… with a few exceptions I imagine, that will be the force behind a number of anecdotes that “prove” certain assertions.
Thomas Mulcair in his column this morning points out that JT's ineptness will be giving Canada a strong Reform-style majority:

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/20...n-incompetence
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  #8178  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 6:51 PM
LuluBobo LuluBobo is offline
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Ya I think a Tory majority at this point is inevitable. I don't think they cross the 50% of the vote, but 50% of the seats should be easy.

Maybe 75% chance Tory majority
24% chance Tory minority
1% chance something else
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  #8179  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 6:54 PM
thewave46 thewave46 is online now
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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark View Post
Well said, except that the idea that it’s a win for the local who owns their home is superficial at best. Sure, the value of their home increases, but if they take advantage of the hike in value and sell… what do they do next? It’s not like they can go down the street and buy another for substantially less… in fact they would be lucky if they could even find another place.
The ability to borrow against the inflated value of the home, or do a reverse mortgage are not superficial concepts.

Indeed, consumer spending has been partly propped up by HELOCs in this country.

Accessing several hundred thousand dollars of liquidity in one’s retirement golden years without selling the residence is quite possible.
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  #8180  
Old Posted May 17, 2024, 7:37 PM
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Innsertnamehere Innsertnamehere is online now
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Originally Posted by P'tit Renard View Post
Yep, and NBF doesn't expect the immigration limit to have any meaningful impact until 2025 or after:

the Liberal's response to last years insane, record-breaking population growth, which has been almost universally panned as absolutely insane policy by basically everyone across the political spectrum?

"Lets double it!"
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