Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0 - Page 456

Dominion301 · #**9101** Posted **Nov 14, 2023, 7:02 PM**

YOW Dreams Take Flight Day PR: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/fi...ds-the-trip-of-a-lifetime-817333345.html

MountainView · #**9102** Posted **Nov 14, 2023, 8:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301

YOW Dreams Take Flight Day PR: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/fi...ds-the-trip-of-a-lifetime-817333345.html

If you checkout their Instagram page there are lots of fun memories happening with this special day.

MountainView · #**9103** Posted **Nov 14, 2023, 8:57 PM**

I am disclaiming my following thought with letting everyone know that I am extremely happy AF is here and I hope they go daily in S24 on either the 330 or 787, and I am in the process of finalizing a booking with them to CDG in March, BUT....

What is YOW airport authority doing? Or are people of YOW still penny-pinching and driving to YYZ/YUL.

WestJet is about to reintroduce flights from YYZ/YHZ/YYT to Europe tomorrow. Nothing from YOW... not even to LGW. WS would rather fly alongside AC to London than start YOW. Too bad the airport authority couldn't use some of the City's funds to help fund this route... no doubt other places are doing this (YHZ and especially YYT)

WestJet Direct Flight Schedule

YYZ-DUB
YYZ-EDI
YYT-LGW
YHZ-LGW
YHZ-EDI
YHZ-DUB

I don't even see a YOW-YHZ returning on WS in the schedule for feed. I will note that YWG does daily in May though.

RomanR27 · #**9104** Posted **Nov 14, 2023, 9:21 PM**

Kind of surprised no YYZ-LGW on that list? Are they running the 787 or MAX on YYZ-DUB/EDI? I thought they said they were basing all 787 traffic out of YYC, so I'm guessing the MAX. In that case, I wonder if the MAX has the range for YOW-LGW. Although I'm surprised they don't do the "direct" flight they used to where it the plane went YOW-YYT-LGW as a direct flight with a stop. This was back when it was an 737NG, surely they could do a YOW-YHZ-LGW on the MAX.

YOWflier · #**9105** Posted **Nov 14, 2023, 9:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MountainView

I am disclaiming my following thought with letting everyone know that I am extremely happy AF is here and I hope they go daily in S24 on either the 330 or 787, and I am in the process of finalizing a booking with them to CDG in March, BUT....

What is YOW airport authority doing?

For once I believe the AA isn’t primarily to blame. They landed AF, which is awesome, and are at work to build up with Porter, which is also awesome.

It must be very hard for them to simultaneously battle the municipality, which reneges on dev programs, and a cheapo population.

fanofYOW · #**9106** Posted **Nov 14, 2023, 11:16 PM**

I don’t think the OAA is too concerned over LHR returning so funding for it or other airports in the vicinity may not be at the top of their list. DUB/EDI/AMS would be good candidates as I assume there must be some type of O&D between YOW and those destinations. However, I hope YOW is saving this funding for international carriers. Screw AC and WS.

On a brighter note, AC’s YOW-YUL/YYZ-CDG flights are now priced similarly to AF’s direct as apposed to the - pretty much free - AC prices.

Dominion301 · #**9107** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 1:37 AM**

One small WS consolation I see for YOW is that 1 of the 2 weekly YOW-CUNs are extended by 6 weeks until 02JUN24.

Maybe WS will bring back a daily YOW-YHZ feeder.

My advice, just keep supporting AF and they'll keep growing here...or at the very least keep the status quo.

There will no doubt be lots more to come with PD in 2024, so even with F8's domestic cuts, things should look pretty good.

AC this summer based on the preliminary schedule are looking like they're coming back quite a bit by:
- Bringing back YOW-YYC daily (a bit more capacity vs last summer if the 320 and 321 loaded for part of the summer stick around);
- Upping YOW-YWG to 2x CR9 (marginally more capacity than 1x 320 last summer, but way better schedule);
- Increasing YOW-YEG back up to daily from 3x weekly this past summer;
- YOW-YTZ is still showing up at 4x daily thru the summer.
- (I think) upping YOW-YQB 2x daily on weekdays
Also YOW-YVR is showing as 1x 7M8 + 2x 321 and weren't DCA & EWR mostly CRJ over summer 2023? They're CR9s next summer with the CRJs going to the graveyard.
The only AC capacity cut is YOW-YHZ at this point is only 2x DH4 unlike the mainline 223 this past summer on one daily.

RomanR27 · #**9108** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 1:59 PM**

IIRC while AC was running the 320 on YOW-YWG there was still 1x daily CR9 as well. We'll see what sticks around, surely there will be more adjustments as time goes on. EWR/DCA were still CR9 up until about September. Hopefully the CRJs actually go away this time and don't reappear on the schedule.

I've also been seeing E75s on YOW-YUL pretty frequently.

mxg308 · #**9109** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 2:46 PM**

Westjet is getting rid of YOW-YYZ: Toronto – Ottawa Last flight available for reservation from Toronto on 25APR24, Ottawa on 26APR24. This route is scheduled 1 daily

Rhb · #**9110** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 3:38 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Just double checked and indeed 42 segments. October is currently on track for 43 (one round trip cancelled plus a YOW-CDG cancellation on the plane that went tech). Of course won't be able to 100% tell with the three YOW-CUN round trips on Flair.

Ottawa airport passenger numbers are out for October 2023. https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-authority/passenger-volume

International passenger volume looks decent at 9792 for the month of October.
Load factor for Air France has a lot of variables. If you assume Flair flights are full. I guess can come up with a load factor at the low end for AF.

MountainView · #**9111** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 3:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhb

Ottawa airport passenger numbers are out for October 2023. https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-authority/passenger-volume

International passenger volume looks decent at 9792 for the month of October.
Load factor for Air France has a lot of variables. If you assume Flair flights are full. I guess can come up with a load factor at the low end for AF.

~45k transborder in Oct 2023 versus ~49k transborder in Oct 2019 is pretty good.

MountainView · #**9112** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 3:54 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by YOWflier

For once I believe the AA isn’t primarily to blame. They landed AF, which is awesome, and are at work to build up with Porter, which is also awesome.

It must be very hard for them to simultaneously battle the municipality, which reneges on dev programs, and a cheapo population.

Yes, I agree for sure.

And I would 10 out of 10 times much rather have AF serve CDG and their global-hub than some 737 service to Gatwick.

Also, if anyone is looking to fly to CDG in Feb/March 2024, if there are seats left in "economy lite" you can book Business Class YOW-CDG, returning in Economy CDG-YOW for the price of a RT Economy fare.

Results may vary! I looked at a few other dates before booking and the discount was there.

Booked mine for my family:

RomanR27 · #**9113** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 4:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rhb

Ottawa airport passenger numbers are out for October 2023. https://yow.ca/en/corporate/airport-authority/passenger-volume

International passenger volume looks decent at 9792 for the month of October.
Load factor for Air France has a lot of variables. If you assume Flair flights are full. I guess can come up with a load factor at the low end for AF.

There were 37 segments on a A332 (224 seats), 4 segments on the B789 (279 seats) and 2 segments on the B77L (280 seats), giving a total of 9,964 seats on AF in October.

There were 3 roundtrip YOW-CUN flights on Flair which yielded 1,128 seats, so 11,092 total international seats in the month of October.

For various values of the Flair load factor, here's the corresponding AF LF:

100% - 87.0%
90% - 88.1%
80% - 89.2%
70% - 90.3%
60% - 91.5%
50% - 92.6%

So worst case AF load factor is 87.0%. Given the YOW-CUN scheduling (Oct 15/22, then nothing until Oct 31), my guess is loads were pretty light so it'd be closer to the 50% range. No way of knowing though.

For reference: July was 90.3%, August was 93.0% and September was 92.2%.

VaskoYOW · #**9114** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 4:11 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RomanR27

There were 37 segments on a A332 (224 seats), 4 segments on the B789 (279 seats) and 2 segments on the B77L (280 seats), giving a total of 9,964 seats on AF in October.

There were 3 roundtrip YOW-CUN flights on Flair which yielded 1,128 seats, so 11,092 total international seats in the month of October.

For various values of the Flair load factor, here's the corresponding AF LF:

100% - 87.0%
90% - 88.1%
80% - 89.2%
70% - 90.3%
60% - 91.5%
50% - 92.6%

So worst case AF load factor is 87.0%.

October 2nd, we had cancellation on both AF327/328 flights…I’m not sure, if it’s included in the 37 segments. So potentially it could be higher LF for the month.

RomanR27 · #**9115** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 4:26 PM**

The 37 factors in the cancellation of that as well as the YOW-CDG cancellation when a plane went tech at YOW and later ferried back to CDG. Otherwise there would have been 40 segments from OCT1-OCT28 while the 332 was scheduled.

Dominion301 · #**9116** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 5:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by RomanR27

There were 37 segments on a A332 (224 seats), 4 segments on the B789 (279 seats) and 2 segments on the B77L (280 seats), giving a total of 9,964 seats on AF in October.

There were 3 roundtrip YOW-CUN flights on Flair which yielded 1,128 seats, so 11,092 total international seats in the month of October.

For various values of the Flair load factor, here's the corresponding AF LF:

100% - 87.0%
90% - 88.1%
80% - 89.2%
70% - 90.3%
60% - 91.5%
50% - 92.6%

So worst case AF load factor is 87.0%. Given the YOW-CUN scheduling (Oct 15/22, then nothing until Oct 31), my guess is loads were pretty light so it'd be closer to the 50% range. No way of knowing though.

For reference: July was 90.3%, August was 93.0% and September was 92.2%.

Given the F8 returns from CUN would have been almost empty as the first flights of the season, the 50-60% LF range would be accurate, so AF was again around 92% in October. While it's only a sample size of 6 segments with the larger gauge aircraft, it's a good sign the high loads are holding.

Today's departure count: 68 - including 5 sun flights

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1

Dominion301 · #**9117** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 5:23 PM**

Sector / Oct-22 / Oct-23 / % Chg.
Dom: 281,971 / 300,504 / +6.6%
TB: 17,567 / 45,065 / +156.5%
Int'l: 0 / 9,792 / #DIV/0!
TTL: 299,538 / 355,361 / +18.6%

Sector / YTD 2022 / YTD 2023 / % Change
Dom: 2,245,015 / 2,736,232 / +21.9%
TB: 124,536 / 448,742 / +260.3%
Int'l: 42,722 / 230,929 / +440.5%
TTL: 2,412,273 / 3,415,903 / +41.6% - on pace to end the year at ~4.05M = pace has gone +450K since January 2023

Month-Over-Month Change
Sector / Sep-23 / Oct-23 / % Change
Dom: 300,789 / 300,504 / -0.1%
TB: 38,599 / 45,065 / +16.8%
Int'l: 8,672 / 9,792 / +12.9%
TTL: 348,060 / 355,361 / +2.1%
Avg/Day: 11,602 / 11,463 / -1.2%
% of month's avg daily pax vs full year 2019 (13,990 avg pax/day) = 81.9%
YTD TTL vs YTD 2019 = 79.3%
2019 Avg Oct pax/day: 13,567
% of month's avg daily pax vs the same month in 2019 = 84.5%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2021
Dom: 3,200,216 / +179.8%
TB: 514,541 / +4,477.0%
Int'l: 281,207 / +1,703.0%
TTL: 3,995,964 / +241.3%

MountainView · #**9118** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 6:20 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Sector / Oct-22 / Oct-23 / % Chg.
Dom: 281,971 / 300,504 / +6.6%
TB: 17,567 / 45,065 / +156.5%
Int'l: 0 / 9,792 / #DIV/0!
TTL: 299,538 / 355,361 / +18.6%

Sector / YTD 2022 / YTD 2023 / % Change
Dom: 2,245,015 / 2,736,232 / +21.9%
TB: 124,536 / 448,742 / +260.3%
Int'l: 42,722 / 230,929 / +440.5%
TTL: 2,412,273 / 3,415,903 / +41.6% - on pace to end the year at ~4.05M = pace has gone +450K since January 2023

Month-Over-Month Change
Sector / Sep-23 / Oct-23 / % Change
Dom: 300,789 / 300,504 / -0.1%
TB: 38,599 / 45,065 / +16.8%
Int'l: 8,672 / 9,792 / +12.9%
TTL: 348,060 / 355,361 / +2.1%
Avg/Day: 11,602 / 11,463 / -1.2%
% of month's avg daily pax vs full year 2019 (13,990 avg pax/day) = 81.9%
YTD TTL vs YTD 2019 = 79.3%
2019 Avg Oct pax/day: 13,567
% of month's avg daily pax vs the same month in 2019 = 84.5%

12 Months Rolling / % Change vs Year End 2021
Dom: 3,200,216 / +179.8%
TB: 514,541 / +4,477.0%
Int'l: 281,207 / +1,703.0%
TTL: 3,995,964 / +241.3%

Thanks for posting the breakdown.

Not that its a contest... but I wonder if we will pass YHZ and/or YWG for 6th place. YWG seems to be doing quite well lately. Kudos to them.

MountainView · #**9119** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 6:30 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Given the F8 returns from CUN would have been almost empty as the first flights of the season, the 50-60% LF range would be accurate, so AF was again around 92% in October. While it's only a sample size of 6 segments with the larger gauge aircraft, it's a good sign the high loads are holding.

Today's departure count: 68 - including 5 sun flights

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1

I hope AF has the aircraft to go daily in the summer here!

RomanR27 · #**9120** Posted **Nov 15, 2023, 6:42 PM**

Looking at the month-over-month % change, since July comparing 2023 to 2022 is pretty similar.

July 2022 / 2023: +2.9% / +3.3% (compared against June)
Aug 2022/ 2023: + 7.3% / 5.7%
Sept 2022 / 2023: -11.4% / -10.8%
Oct 2022 / 2023: 2.8% / 2.1%

Assuming that's representative of the passenger counts having some predictable seasonality, you can conservatively predict 320K for Nov and 360K for Dec, which gets you about 4K pax shy of 4.1M for 2023.