Statistics Canada Reports II

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

Your alarmism isn't remotely real. The worst case scenario for Arizona has it nowhere near the climate of somewhere like Dubai that by the way is completely thriving. Drinking water is easily made if needed in anywhere with access to salt water but regardless it is growing things like almonds that uses up the water resources not drinking water.

I wish I had the ability to ignore science, and pretend everything will be OK. However, I have accepted that Arizona is doomed.

[lio45]

That’s ridiculous. Humid places like India, China, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Africa, etc. will be uninhabitable way before Arizona ever is. (And if we import all those people, Canada should have about 3-4 billion residents. Curious what our real estate markets will look like then! )

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by lio45

(And if we import all those people, Canada should have about 3-4 billion residents. Curious what our real estate markets will look like then! )

Whatever the outcome, it'll all be Trudeau's fault. And launch millions more pickup truck window stickers.

I don't think Arizona will be uninhabitable. But the state's urbanization trends of the last 30-40 years will not be sustainable.

Under a climate-altered future, I think our approaches to 'growth' will need to adapt as much the ways we design/build infrastructure. And politics will need to adapt as well... I'm hopeful Canada is in a better place for that to happen than in other countries (especially the Great U.S. of A.) but that may be the most difficult part of adapting to climate change.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

I wish I had the ability to ignore science, and pretend everything will be OK. However, I have accepted that Arizona is doomed.

Where is the science that says Arizona will be uninhabitable?

[thewave46]

The doom-wanking fetish of certain Canadians about the United States is such a weird one.

So, let's pick this one apart.

I've been to Arizona during July. Yeah it's hot, but things pretty much operate normally, just like they do in Winnipeg during an extreme cold snap. Maybe not 100%, but 90%+ easily.

So, the hypothetical future situation where Arizona is a few degrees warmer on average likely means the heat will be more intense for longer during the hottest months. That still leaves 8-9 months of reasonably pleasant weather, even in the warmer parts of the state.

The hottest day ever recorded in Phoenix was 50C on June 26, 1990. The masses didn't die on that day, people didn't flee the city. Life went on, people still flocked there after that day. A couple of degrees up from that record effectively changes nothing about the place. Sure, some fools probably got heatstroke like fools get frostbite in Canada during cold snaps, but that's expected.

It would be akin to an alternate world where Winnipeg gets a little colder in the winter. The city would continue to function well, because the whole infrastructure of the city is designed for those extremes. Whether the coldest temperature is -35C or -40C is mostly irrelevant past a certain point, because human engineering mitigates the downsides effectively. Things slow down and measures are taken. Life goes on and much of the year is not that extreme.

Second, the population of the whole state of Arizona is ~7.5 million, many who live outside the hottest part of the state. Even if the worst happens, there are many states around with less extreme climates in that country that will easily absorb so-called 'refugees' in a worst-case scenario, because in terms of the United States' population of 330 million+ people, 7.5 million is small.

Third, Canada's population growth is mostly driven by domestic politics and demographics, not the bogeyman of potential illegal immigration. Want to slow our contribution to climate change, if one is so scared of its implications? Stop flying people from the opposite side of the globe to cold, GHG-intensive Canada by the million per year.

Some just can't get their hands out of their pants, though.

[someone123]

My point about Arizona per capita water use going down came from here (paywalled):
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/31/opinion/southwest-climate-change-drought.html

"Arizona now uses 3 percent less water than it did in 1957, despite having a population that’s mushroomed more than 555 percent since then."

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by thewave46

The doom-wanking fetish of certain Canadians about the United States is such a weird one.

So, let's pick this one apart.

I've been to Arizona during July. Yeah it's hot, but things pretty much operate normally, just like they do in Winnipeg during an extreme cold snap. Maybe not 100%, but 90%+ easily.

So, the hypothetical future situation where Arizona is a few degrees warmer on average likely means the heat will be more intense for longer during the hottest months. That still leaves 8-9 months of reasonably pleasant weather, even in the warmer parts of the state.

The hottest day ever recorded in Phoenix was 50C on June 26, 1990. The masses didn't die on that day, people didn't flee the city. Life went on, people still flocked there after that day. A couple of degrees up from that record effectively changes nothing about the place. Sure, some fools probably got heatstroke like fools get frostbite in Canada during cold snaps, but that's expected.

It would be akin to an alternate world where Winnipeg gets a little colder in the winter. The city would continue to function well, because the whole infrastructure of the city is designed for those extremes. Whether the coldest temperature is -35C or -40C is mostly irrelevant past a certain point, because human engineering mitigates the downsides effectively. Things slow down and measures are taken. Life goes on and much of the year is not that extreme.

Second, the population of the whole state of Arizona is ~7.5 million, many who live outside the hottest part of the state. Even if the worst happens, there are many states around with less extreme climates in that country that will easily absorb so-called 'refugees' in a worst-case scenario, because in terms of the United States' population of 330 million+ people, 7.5 million is small.

Third, Canada's population growth is mostly driven by domestic politics and demographics, not the bogeyman of potential illegal immigration. Want to slow our contribution to climate change, if one is so scared of its implications? Stop flying people from the opposite side of the globe to cold, GHG-intensive Canada by the million per year.

Some just can't get their hands out of their pants, though.

The fact that you were in Arizona and didn't die from the heat, or that one day in 1990 saw the highest temperature in Phoenix suggests you're dismissive of the idea of climate migration, which other parts of your comment suggests isn't the case.

The idea that parts of Arizona may prove uninhabitable in future has been suggested in several research papers, mainly because they would be uneconomic to live in, as greater drought and heat in several consecutive years would see farms abandoned, and workers having to move. Those sorts of patterns have been seen before in Arizona's observable archaeology. Phoenix is (rather late) acknowledging the threats, and trying to avoid the worst effects, but still saw heatstroke deaths in the city increase by 25% last year (425 in Maricopa County).

The science says Arizona sees higher than average temperature increase. NOAA's Arizona State Climate Summary says “temperatures in Arizona have risen 2.5 degrees (Fahrenheit) since the beginning of the 20th century … (and) historically unprecedented increases in annual average temperature are projected during this century.” It's clear that Arizona faces greater challenges as a result of the warming climate in future than it has so far.

This doesn't mean an immediate mass exodus to Canada by Arizona residents, and it doesn't suggest that the whole of Arizona will be uninhabitable, and abandoned, but it does suggest that it won't necessarily be a great place to live - especially if you're poor and can't afford a/c, or worse, homeless.

[lio45]

Winnipeg is even more unliveable if you’re poor and can’t afford heating, or worse, homeless.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by lio45

Winnipeg is even more unliveable if you’re poor and can’t afford heating, or worse, homeless.

The statistics don't support your statement. What's your point?

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The fact that you were in Arizona and didn't die from the heat, or that one day in 1990 saw the highest temperature in Phoenix suggests you're dismissive of the idea of climate migration, which other parts of your comment suggests isn't the case.

The idea that parts of Arizona may prove uninhabitable in future has been suggested in several research papers, mainly because they would be uneconomic to live in, as greater drought and heat in several consecutive years would see farms abandoned, and workers having to move. Those sorts of patterns have been seen before in Arizona's observable archaeology. Phoenix is (rather late) acknowledging the threats, and trying to avoid the worst effects, but still saw heatstroke deaths in the city increase by 25% last year (425 in Maricopa County).

The science says Arizona sees higher than average temperature increase. NOAA's Arizona State Climate Summary says “temperatures in Arizona have risen 2.5 degrees (Fahrenheit) since the beginning of the 20th century … (and) historically unprecedented increases in annual average temperature are projected during this century.” It's clear that Arizona faces greater challenges as a result of the warming climate in future than it has so far.

This doesn't mean an immediate mass exodus to Canada by Arizona residents, and it doesn't suggest that the whole of Arizona will be uninhabitable, and abandoned, but it does suggest that it won't necessarily be a great place to live - especially if you're poor and can't afford a/c, or worse, homeless.

My post was meant to dismiss the extreme view of someone who views Arizona as a future wasteland of humanity and that'll swamp Canada thousands of miles away with untold millions, when it seems likely no such thing will happen.

Climate change will affect it, certainly. But it's already:
(a) Reasonably adapted to the extreme it finds itself in,
(b) Still seems to be growing despite being knowingly being very unpleasant in the summer,
(c) Has ample opportunities to save/conserve scarce water by abandoning low-value agriculture in the desert, and finally
(d) Is probably less sucky an environment than tent-city winter Canada for the marginally housed, because its prodigious rate of growth actually allows it to scale housing to demand.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Changing City

This doesn't mean an immediate mass exodus to Canada by Arizona residents, and it doesn't suggest that the whole of Arizona will be uninhabitable, and abandoned, but it does suggest that it won't necessarily be a great place to live - especially if you're poor and can't afford a/c, or worse, homeless.

Looks like the GDP per capita of Arizona is around $90k CAD per person. This sounds like more of a resource allocation question (use 0.1% of your GDP to provide better places for poor and homeless) than a hard material constraint and it doesn't have much to do with climate change as an overall problem although climate change makes it a bit worse at the margins.

Many other factors are changing at the same time. For example there are more energy options now than in the past. Arizona is a pretty good place for solar. Even as the climate warms it can become easier to afford AC, and those systems can become more resilient. Desalination has been getting cheaper over time too. I'd assume that crop resilience has improved a lot. If you want to say Arizona will deteriorate as a place to live it's not enough to only show that the climate is getting less hospitable. You also have to show that such changes outweigh all other positive changes. Historically that hasn't been happening during the 1500-2024 timeframe.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by someone123

Looks like the GDP per capita of Arizona is around $90k CAD per person. This sounds like more of a resource allocation question (use 0.1% of your GDP to provide better places for poor and homeless) than a hard material constraint and it doesn't have much to do with climate change as an overall problem although climate change makes it a bit worse at the margins.

Many other factors are changing at the same time. For example there are more energy options now than in the past. Arizona is a pretty good place for solar. Even as the climate warms it can become easier to afford AC, and those systems can become more resilient. Desalination has been getting cheaper over time too. I'd assume that crop resilience has improved a lot. If you want to say Arizona will deteriorate as a place to live it's not enough to only show that the climate is getting less hospitable. You also have to show that such changes outweigh all other positive changes. Historically that hasn't been happening during the 1500-2024 timeframe.

Arizona GDP per capita is not even close to $90k per capita, It's more like $50k, and lower than the US average. But your point about solar is valid, although the potential for parts of the electricity system to fry in an extended heatwave is not negligable. Recent cuts to water allocation from the Columbia River, and depleted groundwater are both impacting agriculture in the state. Good luck using desalination on Arizona's coastline.

And now, back to Statistics Canada...?

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Changing City

Arizona GDP per capita is not even close to $90k per capita, It's more like $50k, and lower than the US average.

I'm just going off Wikipedia which lists $68,965 USD for Arizona in 2023: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP

They seem to have a high GDP growth rate. I think this is actually somewhat relevant to Canada as we keep hearing these other places are hellholes when the stats suggest they're richer and getting richer faster than Canada is.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by someone123

I'm just going off Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_GDP

They seem to have a high GDP growth rate. I think this is actually somewhat relevant to Canada as we keep hearing these other places are hellholes when the stats suggest they're richer and getting richer faster than Canada is.

The chart you linked says per capita GDP was $68K last year, (as you just edited) - so nowhere near $90K and the US was $82K.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Changing City

The chart you linked says per capita GDP was $68K last year, (as you just edited) - so nowhere near $90K and the US was $82K.

Please note the currencies given in my posts.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by someone123

Looks like the GDP per capita of Arizona is around $90k CAD per person.

Over $90k CAD per person, at today’s rate, using Changing City’s own numbers

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by someone123

Please note the currencies given in my posts.

I see that. So they've got a significantly higher GDP than Canada, (and rising), but they're into they're 24th year of drought and depleting their resources of groundwater. And average temperatures are rising there. So if they put some of their resources to switching from coal-fired and gas-powered electricity, and reduce their agricultural water use, they shouldn't all need to move to Winnipeg (or Okotoks). That's a relief.

[theman23]

nvm

[Acajack]

Quebec City was the top economic performer of Canada's major cities over the past two decades:

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/fr/magazi...s-forte-croissance-economique-au-canada/

[lio45]

Where were you during the holidays? Your SSP post total lead has melted like Quebec snow in a typical 2030s January.

(I was even getting a bit worried for you )