Atlantic Canadian Politics Thread

[lirette]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

JT taking a walk in the snow might make some difference, yes, but it will have to happen quickly so that a new leader can establish him/herself.

A new leader would have to be somebody not too closely associated with JT, so, not a senior cabinet minister. This excludes Chrystia or Dominic. Anita might be able to pass muster in this regard. Mark Carney is viewed by many as the saviour, but, I think he will come across as a cold fish technocrat and might do poorly in an election campaign.

Unless PP does something stupid, I think he will win next time, no matter what. The Liberals might be able to stave off crushing defeat however by selecting a proper replacement for JT.

I think PP is getting a bit cocky with his big lead in the polls right now. Talking about requiring ID for porn sites and banning trans women from sports and bathrooms might play well in rural NB and Alberta but it really makes no sense to me why he's touching any of these issues when he can coast on things like liberal burnout of the electorate and economic and housing policy right now.

I was expecting him to play more of a Tim Houston PC but looks like he's heading down the Higgs route of talking about issues that only severely hurt 0.5% of the population and does nothing concrete for the other 99.5%. Really disappointing. Let's just focus on policy that helps everyday people and stop with this American style fear mongering bullshit.

It should still be a layup for him in 2025 but these types of things leaves a lot of openings of attack for him from other areas. If the liberals weren't in disarray I'd expect a full barrage of ads talking about small government conservatives talking about requiring putting id on porn sites. The type of policy you see in China.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by lirette

I think PP is getting a bit cocky with his big lead in the polls right now. Talking about requiring ID for porn sites and banning trans women from sports and bathrooms might play well in rural NB and Alberta but it really makes no sense to me why he's touching any of these issues when he can coast on things like liberal burnout of the electorate and economic and housing policy right now.

I agree. The coming election appears to be his to lose and going too far into hard right ideology rather than bread and butter issues like housing and cost of living is risky.

[J81]

Originally Posted by lirette

I think PP is getting a bit cocky with his big lead in the polls right now. Talking about requiring ID for porn sites and banning trans women from sports and bathrooms might play well in rural NB and Alberta but it really makes no sense to me why he's touching any of these issues when he can coast on things like liberal burnout of the electorate and economic and housing policy right now.

I was expecting him to play more of a Tim Houston PC but looks like he's heading down the Higgs route of talking about issues that only severely hurt 0.5% of the population and does nothing concrete for the other 99.5%. Really disappointing. Let's just focus on policy that helps everyday people and stop with this American style fear mongering bullshit.

It should still be a layup for him in 2025 but these types of things leaves a lot of openings of attack for him from other areas. If the liberals weren't in disarray I'd expect a full barrage of ads talking about small government conservatives talking about requiring putting id on porn sites. The type of policy you see in China.

Keeping men dressed as women out of womens sports and bathrooms affects a lot more than 0.5% of the population. Thats why hes wading into it. And its an easy win. Nodoby wants their young daughters sharing a bathroom with men.

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by J81

Keeping men dressed as women out of womens sports and bathrooms affects a lot more than 0.5% of the population. Thats why hes wading into it. And its an easy win. Nodoby wants their young daughters sharing a bathroom with men.

I can’t help but wonder whether PP’s simply testing the waters right now, i.e. how fed up the population is with ideologies.

[MonctonianSentinel01]

Originally Posted by sailor734

I agree. The coming election appears to be his to lose and going too far into hard right ideology rather than bread and butter issues like housing and cost of living is risky.

He is tackling bread and butter issues like housing and affordability. He's been going on about it now for months if not at least a good year or more.

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

I can’t help but wonder whether PP’s simply testing the waters right now, i.e. how fed up the population is with ideologies.

I think you might be right. If this toe dipping into ideological waters strikes a vein with moderates who are fed up with the Liberals framing everything around what they see as woke/ultra progressive ideology he gains another way to peel off former liberal votes. The risk is he goes too far and comes across as nasty, unfeeling and mean spirited to those same moderates......a bit of a tightrope and one not without risk.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by J81

Keeping men dressed as women out of womens sports and bathrooms affects a lot more than 0.5% of the population. Thats why hes wading into it. And its an easy win. Nodoby wants their young daughters sharing a bathroom with men.

It's really just disheartening to read this. The issue you are describing actually just doesn't exist in the way you think it does, but there is certainly partisan framing of the issue which people are falling for, especially for those who have never spoken or understood someone who's transitioned. This is all the exact fear mongering that happened before things like gay marriage was legalized. It's not going to age well in history.

This post just goes to show how few people have actually met a trans person in their life and that is really the problem. If PP had a trans daughter or son he wouldn't even talk about because he would understand at the heart of it a trans person just wants to feel safe and included like all other human beings on this earth. Leaving all that aside, I would certainly love to hear from a pragmatic perspective what enforcement mechanism would you like to use to ensure someone is using the the bathroom you think they should. Genital checks or id checks at the door ?

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by MonctonianSentinel01

He is tackling bread and butter issues like housing and affordability. He's been going on about it now for months if not at least a good year or more.

Right, and it's been working........ so why pivot to ideology and give the Liberals an issue to potentially scare moderates away from voting CPC?

I just don't see the upside.

Edit Just to be clear, I want to see Trudeau and his bunch gone as much as anyone......I just don't want to return to 1950's morality to do it.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

I can’t help but wonder whether PP’s simply testing the waters right now, i.e. how fed up the population is with ideologies.

I suspect this is what he's doing. At the end of the day, I think there's a large portion of the population that really doesn't care about this kind of stuff. However, polls show that he's ahead of the other parties in the 18-29 age group, and these topics resonate a lot more with people in this age range. It's extremely risky, but I guess since an election isn't for another 1.5 years there's time to course-correct if needed.

[drewber]

Originally Posted by lirette

It's really just disheartening to read this. The issue you are describing actually just doesn't exist in the way you think it does, but there is certainly partisan framing of the issue which people are falling for, especially for those who have never spoken or understood someone who's transitioned. This is all the exact fear mongering that happened before things like gay marriage was legalized. It's not going to age well in history.

This post just goes to show how few people have actually met a trans person in their life and that is really the problem. If PP had a trans daughter or son he wouldn't even talk about because he would understand at the heart of it a trans person just wants to feel safe and included like all other human beings on this earth. Leaving all that aside, I would certainly love to hear from a pragmatic perspective what enforcement mechanism would you like to use to ensure someone is using the the bathroom you think they should. Genital checks or id checks at the door ?

Lumping ID for Porn in with Trans Rights is disgusting and some on this forum are probably salivating at the idea of PP banning trans men and women from using the bathroom they identify with. No documented cases of men dressing as women to peep on little girls but that's the narrative they want to use to scare people. Sickening.

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by lirette

Leaving all that aside, I would certainly love to hear from a pragmatic perspective what enforcement mechanism would you like to use to ensure someone is using the the bathroom you think they should. Genital checks or id checks at the door ?

Perhaps the same ID verification PP wants implemented to access porn?

[Marty_Mcfly]

Probably the most dire regional sample for the Liberals I've seen so far.



Modelled on new boundaries using proportional swing from 2021:

[sailor734]

Wow! If that is anywhere close to being accurate.....

[drewber]

Originally Posted by sailor734

Wow! If that is anywhere close to being accurate.....

Again, next election is 18 months away. A lot can change in that time. PP has no where to go but down and Trudeau can only regain some support he's lost

[sailor734]

Originally Posted by drewber

Again, next election is 18 months away. A lot can change in that time. PP has no where to go but down and Trudeau can only regain some support he's lost

Very true.....peaking too early isn't just a sports thing

OTOH 10 year old governments (and their PM's) often suffer from "Throw the bums out" syndrome.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by drewber

Again, next election is 18 months away. A lot can change in that time. PP has no where to go but down and Trudeau can only regain some support he's lost

There is still plenty of space between the current Liberal numbers and 2011 numbers.

[J81]

Originally Posted by lirette

It's really just disheartening to read this. The issue you are describing actually just doesn't exist in the way you think it does, but there is certainly partisan framing of the issue which people are falling for, especially for those who have never spoken or understood someone who's transitioned. This is all the exact fear mongering that happened before things like gay marriage was legalized. It's not going to age well in history.

This post just goes to show how few people have actually met a trans person in their life and that is really the problem. If PP had a trans daughter or son he wouldn't even talk about because he would understand at the heart of it a trans person just wants to feel safe and included like all other human beings on this earth. Leaving all that aside, I would certainly love to hear from a pragmatic perspective what enforcement mechanism would you like to use to ensure someone is using the the bathroom you think they should. Genital checks or id checks at the door ?

Its reality and not partisan at all. its an ideology that puts biological women at risk!

[drewber]

Originally Posted by J81

Its reality and not partisan at all. its an ideology that puts biological women at risk!

Gender is not an ideology. How are women at risk? Show me any proof that an increase in trans rights has also increased women being violated in public washrooms.

[lirette]

Originally Posted by drewber

Gender is not an ideology. How are women at risk? Show me any proof that an increase in trans rights has also increased women being violated in public washrooms.

Thank you for speaking up. .

It is quite simply made up. I don't think it's really worth it to engage any further with this person who continues to repeat lies and isn't looking for a good faith conversation. The idea that trans women are going to attack women is the oldest transphobic argument in existence without a shred of evidence ever provided. A person making this argument is highly unlikely to care about anything else women's rights related, they just hide behind this idea they are protecting cis women the same way that people hide behind religion for bigoted views.

From a competitive sports perspective there is already a framework that is being used on a sport by sport basis to look at this. The Olympics for example has been using a framework for many years. When someone undergoes transition and is on hormone therapy a significant muscle mass loss occurs within 1 year and this is the type of data that is considered. There is some sports which are still figuring out the framework as of course this is a newer development and as society becomes more accepting there will naturally be more scenarios play out, but they aren't asking or needing the government to help them. The sports bodies will figure this out.

But 99% of sports are at the recreational level, where the governments role should quite simply being ensuring access to sports to as many kids as possible, not finding ways to restrict access. The dead giveaway that this is bad policy is that the sports bodies themselves are not asking for government intervention here. In New Brunswick for example we had a policy in place that was working for several years with ZERO complaints filed. Despite this Higgs "revisited" the policy to make modifications no one asked for because it is much easier to rile up anger about already at riak trans people than to develop policies that help with cost of living, infrastructure, health care, education etc.

Let's also make sure to note, that gender neutral bathrooms and change rooms are becoming more and more commonplace, and the days of open showers where kids are all forced to shower next to each other with no privacy will eventually be in the distant past.

[sailor734]

Telegraph Journal reporting the Jeff Carr has announced he won't be reoffering. Carr was dumped from cabinet when he opposed Higgs' position on gender policy in schools.

Anyone know if he might have federal ambitions?