Statistics Canada Reports II

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by niwell

Indeed. My — mandated 1% max increase to salary band and 3-4% merit increase (until I'm maxed out within the band) add up to a LOT more than a much higher percentage to minimum wage...

Nobody is able to comfortably rent on minimum wage these days unless they have been in a rent-controlled place for quite some time.

Sounds like you and I are in exactly the same boat, as far as increases are concerned.

I feel like my purchasing power, based on my take home pay, has declined by 20% over 4 years. Thanks in no small part to Doug Ford's conservatives.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by thewave46

More worryingly, if the overall inflation continues to be driven by high increase in the cost of shelter/food (as it seems to be) and not the other 55% weighting, next year's minimum wage increases will be much lower.

Man, that's really epically facepalmy (to consider that the government will brag about "successfully adjusting people's welfare checks to inflation!" when the official inflation figure -- the one that drives all adjustments -- is strongly pushed towards the low side by the (relatively) cheap(er) prices of intercontinental plane travel, brand new iPhones, and brand new Teslas!)

Marie-Nite-Antoinette will tell homeless people whose local food bank has run out of supply that at least flying to the French Riviera is cheaper, as is a new Tesla Model 3 (you can live in that thing, you know that!) so that contrary to what they may think, they're officially better off now than before!

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by Nite

I really don't get your point, the poorest New Brunswickers say wages increase at 2x the inflation rate in 2023 and it's not good enough??

Thanks for me letting me know, I won't bother engaging in the future if you can't grasp that.

[harls]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Thanks for me letting me know, I won't bother engaging in the future if you can't grasp that.

Guy can't grasp that drowning in an inch of water is the same as 10 feet.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by harls

Guy can't grasp that drowning in an inch of water is the same as 10 feet.

I don't think Nite's point is that life is just perfect and we are living in a utopia.

His point is that life is "better" than it was before.

Everyone on this board has gotten real damn negative over the last 2 years or so, and I think that skews a lot of things.

Statistics show that poverty is at record lows and median incomes continue to be at record highs.

The "only" major decline in Canada in the last 10 years is housing costs, and even that is generally relative, and a lot of that is completely screwed by the temporarily high interest rates right now which have rapidly thrown the entire real estate market out of whack in a major way.

Plus of Course Trudeau's plan to drive up low-wage worker populations in the country which is completely screwing with the low end of the real estate market..

[someone123]

The problem is that housing is a necessity and so getting housing wrong can screw over living standards to an arbitrary degree (to the point where some people die because they are in tents in the winter). Saying that Canada is doing okay except for housing right now is kind of like the DC mayor who supposedly said crime in DC wasn't so bad aside from the killings.

It's also the same people who keep getting screwed harder and harder while other demographics do great, and some people say it balances out on average.

[Innsertnamehere]

Originally Posted by someone123

The problem is that housing is a necessity and so getting housing wrong can screw over living standards to an arbitrary degree (to the point where some people die because they are in tents in the winter). Saying that Canada is doing okay except for housing right now is kind of like the DC mayor who supposedly said crime in DC wasn't so bad aside from the killings.

It's also the same people who keep getting screwed harder and harder while other demographics do great, and some people say it balances out on average.

Oh I don't disagree. the destruction of the lower end of the real estate market over the last 15 years has had massive equity implications and is driving a lot of the problems in Canadian society - even if those lower incomes are technically earning more than they ever have.

What's happening right now as well is a lot of rapid shifts in things through high inflation and a rapidly changing economy. A lot of things that are more of a "slow burn" normally are happening very quickly, making a lot of people feel the pain quite rapidly and not giving them enough time to really adapt. Normally certain careers slowly decline in median wages as societies priorities shift.. now that's happening in a few years. A lot of people in those jobs meanwhile are seeing wages effectively at rates way below where they were just a few short years ago.. it's tough.

it's why inflation needs to die a quick and painful death. It, and the required response to it through high interest rates, is making an already challenging real estate market even more extreme.

Give it 3 years and a lot of the pain right now should work its way out of the system.. especially if Canada can figure out a way to get real estate demand closer to that of supply.. that part I'm more doubtful of though.

[someone123]

Is there a track record of any of the Anglosphere democracies unambiguously fixing any major quality of life issue during the past 30 years or so? From my point of view I mostly just see the same tired old politics that have resulted in these issues slowly building up over decades and accelerating in recent years as denial of the obvious problems has hit a comical level. The same sacred cows remain unslaughtered on the same pedestals and if anything have more gold piled on them. Examples are the bloating civil service and non-means-tested firehoses of cash for Boomers with 7 figure net worths.

In Canada the big 2 problems are housing and healthcare. In the US I guess they're education and healthcare.

[Innsertnamehere]

US healthcare problems are very different than Canada's - there it's access, here it's quality of care. It's a massively different kind of problem.

I think it's disingenuous to say that public policy hasn't had any successes in 30 years. Lots of programs have been quite successful. Trudeau's best policy for example was the Canada Child Benefit - it led to massive reductions in child poverty and simplified a complex program of childrens benefits into a simple, monthly cheque which goes much further to helping parents with the costs of raising children.

Similarly I think programs like all-day kindergarden in Ontario, $10 a day daycare, etc. have been generally successful programs which help younger families with costs. Other issues like high secondary education costs have quietly disappeared from the media as they have been addressed.

the wider issue is that certian problems are too challenging to fix on one single program - housing is one of them. We made a mistake when we killed public housing construction in the 1980's and 1990's - which is coming to roost now. Then we decided to double down on NIMBYISM in the 2000's and restricted supply of homes in the largest Canadian markets.. and surprise, surprise, housing affordability became an issue. For a while it was focused only to the supply restricted form of housing (ground related housing), but then Trudeau decided to ramp up immigration to levels supply couldn't keep up with.. and we got where we are.

Housing could be fixed with two relatively simple strokes:
1. reduce immigration to allow the construction industry to keep up with demand, or find a way to increase supply. One is likely far easier than the other..
2. remove restrictions on supply which force the market to build the kind of supply that the market doesn't want. Ford took a stab at this last year for the GTA and that went just swimmingly for him.. so good luck on that front.

For Healthcare, the crunch here has been known to be coming for a long, long time. Boomers are hitting their high healthcare cost years and nobody should be surprised that it's straining the system to it's limits. Throw on a pandemic and additional long-term demands on the system resulting from it, and well..

The only fix to healthcare is massive investment in the system. South of the border, the private sector has done that, with health sciences being a completely booming industry for the last 2 decades, but access remains an issue.. North of the border, The government doesn't have the access to the capital needed.

No easy fix there. I suspect a partial privatization of healthcare by allowing people to switch to private providers through insurance would be warranted to take a bit of pressure off the public system, if even for things like routine procedures. Allowing people to do private MRIs, etc. would improve care standards a lot, and it's not without precedence in Canada already. It would also have to be coupled by continued extensive investment in the public system to allow quality services for those accessing public healthcare, which would remain the vast majority of users.

The problem here is that often the solutions to the problems are politically untenable (massive upzoning and permitting sprawl again, partial privitization of healthcare or massive tax increases).. so politicians dither. it's the way of the world.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

I think it's disingenuous to say that public policy hasn't had any successes in 30 years. Lots of programs have been quite successful.

There are spending programs that aren't bad, assuming we don't ask too many questions about the government's financial health, but the point is the tough problems that need solving today have been around for many years and are generally worsening over time. It makes sense that people will lose confidence in that kind of environment. 5-15 years ago younger people were told that they needed to stop buying avocado toast and would get a house eventually. Now the story is that affordability is massively worse but maybe it'll fix itself when the Millennials are in their 40's.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by lio45

Man, that's really epically facepalmy (to consider that the government will brag about "successfully adjusting people's welfare checks to inflation!" when the official inflation figure -- the one that drives all adjustments -- is strongly pushed towards the low side by the (relatively) cheap(er) prices of intercontinental plane travel, brand new iPhones, and brand new Teslas!)

Marie-Nite-Antoinette will tell homeless people whose local food bank has run out of supply that at least flying to the French Riviera is cheaper, as is a new Tesla Model 3 (you can live in that thing, you know that!) so that contrary to what they may think, they're officially better off now than before!

the CPI uses the average cost of phones and cars bought, so saying brand new iphone or tesla is irrelevant since they are mixed with cheaper cars bought as well
so are you saying poor Canadian don't buy plane tickets, phones or cars and they only spend their money on food and shelter???

the CPI is a basket of goods that represent what the average of entire Canadian population spend their money on.
Some components will always be inflating faster than another, but since the average Canadian spend their money on all the components, then higher inflation in one components is compensated by lower inflation in another area. higher housing and food cost effect poorer canadian more but also the fall in gas and transportation cost, clothing also effects them more than wealthier Canadians.



https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/231121/cg-a002-eng.htm


Going back to my New Brunswicker on Minimum wage, assuming NB inflation rates are close to the national average
This is how things compare from a year ago

They saw a wage increase of 7.3%
Shelter cost increase of 6.1%
Food cost increase of 5.6%
Transportation cost decrease of -0.4%
Clothing and footwear cost decrease of -1.2%

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Nite

the CPI uses the average cost of phones and cars bought, so saying brand new iphone or tesla is irrelevant since they are mixed with cheaper cars bought as well
so are you saying poor Canadian don't buy plane tickets, phones or cars and they only spend their money on food and shelter???

You think most of the poorest Canadians, who can't even put food on their table and barely a roof over their heads, can afford cars and plane tickets?? The moniker Marie-Nite-Antoinette is indeed fitting for you.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

IThe "only" major decline in Canada in the last 10 years is housing costs, and even that is generally relative, and a lot of that is completely screwed by the temporarily high interest rates right now which have rapidly thrown the entire real estate market out of whack in a major way.

Isn't it the other way? The extremely low interest rates in the last decade (especially during COVID) has thrown the real estate market out of whack with extraordinary asset inflation, and now the market is trying to flush out the excesses with higher interest rates..which by the way is trending back to the long term average risk-free rate. With BOC's Macklem now saying that the neutral rate is drifting upward, it's hard to see substantial rate cuts unless the US economy has a complete meltdown.

[hipster duck]

Originally Posted by Nite

Going back to my New Brunswicker on Minimum wage, assuming NB inflation rates are close to the national average
This is how things compare from a year ago

They saw a wage increase of 7.3%
Shelter cost increase of 6.1%
Food cost increase of 5.6%
Transportation cost decrease of -0.4%
Clothing and footwear cost decrease of -1.2%

You're applying Canada-wide inflation statistics to New Brunswick (2% of the Canadian population). If the price of a Big Mac stayed the same everywhere except Ontario and New Brunswick, and it went down 1% in Ontario while it went up by 15% in New Brunswick, the average cost of a Big Mac in Canada would still go down.

Secondly, the average basket of goods isn't evenly distributed across the income spectrum. Fixed mortgages that didn't renew last year or owning your house free and clear will pull the average shelter cost inflation down, but that doesn't sound like your average minimum wage earner's living situation.

Finally, did the NB minimum wage increase between 2021-2022, and how much relative to the even higher rate of inflation of that time period? The minimum wage may just be trying (and failing) to catch up to rising cost of living over a longer time period.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by someone123

It's just anecdotal but the two biggest groups I know are 50+ folks who own their own housing and have a low labour force participation rate and younger 20 and 30 somethings who spend around half of their money on rent even though they have roommates.

To add, the younger 20-30s will pay higher and higher taxes into the system as the government's deficit spending becomes untenable, and yet by the time these younger folks retire they will unlikely have a functioning public healthcare system available to them. Add in the high rent/mortgage penalty, and it's pretty much a raw deal for young Canadians, especially in the GTA, Southern Ontario and BC.

No wonder it's getting easier and easier for many of our friends to justify relocating to the US, and it would explain why younger Canadians have a much weaker attachment and sense of belonging to Canada.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by hipster duck

You're applying Canada-wide inflation statistics to New Brunswick (2% of the Canadian population). If the price of a Big Mac stayed the same everywhere except Ontario and New Brunswick, and it went down 1% in Ontario while it went up by 15% in New Brunswick, the average cost of a Big Mac in Canada would still go down.

Secondly, the average basket of goods isn't evenly distributed across the income spectrum. Fixed mortgages that didn't renew last year or owning your house free and clear will pull the average shelter cost inflation down, but that doesn't sound like your average minimum wage earner's living situation.

Finally, did the NB minimum wage increase between 2021-2022, and how much relative to the even higher rate of inflation of that time period? The minimum wage may just be trying (and failing) to catch up to rising cost of living over a longer time period.

well of course it's not going to be the same, i used Canada wide numbers because i don't have N.B. specific ones, some areas will be high and some lower.

provide me with some N.B. specific inflation numbers by components and i will do the list again.

[Nite]

Originally Posted by P'tit Renard

You think most of the poorest Canadians, who can't even put food on their table and barely a roof over their heads, can afford cars and plane tickets?? The moniker Marie-Nite-Antoinette is indeed fitting for you.

of course they buy plane tickets and cars.
A minimum wage worker in Ontario makes $34,400 If full time.
you know you can buy a plane ticket between Canada 2 largest cities for $105 or a car for under $1,500
that's 0.3% and 4.4% of their yearly income respectively if they decide to pay all at once


here is said flight and car:

flight from toronto to montreal for $105
https://www.flyporter.com/en_ca/flights-from-toronto-to-montreal

2012 ford focus for $1,488
https://www.autotrader.ca/a/ford/focus/t...rsrc=pl&urp=2&urm=8&pc=M6M%205J4&sprx=-1

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Nite

2012 ford focus for $1,488
https://www.autotrader.ca/a/ford/focus/t...rsrc=pl&urp=2&urm=8&pc=M6M%205J4&sprx=-1

"This vehicle is being sold "as-is" unfit, not e-tested, and is not represented as being in road-worthy condition, mechanically sound, or maintained at any guaranteed level of quality. The vehicle may not be fit for use as a means of transportation and may require substantial repairs at the purchaser's expense. It may not be possible to register the vehicle to be driven in its current condition."

I don't know if you've bought a car anytime in the past few years, but good luck actually finding something drivable at that price. The average price of a used car in Canada in 2023 is $39,645 (obviously would skew lower for older, lower-end models).

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

Everyone on this board has gotten real damn negative over the last 2 years or so, and I think that skews a lot of things.

...

The "only" major decline in Canada in the last 10 years is housing costs, and even that is generally relative, and a lot of that is completely screwed by the temporarily high interest rates right now which have rapidly thrown the entire real estate market out of whack in a major way.

I dunno, probably because most of us have gotten poorer and seen our quality of life decline in the past 2 years or so (and/or have worked hard, advanced in our careers, and yet are no further ahead than we were then)?

If life is better for you now than it was a few years ago, you're either coming from a position of extreme privilege or at least luck.

Even if it's "only" housing that's gotten worse, that's a pretty big one and it affects every other aspect of the economy and of people's lives. Being that its most households' single biggest cost for and kind of an essential - and it has downstream effects on everything from family formation and social cohesion to crime & disorder to cannibalizing other sectors of the economy.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin

"This vehicle is being sold "as-is" unfit, not e-tested, and is not represented as being in road-worthy condition, mechanically sound, or maintained at any guaranteed level of quality. The vehicle may not be fit for use as a means of transportation and may require substantial repairs at the purchaser's expense. It may not be possible to register the vehicle to be driven in its current condition."


I don't know if you've bought a car anytime in the past few years, but good luck actually finding something drivable at that price. The average price of a used car in Canada in 2023 is $39,645 (obviously would skew lower for older, lower-end models).

That price is skewed towards newer vehicles, likely those just one or two years old. Also, AFAIK, in BC (maybe not other provinces) vehicles do not require any inspection. Air care emissions tests, and safety tests, were done away with years ago. Used vehicles purchased outside the province do need inspection though. Like many other things, our vehicle regulations are not very consistent across Canada.

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by Architype

That price is skewed towards newer vehicles, likely those just one or two years old. Also, AFAIK, in BC (maybe not other provinces) vehicles do not require any inspection. Air care emissions tests, and safety tests, were done away with years ago. Used vehicles purchased outside the province do need inspection though. Like many other things, our vehicle regulations are not very consistent across Canada.

Decade-old economy vehicles will definitely be significantly cheaper than that of course, but based on my experience from a few years ago, $8,000-$10,000 is still kind realistically the lowest you can go for a road-worthy car.

You can find listings for less of course, but most of those either scams or "mechanic specials", and if not they get so much interest so quickly that you won't even get a response.