LOS ANGELES | Downtown Project Rundown 6.0

[craigs]

A couple more renderings:

[LA21st]

I was in Seattle the last 4 days. Pretty much saw all of downtown and neighboring areas. A few things-

1) It is the 4th best downtown i've seen in the U.S. Not the 4th most vibrant, but I think the built environment/size is 4 behind NYC, Chicago, SF. The amount of new towers and construction is very impressive. For vibrancy it's behind those 3, Philly, Boston, and possibly DC and LA. DC isn't what it was.

2) I dont know why it's not as vibrant as it should be. The only places that looked busy were tourist areas (Pikes Market/1st Ave/waterfront) and the Seattle Center, and the Pine/Pike shopping district. The big Amazon neighborhood (South Lake Union) was pretty quiet, even on a weekday at lunch. I don't get it. All these big modern office towers and apartments and it just...idk. It looks nice, although kinda soul less in those new sections. Where the hell is everyone? There's all this new housing but it felt like there's not enough retail/storefronts to go with it. It def hurt the street level feel.

3) Seattle is much grimer than I expected. Not a grimy city per se, but you never hear how sketchy Pioneer Square/International District/Belltown/Capitol Hill can be on these kinds of forums. Empty storefronts with graffiti in the nice areas. Strange people wandering/yelling in almost every section of downtown. Pikes Market seemed to be immune to that weirdness. Third or 2nd ave near/in the financial district looked pretty gnarly. Is Seattle focusing on the new Amazon area? The "old" part of downtown Seattle looks like it's being left behind. It was boring to walk around, not much different than LA's financial district.

The international district SHOULD be some kind of tourist area but is somewhat run down. Little Tokyo is far more vibrant, and is Chinatown is as well.

4) The homeless/drug addicts is bad and all over downtown. Even next to the big department stores and outside every subway station there. Not as bad as SF or LA but it must be 4. I haven't seen Austin yet and I'm sure it's the same deal. Everyone just focuses on the new construction/tech and ignores all the bad, unlike with California.

5) In regards to LA, Seattle is kicking our but for new housing. That was one of the biggest take aways, we're so far behind. I'd say Chicago is behind Seattle too, Seattle seems to be building everywhere.

6) Their subway stations were cleaner than LA but has the same issue of homeless/tents right outside. Pioneer Square, especially. The trains didnt seem packed. They were doing ok, but not great

I dont think LA will catch up to Seattle for built environment. But it could for vibrancy/street life. If not, already. Its hard to compare.

[colemonkee]

Seeing the 4th & Central project inch forward is a good sign that developers are playing the long game and getting their projects ready for when financial conditions improve and lending becomes more favorable. The association with David Adjaye could be a problematic one given allegations against him, and hoping his firm is able to navigate that as I really like the design of this one. It's unique and would be his first ground-up project in LA (his only noteworthy project is The Webster storefront on the northwest corner of the Beverly Center), making a pretty sizeable impact on the skyline from the east, south, and north.

[Zapatan]

Cool project but I hope it actually "moves forward" unlike so many LA projects that were "moving forward" only to never. I know Covid affected things but still.

Anyway, I wonder if Mitsui is still on board to Q1 2024. That'd be awesome.

California is the worst place to do condos due to laws that makes it super easy for HOAs to win lawsuits. Multi family construction will come back in full swing though come 2025.

That sucks, but why the optimism about 2025? Are interest rates predicted to go down then or something? I read mixed things.

You would think that the City/state government, when it was announced that LA would be hosting the 2028 Olympics that they would have slashed red tape and made it easier for the city to oh idk, look more impressive and presentable? ha-ha, instead they did the opposite. Now watch all of a sudden in the next 2 years there will be a scramble to figure out how to hide the homeless and to have cranes dotting the skyline as if we're booming again. Not being pessimistic by any means or a negative nancy, just annoyed with the idiots running the show in city hall. SOOOOO many things like the housing crisis, exodus, corporate exodus, crime and homeless could be solved with a swipe of a pen but state/city leaders just shrug it off as if its there's nothing they can do. Its so absurd and odd.

It's a crime how LA is run, just terrible. Hope the city can learn a valuable lesson and get its act together long before 2028.

[Radio5]

Originally Posted by Zapatan

Cool project but I hope it actually "moves forward" unlike so many LA projects that were "moving forward" only to never. I know Covid affected things but still.

Anyway, I wonder if Mitsui is still on board to Q1 2024. That'd be awesome.


That sucks, but why the optimism about 2025? Are interest rates predicted to go down then or something? I read mixed things.

It's a crime how LA is run, just terrible. Hope the city can learn a valuable lesson and get its act together long before 2028.

Yes, interest rates are expected to go down by then. But of course, nobody really knows. But also the build up to the olympics is another boost for LA.

[citywatch]

Originally Posted by LA21st

I dont think LA will catch up to Seattle for built environment. But it could for vibrancy/street life. If not, already. Its hard to compare.

Kind of sad if a secondary city is outflanking a supposedly larger one. LA...dtla...however, among the larger urban areas of the US & world has always been an outlier. In one way, that's a good thing, in other ways it's not. Sometimes the strengths of a city aren't as obvious as they really are, while the weaknesses of a city may seem more obvious than they actually are. LA is more complicated or multi layered than secondary cities are. It's more complete.

As for top dog cities & their highrises that traditionally outdo LA, this proj reminds me of a newer, taller version of dtla's old atlantic richfield bldg. That's one of the landmarks of old dtla that I most regret is no longer around.

https://youtu.be/w0xGE-JZnsY?si=NG1kxD2mZpF6j_Ua

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by citywatch

Kind of sad if a secondary city is outflanking a supposedly larger one. LA...dtla...however, among the larger urban areas of the US & world has always been an outlier. In one way, that's a good thing, in other ways it's not. Sometimes the strengths of a city aren't as obvious as they really are, while the weaknesses of a city may seem more obvious than they actually are. LA is more complicated or multi layered than secondary cities are. It's more complete.

As for top dog cities & their highrises that traditionally outdo LA, this proj reminds me of a newer, taller version of dtla's old atlantic richfield bldg. That's one of the landmarks of old dtla that I most regret is no longer around.

https://youtu.be/w0xGE-JZnsY?si=NG1kxD2mZpF6j_Ua

It's kinda sad all those new towers in Seattle have empty streets. Just like with Miami .
I don't think downtown la is doing that bad outside of skid row.
Seattle has the same issue with vacant storefronts and homeless/weirdos. It must have a office vacancy problem with how quiet the financial district was.
It has a better shopping street for a few blocks but not really impressive.

[sopas ej]

Originally Posted by citywatch

https://youtu.be/w0xGE-JZnsY?si=NG1kxD2mZpF6j_Ua

Oh gosh, is 1980s Post-modernism back in style?

That actually gives me PPG Place in Pittsburgh vibes. BTW I've never been to Pittsburgh, I've only seen PPG Place in pictures.

PPG Place

[colemonkee]

It's not being classified as post Modernism any more, but there is a recent trend of Deco Revival, or buildings that use various elements of Art Deco in their design language and materials choices. We're not seeing many of these in LA, unfortunately. I personally LOVE the trend and there are a lot of firms doing it very well (SHoP, Cetra-Ruddy, etc.).

[citywatch]

The posts above remind me how both the built environment & the number of ppl out & about really set the tone of a city. If even Compton or Sylmar had lots of ppl walking around, those areas would automatically seem better or more popular. In turn, if a fancy new highrise like that bldg in NYC is surrounded by fairly vacant sidewalks, it will lose a lot of impact.

Which comes to this company based in SF. I thought the 2 bldgs they own in dtla were going to be converted into apts. But they're instead going to be hotels. As for hotels & number of tourists...or ppl walking around....SF is taking quite a hit right now. That throws things for a loop because if SF is vulnerable to falling apart, dtla has even less room to maneuver. It's shocking how far down dtla ended up over 30 yrs ago....streets like Spring, Broadway, 8th St....it's shocking to see what's occurring right now in SF. No one & no where is safe.

A San Francisco-based hospitality firm has made its entrance into the Downtown market with a pair of adaptive reuse projects near Pershing Square.


laurbanize.com


laurbanize.com

[Quixote]

This is how you break up a large parcel of land. In hindsight, this is what Oceanwide Plaza should've been, although a bit taller.

Originally Posted by craigs

[SoCalKid]

Originally Posted by Radio5

Yes, interest rates are expected to go down by then. But of course, nobody really knows. But also the build up to the olympics is another boost for LA.

Interest rates going down would make a huge difference. I don't think the Olympics will make any meaningful difference for development. Development projects are valued on their ability to create perpetual cash flow (i.e. recurring, long term), and a couple months of boosted revenue won't really move the needle. The caveat would be if it motivates the city to cut fees, affordability requirements, etc. or to subsidize developments through property tax abatements (like they've historically done for hotels in DTLA).

[202_Cyclist]

Originally Posted by SoCalKid

Interest rates going down would make a huge difference. I don't think the Olympics will make any meaningful difference for development. Development projects are valued on their ability to create perpetual cash flow (i.e. recurring, long term), and a couple months of boosted revenue won't really move the needle. The caveat would be if it motivates the city to cut fees, affordability requirements, etc. or to subsidize developments through property tax abatements (like they've historically done for hotels in DTLA).

Indeed-- the Olympics, while exciting will probably not have much, if any impact. People will be in city for 2 - 3 weeks. I was at an event several years ago with someone from the London Heathrow Express and he said that ridership was either stagnant or went down during the London Olympics because all the tourists who would usually visit planned their vacations for other times.

[LA21st]

I think we'll see a decent amount of additional hotels at the very least.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by LA21st

I think we'll see a decent amount of additional hotels at the very least.

Agreed.

I also think that we'll see a successful push to get the Purple Line up and running in time for the games, because UCLA is going to be the Olympic Village. There will be thousands of national and international athletes and related visitors who will happily schlep over to Westwood and Wilshire to take the subway.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by craigs

Agreed.

I also think that we'll see a successful push to get the Purple Line up and running in time for the games, because UCLA is going to be the Olympic Village. There will be thousands of national and international athletes and related visitors who will happily schlep over to Westwood and Wilshire to take the subway.

That's true. Beverly Hills will be swamped like never before with the athletes/media with that quick train ride. Century City/Westfield too.

Maybe we'll see some big hotels come to Westwood/Brentwood since it doesn't have many. There's still time. I can see Century City adding, maybe?

[Zapatan]

Originally Posted by SoCalKid

Interest rates going down would make a huge difference. I don't think the Olympics will make any meaningful difference for development. Development projects are valued on their ability to create perpetual cash flow (i.e. recurring, long term), and a couple months of boosted revenue won't really move the needle. The caveat would be if it motivates the city to cut fees, affordability requirements, etc. or to subsidize developments through property tax abatements (like they've historically done for hotels in DTLA).

What is the best source to look at interest rate trends + accurate predictions?

Really hope that happens. LA is underperforming for such a city development-wise.



While the Olympics won't do anything it would be nice to have some cool projects to show off before then.

[LAsam]

Originally Posted by Zapatan

What is the best source to look at interest rate trends + accurate predictions?

Really hope that happens. LA is underperforming for such a city development-wise.



While the Olympics won't do anything it would be nice to have some cool projects to show off before then.

Chatham Financial offers forward curves for interest rates. That's a good source: https://www.chathamfinancial.com/technology/us-forward-curves

[hughfb3]

Carmel's arts district tower has been topped out for a few weeks now.





A view with the podium in the foreground. I already know someone wants to mention the power lines... RESIST!!

Onni's tower from the east

Originally Posted by citywatch

The posts above remind me how both the built environment & the number of ppl out & about really set the tone of a city. If even Compton or Sylmar had lots of ppl walking around, those areas would automatically seem better or more popular. In turn, if a fancy new highrise like that bldg in NYC is surrounded by fairly vacant sidewalks, it will lose a lot of impact.

Which comes to this company based in SF. I thought the 2 bldgs they own in dtla were going to be converted into apts. But they're instead going to be hotels. As for hotels & number of tourists...or ppl walking around....SF is taking quite a hit right now. That throws things for a loop because if SF is vulnerable to falling apart, dtla has even less room to maneuver. It's shocking how far down dtla ended up over 30 yrs ago....streets like Spring, Broadway, 8th St....it's shocking to see what's occurring right now in SF. No one & no where is safe.

Great news on the hotel openings. I dont think it's relevant to compare Central Los Angeles with San Francisco as SF depends greatly on the presence of major corporations for its downtown vibrancy. Los Angeles downtown for the past 15 years has reinvigorated itself independent of major corporate presence. If anything the financial district may empty but the old bank district, South Park and the Arts District have somewhat separately operating economics.

[Charmy2]

That Onni facade is starting to make me mad...idk why it just feels underwhelming. As for that Arts District tower, love it!