Quebec, the French Language, and Quebecois Identity

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

It's better tied to your main trading and economic partner. Many shocks have seen the Canadian dollar devalue cushioning us from US recessions. A peg has downsides in that you have to trust that Quebec will always hold the peg. Many especially smart people and companies would move their savings outside Quebec to mitigate this risk. All trade would be denominated in Canadian and US dollars anyway. Canadian companies could agree to use USD for trade if Quebec pegged or adopted that but there would be a cost of that in addition to all the other trade friction that would arise. Brexit shows how unbelievably complicated it is to disentangle modern trade blocs. It is not 1995 anymore.

The PQ and PSPP are not in fact proposing a Brexit-style dismantling of the Canada-Quebec trade relationship, though Canada-sans-Québec might have other ideas.

[Ozabald]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Or the peso..........

or the Ciggy; St. Rene on the front; cigarette hanging from his mouth.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Smart post. In terms of the informal or temporary peg to another currency, what would be the advantage of the CAD over the USD?

Most of the debt held by the Quebec government, Quebec corporations, and citizens is currently held in CAD. A 1:1 peg to the CAD means that the effective debt level does not change for current debtors. As the debt approaches maturity and new debt is issued in the home currency, the need for the peg decreases.

Pegging to the USD introduces a currency uncertainty to any CAD-denominated debt. If there's a fixed Quebec:USD peg, but a floating CAD:USD still exists, the effective amount of debt may change if the floating exchange moves because the Quebec:CAD ratio is effectively still not fixed. It just will do so at the whim of conditions in the US, or perceived world economic conditions.

In 1998, currency traders fled to the USD during the Asian/Russian financial crisis, tanking the CAD exchange to ~60cents. In 2008/09, the US financial meltdown and high oil prices caused the CAD to spike above par on perceived US economic weakness.

This is why many countries prefer to borrow in local currency, because this uncertainty can introduce a wide range of consequences based on the structure/conditions of the debt.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So in that sense, the current minister who is a member of the CAQ might be right that the US dollar could be a better option given the relative stability that comes from the fact that its management and value is driven by more purely mercantile and economic considerations (since we're talking about the US) and probably and incredibly, not quite as political as decisions affecting the Canadian dollar are.

The independent République du Québec using bills with "In God we trust" written in English on them? Seriously?

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by thewave46

This is fine, but it sometimes makes choices for you. Especially depending on your trade partners.

In any case an independent Québec is never going to adopt the US dollar as its currency. It would be absolutely impractical from an economic, legal, technical, and political point of view. It's just some crackpot idea. Which is why it's weird a governing minister would entertain the idea.

There are only two serious possibilities in case of Québec's independence: keeping the Canadian dollar, or issuing their own currency. What's novel (and bold I think) is the fact a PQ leader dares to favor the latter. It's an issue that has always plagued the Québec and Scottish independence movements. Usually the independence leaders are afraid to tell the electorate that they would adopt a new currency, so they say they'll keep the old one, which exposes them to easy political attacks, because obviously these two countries would find it difficult to keep the sterling pound/Canadian dollar if they became independent.

Here Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is bolder than Nicola Sturgeon was, since he doesn't skirt the issue and addresses it head on. I'm not sure it won't scare voters though. I was reading the reactions by Francophone readers on Radio Canada, and most of them were negative.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

In terms of the name of the currency, it could be the Franc or even the Piastre!

In that Radio Canada article, I see a lot of Francophone readers talked of a piastre québécoise. It perhaps makes sense from a Québec slang perspective, since that's already how you call the dollar in slang, but from an international French perspective, that would sound very odd, because "piastre" refers to colonial currencies used in French Indochina, French India, and the Middle East. So it would sound very... Asian, and odd for Québec.

The piastre was never used in Québec, and nobody knows really whether the way you guys call the dollar in slang really has anything to do with the piastre, or just comes from the word "pièce". Let's note that in Côte d'Ivoire French slang, money is called "pia", so I have a tendency to think that all these slang words really come from "pièce" and not from "piastre" (which was a currency used neither in French Canada nor in French Africa).



In France there was a major piastre scandal in the 1950s. Some people got filthy rich by trafficking the piastre-franc exchange rate: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affaire_des_piastres

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Acajack

The PQ and PSPP are not in fact proposing a Brexit-style dismantling of the Canada-Quebec trade relationship, though Canada-sans-Québec might have other ideas.

True they'd actually love to have UK before Brexit. Common market but sovereignty over most affairs. It's not really possible though. Would we give Quebec a veto over future free trade deals ? If not we'll probably give up milk cartel at some point to get more access for cars and beef. If milk is half in much in Ontario it would decimate Quebec dairy. Just one example of political union being a requirement to have a common market. Otherwise you need some friction to protect markets.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

In any case an independent Québec is never going to adopt the US dollar as its currency. It would be absolutely impractical from an economic, legal, technical, and political point of view. It's just some crackpot idea. Which is why it's weird a governing minister would entertain the idea.

There are only two serious possibilities in case of Québec's independence: keeping the Canadian dollar, or issuing their own currency. What's novel (and bold I think) is the fact a PQ leader dares to favor the latter. It's an issue that has always plagued the Québec and Scottish independence movements. Usually the independence leaders are afraid to tell the electorate that they would adopt a new currency, so they say they'll keep the old one, which exposes them to easy political attacks, because obviously these two countries would find it difficult to keep the sterling pound/Canadian dollar if they became independent.

Here Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is bolder than Nicola Sturgeon was, since he doesn't skirt the issue and addresses it head on. I'm not sure it won't scare voters though. I was reading the reactions by Francophone readers on Radio Canada, and most of them were negative.

I think what are deal-breakers for people can vary over time.

PSPP is playing the long game so this is a calculated gamble that he can sell this in the future when the time comes. Setting the stage at this point.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

It's Moncton-adjacent. Sackville is not part of the CMA. It is a 30 minute drive

With traffic these days in Montreal, most Montrealers are more than a 30 minute drive from McGill too …

[lio45]

Originally Posted by harls

"Budget de l'an 1"..

Jesus Christ.

What’s the problem exactly? All serious opposition parties always do this stuff: shadow cabinet, “fantasy” budget to show what they’d do if/when they were/will be the ones in charge. Nothing special here, it’s perfectly normal.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

PSPP is playing the long game so this is a calculated gamble that he can sell this in the future when the time comes. Setting the stage at this point.

I think so too. That's why I posted it in the first place, because it's quite significant. But in the short term, it's quite risky from his own perspective. It might cost him the next election.

[Acajack]

I believe François Legault himself may have prepared a Budget de l'An 1 back when he was with the PQ.

I mean, one of the criticisms of the PQ and separatists in general is that they're pie-in-the-sky dreamers with no actual plans.

Now they work on plans and such and start sharing them, and they still get crapped on.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by lio45

With traffic these days in Montreal, most Montrealers are more than a 30 minute drive from McGill too …

Isn't Montréal supposed to have the least traffic jams in North America thanks to its dense autoroutes network?

[Acajack]

While the status quo (federalism) is still the majority view in Quebec by a decent margin, it's notable that the most strongly federalist side (embodied by the PLQ) is almost completely bereft of ideas for improving Quebec's place in the federation.

It's almost as blunt as "Canada is perfect the way it is - take it or leave it".

The CAQ which says it is nationalist but not separatist is also getting criticized more and more for not being demanding and affirmative enough with Ottawa, but so far has been able to mostly been able to avoid getting tarred with the "immobilist" brush.

PSPP still has a long way to go (maybe an impossible task, TBQH) but if he does come up with his silver bullet(s) it's going to be very interesting to see how the Liberals (provincial and federal) react, because for the moment it looks like they haven't got a clue and have been winning simply due to the decades-long weakness of the other side.

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

is almost completely bereft of ideas for improving Quebec's place in the federation.

That's because it's nearly impossible honestly. Québec was 33% of Canada, then 25%, then now 20%, and tomorrow 15%, and long term probably only 10%. No way they can improve the place of that province in the federation. Québec's future is one of increasing "marginalisation" in an increasingly Anglophone and multi-cultural Canada rejecting Francophone and secular particularisms.

Of course these changes take place slowly, so it's a case of the frog in a slowly heating pot of water.

[big T]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

Isn't Montréal supposed to have the least traffic jams in North America thanks to its dense autoroutes network?

upload pic

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by New Brisavoine

That's because it's nearly impossible honestly. Québec was 33% of Canada, then 25%, then now 20%, and tomorrow 15%, and long term probably only 10%. No way they can improve the place of that province in the federation. Québec's future is one of increasing "marginalisation" in an increasingly Anglophone and multi-cultural Canada rejecting Francophone and secular particularisms.

Of course these changes take place slowly, so it's a case of the frog in a slowly heating pot of water.

A true confederation based on something similar to the Swiss model might do the trick.

[Acajack]

Nothing new about what PSPP is saying and doing.

https://twitter.com/PaulPlamondon/status/1715367760677523890

[New Brisavoine]

Originally Posted by Acajack

A true confederation based on something similar to the Swiss model might do the trick.

Different history. The Swiss model is not adaptable elsewhere. Besides in Switzerland the share of the Francophone minority in the Swiss confederation is RISING, not declining.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

With traffic these days in Montreal, most Montrealers are more than a 30 minute drive from McGill too …

This is well off topic, but I will respond.

I agree that long commutes in big cities are not unusual, but, the commute from Moncton to Sackville is 30 minutes at 120 km/hr on a four lane divided highway through dense woodland populated by moose, and with dodgy weather conditions for at least four months during the academic year. Southeast NB is the Atlantic Canadian snowbelt and we usually get at least two nor'easters every month during January, February and March with 30 cm of snow and winds up to 80-100 km/hr. This can be quite challenging for an inexperienced 18 year old trying to get to class on time. It isn't quite the same thing as a traffic jam on the Decarie Expressway.

The absence of an anglophone university in Moncton means that anglophone students in the city, if they want a quality university education, have to move away from home, and, this automatically doubles the cost of university education for anglo Monctonians (food, lodging, transportation). This is almost a human rights issue.

An equivalent situation in Quebec would be if the only university in Sherbrooke was Bishops, and the francophone majority students, if they wanted to be educated in French, would have to move to Montreal or Quebec City. You can just imagine how insulted the francophone majority population in Sherbrooke would be over this situation. They would be marching in the streets with pitchforks!!!