Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

I just don't think outside of a small set of frequent flyers that most passengers are all that loyal. And certainly not to the point that they'd forego non-stop travel and easier connections for close to the same price.

I don't see the need for AC to really defend anything till 2026. Especially in a government town where a good chunk of business travelers have far less flexibility on travel rules and budgets. They'll win back business when they launch. If there's a direct flight to LHR that is gate to gate in less than 8 hrs, guess what most people are getting booked on?

Maybe AF stays. But their growth can and will be capped. And other entrants could probably be discouraged from launching in the first place. That's an easy win for AC with 3-4 XLRs out of Ottawa.

I think 4 European destinations with XLRs is very optimistic. London is a slot issue so a smaller plane is actually a waste of an expensive slot. For sure they would grab all the London traffic but the connections are where the real money is. Especially as you point out Government travel to London would be under 8 hours and hence economy class. It's the flights to further afield in Europe as well as Africa, Middle East and the like that Air France can and is stealing.

There are still a lot of Toronto flights that are still to come back which means it's two stops to a lot of destinations on Air Canada.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

I think 4 European destinations with XLRs is very optimistic.

Why? If YOW could support two widebodies at almost daily schedule (FRA and LHR), then 3-4 XLR doesn't seem like that much of a stretch, especially given population growth and the connections possible from these destinations. LHR and FRA/MUC could definitely sustain daily XLRs from YOW. I don't know how many passengers are connecting at CDG on AF, but I would guess that o/d could be enough to support a daily XLR on AC. LHR and FRA are likely for me as a minimum. My wildcards are CDG and BRU.

Originally Posted by YOWetal

London is a slot issue so a smaller plane is actually a waste of an expensive slot. For sure they would grab all the London traffic but the connections are where the real money is. Especially as you point out Government travel to London would be under 8 hours and hence economy class. It's the flights to further afield in Europe as well as Africa, Middle East and the like that Air France can and is stealing.

That demand is fungible though. YOW-LHR direct will probably yield better in economy than YYZ-LHR and certainly better than YOW-YYZ-LHR. Saving on business class entitlement means so many of those government travelers will pay well for a Y seat. And connections can be sent onwards with LH via FRA or MUC on the other XLR flight.

I do think that if AC was willing to send a 788 several days per week to LHR, they won't have an issue with using a slot for a daily XLR from here. Also, we're talking about an airline that sends a 738 from LHR to YHZ. They can make up for supposed inefficient use of a slot by simply upgauging other LHR flights from YYZ, YVR or YUL. Looking at YYZ-LHR, for example, it's 3x789 + 1x77W today. I would think 3x77W on YYZ-LHR and 1xXLR on YOW-LHR offers better yields and a more consistent product out of YYZ while letting them open up a new market where they can get a premium. The net loss of seats out of YYZ (94) is more than made up for by offering 182 seats out of YOW. I would guess that there's definitely more than 94 pax per day from YOW to LHR flying via YYZ. In theory that actually could even mean more seats opened up at YYZ for o/d or other connections.

[MountainView]

My thoughts on the on going conversation are:

1) If AF was concerned with the route, they would start to lower their prices like AC/ Star A are on YOW-Trans-Atlantic. I think there are certainly folks in our region who will pay a premium to start their journey on a YOW-Europe(CDG) leg as oppose to a YOW-YYZ/YUL-Europe leg. Especially if the YYZ/YUL trip involves a double connection (i.e.: YOW-YUL-FRA-RAK versus YOW-CDG-RAK). Also, the local business group and tourism Ottawa are on-board with this flight. The Sens are playing 2 games in Stockholm this year, and they sold packages to fans to attend... and the airfare was YOW-CDG-ARN. They made sure to mention this in their promotional material for this. Also, AF still offers the bus/coach service to YUL daily with KLM. I would wager the O&D might be 50/50 of the passengers onboard... maybe higher connections in the shoulder seasons. Lastly, the route is supported by the YOW airport authority. They want it to succeed.

2) I give it a 75% chance AC flies YOW-LHR non-stop before the A321XLRs are brought online. As others have mentioned, this route serves a lot of O&D where folks start their trip in London and go elsewhere in Europe after this. AC are still pumping up their hubs though.

3) I would say it's a near 100% chance AC starts YOW-LHR or FRA with the A321XLRs. They definitely also want to start YYZ/YUL to secondary Europe markets with this plane, so YOW might not be there right off the bat, but shortly after. Perhaps also on the Trans-Con YVR route but this is less likely since YVR might not have many XLR routes besides PTY and South America so the plane would have to turn right back. (whereas a 788/9 could then fly anywhere from YVR).

I hope the YOW market can sustain AF year round... there is definitely still penny pinchers who will fly YOW-YUL-— to save $200 or drive to YUL to avoid "delays" but those come at a price too. The fact AF is here in the winter during slow travel times is saying something. Let's see what their schedule is like in the summer of 2024 when France is hosting the Olympics and even more people are ready to explore the world post-pandemic.

[Truenorth00]

^ Any idea what demand is on YOW-LHR?

From my rough math, if there's more than 100 pax/day going from YOW to LHR via YYZ or YUL or YHZ, it absolutely makes sense to use a slot for YOW and upgauge departures elsewhere to compensate. AC will have more tools to upgauge coming up with the 78J.

[fanofYOW]

YOW-YYC with PD looks like will be announced soon.

https://www.flyporter.com/en-ca/about-porter/who-we-are/porter-and-embraer

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

YOW-YYC with PD looks like will be announced soon.

https://www.flyporter.com/en-ca/about-porter/who-we-are/porter-and-embraer

February 14, 2024:

YOW 18:20 - YYC 20:49

YYC 08:50 - YOW 14:40

[Dominion301]

PD PR: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/po...ction-with-ottawa-calgary-864418777.html

Today's departure count: 70 (yesterday was 74)

Today's cancellation count (so far): 1 - it's AF - so keep that in mind when calculating # of international flights operated & LF during the month of October. September also had 1 AF cancellation.

An evening westbound departure bank is slowly building (14FEB23):
YYC: 1820
YEG: 1920
YVR: 2005
YYZ: 2135
YTZ: 1900 & 2025

For the remainder of the winter, here's what the new YYC flights connect to/from:
-to/from YTZ
-from YYZ
-to/from YQT
-to/from YFC (double connect via YTZ from YYC)
-to/from YQM (double connect via YTZ from YQM)
-from YHZ (will become to/from once the 1745 YHZ departure returns in the spring)
-from YYT (YYT-YYZ-YOW-YYC - double the travel time though vs the YYT-YYZ-YYC routing - a YYT-YOW nonstop this summer would likely change this)
-to/from EWR (double connect via YTZ from EWR)
-to/from MCO (double connect via YYZ from MCO and 4.5 extra hrs vs the MCO-YYZ-YYC offering)
-to/from FLL (double connect via YYZ from FLL and 4.5 extra hrs vs the MCO-YYZ-YYC offering)
-to/from BOS (double connect via YTZ from BOS) - Interestingly Porter Reserve is currently $58 cheaper out of BOS than Porter Classic.

EDIT: BOS, FLL & MCO added.

[YOWflier]

To FLL and MCO and BOS would work just based on times but not from.

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by YOWflier

To FLL and MCO and BOS would work just based on times but not from.

That seems to be a weird blind spot in Porter's schedules so far. YEG/YYC/YVR-YOW can all feed YOW-MCO/FLL but not the reverse. And you can do YOW-YYZ-LAX/SFO but not the reverse either.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

That seems to be a weird blind spot in Porter's schedules so far. YEG/YYC/YVR-YOW can all feed YOW-MCO/FLL but not the reverse. And you can do YOW-YYZ-LAX/SFO but not the reverse either.

Therein lies the issue with only 1x daily so far on a lot of routes, but in the case of FLL & MCO and others, at present PD will deliberately connect you over YYZ in one direction and YOW in the other.

[Dominion301]

Today's departure count: 71

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

[RomanR27]

The AF flight is running today, presumably to make up for yesterday's cancellation.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

The AF flight is running today, presumably to make up for yesterday's cancellation.

Good catch. Maybe mean's loads were good enough to fill a plane today instead of reroute folks via YUL (and bus) or YYZ (and Westjet). Perhaps if Delta still flew here, it would be different.

If you check AF's flight status page, it's actually Tuesday's flights but with a "+1" indicating today's date as oppose to yesterday.

Which is weird... since the flight was "cancelled". FlightAware shows it as an on-time flight today.

[fanofYOW]

Anyone have any updates on the Porter hangar? Is it still on time for late 2023/early 2024 opening?

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Anyone have any updates on the Porter hangar? Is it still on time for late 2023/early 2024 opening?

I drive by it often (on Riverside south of Hunt Club) and the outside looks mostly done, minus the door area. I assume if the shell can be completed before snowfall, that they'll be on target for their projected opening.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by MountainView

I drive by it often (on Riverside south of Hunt Club) and the outside looks mostly done, minus the door area. I assume if the shell can be completed before snowfall, that they'll be on target for their projected opening.

Great thanks for that. Hopefully there will be no delays.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

^ Any idea what demand is on YOW-LHR?

From my rough math, if there's more than 100 pax/day going from YOW to LHR via YYZ or YUL or YHZ, it absolutely makes sense to use a slot for YOW and upgauge departures elsewhere to compensate. AC will have more tools to upgauge coming up with the 78J.

Pre-pandemic it was around 100k/year, which if you're wanting mostly the generally higher yielding O&D and forego a lot of LHR Star connections and non-Star interlines would be a 75% LF on a daily year-round XLR assuming 100% of the O&D is on that flight, which in reality would be 75% at best.

But it shows what AC's waiting for, especially with a fraction of the connections at the YOW end. The 767 some days could have north of 50 connecting pax over YOW.

Today's departure count: 74

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

[MountainView]

Air Greenland and Canadian North are launching a route servicing Nuuk to Iqaluit in June 2024.

The news article specifically mentions Ottawa and that the YOW-YFB flight will be timed for the Iqaluit-Nuuk flight.

Details:

Canadian North, the Arctic’s leading airline, today unveiled its strategic plans to expand to the awe-inspiring landscapes of Greenland. This move marks a momentous milestone as its first-ever international flight, embarking on a new chapter of Arctic connectivity. Launching in 2024, the new seasonal route will operate from Ottawa to Nuuk, Greenland, with a connection in Iqaluit, from June to October.

News articles:

Canadian North to Launch First-Ever International Flight to Greenland in Partnership with Air Greenland

Air Greenland launches a route to Iqaluit

[MountainView]

Porter is launching YYZ-LAS daily starting March 5.

I have noticed that Porter doesn't do anything less than daily. I am hoping that SFO or LAX might come on board from YOW beginning in Summer (end of May) 2024, when their Florida routes draw down for the season.

[fanofYOW]

Originally Posted by MountainView

Porter is launching YYZ-LAS daily starting March 5.

I have noticed that Porter doesn't do anything less than daily. I am hoping that SFO or LAX might come on board from YOW beginning in Summer (end of May) 2024, when their Florida routes draw down for the season.

Yup I noticed the same. Seems like they are going for routes that can sustain daily for now. I’m sure LAS, SFO, LAX will come once they announce (hopefully) more feed from YYT and YQB, or launch less than 7x weekly, which I’m sure they can. Although, they can change time slots to use YHZ, YYG, YQM, and YFC to feed YOW and it would probably be fine with just that, but seems like they are choosing not to currently on some routes from YOW.