Statistics Canada Reports II

[GreaterMontréal]

Quebec +218k YOY.

population clock is at 8,980,928. 9 million within one month. Maybe 10 million before 2030 who knows.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

crazy, unsustainable growth figures.

These growth figures are precisely what makes the real estate Ponzi Scheme sustainable

There are several billion suckers out there who aren't physically in Canada yet.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by giallo

That's an absolutely crazy number.

How are we even going to come close to supplying enough housing for this in the coming decade?

Tents.

[Bobert]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Deportations are extremely tough to manage politically. European governments with right wing populist pressure even have a huge amount of trouble deporting non-citizen criminals back to where they came from.

It sounds like an easy way to score political points but it's really tough to implement once you're actually sitting in the chair.

It’s flown under the radar but CBSA has doubled the number of deportations this year.

With no post graduate work permit extensions next year, I suspect once CBSA begins deporting classmates, friends, etc. that people went to school with the conversations are going to get really emotional.

[GreaterMontréal]

In the US, numeric growth by state. July 1, 2023

Texas : 474k
Florida : 365k
North Carolina : 140k
Georgia : 116k
South Carolina : 91k

Quebec could/should pass New Jersey in 2025 and maybe Michigan before the end of the 2020's.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Bobert

It’s flown under the radar but CBSA has doubled the number of deportations this year.

With no post graduate work permit extensions next year, I suspect once CBSA begins deporting classmates, friends, etc. that people went to school with the conversations are going to get really emotional.

Every country does deportations but you're always on a PR and political tightrope where it can start blowing up in your face at any time.

"Mass deportations" freaks people out. You need to stay away from those optics.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It sounds like an easy way to score political points but it's really tough to implement once you're actually sitting in the chair.

I have a really hard time believing significant numbers will be deported. The die has been cast so to speak, to the degree these demographics have been imported. Future flows can be cut off but even then there will be a tail of family reunification, people who become citizens then want to sponsor others, etc.

Deporting aside a lot of Canadians aren't even to the point where they accept that we can deny citizenship to anybody, at least in the long run, or that there is any justifiable distinction in rights between somebody born here vs. a nonpermanent resident.

I think the right way to manage immigration is to be clear about the purpose. Economic immigration should be aligned with meaningful training and job opportunities. Not fake degrees and McJobs. For Canada right now the need seems to be mainly in healthcare and construction, and construction is a good area to import temporary labour, but we have no way to follow through on that due to political ideology.

[Harrison]

Alberta may crack 5 million people by the end of 2024 based on these trends, which is wild. Unsure if it will ever overtake BC, but the population gap is definitley narrowing between the two.

[Bobert]

I would love to see a study on this but I suspect “family reunification” is more popular with recent immigrants than those who came 10-20 years ago. The reality is after a while they’ve built a life here and have “moved on”. Family reunification has a negative sentiment primarily because people look at it from the grandparents lens. This program also includes reuniting spouses and children as well.


Also let’s not fall down the rabbit of thinking all immigrants share a love of immigration. There’s a pull up the ladder behind you phenomenon as well.

[giallo]

Originally Posted by Harrison

Alberta may crack 5 million people by the end of 2024 based on these trends, which is wild. Unsure if it will ever overtake BC, but the population gap is definitley narrowing between the two.

It could happen, but BC would need to stop growing so quickly. Its population just blew past 5.5 million to 5.6 million in a matter of months.

[GreaterMontréal]

Originally Posted by Harrison

Alberta may crack 5 million people by the end of 2024 based on these trends, which is wild. Unsure if it will ever overtake BC, but the population gap is definitley narrowing between the two.

BC and Alberta are growing almost the same in absolute, the only difference is that Alberta is gaining more from interprovincial migration than BC.

Q3 YOY
Alberta : +75k
BC : -13k
Quebec : -7k
Ontario : -50k

pretty impressed by Quebec's performance on that front.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/...023&referencePeriods=20220701%2C20230701

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by someone123

I have a really hard time believing significant numbers will be deported. The die has been cast so to speak, to the degree these demographics have been imported. Future flows can be cut off but even then there will be a tail of family reunification, people who become citizens then want to sponsor others, etc.

Deporting aside a lot of Canadians aren't even to the point where they accept that we can deny citizenship to anybody, at least in the long run, or that there is any justifiable distinction in rights between somebody born here vs. a nonpermanent resident.

I think the right way to manage immigration is to be clear about the purpose. Economic immigration should be aligned with meaningful training and job opportunities. Not fake degrees and McJobs. For Canada right now the need seems to be mainly in healthcare and construction, and construction is a good area to import temporary labour, but we have no way to follow through on that due to political ideology.

Once again, have any of our western peers been successful at managing the temporary aspect of temporary labour? Aside from maybe the US with agricultural labour from Mexico, and even then only partially so, and these are people whose homeland is right across the border.

Someone I knew who was a senior official in the immigration department once told me that aside from tourists from economically equivalent countries, your bottom line expectation should be that anyone you let into the country is going to end up finding a way to stay permanently. This includes refugees, temporary workers, students, etc. Even visiting family members from developing countries to some degree. Obviously not all of them will actually stay, but it's easier to plan if you assume everyone who is allowed in is going to stay. And your final numbers won't actually be that far off.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Bobert

The population clock is also at 40.7M

Which is wild because it feels like just yesterday we were talking about getting to 40M. I fear the LPC and the PCs (Looking at the Ontario temp resident numbers) have lost all control on this.

If you want to create any sustainability in the numbers, where would you even begin? There’s so many pathways into the country now that really just a broad cap would be the only simple and quick solution.

Tightening on student numbers has already begun, although results are a year away. The government could turn on a dime wrt TFW, were it to choose to do so. We could decide to be less generous wrt refugees, although it seems unlikely. Immigration numbers are a matter of policy and can go up and down at the government's will.

With respect to TFWs, I've always wondered whether a requirment to pay them MORE than Canadians would earn in the same position (say, 10%) might not take care of a lot of the issue.

Given my views on government, I tend to give them credit for knowing what they are doing. In this case, however, they have been dreadful at explaining why the big numbers are necessary.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Bobert

It’s flown under the radar but CBSA has doubled the number of deportations this year.

With no post graduate work permit extensions next year, I suspect once CBSA begins deporting classmates, friends, etc. that people went to school with the conversations are going to get really emotional.

Deportations of whom? Criminals at the end of their sentences? Undocumented migrants? Unsuccessful refugee applicants? One would like to see a breakdown.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Given my views on government, I tend to give them credit for knowing what they are doing.

I tend to prefer the opposite principle: not assuming malice when stupidity works as an explanation

[Acajack]

BTW on the immigration file we were discussing earlier, this is proof of what were saying going on in France right now.

Marine Le Pen it appears may succeed in getting Emmanuel Macron to adopt a tougher immigration bill. It's been in the works with Macron's government since 2022 and has been amended several times.

They just arrived at a last-minute multi-party agreement and surprise surprise Le Pen says her party will vote for it.

Macron is now freaking out because he doesn't want to be tarred with that brush. He is now saying that he won't let the bill (his party's own!) pass if it means it's due to the votes of Le Pen's Rassemblement National members.

I think he is trying to mobilize enough votes from other parties so he doesn't need Le Pen's and he can say they don't count.

On the other hand it is going to be tough sledding for him to get those votes because the various parties on the left are all losing their 🞵🞵🞵🞵 over this bill, with allegations of racism, intolerance, xenophobia, etc.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Deportations are extremely tough to manage politically. European governments with right wing populist pressure even have a huge amount of trouble deporting non-citizen criminals back to where they came from.

It sounds like an easy way to score political points but it's really tough to implement once you're actually sitting in the chair.

Other than a few individual cases that generated media interest, I'm not aware that deportatons have been tough politically. More legally difficult than politically, from what I've seen.

[thurmas]

I see Manitoba grew by 42,000 this year which is probably the highest its been since the Wilfred Laurier prarie boom era of the early 20th century. Unfortunately our housing stock is not keeping pace as we were building over 9000 homes a year in the 1970s with minimal population growth and this past year was only able to build 6800 homes with much much stronger population growth.

[Wigs]

That's great for Manitoba! Both Man&Sask have plenty of room to grow. Winnipeg should be ever closer to 900k

[ssiguy]

From these figures, it is clear that Alberta enjoys the most sustainable and balanced population growth.

Alberta not only enjoys robust immigration rates but also a huge positive interprovincial level, the nation's youngest population, as well as a birth rate that is marginally above the national average.