Housing Bubble II: The Quest To Build Enough Homes Where People Actually Need Them

[goodgrowth]

Home sales are more of a transactional indicator than a fundamental indicator of housing supply. The rental market vacancy rate is much more telling when it comes to fundamental housing supply.

This is why real estate agents poison housing discourse imo. They have a narrow view of the housing market yet talk as if they are speaking about core housing needs.

[urbandreamer]

Westbank has imploded ha. Is Quadreal taking over Mirvish Village?

[Harrison]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Westbank has imploded ha. Is Quadreal taking over Mirvish Village?

It has? You would think that would make news if it happened, no? They're quite a large developer.

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by Harrison

It has? You would think that would make news if it happened, no? They're quite a large developer.

They're the rumoured developer going bust in six months or so.

[lio45]

Plenty of observers do forecast problems in the West Bank within the next few months (October 7th aftermath) so maybe it's just a mix up?

[whatnext]

Could we at least be at that long-needed, blessed bursting point?

Vandyk Properties faces demand to place properties into receivership
SHANE DINGMAN REAL ESTATE REPORTER
TORONTO
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
FOR SUBSCRIBERS

Lenders who are owed a total of more than $203-million have applied to appoint a receiver to manage several housing projects owned by Toronto-area real estate developer Vandyk Properties.

Vandyk is just the latest casualty of a treacherous environment for real estate development that so far this year has seen high-profile insolvency proceedings begin for unfinished projects from Coromandel Properties in Vancouver, StateView Homes in Woodbridge, Ont., and The One in Toronto, widely believed to be Canada’s tallest residential condo project....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...-receivership/


Vancouver developer Westbank denies ‘malicious rumours’ of financial trouble
The company, which has helped build some of the city’s most notable projects, is facing lawsuits in Ontario
By Bob Mackin | November 8, 2023, 8:30am

One of Vancouver’s biggest and most dynamic developers is denying that it is experiencing financial trouble.

In an undated, unsigned, one-page statement that is circulating among real estate agents, Westbank suggested it would take legal action to protect its reputation against “malicious rumours circulating online surrounding the integrity of our company and success of our developments.”....

https://biv.com/article/2023/11/vanc...ancial-trouble

Sam Mizrahi's 'The One' Placed Under Receivership
According to court filings, a total of $1.235B is outstanding on loans provided by KEB Hana Bank.
Laura Hanrahan
October 19, 2023

One of the tallest skyscrapers coming to Canada is facing significant financial trouble as Mizrahi Developments' The One has been placed under receivership.

According to court filings, a total of $1.235B is outstanding on loans provided by KEB Hana Bank for the development of The One.

Further funds are owed to a number of other creditors, including over $201M to Aviva Insurance related to Tarion Warranty provision, $75M to Coco International, $213M to CERIECO Canada Corp. for a contractor's loan, and $55M to NongHyup Bank....

https://storeys.com/mizrahi-developm...-receivership/

[casper]

For those expecting a federal conservative government to get away with controlling which municipal governments are winning and losers in the housing or transportation funding envelops need to listen to this clip of how the conservative premiers felt about the strategy.

Clearly the Liberals are ruffling some feathers with their more recent housing program. Thankfully, the feds are holding firm and see no reason to stop their program that involves working directly with municipal governments.

• Video Link

[yaletown_fella]

I've seen a handful of 500k 1 bedrooms on Bay Street, Dalhousie, St Clair.. prime downtown and midtown locations. Some with great layouts, $500-600/mo condo fees (not suspiciously low but not unaffordable) and generous counter-space in the kitchen.

With the bank of Canada hinting at rate cuts , I think this fall/winter may be my last chance to buy in Toronto .

It sucks to liquidate all of my savings to scrape together a 30-50% down payment on a condo, but I've waited and been bitching too long. I guess it's time to try to rip off this band aid.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

I've seen a handful of 500k 1 bedrooms on Bay Street, Dalhousie, St Clair.. prime downtown and midtown locations. Some with great layouts, $500-600/mo condo fees (not suspiciously low but not unaffordable) and generous counter-space in the kitchen.

With the bank of Canada hinting at rate cuts , I think this fall/winter may be my last chance to buy in Toronto .

It sucks to liquidate all of my savings to scrape together a 30-50% down payment on a condo, but I've waited and been bitching too long. I guess it's time to try to rip off this band aid.

Wasn't the latest hint to be ready for rates to remain "high"?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by yaletown_fella

I've seen a handful of 500k 1 bedrooms on Bay Street, Dalhousie, St Clair.. prime downtown and midtown locations. Some with great layouts, $500-600/mo condo fees (not suspiciously low but not unaffordable) and generous counter-space in the kitchen.

With the bank of Canada hinting at rate cuts , I think this fall/winter may be my last chance to buy in Toronto .

It sucks to liquidate all of my savings to scrape together a 30-50% down payment on a condo, but I've waited and been bitching too long. I guess it's time to try to rip off this band aid.

There won't be any rate cuts for a while, despite what realtors might say:

Canadians should be ready for rates to stay higher in the long run, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor says
MARK RENDELL
PUBLISHED YESTERDAY
UPDATED 4 HOURS AGO
FOR SUBSCRIBERS
Canadians need to be prepared for the growing likelihood that interest rates won’t return to the low levels seen over the past 15 years, Bank of Canada senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers warned Thursday.

In a speech in Vancouver, the central bank’s second-in-command said that many of the economic forces that pulled down interest rates in recent decades are going into reverse. That “new normal” creates risks for indebted households, businesses and the broader financial system, which need to be managed proactively, she said.

“It may be tempting to believe the low rates that we all got used to will eventually come back. But there are reasons to think they may not,” Ms. Rogers said.

She pointed to tectonic shifts in the global economy, including a retirement wave among baby boomers and changing patterns of global trade and investment.

“We also look now to be in an era of higher levels of government debt. And geopolitical risks, such as an escalation of the war in Ukraine or the war in Israel and Gaza, could push rates higher globally – if they were to affect energy prices and supply chains in ways that could have a lasting impact on inflation,” she said....

....Speaking to the Senate banking committee last week, OSFI superintendent Peter Routledge said that variable rate mortgages with fixed payments were “a dangerous product” and that “the system would be healthier with less of that product.”

Ms. Rogers’s speech was the latest in a string of comments from senior central bank officials flagging the risk of structurally higher interest rates. In May, Governor Tiff Macklem warned that “nobody should expect that interest rates are going to go back down to the very low levels that we’ve seen over the last decade or so.”....

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/busi...r-in-the-long/

[WarrenC12]

The BoC wants to send that message so people stop "holding out" and change their behavior.

They will absolutely cut rates if the economy goes downhill fast.

Remember when they said low rates were here to stay?

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

The BoC wants to send that message so people stop "holding out" and change their behavior.

They will absolutely cut rates if the economy goes downhill fast.

Remember when they said low rates were here to stay?

And if they do while the USA doesn't, they will tank the loonie and add more fuel to the inflation fire. I've already got a long list of price increases come January 1 from suppliers, inflation isn't going away.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by whatnext

And if they do while the USA doesn't, they will tank the loonie and add more fuel to the inflation fire. I've already got a long list of price increases come January 1 from suppliers, inflation isn't going away.

Ehhh, sort of. We've had decent economies when the C$ is in the 60s. Oil is priced in USD, we export a lot of things, and we become even cheaper skilled labour for tech, Film/TV, etc.

[Innsertnamehere]

A cheap dollar is a boon for Ontario specifically economically, typically.

It just makes cross-border travel suck, as does purchasing certain goods (i.e. cars)

The dollar as it stands now is already pretty low.

The BoCs messaging is clearly intended to direct the economy as much as their set rate is. If the BoC started signaling that they anticipated rate hikes soon, the markets would react and would negate the purpose of the high rates until then.

BoC wants to keep the pressure on the economy as long as possible. As soon as they start cutting rates the whole market will shift and they want to avoid the perception of a rate cut as long as possible right now.

Rate cuts will come - and I suspect sooner than many think - but until the day that the BoC announces it, they have to publicly keep a hawkish tone on rates or it defeats their entire purpose. Most of the industry is predicting cuts in Q2 2024 - but the BoC would never say that publicly. Right now they want people making financial decisions as if rates will be at 5% forever.

What I do think is true is we won't see a prime rate of 0.5% again any time soon. Starting in 2024 I suspect we'll see the BoC cut rates slowly over a few years to 2-3%. Anyone hoping for another sub-3% fixed rate mortgage is likely going to be waiting a longggg time.

[urbandreamer]

I think many people didn't live through the 1980s. High interest rates were good for savers like my parents. My father retired at 50 and lived off 18% savings bonds!

Interest rates may go up and down a few points, but the long term trend is up.

Low interest rates combined with mass immigration have wrecked Canada's economy. We need entrepreneurs, new Nortels, RIMs, a homegrown automotive industry, not service industry and big government along with crooks and house flippers propping up the economy.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Innsertnamehere

What I do think is true is we won't see a prime rate of 0.5% again any time soon. Starting in 2024 I suspect we'll see the BoC cut rates slowly over a few years to 2-3%. Anyone hoping for another sub-3% fixed rate mortgage is likely going to be waiting a longggg time.

I agree with your whole post but will nitpick that fixed rates are set by the bond market. Variable rates are directly linked to prime.

The Government of Canada is rolling debts over at over 5% now. Good times, PP will have a deficit mess to deal with.

[urbandreamer]

What Canadians fail to realize is interest rates aren't set here. London, New York, and the Fed control our economy. War and high interest rates will be the new economic model for the next 25 years.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by casper

For those expecting a federal conservative government to get away with controlling which municipal governments are winning and losers in the housing or transportation funding envelops need to listen to this clip of how the conservative premiers felt about the strategy.

Clearly the Liberals are ruffling some feathers with their more recent housing program. Thankfully, the feds are holding firm and see no reason to stop their program that involves working directly with municipal governments.

• Video Link

Can't blame the provinces for taking a firm stance against Ottawa. The supposed Housing Accelerator hasn't built a damn single house since its inception. I also don't like this picking & choosing of what cities benefit as we all know it will be the areas that voted Liberal or used as a political ploy to try to stop the Liberal support bleeding in swing urban ridings. One only has to look at AC.

Why would we trust the Liberals on housing policy when it is 100% their fault that we are in this mess to begin with? Remember this is Trudeau who said that housing was not a federal responsibility UNTIL PP made it a priority. We should view Trudeau's housing policy the same as we do with Vancouver...........study the policies and then do the exact opposite.

[giallo]

RMTransit talks about the game-changing legislation happening in BC right now.

• Video Link

[someone123]

I was never all that excited by laneway houses or four plexes but I think 20 storeys is different. It is only a FAR of 5 though (it makes more sense to talk about FAR than floor count IMO when there are required setbacks). A good step but hopefully can be taken farther in the future.

I wonder what the impact on politics will be. There are already the Point Grey people who don't want the SkyTrain in their area and they really really won't want it if it comes with guaranteed upzoning rather than an upzoning battle. I would like it if the Point Grey people were ignored but I am not sure that is how BC politics will work.

Another aspect is that Canadian cities, if they want to do this kind of generic zoning, should put more effort into heritage/character preservation and public space in these areas. The Vancouver Specials can go but it would be too bad if the relatively few nice old prewar brick apartments all got replaced with towers because they happen to be near transit.