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  #361  
Old Posted Dec 29, 2023, 10:58 PM
YYCguys YYCguys is offline
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Originally Posted by thenoflyzone View Post
Part of the gamble of flying with Flair out of a secondary airport in Canada.
Does Flair connect YKF to YYZ or are customers left to finding their own way to YYZ to pick up a Flair flight?
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  #362  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2023, 1:49 AM
kwoldtimer kwoldtimer is offline
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Originally Posted by YYCguys View Post
Does Flair connect YKF to YYZ or are customers left to finding their own way to YYZ to pick up a Flair flight?
YYZ is not in the YKF/Flair picture.
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  #363  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2023, 7:20 PM
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Here's an interesting statistic from October (the most recent month comparable data is available for YVR, YYC, and YUL). Overall traffic growth year-over-year:

YVR +15.8%
YYC +15.7%
YUL +15.6%

I don't ever remember these 3 airports being that close to each other in terms of % growth, they are statistically identical! Even more shocking is that the % growth by sector varied a lot between the airports, yet the overall growth was the same at all 3 airports. It is a strong indicator that the outlier anomaly growth rates we've seen since 2020 are likely over, and now it's organic changes and not comparing with a shut down period. One exception is YVR and China, that's a huge artificially created void, and a remnant of the pandemic combined with strained politics. But if properly reopened, it could affect YVR's international numbers fairly substantially, but that is really the only major market pair missing still (I don't count individual route suspensions like TLV or even YVR-DEL, those are still one small potatoes compared to normal YVR to China traffic and what's there now. YYC and YUL have recovered international and then some, they will grow organically and not because of some missing market coming back online.
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  #364  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2023, 8:20 PM
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I'm not sure how much of this was posted already, but it was posted on Dec. 26 and didn't see anything after that on the thread:

AIR CANADA NS24 INTERCONTINENTAL NETWORK CHANGES – 26DEC23

Lots of minor adjustments as usual (ie. switching from an A330 to 787, or starting a route a few weeks earlier). Nothing major as far as I can see. I am happy to see that YVR-BKK was extended again and is now until May 2nd. I have lost track of how many times the service has been expanded from the original plan, but I feel like it's gained significantly compared to the initial schedule (both in operational frequency and in seasonal duration). Would be amazing to see it go year round but that's way less likely; once the main summer season kicks in, the planes are way too in demand to Europe. Maybe with a fleet expansion or very strong indicators for summer travel it could happen, but extending right to the end of the shoulder seasons is likely as far as it goes.

One of the routes mentioned in the link above is YYZ-SCL: Service suspended during Northern summer 2024 season, except one-time service on 14-15APR24 with 787-9 (Previous: 4 weekly 787-8 for NS24. And YYZ-EZE is a one-stop both ways with GRU now. I remember AC did some kind of triangle routing in the past with EZE and SCL, one of the few triangle routes internationally. But I thought they changed to terminator service for both at some point, but can't remember details. But now they have no non-stop to either destination for most of the year. Were the routes just weak overall, or challenging economics? Or just less popular than other routes so the planes were better used elsewhere? It looks like there's no RIO service anymore either (probably originated from the pandemic), and Lima is also gone? I am probably super late to the game with these changes, just didn't realize AC axed so much capacity to South America, I thought it was just Asia Pacific that's been hurt and that everywhere else was growing. But apparently not. I will never lose hope YVR will get a South American route, but the AC cuts are disheartening because it shows they are struggling to keep what they already had, let alone add service from a new airport with more challenging economics... At one point I think Rouge operated to Lima with 767s, and AC mainline had service to Caracas in the not-so-distant past. Obviously Caracas being cut was more about politics and the situation in Venezuela, but still, it's just another negative knock for SA service. I am so uneducated on the market factors, economics, and nature of Canada-South America flights. I always imagined that it's a big market, growing market with strong fundamentals. But the reality seems very different. Not only is Air Canada cutting back, but South American Airlines have such a limited presence in Canada (just the daily flights from Aviance, YYZ-BOG, on a narrowbody). But nothing from the LATAM Group. I know a big part of that is because the airlines are very limited in terms of # and type of aircraft that would work. Brazil is ridiculous, for a country of that size, they don't even really have a proper international airline. The largest, LATAM Brasil only has 11 wide body aircraft, and Azul and GOL barely have international service. Aerolineas Argentinas has very limited international service, same with LATAM Peru. And by international I mean outside South America, ie. to North America, Europe. Very low levels of connectivity relatively speaking, compared to Asia, North America, Europe, Middle East. So I guess I shouldn't be surprised that AC isn't growing, I guess just thought they were starting the market and growing it, knowing they wouldn't be challenged by local airlines there. But even with no competition, they folded. Bogota seems the most robust out of all the airports, but that's probably due to geography and being in the northern hemisphere, and able to operate on narrow bodies.
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  #365  
Old Posted Dec 30, 2023, 8:49 PM
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^I could be wrong but AC hasn’t flown to GIG since like 2016, I think they stopped shortly after the Olympics.

Seems Chile has been the weakest South American destination as even UA is also suspending the route for S24.

On the note of YYC, it seems every long haul carrier is adding seats in 2024, except for AC as both DE and WK added more flights in recent updates.
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  #366  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2023, 1:34 AM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is online now
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post
I'm not sure how much of this was posted already, but it was posted on Dec. 26 and didn't see anything after that on the thread:

AIR CANADA NS24 INTERCONTINENTAL NETWORK CHANGES – 26DEC23

Lots of minor adjustments as usual (ie. switching from an A330 to 787, or starting a route a few weeks earlier). Nothing major as far as I can see. I am happy to see that YVR-BKK was extended again and is now until May 2nd. I have lost track of how many times the service has been expanded from the original plan, but I feel like it's gained significantly compared to the initial schedule (both in operational frequency and in seasonal duration). Would be amazing to see it go year round but that's way less likely; once the main summer season kicks in, the planes are way too in demand to Europe. Maybe with a fleet expansion or very strong indicators for summer travel it could happen, but extending right to the end of the shoulder seasons is likely as far as it goes.

One of the routes mentioned in the link above is YYZ-SCL: Service suspended during Northern summer 2024 season, except one-time service on 14-15APR24 with 787-9 (Previous: 4 weekly 787-8 for NS24. And YYZ-EZE is a one-stop both ways with GRU now. I remember AC did some kind of triangle routing in the past with EZE and SCL, one of the few triangle routes internationally. But I thought they changed to terminator service for both at some point, but can't remember details. But now they have no non-stop to either destination for most of the year. Were the routes just weak overall, or challenging economics? Or just less popular than other routes so the planes were better used elsewhere? It looks like there's no RIO service anymore either (probably originated from the pandemic), and Lima is also gone? I am probably super late to the game with these changes, just didn't realize AC axed so much capacity to South America, I thought it was just Asia Pacific that's been hurt and that everywhere else was growing. But apparently not. I will never lose hope YVR will get a South American route, but the AC cuts are disheartening because it shows they are struggling to keep what they already had, let alone add service from a new airport with more challenging economics... At one point I think Rouge operated to Lima with 767s, and AC mainline had service to Caracas in the not-so-distant past. Obviously Caracas being cut was more about politics and the situation in Venezuela, but still, it's just another negative knock for SA service. I am so uneducated on the market factors, economics, and nature of Canada-South America flights. I always imagined that it's a big market, growing market with strong fundamentals. But the reality seems very different. Not only is Air Canada cutting back, but South American Airlines have such a limited presence in Canada (just the daily flights from Aviance, YYZ-BOG, on a narrowbody). But nothing from the LATAM Group. I know a big part of that is because the airlines are very limited in terms of # and type of aircraft that would work. Brazil is ridiculous, for a country of that size, they don't even really have a proper international airline. The largest, LATAM Brasil only has 11 wide body aircraft, and Azul and GOL barely have international service. Aerolineas Argentinas has very limited international service, same with LATAM Peru. And by international I mean outside South America, ie. to North America, Europe. Very low levels of connectivity relatively speaking, compared to Asia, North America, Europe, Middle East. So I guess I shouldn't be surprised that AC isn't growing, I guess just thought they were starting the market and growing it, knowing they wouldn't be challenged by local airlines there. But even with no competition, they folded. Bogota seems the most robust out of all the airports, but that's probably due to geography and being in the northern hemisphere, and able to operate on narrow bodies.
I don’t know what you’re talking about. AC’s seat capacity to South America has probably never been higher.

Non stop flights to deep South America (SCL, EZE) have always struggled. This is nothing new. The non stops from YYZ to both those cities are very long and dilute yield. Hence why they’ve often been served together.

Yes, LIM is no more. Recent political unrest affected the flights most likely. Plus LIM is a cargo intensive route, and now that AC has a freighter division, those freighters are probably better placed to serve that route, which they do, twice a week. This being said, TS jumped on the opportunity and currently serves both YYZ and YUL to LIM. Don’t know if it will last, but let’s see.

Recent Political unrest in Chile has probably affected flights to SCL as well.

As for Venezuela, chalk that up to politics as well. Foreign Airlines were having a hard time repatriating US currency out of Venezuela. Hence why a lot of foreign carriers left. AA was one of the last North American carriers to pull out, and the only reason they remained so long was because they were only selling tickets in US dollars at the end.

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...from-venezuela

So yes, Canada-South America is a big and growing market, and politics aside, is doing just fine.

Last edited by thenoflyzone; Dec 31, 2023 at 1:55 AM.
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  #367  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2023, 12:15 PM
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YUL gained nicely with GRU daily on AC, as well as BOG. But overall it doesn't appear the region is doing "just fine", especially from YYZ compared to before. Whatever the reasons, losing Lima, Caracas, Santiago, Rio, and combining EZE with GRU from YYZ doesn't scream doing just fine. It isn't catastrophic or anything, especially in the current travel environment that still has weakness in various places from the last four years, but I hadn't really noticed the reductions before now. And the fact remains, South American airlines are absent too, so it's not like others are picking up the slack (but as I said, their airlines are notoriously limited in long haul destinations, so this isn't a direct slight to Canada either). And I am not picking a fight against any airport or implying their weakness, moreso disappointed that what people thought would be a major growth market has been slow to grow. YVR doesn't have any direct flights to South America, so many here consider it a major missing piece of an otherwise diverse destination list. So when I see established airports like YYZ lose service, I selfishly think the chances of scoring a YVR-South American route go down, that's all.
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  #368  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2023, 5:42 PM
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Happy New Year from CYQM Moncton.





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  #369  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2023, 5:44 PM
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Great shots, wow!
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  #370  
Old Posted Dec 31, 2023, 6:51 PM
thenoflyzone thenoflyzone is online now
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Originally Posted by zahav View Post
YUL gained nicely with GRU daily on AC, as well as BOG. But overall it doesn't appear the region is doing "just fine", especially from YYZ compared to before. Whatever the reasons, losing Lima, Caracas, Santiago, Rio, and combining EZE with GRU from YYZ doesn't scream doing just fine. It isn't catastrophic or anything, especially in the current travel environment that still has weakness in various places from the last four years, but I hadn't really noticed the reductions before now. And the fact remains, South American airlines are absent too, so it's not like others are picking up the slack (but as I said, their airlines are notoriously limited in long haul destinations, so this isn't a direct slight to Canada either). And I am not picking a fight against any airport or implying their weakness, moreso disappointed that what people thought would be a major growth market has been slow to grow. YVR doesn't have any direct flights to South America, so many here consider it a major missing piece of an otherwise diverse destination list. So when I see established airports like YYZ lose service, I selfishly think the chances of scoring a YVR-South American route go down, that's all.
EZE has been a tag on from either SCL or GRU for as long as I can remember. The non stop was very brief and didn’t last. So this is the norm. Nothing has changed there.

SCL will be winter seasonal. So really, the only thing you are arguing here is the loss of LIM. It’s no big deal. And like I said, TS is now on the route.

The AC additions to South America from YUL more than make up for any losses from YYZ.

Lack of South American carriers in Canada isn’t a good metric for anything. Besides Avianca, which already serves YYZ, nothing else really makes sense, especially when you’re overflying a massively larger market (US) to get here.

Also, you can’t really tie in YVR-South America’s chances to what is happening in YYZ. YYZ-SA could be doing extremely well, with LIM, CCS and SCL all served daily year round, but it still doesn’t mean YVR will get SA service. The opposite is also true. Just because you perceive AC to be doing poorly in SA doesn’t mean YVR-SA will never launch.

Besides, if AC has been doing as bad as you claim to SA, why on earth did they launch flights there from YUL?

Once again. SA is fine. It’s a growing market. AC is simply shifting capacity to where it can make more profit.
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  #371  
Old Posted Jan 1, 2024, 4:49 PM
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This article from December stating the YHU terminal’s target opening is July 2025: https://canadianaviationnews.ca/mont...n-it-is-today/
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  #372  
Old Posted Jan 1, 2024, 9:25 PM
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This article from December stating the YHU terminal’s target opening is July 2025: https://canadianaviationnews.ca/mont...n-it-is-today/
The article mentions that “Chapter 2 aircraft will be prohibited from night movements”. What is a Chapter 2 aircraft?
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  #373  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 12:11 AM
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The article mentions that “Chapter 2 aircraft will be prohibited from night movements”. What is a Chapter 2 aircraft?
Basically they’re referring to the 732, a couple of which are based at YHU. However, all commercial JT8Ds were hush kitted to stage 3 over 20 years ago. Noise stages align with ICAO standards for engine noise in decibels.
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  #374  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 4:22 PM
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Well looks like ET has chosen to go with daily YYZ, no surprise there. I wonder how long before they can actually get additional rights to add YUL.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/240102-etns24yyz

Quote:
Ethiopian Airlines at the launch of Northern summer 2024 season plans to increase service to Canada, as Addis Ababa – Toronto service set to increase from 5 to 7 weekly, effective 31MAR24. The carrier's westbound service operates via Rome Fiumicino as technical stop.

Airbus A350-900XWB aircraft operates this route.

ET552 ADD2235 – 0405+1FCO0505+1 – 0820+1YYZ 350 27
ET552 ADD2300 – 0420+1FCO0520+1 – 0850+1YYZ 350 x27

ET553 YYZ1020 – 0700+1ADD 350 13
ET553 YYZ1100 – 0700+1ADD 350 x13
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  #375  
Old Posted Jan 2, 2024, 5:58 PM
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Happy New Year from CYQM Moncton.

The CS-300/A220-300 is such a beautiful aircraft. The heritage livery looks rad, too.
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  #376  
Old Posted Jan 3, 2024, 1:28 AM
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The CS-300/A220-300 is such a beautiful aircraft. The heritage livery looks rad, too.

I just wished they'd picked a different predecessor livery this time. They've already done TCA.
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  #377  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2024, 4:06 AM
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I was surprised to read that Canada will be sending investigators to Japan for the JAL crash investigation, as the other a/c was the Canadian-built Bombardier Dash 88.
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  #378  
Old Posted Jan 5, 2024, 5:21 AM
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I was surprised to read that Canada will be sending investigators to Japan for the JAL crash investigation, as the other a/c was the Canadian-built Bombardier Dash 88.
Just like France with be sending BEA investigators. Standard procedure.
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  #379  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2024, 9:00 PM
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If it’s Boeing, I ain’t going.

Seriously yet another case of slapdash engineering, coming on the heels of Max 8 and 787 issues. Anybody else losing faith in Boeing engineering? Any Cdn airlines using the Max 9?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/alaska...-out-1.7076487
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  #380  
Old Posted Jan 6, 2024, 9:25 PM
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If it’s Boeing, I ain’t going.

Seriously yet another case of slapdash engineering, coming on the heels of Max 8 and 787 issues. Anybody else losing faith in Boeing engineering? Any Cdn airlines using the Max 9?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/alaska...-out-1.7076487
There are no Canadian carriers utilizing the Max 9.
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