Normally I hate quoting simpleflying, but this article is of particular interest, and has some interesting numbers supporting Ethiopian's plans to launch YUL and increase service to YYZ.
https://simpleflying.com/ethiopian-a...-destinations/
Quote:
Ethiopian Airlines Plans 2 New North American Destinations Per Year
Ethiopian Airlines presently has six passenger destinations in North America: Atlanta, Chicago O'Hare, Newark, New York JFK, Toronto, and Washington Dulles.
The carrier's Chief Commercial Officer says additional destinations include Denver, Minneapolis, Seattle, Houston, and Montreal.
Ethiopian Airlines has big plans for the US and Canada. The carrier's Chief Commercial Officer, Lemma Yadecha Gudeta, told me that two new passenger destinations are expected to be added "per year over the next few years." Subject to the numerous usual considerations, this seems bullish but exciting. He spoke to Simple Flying at the relaunch of its London Gatwick service, during which he also disclosed European plans.
While Guedta did not state all destinations likely to see the Star Alliance carrier, he was upfront about its North American network development. He stated the following places without hesitation but did not provide further details, including timeframes.
For context, I have used booking data to provide sub-Saharan African passenger traffic data for the year to September 2023, including each city's top two destinations. An intriguing consideration is that Ethiopian is already among the largest operators in most of these five markets, with passengers transferring to its services en route. Could it backfill the lost traffic?
- Denver: 59,000 roundtrip passengers (Johannesburg, Addis Ababa); plus Star Alliance connections
- Minneapolis: ~108,000 (Nairobi, Addis Ababa); well-known for its large African population
- Seattle: 92,000 (Nairobi, Addis Ababa)
- Houston: 130,000 (Lagos, Nairobi); plus Star Alliance connections; previously served
- Montreal: 174,000 (Dakar, Abidjan), perhaps suggesting it would operate via Lomé; it falls to around 130,000 when more geographically suitable markets are considered for Ethiopian
Guedta also made it clear that he hopes frequencies can be increased in particular existing markets. He specifically mentioned Toronto served five weekly using the Airbus A350-900 (see above).
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The idea of using Lomé, Togo (LFW) as a stopover to YUL is interesting, to say the least. ET has a secondary hub there, through subsidiary Asky Airlines, which seems like a well run outfit with a fleet of over a dozen 737s. The airline has apparently been profitable for several years now, and provides feed for ET's flights from LFW to IAD and EWR. So the addition of YUL definitely makes sense through LFW, as 1. the non stop westbound isn't possible due to ADD's altitude, so they will need to stop somewhere, and 2. ET will be able to get additional feed at LFW, particularly from DSS and ABJ, the two largest unserved markets in Africa from YUL.
All of this being said, Canada and Togo still don't have a proper bilateral air agreement. Nothing is available online, only that
both countries concluded a codesharing air transport agreement in 2013.
Also, the ATA between Ethiopia and Canada needs to be amended as well, as ET are limited to 5x weekly frequencies, based on their current frequency to YYZ. ET's current service from ADD to YYZ is via FCO, while the return is non stop. Could they launch YUL via Europe as well? Maybe.
Interesting development for sure, even if ET has been on record for several years now as wanting more rights to Canada. Let's see how all of this plays out. A lot of elements need to fall into place for this to happen.
I'm hearing ET is struggling with their service to ATL, and that it will most likely be canceled soon. ET has around ~60 widebodies, with another 25 on order. They clearly want to expand their footprint in NA, so I have no doubt once the agreements are secured, service will commence, especially if the numbers above are accurate.
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