US Census Bureau data for Austin and other cities - Page 31

The ATX · #**601** Posted **Nov 22, 2023, 4:07 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by gillynova

GoldenBoot, what are San Antonio's numbers looking like? Will Austin's MSA pass it sometime soon?

Ha. Don't pose that question in the S.A. forum.

GoldenBoot · #**602** Posted **Nov 22, 2023, 6:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The ATX

Ha. Don't pose that question in the S.A. forum.

Yes. That would be a really bad idea!

San Antonio MSA:

July 1, 2022 - 2.655 million
July 1, 2023 - 2.695 million (algorithmic program estimate)
July 1, 2024 - 2.735 million (algorithmic program estimate)

I anticipate Austin's MSA will surpass San Antonio's MSA around 2030 or so (when both are roughly 3 million). This target may change based on forthcoming official estimates (for 2023+) by the US Census Bureau. The official July 1, 2023 estimate should be released this coming spring.

etmav · #**603** Posted **Feb 11, 2024, 4:27 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBoot

Yes. That would be a really bad idea!

San Antonio MSA:

July 1, 2022 - 2.655 million
July 1, 2023 - 2.695 million (algorithmic program estimate)
July 1, 2024 - 2.735 million (algorithmic program estimate)

I anticipate Austin's MSA will surpass San Antonio's MSA around 2030 or so (when both are roughly 3 million). This target may change based on forthcoming official estimates (for 2023+) by the US Census Bureau. The official July 1, 2023 estimate should be released this coming spring.

I have a question regarding Austin and Ft Worth city proper populations. Googling the population of Texas cities show various results. There is one that show Ft Worth 2024 population has surpassed Austin. Does anyone know the correct figures. Thanks

Lobotomizer · #**604** Posted **Feb 11, 2024, 3:45 PM**

The only "official" estimates come from the US Census Bureau.

The latest estimates are from July 1, 2022.

Austin - 974,447

Fort Worth - 956,709

The July 1, 2023 estimates for cities should be released in May of this year.

Jdawgboy · #**605** Posted **Feb 11, 2024, 4:36 PM**

I'm sorry but I refuse to accept Austin is under a million city proper at this point when the city's own Demographic Department had us just over a million a couple of years ago.

The ATX · #**606** Posted **Feb 11, 2024, 5:23 PM**

Several areas of the City could vote on de-annexation in May with a loss of maybe 8K to the City population.

https://communityimpact.com/austin/s...y-this-spring/

ATX2030 · #**607** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 1:30 PM**

These were the fastest-growing counties in Texas in 2023, according to new Census Bureau estimates

by: Christopher Adams
Posted: Mar 14, 2024 / 07:30 AM CDT
Updated: Mar 14, 2024 / 07:33 AM CDT

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/thes...eau-estimates/

US Census Bureau

March 14, 2024

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/pres...ains-2023.html

Echostatic · #**608** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 4:45 PM**

The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA is now the 26th largest in the United States, with a population of 2,473,275. That marks a population gain of 50,105 from 2022 to 2023. The five counties grew as follows:

Bastrop: 106,395 to 110,778 | +4,383 | +4.12%
Caldwell: 47,849 to 49,859 | + 2,010 | + 4.20%
Hays: 269,103 to 280,486 | +11,383 | +4.23%
Travis: 1,327,550 to 1,334,961 | +7,411 | +0.56%
Williamson: 672,273 to 697,191 | +24,918 | +3.71%

The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA remained the 24th largest in the United States, with a population of 2,703,999. That marks a population gain of 48,071 from 2022 to 2023.

Lobotomizer · #**609** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 5:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Echostatic

The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA is now the 26th largest in the United States, with a population of 2,473,275. That marks a population gain of 50,105 from 2022 to 2023. The five counties grew as follows:

Bastrop: 106,395 to 110,778 | +4,383 | +4.12%
Caldwell: 47,849 to 49,859 | + 2,010 | + 4.20%
Hays: 269,103 to 280,486 | +11,383 | +4.23%
Travis: 1,327,550 to 1,334,961 | +7,411 | +0.56%
Williamson: 672,273 to 697,191 | +24,918 | +3.71%

The San Antonio-New Braunfels MSA remained the 24th largest in the United States, with a population of 2,703,999. That marks a population gain of 48,071 from 2022 to 2023.

Travis County's population growth has fallen off a cliff. Less than 15% of the metro's population growth occurred in Travis County, while just a hair under 50% occurred in Williamson County! Those projections of Wilco surpassing Travis longterm don't seem so preposterous now.

Lobotomizer · #**610** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 5:21 PM**

The share of growth between 2022 and 2023:

Williamson - 49.7%
Hays - 22.7%
Travis - 14.8%
Bastrop - 8.8%
Caldwell - 4.0%

drummer · #**611** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 6:45 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

The share of growth between 2022 and 2023:

Williamson - 49.7%
Hays - 22.7%
Travis - 14.8%
Bastrop - 8.8%
Caldwell - 4.0%

It makes sense. So much growth has been north and northwest. I predict that we will see more in Travis especially once Samsung, etc., is completed - especially in Manor. Williamson County will have even more, of course, as will Bastrop County - due to 130 and outward arteries like 79, 290, and 71.

I'm gonna pay close attention to Hays County. The growth between SA and Austin is only going to increase.

From the KXAN article, I was surprised by Blanco County having the greatest % growth, but then I was reminded that it was from 12K-13K. Makes sense. It will be interesting to watch Burnet and Blanco counties after the completion of the Y interchange to see if there are any ripple effects there. Burnet has the added benefit of 29 with all the growth in Liberty Hill (which is right on the Williamson County side of the line with Burnet County).

The ATX · #**612** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 6:51 PM**

With that Travis Co. number being relatively flat, Austin proper is not going to gain much when the City numbers come out. Austin may get passed by Jacksonville and drop out of the list of the 10 most populated cities.

On a brighter note, it looks like Austin was the fastest growing large metro for the 14th year in a row just beating out Orlando by less than a tenth of a percent.

EDIT: I read an article saying Austin's streak as the fastest growing large Metro was broken. But it didn't say which Metro came out on top. I don't have time to do all the math stuff right now to figure it out.

Lobotomizer · #**613** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 7:14 PM**

County share of metro total over the years:

2000

Travis - 65.0%
Williamson - 20.0%
Hays - 7.8%
Bastrop - 4.6%
Caldwell - 2.6%

2010

Travis - 59.7%
Williamson - 24.6%
Hays - 9.2%
Bastrop - 4.3%
Caldwell - 2.2%

2020

Travis - 56.5%
Williamson - 26.7%
Hays - 10.6%
Bastrop - 4.3%
Caldwell - 2.0%

2023 Estimate

Travis - 54.0%
Williamson - 28.2%
Hays - 11.3%
Bastrop - 4.5%
Caldwell - 2.0%

Lobotomizer · #**614** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 7:17 PM**

Based off of the trends above the majority of the Austin metro will reside outside of Travis County by the 2030 census.

JoninATX · #**615** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 7:20 PM**

Here's a list of Austin metro surrounding counties.

• Burnet County: 52,507 to 53,991 | +1,424 | +2.71%
• Blanco County: 12,411 to 13,048 | +637 | +5.13%
• Fayette County: 24,934 to 25,474 | +540 | +2.17%
• Lee County: 17,971 to 18,240 | +269 | +1.5%
• Milam County: 25,622 to 25,951 | +329 | +1.28%

Looks like the Austin area is have a big impact on growth outside the region.

Lobotomizer · #**616** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 7:25 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by drummer

I'm gonna pay close attention to Hays County. The growth between SA and Austin is only going to increase.

Yep. If Hays County ever manages to pull a Samsung or Tesla type project that county will go bonkers. It's already growing very quickly, but it could follow Wilco's trajectory with a major employer putting down roots.

Novacek · #**617** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 8:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

Travis County's population growth has fallen off a cliff. Less than 15% of the metro's population growth occurred in Travis County, while just a hair under 50% occurred in Williamson County! Those projections of Wilco surpassing Travis longterm don't seem so preposterous now.

We've now had several years in a row with pretty healthy housing production in Travis, with pretty minimal population gain.

Some of it is coming to a healthier vacancy rate, and there's household composition changes. But you start to wonder how accurate these estimates are.

Lobotomizer · #**618** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 8:17 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Novacek

We've now had several years in a row with pretty healthy housing production in Travis, with pretty minimal population gain.

Some of it is coming to a healthier vacancy rate, and there's household composition changes. But you start to wonder how accurate these estimates are.

True, but I believe that it is primarly due to household size, which is a phenomenon occurring in urban areas all across the US. You can see signs of it with AISD's shrinking student population.

Houses where a family of four used to live now has an elderly widow living alone, or a childless couple. Families with kids are leaving Austin, and Travis County to live in Kyle, Leander, and Georgetown.

You may disagree, but the perception is lower COL, better schools, less crime, cleaner, etc.

Lobotomizer · #**619** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 8:39 PM**

I want to add I think this is terrible, and does not bode well for the City of Austin in the coming decades.

As it increasingly becomes a lesser influence in the region, and very possibly at odds with it's neighbors which outnumber it I fear Austin may find it difficult to prosper.

Institutions such as Capital Metro, or Austin Community College which should grow with the region may be shunned due to their association with the city. Things like this can perpetuate, and lead to a very bitter divide between the city and suburbs.

Hopefully I am just being overly pessimistic. I really want to see Austin proper continue to prosper, and be a place where people love to live and visit.

GoldenBoot · #**620** Posted **Mar 14, 2024, 8:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lobotomizer

I want to add I think this is terrible, and does not bode well for the City of Austin in the coming decades.

As it increasingly becomes a lesser influence in the region, and very possibly at odds with it's neighbors which outnumber it I fear Austin may find it difficult to prosper.

Institutions such as Capital Metro, or Austin Community College which should grow with the region may be shunned due to their association with the city. Things like this can perpetuate, and lead to a very bitter divide between the city and suburbs.

Hopefully I am just being overly pessimistic. I really want to see Austin proper continue to prosper, and be a place where people love to live and visit.

Really?!? Yes. You are being waaaaaay too pessimistic, my friend.

Just name a metro and there is more than a 95% chance that its central city/hub has less population than the aggregate of its suburbs. This is extremely common. Not just in the U.S., but, world wide.

Cap Metro and ACC are not solely funded by those who live within the City of Austin. Neither are they managed by the City. They're districts and said districts encompass not just the City of Austin, but, some communities outside of Austin. Both can grow if their leaders can convince more communities to join their districts.