Where the class of 2024 is looking for work

[iheartthed]

Handshake is a major jobs portal for college students seeking full time employment. They recently released a report about job trends for the class of 2024. There was a notable shift in job applications away from big cities this year compared to last, with the notable exception of New York City. New York saw a substantial increase in job applications from the class of 2024 compared to the class of 2023. Among big cities, the major Sun Belt cities in the southeast and Texas showed some of the biggest declines in job applicants between 2023 and 2024:

Increase in share of new college grad applicants in 2024 by city (% share of all applications in parenthesis)

1. New York (9.12%): +1.35 pts
2. Washington (3.01%): +0.52
3. Baltimore (0.77%): +0.13
4. Portland (0.68%): +0.1
5. Orlando (0.79%): +0.06
6. Tampa (1.24%): +0.03
7. Miami (1.21%): -0.03
8. Cincinnati (0.92%): -0.05
9. San Antonio (0.67%): -0.06
10. Sacramento (0.72%): -0.06
11. Detroit (0.89%): -0.07
12. St. Louis (0.81%): -0.14
13. San Francisco (2.58%): -0.16
14. Minneapolis (1.00%): -0.18
15. Chicago (4.80%): -0.19
16. Boston (2.92%): -0.2
17. Phoenix (1.10%): -0.22
18. Los Angeles (2.32%): -0.25
19. San Diego (0.95%): -0.27
20. Charlotte (1.35%): -0.27
21. Pittsburgh (0.86%): -0.28
22. Philadelphia (1.47%): -0.3
23. Austin (1.85%): -0.33
24. Dallas (3.01%): -0.35
25. Seattle (1.59%): -0.35
26. Houston (2.10%): -0.42
27. Denver (1.42%): -0.42
28. Atlanta (2.97%): -0.46

Full study located here: https://joinhandshake.com/network-tr...24-graduation/

Edit: Note that these percentage changes are job applications by city limits not metro area, but I listed the central cities of the 30 largest metros (minus Riverside).

[fleonzo]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Handshake is a major jobs portal for college students seeking full time employment. They recently released a report about job trends for the class of 2024. There was a notable shift in job applications away from big cities this year compared to last, with the notable exception of New York City. New York saw a substantial increase in job applications from the class of 2024 compared to the class of 2023. Among big cities, the major Sun Belt cities in the southeast and Texas showed some of the biggest declines in job applicants between 2023 and 2024:

Increase in share of new college grad applicants in 2024 by city

1. New York: 1.35 pts
2. Washington: 0.52
3. Baltimore: 0.13
4. Portland: 0.1
5. Orlando: 0.06
6. Tampa: 0.03
7. Miami: -0.03
8. Cincinnati: -0.05
9. San Antonio: -0.06
10. Sacramento: -0.06
11. Detroit: -0.07
12. St. Louis: -0.14
13. San Francisco: -0.16
14. Minneapolis: -0.18
15. Chicago: -0.19
16. Boston: -0.2
17. Phoenix: -0.22
18. Los Angeles: -0.25
19. San Diego: -0.27
20. Charlotte: -0.27
21. Pittsburgh: -0.28
22. Philadelphia: -0.3
23. Austin: -0.33
24. Dallas: -0.35
25. Seattle: -0.35
26. Houston: -0.42
27. Denver: -0.42
28. Atlanta: -0.46

Full study located here: https://joinhandshake.com/network-tr...24-graduation/

Edit: Note that these percentage changes are job applications by city limits not metro area, but I listed the central cities of the 30 largest metros (minus Riverside).

Is it just me or does it seem like there were only "6" cities on this list that had positive pts?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by fleonzo

Is it just me or does it seem like there were only "6" cities on this list that had positive pts?

There were increases in the central cities of smaller metros, but a clear trend of decline for large cities. You can see that by looking at the interactive map on the linked website.

[craigs]

Does that mean there are fewer graduates in the class of 2024 overall, or that fewer graduates are looking for jobs in the major urban job centers?

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

There were increases in the central cities of smaller metros, but a clear trend of decline for large cities. You can see that by looking at the interactive map on the linked website.

Which goes with the other thread about people fleeing big metros for smaller (more affordable) ones.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by craigs

Does that mean there are fewer graduates in the class of 2024 overall, or that fewer graduates are looking for jobs in the major urban job centers?

It ain't like there are jobs for them in rural areas, unless somebody dies or they want to get into agriculture.

[BnaBreaker]

Fuckin' New York, man... it's never gonna not be a thing... until the world is through.

[DCReid]

Unless we know the base figures, I don't think this list is telling us as much as people are surmising, especially for the smaller cities. I surmise NY and DC's figures are impressive because those cities are large and attract a lot of grads in any year. But for places like Portland, Tampa and Orlando, who knows? For example, maybe each city attracts 1,000 new grads, and this year they are each attracting 10% more or 1,100. But maybe Chicago, SF, and LA attract 10,000 grads last year and in 2024 they attracted 9,500 each or 5% less. Those cities are still doing more attractive than smaller cities in raw numbers, although the decrease is a worrying sign, especially since competitor cities of NYC and DC improved upon their totals.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by craigs

Does that mean there are fewer graduates in the class of 2024 overall, or that fewer graduates are looking for jobs in the major urban job centers?

No, this is just measuring the changes in the total share of where grads are applying.

[chris08876]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Unless we know the base figures, I don't think this list is telling us as much as people are surmising, especially for the smaller cities. I surmise NY and DC's figures are impressive because those cities are large and attract a lot of grads in any year. But for places like Portland, Tampa and Orlando, who knows? For example, maybe each city attracts 1,000 new grads, and this year they are each attracting 10% more or 1,100. But maybe Chicago, SF, and LA attract 10,000 grads last year and in 2024 they attracted 9,500 each or 5% less. Those cities are still doing more attractive than smaller cities in raw numbers, although the decrease is a worrying sign, especially since competitor cities of NYC and DC improved upon their totals.

If certain big cities can really focus on that housing issue and aid to drive COL down, you'd see those numbers increase even higher.

Chicago, LA, SF, NYC, DC... all are poppin' cities. People want to be there. Cost of living only serves to mitigate true LONG term potential and in some cases, negative city dynamics. The class of 2024 in a "dream" scenario doesn't want to be in the smaller and stale/boring regions, they want to be where the action is at. The superior economic nodes where the reward factor is there.

To think long term is to think about ways to make the buck go further for the common residents and continuous improvement for the top 10 cities.

I see a list in the first post and think, that should way higher for certain cities.

[austlar1]

The main thing this list tells me is that there aren't as many tech job openings as in past years. Lots of downsizing still happening, and much of that has taken place in tech branch office locations like Austin, Dallas, and Atlanta. Even a tech HQ city like Seattle is still feeling the crunch. I'm not seeing a long term trend emerging here.

[JManc]

Tech's heyday is over, at least for a while. Companies are running learner, with flatter management structures and are more demanding on productivity.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Unless we know the base figures, I don't think this list is telling us as much as people are surmising, especially for the smaller cities. I surmise NY and DC's figures are impressive because those cities are large and attract a lot of grads in any year. But for places like Portland, Tampa and Orlando, who knows? For example, maybe each city attracts 1,000 new grads, and this year they are each attracting 10% more or 1,100. But maybe Chicago, SF, and LA attract 10,000 grads last year and in 2024 they attracted 9,500 each or 5% less. Those cities are still doing more attractive than smaller cities in raw numbers, although the decrease is a worrying sign, especially since competitor cities of NYC and DC improved upon their totals.

Agreed. I dont think its alarming for SF , Chicago or LA.
DC and NYC are always gonna be different for this.

Theres a strange narrative going on to pump up the smaller cities for some reason lately.

[dktshb]

Originally Posted by craigs

Does that mean there are fewer graduates in the class of 2024 overall, or that fewer graduates are looking for jobs in the major urban job centers?

That is most likely it as there continues to be fewer and fewer college graduates as the years go by. There are less people of college age and fewer of them are bothering to go to college.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by dktshb

That is most likely it as there continues to be fewer and fewer college graduates as the years go by. There are less people of college age and fewer of them are bothering to go to college.

looks like a slight dip in 2022 after a 2021 peak, but really thats probably over exaggerated as its only fallen back to 2020 levels which are still high (i didn't find data for 2023). even if 2023 numbers are available and its a 2yr dip i dont think that long enough to call a trend especially when its still a high number of grads vs say the oughties.


https://educationdata.org/number-of-college-graduates

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by DCReid

Unless we know the base figures, I don't think this list is telling us as much as people are surmising, especially for the smaller cities. I surmise NY and DC's figures are impressive because those cities are large and attract a lot of grads in any year. But for places like Portland, Tampa and Orlando, who knows? For example, maybe each city attracts 1,000 new grads, and this year they are each attracting 10% more or 1,100. But maybe Chicago, SF, and LA attract 10,000 grads last year and in 2024 they attracted 9,500 each or 5% less. Those cities are still doing more attractive than smaller cities in raw numbers, although the decrease is a worrying sign, especially since competitor cities of NYC and DC improved upon their totals.

This was a measure of how job applications are allocated, meaning if you add up all of the shares for each city then it should total 100. The numbers that I originally posted shows how the share of applications changed year-over-year for the largest cities. If these numbers are indicative, there is definitely a shift in where grads are applying now versus a year ago.

I have updated the list to include the total share of job applications for each city in the original post. Here's the list of the percentage of job applications per city in 2024:

Percentage of job applications per city (year-over-year ranking change in parenthesis)

1. New York: 9.12% (no change)
2. Chicago: 4.8% (no change)
3. Washington: 3.01% (+6)
4. Dallas: 3.01% (+1)
5. Atlanta: 2.97% (-2)
6. Boston: 2.92% (-1)
7. San Francisco: 2.58% (-1)
8. Los Angeles: 2.32% (-1)
9. Houston: 2.1% (-1)
10. Austin: 1.85% (no change)
11. Seattle: 1.59% (no change)
12. Philadelphia: 1.47% (+1)
13. Denver: 1.42% (-1)
14. Charlotte: 1.35% (no change)
15. Tampa: 1.24% (+3)
16. Miami: 1.21% (no change)
17. Phoenix: 1.1% (-2)
18. Minneapolis: 1% (+1)
19. San Diego: 0.95% (-2)
20. Cincinnati: 0.92% (+1)
21. Detroit: 0.89% (1)
22. Pittsburgh: 0.86% (-2)
23. St. Louis: 0.81% (no change)
24. Orlando: 0.79% (+1)
25. Baltimore: 0.77% (+2)
26. Sacramento: 0.72% (-2)
27. Portland: 0.68% (+1)
28. San Antonio: 0.67% (-3)

I don't think they published how many applications there were in total, so this isn't definitive proof that total job applications to cities that lost pace have declined. But it does show a shift in the places where job seekers are looking for work.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Edit: Note that these percentage changes are job applications by city limits not metro area

And that kinda makes it worthless, as city limits don't allow for apples-to-apples comparisons.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

Except all 3 major Florida cities made the top ten. And San Antonio. Also Portland popular again, yay!

As per my post above, San Antonio which is known for having really large city limits is overperforming in this data set, while cities like San Francisco who are a tiny part of the area they anchor, are underperforming on paper with this metric (as grads applying for jobs in Mountain View, Palo Alto or Cupertino simply aren't existing, from this data set's PoV...)

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by lio45

And that kinda makes it worthless, as city limits don't allow for apples-to-apples comparisons.

It is an apples-to-apples comparison. It is a measurement of how major cities performed last year against how major cities performed this year.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

It is an apples-to-apples comparison. It is a measurement of how major cities performed last year against how major cities performed this year.

I figured someone would say that and I should have preemptively precised that I was talking about the percentages, not the yearly variation of them. For the yearly variation, yes, city limits isn't THAT bad. (It's just not going to capture variation outside city limits, so San Francisco (City Limits) isn't going to look as good when tech rises, and it isn't going to look as bad when tech crashes, for example).