is the future of america in texas?

[mrnyc]

don't mess with texas lol ... pretty bold ... and kinda funny to imagine ... moving company guesstimates here --




Is the future of America in Texas? Dallas, Houston and Austin are poised to replace New York City, Los Angeles and Chicago as the largest cities in the US ... but not for another 77 years

Texas' population expected to reach 96 million by 2100-- making it largest in US
Dallas expected to be home to 34 million by the turn of the century

New York City, Los Angeles will see major declines, falling to #5 and #7 largest cities

By MARYANN MARTINEZ, TEXAS BUREAU CHIEF FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
PUBLISHED: 06:59 EDT, 22 October 2023 | UPDATED: 14:08 EDT, 22 October 2023


It's a new world and Texas will be at the center of it, as the Lone Star State is expected to become the most populous in the US by 2100 with a whooping 96 million residents, according to a study.

In 77 years, New York, Chicago and LA will be replaced by Texas cities as the largest in the nation, a study from moveBuddha claims.

The moving company made the bold projections by applying 2010-2020 Census growth rates to the top U.S. metropolitan areas.


more:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/texas/a...Chicago-largest-cities-not-77-years.html

[mrnyc]

here's a quote that caught my eye, i know texas is mad for football, but dam ... screw the poors ... and this is for like 5 games a year --


the (newly suburban prosper, tx) school district announced plans to build a $94 million high school football stadium-- making it the most expensive high school stadium ever.

[Crawford]

Can you imagine a Dallas with 34 million? What a shitshow. Thousands and thousands of square miles of Plano-Frisco type development. Ugh.

Americans apparently love this stuff, tho. A McMansion on a sunbaked, barren, lot, with access to a giant stroad, represents the American Dream for a hell of a lot of people. We'll see if this continues when it's 100F half the year.

[Busy Bee]

This is ridiculous nonsense.

[Steely Dan]

^^ 8,500 sq. miles of it in fact, at Plano's "responsible" density of 4,000 ppsm.



The stroads at night

Are big and bright

Deep in the heart of Texas

[M II A II R II K]

But more importantly will they have skyscrapers...

[pj3000]

Wow- a Texas-sized congrats to the Lone Star state!! 2100 is gonnna be so awesome down there -- I can't wait!

[3rd&Brown]

No. You can't have a 34 million person city with no public transportation system.

Perhaps other cities in Texas will pop up to take on some of the growth (Waco, Midland, Odessa, etc) but Dallas' growth would peter out with no investment in infrastructure (other than roads) to enable it.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Can you imagine a Dallas with 34 million? What a shitshow. Thousands and thousands of square miles of Plano-Frisco type development. Ugh.

The numbers are complete and utter nonsense if that makes you feel better.

No, you can’t extrapolate a few years growth out forever with no regard for birth rates, infrastructure and resources.

The totals don’t even come close to matching up with the actual projected population of the U.S. in 2100 which is about 390 to 400 million

[iheartthed]

We had a long thread about this before and spoke at length of why it is stupid to extrapolate current growth rates out for decades to predict future population.

[LuluBobo]

Phoenix quadrupling in population is wild. Do they even have the water to do so?

At 37,800 square kilometres and most growth being low density, that comes out to a metro area of 140,000 to 150,000 square kilometres.

That's about 50% the size of the entire state. Would certainly combine with the Tuscon metro area.

That's about twice the size of the LA-Inland Empire metro area. Or larger than England.

Seems extraordinarily unrealistic.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

We had a long thread about this before and spoke at length of why it is stupid to extrapolate current growth rates out for decades to predict future population.

Yep, and I'm itching to dig up my Chicago projections that I made then (took a few minutes to compute, so it shouldn't go to waste!!!)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by LuluBobo

At 37,800 square kilometres and most growth being low density, that comes out to a metro area of 140,000 to 150,000 square kilometres.

That's about 50% the size of the entire state. Would certainly combine with the Tuscon metro area.

That's about twice the size of the LA-Inland Empire metro area. Or larger than England.

Seems extraordinarily unrealistic.

At current densities Dallas would sprawl into Oklahoma and Houston into Louisiana, so assigning ALL the projected population gains of these metros to "Texas" (as if they voted and paid taxes there and contributed to Texas' weight nationally) is incorrect

Phoenix would occupy half of Arizona as you correctly calculate, but it would at least still be in Arizona! (edit: or not! see post below)

[lio45]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

Phoenix, Texas?

I suppose the Lone Star State expanding westward and annexing both NM and AZ is about as serious and realistic as these population projections are in the first place, so why not

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by lio45

Phoenix, Texas?

I suppose the Lone Star State expanding westward and annexing both NM and AZ is about as serious and realistic as these population projections are in the first place, so why not

Miami at 13.78M is just as ridiculous. Unless the metro grows to include the Orlando area there is no room for that many people.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Miami at 13.78M is just as ridiculous. Unless the metro grows to include the Orlando area there is no room for that many people.

Don't forget they ALSO have Orlando at 14M+, so that's 28 million people for Miami and Orlando together, in that scenario the two metros certainly touch each other, and Orlando and Tampa have also merged (Tampa would have what, another 10M?) ...

All I have to say to the people who wrote this article, is to offer them my Chicago projections:
(yep, I dug them up )

1840 - 4,470 (actual)
1850 - 29,963 (actual)
1860 - 200,846 (projected)
1870 - 1,346,297 (projected)
1880 - 9,024,406 (projected)
1890 - 60,491,785 (projected)
1900 - 405,484,419 (projected)
1910 - 2,718,015,581 (projected)
1920 - 18,219,217,187 (projected)
1930 - 122,125,817,578 (projected)
1940 - 818,625,474,740 (projected)
1950 - 5,487,354,600,000 (projected)
1960 - 36,782,462,000,000 (projected)
1970 - 246,557,700,000,000 (projected)
1980 - 1,652,708,800,000,000 (projected)
1990 - 11,078,325,000,000,000 (projected)
2000 - 74,259,475,000,000,000 (projected)
2010 - 497,771,060,000,000,000 (projected)
2020 - 3,336,625,100,000,000,000 (projected)
2030 - 22,365,838,000,000,000,000 (projected)

[UrbanImpact]

Originally Posted by dave8721

Miami at 13.78M is just as ridiculous. Unless the metro grows to include the Orlando area there is no room for that many people.

Miami-Dade/Broward/West Palm Beach would have to demolish all the suburban gated communities and build highrises in their place.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by mrnyc

Texas' population expected to reach 96 million by 2100-- making it largest in US

Oh please, spare me. Anybody who attempts to make population projections that far off are fools.

[Steely Dan]

Originally Posted by UrbanImpact

Miami-Dade/Broward/West Palm Beach would have to demolish all the suburban gated communities and build highrises in their place.

Not necessarily.

20,000 ppsm is very doable without highrises.

My neighborhood in Chicago exceeds that mark with nothing standing over 5 stories tall.

At 20,000 ppsm, the current 1,244 sq. mile foot print of the Miami UA could hold nearly 25M people without any highrises at all.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Not necessarily.

20,000 ppsm is very doable without highrises.

My neighborhood in Chicago exceeds that mark with nothing over 5 stories tall.

At 20,000 ppsm, the current 1,244 sq. mile foot print of the Miami UA could hold nearly 25M people without any highrises at all.

Serious question: would this be possible under modern construction standards? (Add hurricane-rating requirements to boot...)

"20,000 ppsm in pre-WWII urban fabric that would be illegal to build today for various reasons" is nothing to write home about