Statistics Canada Reports II

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

I get it that child rearing isn’t for everyone, but there is a catch 22 to this.

At a time when having families with multiple children was the norm, there was leeway for those who chose not to do so.

When the norm becomes not have my kids, or a critical mass of childless household is reached, it does become a problem.

An interesting balancing act between the individual and the society / species, and recently we have tipped the scale, which makes lifestyles such as yours more under scrutiny.

And as the societal impacts become potentially more acute, I'd expect the discussions to become progressively more intense.

(I say that, but I don't even think that countries facing demographic collapse like Japan or Italy are even there yet in terms of this "choice" being stigmatized.)

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Acajack

And as the societal impacts become potentially more acute, I'd expect the discussions to become progressively more intense.

(I say that, but I don't even think that countries facing demographic collapse like Japan or Italy are even there yet in terms of this "choice" being stigmatized.)

China tried what is essentially the OPPOSITE of this, didn't they? How'd that go? (I agree, we're not anywhere near there, lol)

Originally Posted by thewave46

I have a strong bias against sanctimony as the driving reason to have kids.

Originally Posted by Niwell

The "childfree" crowd can be very annoying, but I absolutely bristle when people assume that the reason a couple in their 40s (or whatever) doesn't have kids due to selfishness. Nobody needs to know the background of what specific circumstances led to that situation, whether it be by choice or in many cases other factors

Agreed.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Perpetuation of the ant-colony would be pretty far down my list of motivations for having kids. You're not making this sound any more fulfilling.

In Hungary, the childless (by choice, I assume?) are already being made to pay more, at least indirectly. The money for those programs and the shortfall from tax-free families needs to be made up somehow.

I think we're a long way from that in Canada though, and we'll likely all be dead before we see a greater fiscal rebalancing between those with kids and those without. If ever. (How our immigration policies evolve will play a big role in the future direction this will take.)

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

(I say that, but I don't even think that countries facing demographic collapse like Japan or Italy are even there yet in terms of this "choice" being stigmatized.)

I saw stats on Japan the other night. I don't remember the numbers exactly, but last year the country had something like 800,000 births but, something like 1.8M deaths. Japan's population is shrinking by nearly 1M people per year.

This sort of population loss is unsustainable in the long run, and is doubly worse in an insular ethnostate like Japan that has highly restricted immigration.

[thewave46]

Decree 770 and the one child policy are both distasteful to myself in about equal measure as huge overreaches of government into the personal lives of people.

Perhaps we should re-envision the assumptions of our economic system in light of the likely lower growth rate.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Again... inaccurate presumption. Careful. I HAVE been a parent.
.

I definitely won't pry for more personal information here, but this does appear contradictory in the context of some other stuff you've posted here.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I definitely won't pry for more personal information here, but this does appear contradictory in the context of some other stuff you've posted here.

It's OK. I don't mind. I was a step-parent for a while, to a gloriously smart, cute and funny girl. Committed to the role 100% and did find it rewarding, but ultimately the relationship failed before adoption could happen. Have since reverted to my "I'm perfectly happy like this" ways without regret. Living is learning.

[niwell]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Decree 770 and the one child policy are both distasteful to myself in about equal measure as huge overreaches of government into the personal lives of people.

Perhaps we should re-envision the assumptions of our economic system in light of the likely lower growth rate.

Agreed. At some point this seems like an inevitability, though it's not going to be an easy sell.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I saw stats on Japan the other night. I don't remember the numbers exactly, but last year the country had something like 800,000 births but, something like 1.8M deaths. Japan's population is shrinking by nearly 1M people per year.

This sort of population loss is unsustainable in the long run, and is doubly worse in an insular ethnostate like Japan that has highly restricted immigration.

Hungary has tried the carrot, with some success it seems.

So far, no one (not even Japan) has really tried the stick. (Except of course China but with the reverse goal - as Nashe said.)

Our societies are very oriented towards individual freedoms. Even Japan is to some degree.

It'd be very hard to use the stick. I can't see it at this point but one doesn't know what the future holds.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Hungary has tried the carrot, with some success it seems.

So far, no one (not even Japan) has really tried the stick. (Except of course China but with the reverse goal - as Nashe said.)

Our societies are very oriented towards individual freedoms. Even Japan is to some degree.

It'd be very hard to use the stick. I can't see it at this point but one doesn't know what the future holds.

Romania tried the stick with Decree 770.

It was not an overwhelming success, and was partially blamed for the relative violence of the fall of Communism in that country.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by thewave46

Romania tried the stick with Decree 770.

It was not an overwhelming success, and was partially blamed for the relative violence of the fall of Communism in that country.

It's true that the Roman Catholic church tried the stick in Quebec for about 150 years.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's true that the Roman Catholic church tried the stick in Quebec for about 150 years.

That's a different era and context, though.

The Romanian policy was one designed for modernity, highly educated people, and wide availability of contraception.

I still view it as a massive overreach and its outcome was probably worse than just letting people self-select with respect to their fertility.

[hipster duck]

Not really adding anything new to the discussion here...

Having children is a deeply personal choice, and nobody should be shamed for having or not having kids at a certain point in their life. If people still want to be "self-indulgent" by age 40, they probably shouldn't be parents, anyway.

Objectively, the planet will be better if there are fewer people on it.

Our economic system that relies on constant growth may not be able to sustain this, but so be it...it's getting very long in the tooth and if we are too braindead to come up with viable alternatives then maybe necessity will force us.

[lio45]

I have no kids, but I’m willing to do “my civic duty” and pay once, out of pocket specifically — in addition to the taxes I already pay — for 2.3 one-way plane tickets from South Asia to Canada

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

I have no kids, but I’m willing to do “my civic duty” and pay once, out of pocket specifically — in addition to the taxes I already pay — for 2.3 one-way plane tickets from South Asia to Canada

Doesn't count unless you agree to house and feed them for 18 years, and to pay for their university education.

[lio45]

Why would intendured servants need any education, let alone university-level?

As for the housing part, I suppose I could spare a corner of a basement somewhere for them.

[theman23]

FWIW The average woman in Canada wants 2.2 children. They have 1.4.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Fertility rate (USA) 1.64 births per woman (2020)
Fertility rate (Canada) 1.40 births per woman (2020)



Canada's is absolutely lower (and has been for 4 decades), but if you check the statistics over time, the trend line is pretty similar.

The general trend lines are similar, but interestingly you can really see a sharp crash in recent years on Canada's line, vs. the more gradual decline in the US. This would certainly suggest that we are experiencing some specific, unique pressures (ie. housing crisis) that are impacting our TFR beyond the broader sociocultural dynamics.


Anyway, I've posted this before, but it's worth noting that Canada's reported "desired" fertility rate is about 2.2, while our actual rate is only 1.4. Clearly people want to have more kids, but due to various barriers are ultimately having less (whether by choice or not): https://thehub.ca/2023-03-14/counting-up...alling-short-of-their-fertility-desires/. We can't force people to procreate, but we can make it easier for them to have the families they actually do want.

[hipster duck]

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[Acajack]

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