Where Is The Rust Belt?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by badrunner

It's only 40 minutes / 30 miles to the Loop by interstate, a little bit closer than I thought. You'd be living a totally car-oriented life in either city so having more things within driving distance would become the overriding factor. And some people just can't do small towns. Any shitty exurb wasteland > small town.

Yeah, I'm not convinced there is a huge quality of life difference between the two cities, but Gary will almost certainly gentrify much sooner than Flint because of its location. All Gary needs is for people to start getting priced out of Chicago. Barring some societal collapse, it seems inevitable that Chicago will one day reach the point where the core is so expensive that it pushes gentrification to satellite cities, and Gary will be a prime beneficiary. But Flint has no bigger city to sponge off of in that way.

[Crawford]

The problem is that Gary is the wrong directional from Chicago. Chicagoland is extremely bifurcated. There's plenty of blight/low value RE between the Loop and Gary so it would take a looong time for demand to reach Gary.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The problem is that Gary is the wrong directional from Chicago. Chicagoland is extremely bifurcated. There's plenty of blight/low value RE between the Loop and Gary so it would take a looong time for demand to reach Gary.

Agreed, the only areas of Gary that make sense for "long" commuters are the beachfront SFH neighborhoods (as SIGSEGV shared), which AFAIK can't be found on the NW side of the IN/IL state line.

For anything else, you can find something as cheap and much closer. No sense living in a dirt cheap Gary SFH when you can live in a blighted 'hood of Chicago and have a significantly shorter commute.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Crawford

The problem is that Gary is the wrong directional from Chicago. Chicagoland is extremely bifurcated. There's plenty of blight/low value RE between the Loop and Gary so it would take a looong time for demand to reach Gary.

A long time is a lot sooner than never, which is what Flint's timeline is for benefitting from urban spillover.

Also, there's not much in the way of a potential urban satellite north or west of Chicago that could absorb overflow from the city. If there's an urban boom in Chicago any time soon, it's hard to imagine it not going to the south.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Yeah, I'm not convinced there is a huge quality of life difference between the two cities, but Gary will almost certainly gentrify much sooner than Flint because of its location. All Gary needs is for people to start getting priced out of Chicago. Barring some societal collapse, it seems inevitable that Chicago will one day reach the point where the core is so expensive that it pushes gentrification to satellite cities, and Gary will be a prime beneficiary. But Flint has no bigger city to sponge off of in that way.

Detroit MSA has been growing faster than Chicago. It’s hard to believe that will be people trying to leave Chicago and closer suburbs to feed Gary. In fact, it’s more likely to people move closer to Chicago emptying it out even faster.

Regarding Flint, all the minor divisions located on the 1/3 southern most part of Genesee County posted a healthy growth indicating they’re already turning into Detroit’s exurbs.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Detroit MSA has been growing faster than Chicago. It’s hard to believe that will be people trying to leave Chicago and closer suburbs to feed Gary. In fact, it’s more likely to people move closer to Chicago emptying it out even faster.

Regarding Flint, all the minor divisions located on the 1/3 southern most part of Genesee County posted a healthy growth indicating they’re already turning into Detroit’s exurbs.

Flint isn't in the Detroit MSA. Even if the city of Detroit was booming, which it is absolutely not, the likelihood of that overflowing to Flint would be near zero. Downtown Detroit to downtown Flint is over 70 miles. That's almost the same distance from lower Manhattan to Philadelphia's downtown. Gary is much closer to Chicago, and Chicago is much bigger than Detroit. A sustained uptick in Chicago could much more easily spillover to Gary.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by The North One

Preferring a total wasteland like Gary because there's a 2 hour train commute to the Loop in a day is absurd. I mean go ahead and knock yourself out though.

A one-hour, one-way commute into a global job center like the Loop may seem outrageous to you, but it isn't to millions of suburban commuters in metropolitan areas like New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Washington, and the Bay Area who already make trips like that because it means they can have good jobs and afford their homes.

Would there be better affordable locales from which to make that train trip into the Loop? Sure, but we're working specifically with Gary (and Flint).

If I had to choose between the two admittedly shitty cities, I would choose Gary. While Flint is in nominally better shape, and I would prefer Michigan's politics to Indiana's, ultimately I'd go with Gary because of its close proximity to all that Chicago has to offer.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Flint isn't in the Detroit MSA. Even if the city of Detroit was booming, which it is absolutely not, the likelihood of that overflowing to Flint would be near zero. Downtown Detroit to downtown Flint is over 70 miles. That's almost the same distance from lower Manhattan to Philadelphia's downtown. Gary is much closer to Chicago, and Chicago is much bigger than Detroit. A sustained uptick in Chicago could much more easily spillover to Gary.

I don't see how that is possible. Gary is a bombed out former industry town with little to no redeeming qualities to warrant massive investment to (re)develop and just far enough from Chicago. In Houston, there are entire sections in the city limits that are blighted, neglected for 30-40 years and hemorrhaging population while the rest of the city is booming.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

I don't see how that is possible. Gary is a bombed out former industry town with little to no redeeming qualities to warrant massive investment to (re)develop and just far enough from Chicago. In Houston, there are entire sections in the city limits that are blighted, neglected for 30-40 years and hemorrhaging population while the rest of the city is booming.

If Chicago was as big as Houston, Gary would be in the city limits. It's not that far from Chicago.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If Chicago was as big as Houston, Gary would be in the city limits. It's not that far from Chicago.

Crossing county lines is one thing, but I'm not aware of any US municipalities whose incorporated limits cross state borders.

Regardless of how big Chicago might've theoretically annexed itself to, it was never gonna get Gary.

State borders may often be quite arbitrary, but they do have real world consequences.

And as the crow flies, downtown Gary is 25 miles from the loop.

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If Chicago was as big as Houston, Gary would be in the city limits. It's not that far from Chicago.

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

And as the crow flies, downtown Gary is 25 miles from the loop.

LA as well.

That's about the same distance as some far flung areas of the SFV like Woodland Hills or Chatsworth to DTLA.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If Chicago was as big as Houston, Gary would be in the city limits. It's not that far from Chicago.

Gary to Chicago Loop is ~30 miles. Houston is huge but there are areas rotting away within 5-10 miles from other areas with massive growth and development.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Crossing county lines is one thing, but I'm not aware of any US municipalities whose incorporated limits cross state borders.

Regardless of how big Chicago might've theoretically annexed itself to, it was never gonna get Gary.

State borders may often be quite arbitrary, but they do have real world consequences.

And as the crow flies, downtown Gary is 25 miles from the loop.

Municipalities cannot cross state borders but that wasn't the point. The point is that Gary isn't far enough from Chicago to be unaffected by urban spillover from Chicago, should a future Chicago grow enough to push people farther away. White Plains is roughly the same distance to Midtown Manhattan as Gary is to the Loop. White Plains benefits from urban spillover from NYC. Jersey City, Newark, Hoboken, etc., are closer than 25 miles, but they are in another state and still benefit from urban spillover from Manhattan. Jersey City has benefitted more from it than large swathes of areas inside of NYC itself.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

Municipalities cannot cross state borders but that wasn't the point. The point is that Gary isn't far enough from Chicago to be unaffected by urban spillover from Chicago, should a future Chicago grow enough to push people farther away. White Plains is roughly the same distance to Midtown Manhattan as Gary is to the Loop. White Plains benefits from urban spillover from NYC. Jersey City, Newark, Hoboken, etc., are closer than 25 miles, but they are in another state and still benefit from urban spillover from Manhattan. Jersey City has benefitted more from it than large swathes of areas inside of NYC itself.

JC is literally across the river from Manhattan and there are many redeeming qualities about it and other cities like Newark and Hoboken for people to want to live and work there. White Plains is a nice city located in a beautiful area. What does Gary have to offer? There is no lakefront and the rest of the city looks like a set from Fallout.

[dave8721]

Downtown Fort Lauderdale is 28 miles from Downtown Miami and its experiencing a spillover boom right now (helped by the Brightline rail connection).

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by JManc

JC is literally across the river from Manhattan and there are many redeeming qualities about it and other cities like Newark and Hoboken for people to want to live and work there. White Plains is a nice city located in a beautiful area. What does Gary have to offer? There is no lakefront and the rest of the city looks like a set from Fallout.

Chicago doesn't have a satellite across the river from the loop. Gary is pretty much the first urban satellite you'll encounter that isn't in the city of Chicago itself. As I said, if there is urban spillover from Chicago then Gary would be a likely beneficiary. If you think it's likely to go somewhere else then where do you think it's likely to go?

Also, Newark was shorthand for severe urban decay until like half a decade ago. Most people probably still think of it as a post-industrial bombed out satellite city.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

If you think it's likely to go somewhere else then where do you think it's likely to go?

Uhhh.... Evanston.

It is:

WAY closer in to the city than Gary

WAY more urban than Gary

WAY more desirable than Gary

Actually has been experiencing urban spillover from the city.



I'll never say never with Gary, but it has a TALL mountain to climb. It is nowhere remotely close to being where Newark was half a decade ago.

[edale]

NW Indiana is kind of its own thing, and Gary is just one city in that area. The idea that no one living in Gary goes to the gym or eats out at a restaurant because there aren't any downtown is absurd. There are desirable communities in NW Indiana like Crown Point so people don't have to go into Chicago to access nice things, though the option to easily go into the city is no doubt a huge bonus for NW Indiana residents. Gary can be thought of more as a bad neighborhood in NW Indiana's sprawling landscape of suburbs and small towns.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Uhhh.... Evanston.

It is:

WAY closer in to the city than Gary

WAY more urban than Gary

WAY more desirable than Gary

Actually has been experiencing urban spillover from the city.



I'll never say never with Gary, but it has a TALL mountain to climb. It is nowhere remotely close to being where Newark was half a decade ago.

I should have caveated that I was already considering Evanston in this discussion. But after Evanston where else?

Anyway, this is all a tangent about whether Gary is more likely to gentrify than Flint, not about how likely Gary is to gentrify. I think it's as obvious that Gary is far more likely to gentrify than Flint as it is that Flint's streetview looks better than Gary's. I just don't see the fundamentals for a robust Flint recovery. Gary's are much easier to see.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by JManc

There is no lakefront and the rest of the city looks like a set from Fallout.

The miller beach area of Gary has miles of lakefront beach, including the wonderful Marquette park public beach.

It might shock quite a few formers here, but it really is pretty nice, IF you can look past the giant steel mill nextdoor.

But that whole part of Gary east of the steel mill feels very detached and removed from the core of the city, which mainly stretches south from the steel mill.