Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

This is a bit shocking and even unbelievable to me. I do believe the CAQ is taking a hit and PSPP is the best PQ leader in decades, but not to the point where the PQ is first with a 6-point lead over the CAQ. Pallas is IMO not the best polling firm when it comes to sounding out Quebecers.

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1727270728939282752

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Just another assumption, just like assuming the present borders are sacrosanct.

I think Parizeau's "assumption" was more strategic than something he truly believed was unassailable.

The safest bet is that borders would be on the discussion table, but whether or not that would lead to any readjustments at all is extremely uncertain.

What would Canada-sans-Quebec have to gain for insisting forcefully that certain areas of Quebec remain with Canada, especially in southern Quebec? Just one example: in the extremely unlikely scenario that Canada-sans-Quebec would "get to keep" Montreal, all of a sudden the new Canada sees its francophone population double (or triple depending on where you set the boundary) with everything that entails in terms of political complications. Let's not forget that in an independence scenario during the transition period when not everything is settled, there is a good chance that a significant percentage of the anglo population of Montreal would leave Quebec for the ROC anyway. So you're going to go through all of that pain for a much-diminished Anglo-Montreal? Methinks that the ROC would have bigger fish to fry in the negotiations. A better and way more likely strategy would simply be to say that anyone moving from Quebec to the ROC would be welcomed with open arms.

[Acajack]

The Indigenous populations in the north of Quebec (Inuit and Cree) would of course be a different story. Their situation and wishes would be the focus of some pretty robust negotiations I am sure.

In addition to trilateral talks between the ROC and Quebec involving them, it's a certainty that they will be talking directly with Canada-sans-Quebec and with Quebec as well.

It seems to be part of legendary ROC lore that the Cree and Inuit of northern Quebec are fiercely proud patriotic Canadians à la Stompin' Tom and Don Cherry... I am not too sure of that even though I admit their stated preference is to remain with Canada.

As I've mentioned in the past... what if Quebec makes them a sweetheart deal that Canada can't match? Will they still stay with Canada for a lesser deal out of a love for the maple leaf?

When I say Canada can't politically or logistically match the best deal Quebec could offer the Cree and the Inuit, I base this on the numbers and facts on the ground. Look at how many Indigenous people and nations there are in Quebec vs the ROC, and look at where they tend to be located in the ROC vs Quebec. The ROC has way more Indigenous people, way more groups and communities, and they are often located way closer to non-Indigenous population centres.

No one in populated southern Quebec cares if the Cree and the Inuit function like quasi-independent nations on their own territory up in the north.

We're talking about less than 100,000* people in total. A sovereign Quebec could make every single one of them millionaires if they wanted to. (Not saying this is what they should do BTW.)

EDIT: *It's actually less than 40,000 people in total.

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

This is a bit shocking and even unbelievable to me. I do believe the CAQ is taking a hit and PSPP is the best PQ leader in decades, but not to the point where the PQ is first with a 6-point lead over the CAQ. Pallas is IMO not the best polling firm when it comes to sounding out Quebecers.

https://twitter.com/338Canada/status/1727270728939282752

PLQ completely adrift without a leader, totally unable to even try to take advantage of the CAQ's shrinking support.

The rendez-vous with history you mentioned a while back may be taking shape.

If the PQ continues its ascent and wins (convincingly) then calls a referendum, who will be left in 2025/2026 in the NON camp?
1) Trudeau - likely gone
2) Legault - likely gone, lacks credibility
3) Joly? Guilbeault? As of yet unknown PLQ leader?
4) the thawed-out husks of Jean Charest and Jean Chrétien???
5) Pierre Poilievre... typically the coalition of NON doesn't want ROC politicians involved, but if he became PM (likely), he would kind of have to be on some level. Might not be for the best interest of the NON.

Even if the OUI currently has 33-35% support, PSPP is very charasmatic... there are other strong voices in the OUI camp as well. GND, Manon.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The safest bet is that borders would be on the discussion table, but whether or not that would lead to any readjustments at all is extremely uncertain.

The border would NOT be modified. I know internet forums are places where all sorts of silly things are said, but if there is one certainty in life it is that in case of Québec (or Scotland, or Catalonia) secession, THE BORDERS WOULD NOT BE MODIFIED. One has to know nothing about international law and the mood of Western countries to pretend otherwise.

On the other hand, OF COURSE during a referendum campaign the federal government would be all to happy to hint at the fact that northern Québec could remain inside Canada in case of independence, but that's only political posturing, and not something Ottawa would ever seriously consider if the OUI won.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Zeej

PLQ completely adrift without a leader, totally unable to even try to take advantage of the CAQ's shrinking support.

The rendez-vous with history you mentioned a while back may be taking shape.

If the PQ continues its ascent and wins (convincingly) then calls a referendum, who will be left in 2025/2026 in the NON camp?
1) Trudeau - likely gone
2) Legault - likely gone, lacks credibility
3) Joly? Guilbeault? As of yet unknown PLQ leader?
4) the thawed-out husks of Jean Charest and Jean Chrétien???
5) Pierre Poilievre... typically the coalition of NON doesn't want ROC politicians involved, but if he became PM (likely), he would kind of have to be on some level. Might not be for the best interest of the NON.

Even if the OUI currently has 33-35% support, PSPP is very charasmatic... there are other strong voices in the OUI camp as well. GND, Manon.

The PQ is even ahead in the Montreal area, with the CAQ second and the Liberals third.

https://twitter.com/Byrnappe/status/1727301837873963369

Note though that even with these numbers, the Liberals probably would still retain their bastions in central-western and western Montreal island, where their vote remains extremely concentrated. That is still only just under or just over 20 seats, though. They're still going to be also-rans in the grand scheme of things.

As for the Acajack window of history we're still a long way away I'd say, and obviously this is more about dissatisfaction with the CAQ government on a number of issues than it is support for independence. But things can change lightning fast in politics these days, as we've seen. And this for sure is how things start.

[lio45]

I love that some of the striking teachers are now wearing L.A. Kings jerseys awesome touch! They’re being pretty savvy this year.

(Considering this thread the catch-all for Quebec politics and general discussion)

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Zeej

The rendez-vous with history you mentioned a while back may be taking shape.

Looks like it. I have saved all posts from those saying a new independence referendum has only a 1% chance of happening again.

In a way it is only natural. This is the sort of issue that should be discussed once in a generation, and it's been 28 years now, so one generation.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The PQ is even ahead in the Montreal area, with the CAQ second and the Liberals third.

If the PQ want to be serious about their referendum objective, they need to win the "ethnic vote" (sorry, the vote of immigrants and diversity). The Scottish nationalists were quite successful in doing that. I've always wondered why the PQ, with their left-leanings, were unable to do it. They should try and convince at least a sizeable part of the immigrant communities that the independence of Québec would be good for them, that they would be welcomed in an independent Québec that would be an open and liberal society, etc, as the SNP successfully did in Scotland.

I don't know whether people at the PQ are working on immigrant communities though.

[thurmas]

Is the PQ winning because of CAQ incompetence? Or a rebound in support for sovereignty? I assume its CAQ incompetence as PLQ is stuck as the west island party and QS can't get their stuff together to be seen as a credible centre left alternative like the provincial NDP parties in BC and Manitoba.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

The border would NOT be modified. I know internet forums are places where all sorts of silly things are said, but if there is one certainty in life it is that in case of Québec (or Scotland, or Catalonia) secession, THE BORDERS WOULD NOT BE MODIFIED. One has to know nothing about international law and the mood of Western countries to pretend otherwise.

On the other hand, OF COURSE during a referendum campaign the federal government would be all to happy to hint at the fact that northern Québec could remain inside Canada in case of independence, but that's only political posturing, and not something Ottawa would ever seriously consider if the OUI won.

Sure, if I needed to bet on the ultimate outcome I would bet on borders not changing post-independence. Though with the Cree and Inuit having some form of guaranteed heightened autonomous status in the north, but still legally part of Quebec.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

If the PQ want to be serious about their referendum objective, they need to win the "ethnic vote" (sorry, the vote of immigrants and diversity). The Scottish nationalists were quite successful in doing that. I've always wondered why the PQ, with their left-leanings, were unable to do it. They should try and convince at least a sizeable part of the immigrant communities that the independence of Québec would be good for them, that they would be welcomed in an independent Québec that would be an open and liberal society, etc, as the SNP successfully did in Scotland.

I don't know whether people at the PQ are working on immigrant communities though.

Oh yes, they work with them a lot. It's not completely futile on that side BTW, but if they want to win they need to do way better.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

The border would NOT be modified. I know internet forums are places where all sorts of silly things are said, but if there is one certainty in life it is that in case of Québec (or Scotland, or Catalonia) secession, THE BORDERS WOULD NOT BE MODIFIED. One has to know nothing about international law and the mood of Western countries to pretend otherwise.

On the other hand, OF COURSE during a referendum campaign the federal government would be all to happy to hint at the fact that northern Québec could remain inside Canada in case of independence, but that's only political posturing, and not something Ottawa would ever seriously consider if the OUI won.

While mostly separated regions have maintained their previous borders in almost every case there has been disputes which in many places were violent. I think Acack is right that Quebec would have a great opportunity to offer them a better deal than Canada but if they demand full independence and are willing to fight for it they would almost certainly get support. With a steady income source they would be well placed for that as well. Canada might not want this result as it would open up many issues just as the Soviets and Yugoslavs decided the previous borders should be sacrosanct but if the SQ shoot a bunch of protestors you can bet Canada intervenes to "protect" them. Canadian troops enforcing an autonomous region in the north cripples the state as much as independence. Yugoslavia was peaceful until it wasn't. There is already a history of using violence to achieve autonomy.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

While mostly separated regions have maintained their previous borders in almost every case there has been disputes which in many places were violent. I think Acack is right that Quebec would have a great opportunity to offer them a better deal than Canada but if they demand full independence and are willing to fight for it they would almost certainly get support. With a steady income source they would be well placed for that as well. Canada might not want this result as it would open up many issues just as the Soviets and Yugoslavs decided the previous borders should be sacrosanct but if the SQ shoot a bunch of protestors you can bet Canada intervenes to "protect" them. Canadian troops enforcing an autonomous region in the north cripples the state as much as independence. Yugoslavia was peaceful until it wasn't. There is already a history of using violence to achieve autonomy.

I believe the Indigenous communities in northern Quebec have 18,000 and 15,000 people respectively. I doubt they'd want full independence and would probably want to have the back-up of a larger state (Canada or possibly Quebec under that scenario) for a number of things.

Yes they'd have a good amount of leverage vis-à-vis Quebec with the ROC and even some of the international community looking over Quebec's shoulder.

That said I think that Quebec negotiators would go into there with the stipulation that they can't come back home without a deal.

If say they were to be offered the sweetest deal offered to any Indigenous peoples anywhere in the new world, even if it doesn't give them absolutely everything they want, would they still say no in the end?

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Is the PQ winning because of CAQ incompetence? Or a rebound in support for sovereignty? I assume its CAQ incompetence as PLQ is stuck as the west island party and QS can't get their stuff together to be seen as a credible centre left alternative like the provincial NDP parties in BC and Manitoba.

Great dissatisfaction with the CAQ right now. Support had to go somewhere. PQ with its likeable leader is apparently the best alternative.

[thurmas]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/stat...%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

That Pallas Data QC Poll Modelled'

PQ: 58 (+55)
PLQ: 26 (+5)
CAQ: 23 (-67)
QS: 11 (-)
PCQ: 7 (+7)

(Seat change with 2022 Election)

(Model by @kylejhutton)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Zeej

Great dissatisfaction with the CAQ right now. Support had to go somewhere. PQ with its likeable leader is apparently the best alternative.

When the CAQ was born it mostly ate the PQ's support (Legault, Drainville, etc. being ex-PQ ministers; the CAQ is much more closer to "PQ under a different name" than to "PLQ under a different name") so now that the attractive new party promising to do things differently has turned out to be the same shit as usual (or even worse, one could say), support is mostly going back to where it originated from. (It doesn't hurt that PSPP is himself the "attractive, new, honest" thing; the PQ's Near Death Experience allowed the party to kinda start afresh).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

When the CAQ was born it mostly ate the PQ's support (Legault, Drainville, etc. being ex-PQ ministers; the CAQ is much more closer to "PQ under a different name" than to "PLQ under a different name") so now that the attractive new party promising to do things differently has turned out to be the same shit as usual (or even worse, one could say), support is mostly going back to where it originated from. (It doesn't hurt that PSPP is himself the "attractive, new, honest" thing; the PQ's Near Death Experience allowed the party to kinda start afresh).

I think Legault and the CAQ still have ample time to stop the bleeding and recover, but if they will is anyone's guess.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

It's not completely futile on that side BTW

What do you mean?

[Zeej]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I think Legault and the CAQ still have ample time to stop the bleeding and recover, but if they will is anyone's guess.

It's clear that resentment has been building for a while, but this is a big swing in a short time period. Maybe it's because information travels faster and faster, who knows. But yes, there is still time to recover. The election is in 2026. A lot can happen and it's anyone's guess.

You heard it here first: Justin Trudeau PLQ leader going into 2026