The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[q12]

HALIFAX





https://halifaxpartnership.com/research-strategy/halifax-index/people/

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by q12

https://halifaxpartnership.com/research-strategy/halifax-index/people/

Needs a FEW more cities.

I find that last graph particularly interesting:
1) Halifax and Calgary seem to benefit the most of the sample set from interprovincial migration. I suspect Moncton would have a graph similar to Halifax. Cost of living causing many to move from BC/ON/Q to the "East".
2) Central Canada doesn't have a lot of folks moving there from elsewhere in Canada... this is the reverse of previous trends, and likely due to the cost of living in the bigger cities.
3) St. John's (in particular) continues to just EAT it's outposts alive.
4) Nobody can afford to move to TO or Van other than rich immigrants.
5) Winnipeg... I dunno what's up there. Ukrainians?

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by Nashe

Needs a FEW more cities.

I find that last graph particularly interesting:
1) Halifax and Calgary seem to benefit the most of the sample set from interprovincial migration. I suspect Moncton would have a graph similar to Halifax. Cost of living causing many to move from BC/ON/Q to the "East".
2) Central Canada doesn't have a lot of folks moving there from elsewhere in Canada... this is the reverse of previous trends, and likely due to the cost of living in the bigger cities.
3) St. John's (in particular) continues to just EAT it's outposts alive.
4) Nobody can afford to move to TO or Van other than rich immigrants.
5) Winnipeg... I dunno what's up there. Ukrainians?

I just looked at the data table and you're right, all of the interprovincial migration is a net negative in the Ontario cities and a net positive for the Maritime cities [Halifax gained ~8000, Moncton ~3000 and Saint John ~1500, Fredericton ~1000]. It wasn't just Ottawa, Hamilton, Toronto that had a net negative, the smaller Ontario cities lost people to interprovincial migration too, those Belleville, London, Oshawa, and Sarnia for example.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

I found this interesting infographic on Retail Talk & Share, and thought it belonged here:



This infographic has an NB bias, but includes all CMAs in Atlantic Canada.

While all the cities included show a healthy growth rate in the senior population, in terms of meaningful growth, ie the growth that influences economic growth and sustainability (working age and youth), then the growth centres are a little more select:

20 year Percentage Increase in the Youth Population:

1) Moncton - 22.2%
2) Fredericton - 10.7%
3) St. John's - 1.6%
4) Halifax - 1.3%

20 Year Percentage Increase in Working Age Population:

1) Moncton - 30.2%
2) Halifax - 24.6%
3) Fredericton - 22.5%
4) St. John's - 16.9%

It is really interesting to speculate why the working age population in Halifax is growing healthily, but, there is very little growth in the youth population in the city. One could posit this has a lot to do with the number of universities in the city, and the migration of students into the city to attend post secondary education. It might also have something to do with the white collar nature of the city and most 20-something immigrants being Yuppie DINKs as a result.

At the same time, why is the youth population growth rate in Moncton so high? Is this a reflection of the type of immigrants the city is getting? It would be really interesting to see if the Muslim population growth rate in the city is that much higher than it is in Halifax.

Early this year, the Anglophone East School Board in NB (which includes Moncton) made a ridiculous request of the provincial government for something like a dozen new schools in southeastern NB. I guess they were on to something.........

Finally, the senior's growth rates are going through the roof, no doubt explaining the current health care crisis in the country (at least in part, the pandemic did a number on us too in terms of people retiring or leaving the profession). It is interesting to note that the seniors growth rate in the CMAs is pretty much universally greater than in the CAs (Bathurst being a notable exception), indicating retirees may be moving to the larger cities once they are free of their jobs. Some of this migration might be related to wanting to live closer to their children. This was certainly true of my brother and sister-in-law who moved to Calgary from PEI because both of their children had moved out there.

This is also because CMAs are (for the most part) the only locations where new long term care facilities are being built. Top of mind I can think of five recent rural long term care facility renovations/replacements but rarely is the bed total increased. Where as the Atlantic CMAs have had quite an influx of long term care facilities and beds.

Rural facilities are hard to staff, and private long term care is wary of investing in rural sites. This could account for the disproportionate +65 numbers in CMAs.

[MonctonRad]

Good point. This is probably a factor in this, although not likely the complete explanation.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It is really interesting to speculate why the working age population in Halifax is growing healthily, but, there is very little growth in the youth population in the city.

That only appears to be the case when looking at the growth rate over the past 20 years, though, because Halifax lost so much youth between 2002 and 2012. From 2012 to 2022 the growth rate of the 14 and under population in Halifax was 12 percent. Since 2017 Halifax has had the highest youth growth rate of the cities on that chart.

The big question (I think) is why Halifax saw such a decline in youth in the oughts, while the NB cities did not. And then, why did such a total reversal occurred in the following ten years. I would guess something like: everywhere experienced youth drain to points west, but NB's cities attracted families from the north of NB, whereas families from the hinterlands of Nova Scotia mostly just left the province altogether. Now immigration and positive interprovincial migration is floating both NB and NS’ boats.

Just a guess though—I guess a detailed look at migration patterns within NB in the 2002-12 period would reveal if it’s accurate.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

That only appears to be the case when looking at the growth rate over the past 20 years, though, because Halifax lost so much youth between 2002 and 2012. From 2012 to 2022 the growth rate of the 14 and under population in Halifax was 12 percent. Since 2017 Halifax has had the highest youth growth rate of the cities on that chart.

The big question (I think) is why Halifax saw such a decline in youth in the oughts, while the NB cities did not. And then, why did such a total reversal occurred in the following ten years. I would guess something like: everywhere experienced youth drain to points west, but NB's cities attracted families from the north of NB, whereas families from the hinterlands of Nova Scotia mostly just left the province altogether. Now immigration and positive interprovincial migration is floating both NB and NS’ boats.

Just a guess though—I guess a detailed look at migration patterns within NB in the 2002-12 period would reveal if it’s accurate.

It is a little disappointing not having PEI represented on this chart. I am curious if PEI cities mirrored NS/NB or neither, during these specific time frames.

As a province PEI looks like....


2001

Total Population - 135,295

0-14: 26,650 (19.7)

15-64: 90,080 (66.6%)

65+: 18,575 (13.7%)



2011

Total Population - 140,204

0-14: 23,060 (16.4%)

15-64: 94,360 (67.4%)

65+: 22,785 (16.3%)


2021

Total Population - 154,330

0-14: 23,640 (15.3%)

15-64: 97,985 (63.5%)

65+: 32,705 (22%)

[mmmatt]

Thanks MonctonRad for posting my infographic here, you’re right it’s a better home for that kind of content. Apologies for not including PEI it was intended for an NB focused site but it would have been a good addition for more regional context. Glad to see also someone liked the anime character icons.

Haven’t been posting here for a while but I do check in from time to time!

[Taeolas]

This CBC article is mainly about the Halifax housing gap, but it also has an infographic for the other municipalities in Nova Scotia and their housing needs and anticipated housing needs.

From peeking around the graphic if I'm reading it right, it looks like while Halifax has the greatest gap by far, Cape Breton surprisingly has some largish gaps as well. Sydney's gap is 1000 homes, and even the other municipalities on the island have gaps of hundreds, or even almost 500.

The South shore seems to be in decent shape for the most part, aside from Lunenburg/Bridgewater area where there's another big gap of about a thousand.

Amherst and Antigonish both has a largest gap of about 500, but Truro and Stellarton area seem to be in decent shape. Wolfville area seems to be borderline okayish.

[Spitfire75]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

This CBC article is mainly about the Halifax housing gap, but it also has an infographic for the other municipalities in Nova Scotia and their housing needs and anticipated housing needs.

Take that housing needs report with a big grain of salt. The report used census data from 2016-2021 to predict future trends, which we know has significantly changed in the last couple years.



For example in this CBC article where the report said Pictou had "no anticipated demand for housing in the near term," adding there might even be a "surplus by 2023." But, the town saw a 94 per cent increase in the median home price over three years and the cost of new rentals coming on the market can be as high as $2,000 per month.



Another example from the same article, the town of Stewiacke where the report identified a gap of 50 units, and the town's assessment suggested five new units could be completed annually. But, in the last three years the town has approved 74 new single-family homes, most of which are "either underway or built." There are also nine different apartment projects approved totalling 86 units.



It really makes me wonder how accurate the report's numbers are for other municipalities.

[MonctonRad]

For reference purposes, here are the populations of the Atlantic provinces as of early morning January 2nd, 2024. These numbers come from the Statistics Canada population clock. We can use this information to compare growth rates for the upcoming year.

NS - 1.070,247
NB - 845,207
NL - 541, 407
PE - 176,232

TOTAL - 2,633,093

[mmmatt]

Apologies this is a very NB focused chart but something I created for an NB (Facebook) group which was subsequently deleted for a reason outside my full understanding.

The province of NB has all statistics for school populations by grade in a detailed dataset available to the public online, this is a chart I made showing us the change in the "TOP 15" largest schools in the province.

Please note the data for 2023 is at the end of last school year, this is the most recent available, there has been continued growth in many schools for our current school year.

Someone mentioned in the comments before deletion that Le Sommet and Ecole Champlain are now smaller due to the completion of the new francophone school in Moncton East this year. I bolded them because it is historically odd for them to be so large since they are not high schools.

Someone else mentioned Riverview High has jumped up again to over 1200 students this year.

[mmmatt]

Here is another New Brunswick focused statistics post related to our recent local governance reform.

These are 2023 numbers.

For more details on the areas and the local governance reforms in general the province has this handy website: https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/corporate/promo/local-governance.html

First I have a look at the "1 Billion Club" of New Brunswick, municipalities which have passed the billion dollar mark for property values.

To me Shediac is the biggest interest here, they are the fastest growing percentage wise for property values which accounts for new construction and natural increase in existing properties. If these numbers remain similar Shediac could rocket up to 7th place in the province within the next few years passing even Miramichi.

The other big news is the new versions of Moncton and Fredericton both have surpassed the 10 Billion mark in property value. With the essentially contiguous urban area of Moncton/Dieppe hitting the 15 Billion mark.

I included some information about tax rates and the provincial grant money afforded to each entity since it is another interesting sidebar. For the "Grant vs Tax Base" please note this is exaggerated for better comparison otherwise the numbers are too small to be meaningful.



Next I have broken down each "sub region" which I kind of invented based on geography.

First is the Capital Region. If my "Grant vs Tax Base" column can be understood as an informal barometer for the fiscal health of an entity this region is certainly experiencing overall excellent fiscal health! Most of the areas in this region are growing quickly as well above 10% in tax base year over year.



The next region is North East, we all know this region has struggled in recent decades. None of the entities in this region saw their tax base increase more than 10% and the provincial grants are higher than average as well.



Next is the North West region.



The South East region is next, home to the most (7) members of the billion dollar club. This region is seeing some of the fastest growth in tax base and is generally in good fiscal standing.



Finally the South West region, mixed results with some areas growing quick and others growing slower. I don't know whats going on in McAdam but they are certainly needing a lot of help from the province they have the largest per capita. Saint John has the largest grant in terms of actual dollars but I think this is related to some kind of correction due to intentional undervaluation of heavy industrial properties?



Lastly here is a look at the regional totals. Amazing to think the small capital region encompasses nearly as much tax base as the entire north half of the province

Also astounding to see the provincial tax base grow by 9 billion in a single year, the tide of immigration from various sources is certainly pushing property values way up in general.

[MonctonRad]

Very interesting stats mmmatt.

So, the greater Moncton POPCTR (Moncton, Riverview, Dieppe) would have a total property valuation of $17,866,000,000.

These three communities represent half of the top six communities in the province in terms of valuation.

[darkharbour]

Some amazing work pulled together by mmmatt, thank you! Can't wait to pour over this in more detail. I will say though at first glance as a Johner, the ridiculous industrial assessment values continue to be highlighted in data like this, for example the entire City of Saint John has an assessed property value of ~$10 billion but we have a single refinery property that is probably worth nearly that much alone (not to mention all of the other large mills and plants in the city). Then there is the Port, which doesn't get factored into that value either, but as evidenced in the recent AIM disaster is very much a part of the costs of operating the municipality (which is partly offset by a number of other factors like the operating subsidy, but not nearly enough).

My point is that the valuation of industrial properties is really out of whack in NB and that doesn't provide much equity for any of the larger cities IMO, not just Saint John. I'm not saying that we need to jump the assessments on all industries by several billion right away, but the fact that as an example the largest refinery in the country is actually paying less in property tax now than it did in 2021 is just silly at this point.

[adamuptownsj]

How Fredericton Junction and Tracy avoided amalgamation, I have no idea. It's the only two 'miniscule villages sharing a border' setup remaining in the province. Clear COI (Route 101), existing shared services, combined population ~1,350, another couple hundred people between Blissville and Upper Tracy that could be absorbed.

That great tax base post reminds me that much of the Fundy RD should have been municipalized. It's not the only rural district that should be folded, too. Southeast is 7 discontiguous chunks that could be paired easily with neighbouring local governments.

-The empty eastern portion in Saint John County between Route 111 and Fundy National Park to Fundy-St. Martins
-Mispec/Cape Spencer to Saint John
-The Hunter Lake area to Quispamsis or Fundy-St Martins
-The remainder of Kings County west of Public Landing to Grand Bay-Westfield
-Turn the Kingston Peninsula into a Rural Municipality of its own
-Public Landing to Evandale along Route 102 could choose between the Kingston Peninsula, Arcadia, Valley Waters, and GB-W
-Welsford and Clarendon could then fall into the Capital Rural District or GB-W.

[MonctonRad]

Very good points about the industrial valuation in Saint John.

Moncton has a large industrial sector as well, but is confined mostly to warehousing, transportation and small manufacturing. I wonder how this affects the valuation stats. Is the effect similar to SJ, or different?

[KnoxfordGuy]

Those Saint John numbers. Talk about the elephant in the room haha

[DyAm00394]

A new CBC article:

N.B. finished last in Maritimes in 2023 housing starts, despite cancelling rent caps

"Efforts among the Maritime provinces to have more housing built quickly show Prince Edward Island and Nova Scotia are having more success than New Brunswick, despite the New Brunswick government's loosening of tenant rent protections last year in an effort to boost development.

According to data compiled by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, New Brunswick saw construction begin on 4,547 new housing units from January through December 2023, including houses, townhouses, apartments and condominiums.

That was 2.8 per cent fewer units beginning construction than in 2022.

The 2023 total represents 545 new housing starts in New Brunswick per 100,000 people, based on July 1 population numbers.

That was below the national average for the year and well behind numbers over the same period posted by both P.E.I., which had 655 housing starts per 100,000, and Nova Scotia, which had 676 per 100,000.

"That's disappointing. I hadn't heard that before," said Warren Maddox, the executive director of Fredericton Homeless Shelters Inc.

Maddox has been advocating for a quicker response by government to New Brunswick's housing shortage but said even he didn't realize other provinces were doing that much better getting new housing started.

"There's a lot of talk. Everyone knows what needs to happen," said Maddox.

"We can talk about it all we want. We need to get some housing built."

All three Maritime provinces have made new housing a priority to cope with surges in their populations.

At the end of 2023, 2.1 million people were living in the region according to estimates by Statistics Canada — 152,000 more than three years earlier.

That growth has outstripped the supply of housing in each province and triggered escalations in real estate prices and upward pressure on the cost of rent. It's also driven hundreds of vulnerable residents into homelessness.

Last June, the New Brunswick government estimated the province needs 6,000 new housing units per year to deal with the shortage and said it would be relying heavily on private developers to make that happen by "creating conditions" that incentivize building.

One of those incentives implemented at the end of 2022 was to cancel a policy that capped the size of rent increases New Brunswick tenants can be charged each year.

In January 2023 under questioning at the Legislature's Crown corporations committee, the chief executive officer of Service New Brunswick, the body in charge of housing issues at the time, told MLAs that developers and landlords had convinced the province that a hard limit on rent increases was impeding new construction.

"The rent cap itself had some negative consequences," said Alan Roy during his testimony.

"We were advised and made aware in some of the stakeholder consultations we were having that it was discouraging development of new units."

Kent South Liberal MLA Benoît Bourque, a former Service New Brunswick minister, said he found it "disturbing" that the government killed rent cap protections for tenants based only on comments from developers, and asked Roy if the province had any independent data to show rent cap protections for tenants were restricting the construction of new units.

"No," said Roy.

"It would have been comments I would have received first-hand from individuals that were either pulling out of a province because they implemented a rent cap and they told us first-hand if that's what's happening in a jurisdiction I won't be building there — so that is first-hand evidence that I would have heard."

Bourque pointed out that several provinces — including P.E.I. and Nova Scotia — have rent caps and asked if they have seen housing construction suffer as a result.

" Are you aware of any jurisdictions where rent caps stifled the development of rental housing?" asked Bourque.

"No, I am not aware whether it stifled or not," replied Roy.

" Again I was going with verbatim comments I would have received from landlords in particular."

Matthew Hayes is a sociology professor at St. Thomas University and a spokesperson for the New Brunswick Coalition for Tenants Rights.

He said because eliminating rent caps for tenants in New Brunswick did nothing to boost new housing construction in 2023 and retaining the policy in the other Maritime provinces appeared not to undermine development, there is no reason caps should not be reinstated.

"We absolutely need a rent cap as quickly as possible. That is a minimal and costless intervention into the market to provide security for New Brunswickers." said Hayes.

"The majority of Canadians have rent control. There's been lots of development in other provinces. Lack of development here is completely unrelated to rent control," he said.

Julia Woodhall-Melnik, a housing specialist at the University of New Brunswick and co-director of its Housing, Mobilization and Engagement Research Lab, said it is difficult to draw conclusions from one year of data but it does appear to her the government's belief that rent caps restrict development has been debunked by what's happening in the three provinces.

"I'd like to see the data over a longer period of time but what it is showing me right now is that there was no evidence for the claim that rent control would impact development," said Woodhall-Melnik. "Right now that argument doesn't look like it holds weight with what we're seeing."

In an email, a spokesperson for the New Brunswick government said it is looking into what 2023 housing start numbers show but it has not yet finished that analysis.

"We are going to need more time," said the email. "We are waiting to verify a few details before we are able to share what we have."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-bruns...-housing-starts-maritimes-2023-1.7088166

[Pugsley]

Not at all surprising given the lack of professional expertise we have leading this province. Each department has "leadership" that is ill-equipped education-wise or lacks any relevant experience to do anything effective in New Brunswick. We have a former Baptist minister running public safety, a former local newspaper journalist in charge of heritage/culture, another former journalist for a community newspaper in charge of seniors, and a a former Radio Broadcaster in charge of our finances. To name just a few.

How do we allow people with ZERO background experience make such important decisions on behalf of taxpayers is beyond my comprehension. I have 25 years of corporate executive-level experience and three degrees and even I wouldn't feel equipped to be in charge of the province's finances. But here we are!