Worldwide Demographics

[mhays]

That's why I said "I mean the more ramshackle varieties of favela." What most or many are like is beside the point.

The US has no gray area between housing that's up to code (or should be) and homeless. Brazil does.

[ColDayMan]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's why I said "I mean the more ramshackle varieties of favela." What most or many are like is beside the point.

The US has no gray area between housing that's up to code (or should be) and homeless. Brazil does.

Generally agreed but there is certainly a gray area in parts of the country aka Appalachia:


www.growthipedia.com

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

That's why I said "I mean the more ramshackle varieties of favela." What most or many are like is beside the point.

The US has no gray area between housing that's up to code (or should be) and homeless. Brazil does.

There are tons of grey areas in the US, as ColDay mentioned above, or trailer parks or people living inside their cars.

However that’s beside the point: I was bringing data on homelessness, which has been one of the hottest political issues in the US, and more recently in Brazil as numbers skyrocketed and became a very hot topic as well, specially in SP where the “Crackland”, surge on petty crimes Downtown and homelessness have all merged in people’s mind becoming the single most important political issue in the city on the past 2-3 years.

[mhays]

No, trailers are legal residences (if they're in repair). Living in a car means you're homeless.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by mhays

No, trailers are legal residences (if they're in repair). Living in a car means you're homeless.

It depends, as long as you keep tracking them. In places where social services are strong, they might be counted. Otherwise, it might not be. Only the more permanent homeless people. Those kinds of things are usually very pulverized in the US whereas in Brazil is more centralized on federal government, including the big social programs, universal basic income (the renovated Bolsa Família) and the universal healthcare (SUS).

[wwmiv]

Originally Posted by ColDayMan

Generally agreed but there is certainly a gray area in parts of the country aka Appalachia:


www.growthipedia.com

This is a gray area everywhere. There are mobile home slums in every city. They’re just hidden by planning.

[Klippenstein]

Originally Posted by wwmiv

This is a gray area everywhere. There are mobile home slums in every city. They’re just hidden by planning.

I wonder what you mean by this. That mobile home communities are in places that aren't normally seen? I'm guessing you're also referring to metro area because a lot of older cities wouldn't allow mobile homes. That's the case in Chicago. Though there is one exception grandfathered in way out in the far SE corner on the border with Indiana. About as remote as you can get in Chicago.

[Steely Dan]

^ and even within the metro area, mobile homes are extremely rare in Chicagoland.

I read one source that said there are ~18,000 mobile home housing units in the Chicago MSA. Out of roughly 4,000,000 total housing units, that's only 0.45%.


But yeah, harbor point estates ("estates" LOL!!) being within city limits is kinda wild. It was initially built in the 1950s in the most out of the way and unseen corner in the entire city. At 17 miles from State/Madison, harbor point estates is the very furthest out a person can live and still technically be within city limits (the far NW corner of the ORD bubble is 18 miles out, but no one lives on airport property, obviously).

The Chicago zoning code, as written today, does not allow for construction of any new mobile homes, so it'll likely forever remain as the city's lone trailer park.

[iheartthed]

I don't think favelas are grey areas. They're slums, but they fit the technical definition of housing. I think likening them to trailer parks in the U.S. is pretty accurate, and residents of trailer parks aren't homeless either. There might also be some shanty housing that still exists in areas of the rural South that are dominated by descendants of slavery. If any of it is left, that would be very analogous in history and situation to Brazilian favelas.

[mhays]

Here's what I was getting at:

The US has more homeless than it should because there are nearly zero cheap, quick housing options in the cores of any expensive city. The public/nonprofit housing has wait lists and there are hardly any private slums. So it's a real apartment or the gutter.

In Brazil and much of the world, informal housing fills much of this void.

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

I don't think favelas are grey areas. They're slums, but they fit the technical definition of housing. I think likening them to trailer parks in the U.S. is pretty accurate, and residents of trailer parks aren't homeless either. There might also be some shanty housing that still exists in areas of the rural South that are dominated by descendants of slavery. If any of it is left, that would be very analogous in history and situation to Brazilian favelas.

Exactly. Favelas are housing. Period. It's like legal immigration and illegal immigration discussion in the US: they're both immigration.

And that's a completely different issue, about poverty, access to better housing and other amenities. Favelas themselves keep improving continuously.

While the number of people living in favelas is stagnant/declining (although 2022 Census numbers on this are yet to be released), homeless population has grown almost ten fold over the past decade and for the first time it has become a political issue in the country.

In Brazil case, I guess the economic malaise contributed a lot to this: when things are ok, it's easier to keep a problematic family member at home. When unemployment rises, that sours relations and expelling people from their houses is the direct result.

Other thing that I believe plays a factor it's the shrinking of family sizes, both on nuclear and extended family, meaning less people available to rely on and the streets become an alternative for those individuals.

Originally Posted by mhays

Here's what I was getting at:

The US has more homeless than it should because there are nearly zero cheap, quick housing options in the cores of any expensive city. The public/nonprofit housing has wait lists and there are hardly any private slums. So it's a real apartment or the gutter.

In Brazil and much of the world, informal housing fills much of this void.

To me it's more a cultural and political thing specially as there are cheaper housing there. The US is a much more individualistic society and social welfare is not well funded as it should be. To me it's not a surprise that homelessness is a bigger and older issue up there.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by mhays

Here's what I was getting at:

The US has more homeless than it should because there are nearly zero cheap, quick housing options in the cores of any expensive city. The public/nonprofit housing has wait lists and there are hardly any private slums. So it's a real apartment or the gutter.

In Brazil and much of the world, informal housing fills much of this void.

I think Brazil still has a homeless problem despite favelas. This is anecdotal, but homelessness looked to me to be just as visible in Brazilian cities as it is in much of the U.S., if not more. On a trip to Rio about a decade ago some homeless guy started a conversation with me outside of a bar once, and he told me that he sleeps on the beach at night. The police in Rio would never allow tent cities in the middle of their tourism cash cow, but I'm pretty sure that homeless people sleeping on the beach is common.

[Yuri]

And talking about Brazil, I haven't updated the 2022 Census numbers:

Brazil 2022 Census: 203,080,756 inh.

1872: 9,930,478
1890: 14,333,915 -- 44.3%
1900: 17,438,434 -- 21.7%
1920: 30,635,605 -- 75.7%
1940: 41,236,315 -- 34.6%
1950: 51,944,397 -- 26.0%
1960: 70,191,370 -- 35.1%
1970: 93,139,037 -- 32.7%
1980: 119,002,706 -- 27.8%
1991: 146,825,475 -- 23.4%
2000: 169,799,170 -- 15.6%
2010: 190,755,799 -- 12.3%
2022: 203,080,756 --- 6.5%

Brazilian Statistical Office (IBGE) released today more data regarding the census, this time focused on gender and age. Highlights:

--- Number of people 65 y/o and over reached 22,169,101 (10.7%) in 2022 up from 14,081,477 (7.4%) in 2010. A staggering 57.4% growth on the past 12 years. In 1980, the population with 65 y/o and over was 4% of total. A 3 point increase between 1980-2010 and another 3 pt increase between 2010-2022.

--- Number of children (0-14y/o) went from 45,932,294 (24.1%) in 2010 to 40,129,261 (19.8%) in 2022, shrinking by -12.6%. Children (0-14 y/o) were 38.2% (45,460,763) of population in 1980. 5.3 million more children than today.

--- Median age jumped by 6 years, from 29 y/o in 2010 to 35 y/o in 2022.

--- 104,548,325 women and 98,532,431 men. 94.5 men to 100 women (2022). In 2010 it was 96 to 100.


Brazil had been the world's 5th most populated country (and it's also the 5th largest in land area) since the early 1990's (taking Russia's place) but it's now confirmed to have been eclipsed by both Pakistan (241 million on 2023 census) and Nigeria (217 million, 2022 estimate).

Brazil will inevitably start declining by the early-mid 2030's.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Race stats

Mixed: 92,083,286 (45.34%)

White: 88,252,121 (43.46%)

Black: 20,656,458 (10.17%)

Indigenous: 1,227,642 (0.60%)

Asian: 850,130 (0.42%)

--- Whites are no longer a plurality in Brazil, but Mixed. It was 47% vs 43% in 2010, and now Mixed are 45% and Whites are 43%. The lowest number of Whites was registered on the first census (1872), where they were 38% of population. After the Great European Immigration, that number climbed to 60% in 1940 and started to decline ever since. Even though racism is perceived as a lesser issue compared to the US or South Africa, the social gulf is massive: Whites still have twice the income of Mixed+Black, much more years of education, longer life expectancy, etc.

--- Number of people declaring themselves Blacks soared and now they're 10% of population. Cultural changes regarding empowerment made many people to declare themselves Black instead of Mixed, specially young people in big metropolises. Even before this Black awareness, self-declared Brazilian Blacks, unlike the US ones has a massive amount of non-African ancestry due a much stronger miscigenation in the country. Several genetic surveys showed they're just above 50% African average.

--- 850,000 Asians, mostly Japanese heavily centered in São Paulo and Paraná states. São Paulo metro area (332,000 Asians) is by far the largest Japanese city in the world outside Japan. Although that's not measured by the Brazilian Census, out of those 850k, about 150k-200k are Chinese and Koreans. Unlike Japanese, they started to arrive much later, from the 1990's.

--- Indigenous population also soared to 1.2 million, also result of affirmative actions. There are many Mixed people who declare themselves Indigenous.

--- The most White state is Rio Grande do Sul, comprising 78% of local population; Asians are 1.2% in São Paulo state; Mixed+Black are 80% in Bahia and Indigenous are 14% in Roraima.

[streetscaper]

Originally Posted by Yuri

--- Number of people declaring themselves Blacks soared and now they're 10% of population. Cultural changes regarding empowerment made many people to declare themselves Black instead of Mixed, specially young people in big metropolises. Even before this Black awareness, self-declared Brazilian Blacks, unlike the US ones has a massive amount of non-African ancestry due a much stronger miscigenation in the country. Several genetic surveys showed they're just above 50% African average.

As a point of comparison to go along with your post, self-declared blacks in the US have 73.2% African, 24.0% European, and 0.8% Native American ancestry

Within black Haitian population, it's 95% African, 5% European or mixed European

[Yuri]

Originally Posted by streetscaper

As a point of comparison to go along with your post, self-declared blacks in the US have 73.2% African, 24.0% European, and 0.8% Native American ancestry

Within black Haitian population, it's 95% African, 5% European or mixed European

Yeah, Haitians and West Africans are a very visible minority in Brazil precisely because Brazilian Blacks have a good amount of non-African background, European and Native due centuries of miscegenation. There are Blacks with a very African look, specially in places like Rio de Janeiro or Salvador, but they're a minority amongst the Black community.

Today, as many young Mixed people are switching to Black, the average self-declared Black will become less genetic African overall. Another recent development is the word preto being once again acceptable and celebrated by Black activists after decades of being considered dated and derrogatory. Negro is still used and it's still way more common on wider contexts.

And not talking about racial identities, which is a smaller thing in Brazil than in the US anyway, socioeconomically speaking, Mixed and Blacks are the same groupand they're often categorize together by many public agencies, specially the ones focused on social issues.

[ColDayMan]

Originally Posted by Yuri

Yeah, Haitians and West Africans are a very visible minority in Brazil precisely because Brazilian Blacks have a good amount of non-African background, European and Native due centuries of miscegenation. There are Blacks with a very African look, specially in places like Rio de Janeiro or Salvador, but they're a minority amongst the Black community.

Today, as many young Mixed people are switching to Black, the average self-declared Black will become less genetic African overall. Another recent development is the word preto being once again acceptable and celebrated by Black activists after decades of being considered dated and derrogatory. Negro is still used and it's still way more common on wider contexts.

And not talking about racial identities, which is a smaller thing in Brazil than in the US anyway, socioeconomically speaking, Mixed and Blacks are the same groupand they're often categorize together by many public agencies, specially the ones focused on social issues.

I mean, that's true for any country that has black and mixed-with-African folks. In Brazil, Obama and Halle Berry would be "pardo" but I'm going to assume they would still identify with being black more so than their white half due to obvious appearance. So I can see why mixed folks in Brazil would rather identify as black as they see themselves as black and are seen as black by other folks.

Same story in America, Canada, France, UK, Belgium, Panama, Colombia, etc.

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by mhays

Here's what I was getting at:

The US has more homeless than it should because there are nearly zero cheap, quick housing options in the cores of any expensive city. The public/nonprofit housing has wait lists and there are hardly any private slums. So it's a real apartment or the gutter.

In Brazil and much of the world, informal housing fills much of this void.

Cities need to bring back rooming houses, to be honest.

[mhays]

Yes, absolutely.

In Seattle we lost 5,000 rooming house units basically overnight 50 years ago because there was a fire in one and the others were declared unsafe. This played out across the country. It was a key trigger for modern-day homelessness.

For a brief moment it was possible in this city to build modern, safe rooming houses, with kitchen and bathroom down the hall--the only way to build affordable housing in urban neighborhoods without subsidy. Basically like student housing. Now it's illegal to build (except for students). It's always been illegal in most US cities.

[wwmiv]

Well, quasi-rooming houses are now legal in Austin. Single-family homes are now unrestricted for occupancy and tenant relation. Any developer could build a single family home with however many bedrooms and baths on any parcel they want to (6 bed, 6 1/2 bath, for instance, with a shared kitchen), and rent by the room ($800 a pop or more depending on location and finishes, and maybe even rent rooms to an on-site housekeeper at a discount) to whoever they wanted without interference from the city.

I have to point out that there is an underground rooming house dynamic already in the market, insofar as enterprising owners fill their investment properties with unrelated singles found on any of the many apartment search and even vacation rental websites and apps.

All that said… I doubt this is going to become a thing anytime soon. We’re more likely to see more units delivered in urban hippie RV hookups to existing homes than new rooming homes.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by mhays

Here's what I was getting at:

The US has more homeless than it should because there are nearly zero cheap, quick housing options in the cores of any expensive city. The public/nonprofit housing has wait lists and there are hardly any private slums. So it's a real apartment or the gutter.

In Brazil and much of the world, informal housing fills much of this void.

I agree. We have been so determined to eliminate substandard housing that we now have hundreds of thousands without homes at all.