Where Is The Rust Belt?

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by The North One

Pittsburgh is smallish and went through utterly massive renewal/demolition projects for it's size. I would say that's why it seems like it has less blight.

All of the cities being discussed here had severe amounts of "slum clearance/urban renewal" back in the bad old days.

It's hard to readily quantify the relative degree of that severity from city to city.

But we don't have to, because (IMO) the household % loss serves as a reasonable enough proxy for the degree of urban blight/decay/abandonment (in aggregate) that we see in these cities today.

But we should also frame that within the context that the larger cities (let's say those that peaked above 500K) amassed WAY more urban gravity than the Gary's and the Flint's of the rustbelt, such that most of their downtowns/central cores are in much better shape these days than those of the smaller down and out rustbelt cities.

[The North One]

Downtown Flint actually isn't that bad at all. It's got a nice main street and they've renovated lots of buildings and even added some infill projects recently. It's light-years above Gary which has an essentially non-existent downtown.

[Steely Dan]

^ yeah, that's true.

Flint being ~60 miles out from Detroit means that it's way more "stand-alone" than places like ESL (directly across from downtown St. Louis) or Gary (only 25 miles out from downtown Chicago) which are in much stronger orbits around their central cities.

I don't know Youngstown at all, but perhaps being ~60 miles from both Cleveland and Pittsburgh means that it's downtown is more like Flint than Gary/ESL?

Niagara Falls, NY is about 16 miles out from downtown Buffalo, so it'd probably be more like Gary/ESL if not for the falls-based tourism, which at least gives it "something".

[Crawford]

Flint's core is pretty terrible. They demolished their largest office building. If not for the state & regents in Ann Arbor subsiding a small state university, it would be a wasteland. Only Saginaw is worse among MI cores.

It's maybe less "scary" looking than Gary, but I don't see it as meaningfully more vibrant. Gary has a rail hub and convention center, at least. Flint has maybe a half dozen restaurants/bars, so I guess that's something.

[The North One]

lol it's a night and day difference, we can see it with our own eyes.

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.0152732,...CHoE3m3L3sQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@41.5969746,...9df0jz0YbdQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu

Gary looks like an actual wasteland, anything that isn't urban prairie is abandoned. There's literally nothing there... Flint looks like an average small city core main-street.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

It's maybe less "scary" looking than Gary, but I don't see it as meaningfully more vibrant. Gary has a rail hub and convention center, at least. Flint has maybe a half dozen restaurants/bars, so I guess that's something.

Google maps shows 13 restaurants along the 6 block long main drag of Saginaw St in downtown Flint.

It shows only 1 restaurant along the 5 block long main drag of Broadway in downtown Gary.

A quick google drive down each of those stretches reveals a pretty stark difference in both the consistency of the built environment and the number of occupied storefronts.

[FromSD]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Quite true.

This familiar chart is instructive of your point.

It's interesting that St. Louis and Detroit tie when it comes to biggest percentage population loss. But when it comes to median household size, Detroit has the biggest (2.47), while St. Louis has the smallest (2.0). Why the big difference? More immigrant families in Detroit? Larger percentage of African American households in Detroit? Though are African American household sizes even larger than average these days?

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by The North One

lol it's a night and day difference, we can see it with our own eyes.

https://www.google.com/maps/@43.0152732,...CHoE3m3L3sQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu

https://www.google.com/maps/@41.5969746,...9df0jz0YbdQ!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu

Gary looks like an actual wasteland, anything that isn't urban prairie is abandoned. There's literally nothing there... Flint looks like an average small city core main-street.

Yeah, Flint's core looks way more vibrant and lively, and it's not particularly close, at all.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by The North One

Flint looks like an average small city core main-street.

Absurd. Flint is undoubtedly one of the most troubled cities in the developed world. Its core is legit terrible, and RE is almost worthless. Worst schools in the state, highest violent crime in the state, etc.

I don't know what people are seeing that makes Gary somehow obviously more troubled, but in any case, it's essentially a battle between two crippled 90-yo hobos.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't know what people are seeing that makes Gary somehow obviously more troubled

Along the two respective main drags of their downtowns, Gary has way more empty lots, and of the buildings that do remain in Gary, they are in more decrepit shape and almost all storefronts are vacant.

It's not even close from a quick visual examination via Google maps streetview.




When was the last time you had an eye exam?

Cuz everyone else here can see the difference plain as day.



And if you wanna go another step down from Gary, check out downtown ESL on streetview.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Absurd. Flint is undoubtedly one of the most troubled cities in the developed world. Its core is legit terrible, and RE is almost worthless. Worst schools in the state, highest violent crime in the state, etc.

I don't know what people are seeing that makes Gary somehow obviously more troubled, but in any case, it's essentially a battle between two crippled 90-yo hobos.

I don't know what you get out of exaggerating the hell out of how supposedly bad Flint is. But the reality on the ground is pretty clearly and objectively not the case. Obviously the city has many troubles but there's a lot of way worse cities in this country alone. Go argue about it with the wall.

[Emprise du Lion]

Originally Posted by FromSD

It's interesting that St. Louis and Detroit tie when it comes to biggest percentage population loss. But when it comes to median household size, Detroit has the biggest (2.47), while St. Louis has the smallest (2.0). Why the big difference? More immigrant families in Detroit? Larger percentage of African American households in Detroit? Though are African American household sizes even larger than average these days?

It's possible the bolded is part of it, but I would also say that a large part of it has to do with students and young professionals. For persons 25 or older, 38.6% of St. Louis' population has a bachelors or higher vs 16.9% of Detroit's population. Saint Louis University, Harris-Stowe University, and a large portion of WashU are also inside of St. Louis' city limits.

[Emprise du Lion]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

And if you wanna go another step down from Gary, check out downtown ESL on streetview.

What's left of it, anyway.
https://www.google.com/maps/@38.6186892,-90.1582355,811a,35y,39.2t/data=!3m1!1e3?entry=ttu

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Along the two respective main drags of their downtowns, Gary has way more empty lots, and of the buildings that do remain in Gary, they are in more decrepit shape and almost all storefronts are vacant.

I don't see it. Flint demolished its biggest building. There's essentially nothing in core Flint outside of a shrinking state-supported college and a few subsidized storefronts. It's mostly vacant land or underutilized parking lots, same as Gary. If Gary decided to subsidize a few storefronts as in Flint, that wouldn't move the needle.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't see it.

Then nothing left to do but agree to disagree, because the visual difference between the two main drags is clear as day to me (and others).

[Doady]

Gary even in 2023 is not even close to Flint in 2022. This thread is becoming a waste of time.

[iheartthed]

Those few blocks of Flint do look better than the ones posted of Gary, but Flint is the center of a half million person metro and Gary is a peripheral town on the edge of a 9 million person metro. I think it's a HUGE stretch to say that Flint is average. It is probably in the worst shape of any central city in its population class.

[cabasse]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't see it. Flint demolished its biggest building. There's essentially nothing in core Flint outside of a shrinking state-supported college and a few subsidized storefronts. It's mostly vacant land or underutilized parking lots, same as Gary. If Gary decided to subsidize a few storefronts as in Flint, that wouldn't move the needle.

genesee towers was like half parking deck - it was only a 10 story building all in all.

flint looks much better than gary. flint's missing a couple of teeth, gary is missing almost all its teeth.

[craigs]

I checked out both links and Gary is an order of magnitude worse than Flint.

[JManc]

Yeah, definitely not seeing where Flint is worse than Gary after 5 seconds of looking at those Google street views. Flint is depressing, Gary is post apocalyptic.