California seeing a sizable influx of new residents relocating from Texas

[dimondpark]

Meh, I don't like anecdotal stories presented as a trend but there is data in this story which I have bolded.

Personally, I have meet a few people that have either moved to the Bay Area from Texas(Austin or DFW) or were people that moved there and moved back, usually due to their jobs, only 1 know is out of protest of the political climate there, but again this is just my personal experience on this matter, we need more time and data to call this a thing, but still, it's interesting.

California seeing a sizable influx of new residents relocating from Texas


SOUTH BAY NEWS
California seeing a sizable influx of new residents relocating from Texas
sanfrancisco
BY MAX DARROW

NOVEMBER 21, 2023 / 7:30 PM PST / CBS SAN FRANCISCO


SAN JOSE -- For more than a decade, the so-called "Great California Exodus" has seen residents leave the state in droves, mostly because of the high cost of living.

The pandemic only made it worse with the rise of remote work leading hundreds of thousands to head to places like Washington state, Idaho, and especially Texas.

But plenty of folks are bucking the trend and making their way to the Bay Area from other states.

There were a lot of reasons why Allison Hallas was excited to move her family to California.

The weather was one of the top ones, which has made her daily walks with her dog, Whiskey, much more enjoyable than they previously were before she moved to the Bay Area.


"I always wanted to take him on daily walks. We'd get into a habit of it for a couple of weeks - the weather would be great. But then it would be pouring down rain, tornadoes, ice, hundred-degree humidity," she said.

Hallas and her family now live in Pleasanton. They moved here from outside of Dallas, Texas, at the beginning of the year.

"We fell in love with the area," she said. "It's just gorgeous scenery. The weather is so nice."

Hallas says even though the cost of living in California was a bit intimidating, her family was ready for a change. So she found a job at a tech company in San Jose, they sold their house and headed west.

"Everything happened so fast, but it all fell into place like it was just meant to be," she said.

The typical reaction back home, when they told everyone they were moving from Texas to California?

"'What?! You're moving to California? Everybody is moving here!'" Hallas said.

The California exodus is a story that's been ongoing for several years. While it is slowing down, it is still happening. New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows that California lost about 102,000 residents to Texas from 2021-2022. However, the numbers also show that California gained more residents from Texas than from any other state at around 42,000.

"It seemed to people like we were the only ones going the opposite way. But then oh wait, there are a bunch of people from Texas here," Hallas said.

While California is still seeing a net loss of residents per year to Texas, the data shows the number of Texans coming to California is increasing.

...

https://www.cbsnews.com/sanfrancisco/new...-of-new-residents-relocating-from-texas/

Also,
Average Home Value:
Santa Clara County, CA $1,524,901-- +1.6% year-over-year
Travis County, TX----------$507,743-- -10.0% year-over-year
source: Zillow

Maybe Austin has a larger inventory? Maybe Bay Area locals are less fearful during economic ups and downs that it shakes the real estate market far less? Who knows? But during this time of uncertainty, home prices here are far less volatile.

And then there's this:
Q1 2023 Metro Area Median Weekly Wage: Information:
$7,934---San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
$6,364---San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
$5,464---Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma, WA
$4,232---Boulder, CO
$3,882---Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
$3,851---New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
$3,683---Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
$3,513---Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
$3,290---Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
$3,289---Austin-Round Rock, TX
$3,219---Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
$3,202---Pittsburgh, PA
$3,013---Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington, TX
$2,988---Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
$2,975---Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
$2,972---St Louis, MO-IL
$2,939---Raleigh, NC
$2,930---Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
$2,923---Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
$2,915---Ann Arbor, MI
$2,824---Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
$2,783---San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
$2,729---Jacksonville, FL
$2,664---Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
$2,648---Charleston-North Charleston, SC

So maybe a house in Santa Clara costs $1.5M, but neighboring San Benito, which is part of the San Jose MSA too, is half the price-at $765,779(Zillow), neighboring Alameda is at $1,077,996(expensive but 30% cheaper than Santa Clara) and if they really want to pay Austin prices, the trade off is a soul crushing commute to San Joaquin($522,000) and thousands of people actually do make that awful commute.

Anyhow, food for thought.

[JManc]

What kind of moron would move from Texas to California???

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by JManc

What kind of moron would move from Texas to California???

I was visiting relatives in Arlington for a few days last week and gas was $2.75 a gallon, my niece said prices were going up--I was like, shut up.

[ChiSoxRox]

Edit: Took the bait

[Gantz]

Texas is a second most populous state and its close to Cali, so yes *some* people will move to California. What matters is the net inflows, and the net inflows are not in favor of CA.

[TWAK]

Originally Posted by Gantz

Texas is a second most populous state and its close to Cali, so yes *some* people will move to California. What matters is the net inflows, and the net inflows are not in favor of CA.

Interesting response, comparing it to when Texans were moving to CA. People were making a huge deal about it, so it's only fair to also make a huge deal for people moving from Texas to California. Perhaps they are political or cultural refugees, like how the people moving out of CA were. I have said before that they can get that "Texas experience" (if you know what I mean) in rural Northern California. IIRC there was a thread recently about people moving back to California.
*don't actually elaborate if you know what I mean, don't want this to be closed like every other CA thread! Keep things vague.

Originally Posted by dimondpark

I was visiting relatives in Arlington for a few days last week and gas was $2.75 a gallon, my niece said prices were going up--I was like, shut up.

Proximity to all that oil infrastructure plays a role.

[DZH22]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

And then there's this:
Q1 2023 Metro Area Median Weekly Wage: Information:
$7,934---San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
$6,364---San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
$5,464---Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma, WA
$4,232---Boulder, CO
$3,882---Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
$3,851---New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
$3,683---Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
$3,513---Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
$3,290---Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
$3,289---Austin-Round Rock, TX
$3,219---Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
$3,202---Pittsburgh, PA
$3,013---Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington, TX
$2,988---Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
$2,975---Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA
$2,972---St Louis, MO-IL
$2,939---Raleigh, NC
$2,930---Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
$2,923---Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
$2,915---Ann Arbor, MI
$2,824---Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
$2,783---San Diego-Carlsbad, CA
$2,729---Jacksonville, FL
$2,664---Miami-Ft Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL
$2,648---Charleston-North Charleston, SC

Can you explain this chart better? Where did it come from? Is it measured at the household level or the individual level? I have a hard time believing that the median income around Boston, ie half the people make more and half the people make less, is $191,516 a year.

For instance, a simple google search gave me this response:
"In 2021, the median household income of the 1.9M households in Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH grew to $99,039 from the previous year's value of $93,537."

So (A) that measures by HOUSEHOLDS and (B) it's barely over half the total listed in the chart above. What numbers are you presenting here exactly?

[Wigs]

Originally Posted by JManc

What kind of moron would move from Texas to California???

Yeah, you tell'em

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by DZH22

Can you explain this chart better? Where did it come from? Is it measured at the household level or the individual level? I have a hard time believing that the median income around Boston, ie half the people make more and half the people make less, is $191,516 a year.

For instance, a simple google search gave me this response:
"In 2021, the median household income of the 1.9M households in Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH grew to $99,039 from the previous year's value of $93,537."

So (A) that measures by HOUSEHOLDS and (B) it's barely over half the total listed in the chart above. What numbers are you presenting here exactly?

sorry, this is the average weekly wage specifically for workers in the Information Industry located in that metro area---so it's not necessarily people that live there, but what jobs in that field in that geographic area pay on as a weekly average. Oh, from bls.gov

[dimondpark]

You can rank by counties too, for example...

Q1 2023 Counties by Average Weekly Wage: Computer Progamming:
$18,313--Park, MT(33 number of workers)
$9,702---Douglas, NV(121)
$9,135---Albemarle, VA(642)
$9,036---Childress, TX(75)
$8,508---Alameda, CA(7,721)
$7,901---Roosevelt, MT(3)
$7,621---Essex, MA(1,397)
$6,972---King, WA(18,737)
$6,745---Maui, HI(63)
$6,477---Hancock, ME(37)
$6,284---San Mateo, CA(14,264)
$6,041---Santa Clara, CA(48,828)
$5,705---Hood River, OR(37)
$5,440---New York, NY(42,054)
$5,423---Teton, WY(102)
$5,353---San Francisco, CA(52,245)
$5,352---Boundary, ID(10)
$5,085---Montrose, CO(37)
$5,049---Bradley, TN(92)
$4,819---Steans, MN(92)

bls.gov

[skysoar]

Originally Posted by Gantz

Texas is a second most populous state and its close to Cali, so yes *some* people will move to California. What matters is the net inflows, and the net inflows are not in favor of CA.

I was in Southern California this week and I will say from Rancho Cucamonga to Riverside to Carlsbad is one of the most beautiful and impressive areas in this country. The mountains, valleys, and ocean fronts full of people. If I were not entrenched in my business I would love to move there as opposed to Texas.

[dktshb]

Originally Posted by JManc

What kind of moron would move from Texas to California???

We just hired an attorney from a private practice in Houston. She picked up her family (Husband and 2 kids) and lives in the East Bay and can't get over how much happier the whole family is. They absolutely love it here. She is still a bit freaked out about BART and drives to work though.

[chris08876]

California would see an even bigger influx of folks and with it, tax payers if they maybe shut down community input and built more affordable housing and increased that supply! That state has the potential for 70 million residents if they put their development and density hat on. The Japan of the U.S..

Reality...

LA County has all the potential for an American Tokyo... just needs a rework. A Tokyo with Palm Trees. 6-10 floor structures replacing all of those single family homes with the support structures like schools, PD, expanded hospitals... some expanded transit, maybe Earthquake proof subways... and you got yourself a cool vision.

[Dariusb]

Do you guys think that a lot of the people leaving Texas for California are people returning to California are those who left during the pandemic?

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by chris08876

LA County has all the potential for an American Tokyo... just needs a rework. A Tokyo with Palm Trees. 6-10 floor structures replacing all of those single family homes with the support structures like schools, PD, expanded hospitals... some expanded transit, maybe Earthquake proof subways... and you got yourself a cool vision.

All that is fine and dandy and every urbanist's dream, but who's going to pay for it? Things like the Sepulveda Transit Corridor is projected to cost at least $10.8 billion, Vermont Subway at least $8 billion, BART SJ extension at least $12.2 billion, The Portal at least $8.25 billion, a Second Transbay tunnel at least $29 billion. These are things that should've been done yesterday, and are only a small fraction of what we need to come remotely close to Tokyo's rail network.

Vision is easy. Funding and execution is the hard part.

[38 Geary]

Originally Posted by dktshb

We just hired an attorney from a private practice in Houston. She picked up her family (Husband and 2 kids) and lives in the East Bay and can't get over how much happier the whole family is. They absolutely love it here. She is still a bit freaked out about BART and drives to work though.

I'm not sure why people are freaked out about BART tbh. The trains are new and clean and the vast majority of the riders are "normal" people. Now that they've reduced trains from 10 car trains to 6 car trains, packing "regular" people in even closer, there's supposedly even less crime or something from what I saw somewhere. Even before then it wasn't that bad. There was maybe the occasional unsavory encounter but they were usually pretty fleeting and not particularly remarkable, even later at night. The problem is people only report the occasional bad encounters, and no one cares to reports their normal experiences. The main issue I see is fare evasion but BART is working on replacing the fare gates.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by homebucket

All that is fine and dandy and every urbanist's dream, but who's going to pay for it? Things like the Sepulveda Transit Corridor is projected to cost at least $10.8 billion, Vermont Subway at least $8 billion, BART SJ extension at least $12.2 billion, The Portal at least $8.25 billion, a Second Transbay tunnel at least $29 billion. These are things that should've been done yesterday, and are only a small fraction of what we need to come remotely close to Tokyo's rail network.

Vision is easy. Funding and execution is the hard part.

And, of course, we would need to figure out a way to provide water to an additional 30 million Californians--and then pay for that, too. Ditto for electricity--where does that come from, and who pays for that?

[gochujang]

Originally Posted by homebucket

All that is fine and dandy and every urbanist's dream, but who's going to pay for it? Things like the Sepulveda Transit Corridor is projected to cost at least $10.8 billion, Vermont Subway at least $8 billion, BART SJ extension at least $12.2 billion, The Portal at least $8.25 billion, a Second Transbay tunnel at least $29 billion. These are things that should've been done yesterday, and are only a small fraction of what we need to come remotely close to Tokyo's rail network.

Vision is easy. Funding and execution is the hard part.

All those together add up to $68.25B. That's just a bit over 1% of annual federal spending.

Sometimes people forget that we are in fact the richest nation on Earth and we can pretty easily afford this kind of stuff.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by JManc

What kind of moron would move from Texas to California???

I guess I'm a moron, because I would already have moved to California if I could afford it as a retiree. For me, it's the ugly political culture wars in Texas. Some of my more affluent friends have already made the move, and for the same reason I would if I could.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by gochujang

All those together add up to $68.25B. That's just a bit over 1% of annual federal spending.

Sometimes people forget that we are in fact the richest nation on Earth and we can pretty easily afford this kind of stuff.

For a transit system in just one metro. Plus I don't think something like this would totally subsidized by the federal government but local and state taxes and bonds. The Bay Area is still pretty auto oriented unlike cities in Japan. I would never be without a car anywhere outside SF proper.