YVR Airport & Sea Island Developments Discussion

[trofirhen]

This upcoming major purchase of 787s by Air Canada, although several years away for the delivery date, should really enable AC to open up some new routes, including (hopefully) a couple from YVR.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4015076-ai...rce=seeking_alpha&utm_term=32821128.5666

[xd_1771]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

This upcoming major purchase of 787s by Air Canada, although several years away for the delivery date, should really enable AC to open up some new routes, including (hopefully) a couple from YVR.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4015076-ai...rce=seeking_alpha&utm_term=32821128.5666

2025 Q4 is 2 years away and not that far off IMO! It means they won't be far behind the A321XLRs. The timing could be incredible for YVR...

With Delta giving up on their PDX-HND route (and associated landing slot), I do wonder if AC could apply for a YVR-HND route (running into T3) to complement their YVR-NRT and ANA's YVR-HND running into T2

Or even see if Westjet is willing to try for YYC-HND

[nname]

The downside is that they're cancelling the 2 77Fs that are planned for YVR. So what happened to the YVR cargo facility? Is it cancelled entirely, or still going ahead but will use some 76F and passenger planes instead? Or they are planning to retire the oldest 77W/77L and convert them to freighters instead?

[trofirhen]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

2025 Q4 is 2 years away and not that far off IMO! It means they won't be far behind the A321XLRs. The timing could be incredible for YVR...

With Delta giving up on their PDX-HND route (and associated landing slot), I do wonder if AC could apply for a YVR-HND route (running into T3) to complement their YVR-NRT and ANA's YVR-HND running into T2

Or even see if Westjet is willing to try for YYC-HND

That all sounds plausible. Nevertheless, I'd love to see a couple of other routes opened up from YVR, once the planes are purchased and AC has the equipment.

[nname]

Originally Posted by trofirhen

That all sounds plausible. Nevertheless, I'd love to see a couple of other routes opened up from YVR, once the planes are purchased and AC has the equipment.

There are a few routes that are on AC's plan for starting/resuming, according to various presentations and interviews...

YVR-PEK
YVR-MEL
YVR-MNL
YVR-SGN
YVR-MCO

Previously mentioned and already started:

YVR-BKK
YVR-SIN
YVR-YHZ
YVR-IAD

Of course, doesn't mean they will actually start any of them. Or they might start something completely different like MIA, SNA, and YQB...

[nname]

Looks like FJ will again increase YVR-NAN to 3x weekly for peak summer 2024.

F8 updated their schedule for S24. YXU will be coming back, while YQG and YOW won't. Most route will have reduced frequency.

For the peak season (late June to early Sept):
14 - YYZ
13 - YYC, YEG
7 - LAX, SFO
6 - YKF
4 - YWG, LAS
3 - YUL, YXE
2 - YXU, PVR

LAS will have daily flight outside of this peak period.

[madog222]

It sounds like the 787-10 order is more for fleet replacement rather than expansion. The first to go will definitely be the older 333s and then likely the 77L, that leaves an expansion of 3 frames if the 12 options are not exercised.

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

2025 Q4 is 2 years away and not that far off IMO! It means they won't be far behind the A321XLRs. The timing could be incredible for YVR...

With Delta giving up on their PDX-HND route (and associated landing slot), I do wonder if AC could apply for a YVR-HND route (running into T3) to complement their YVR-NRT and ANA's YVR-HND running into T2

Or even see if Westjet is willing to try for YYC-HND

All Canada-Haneda daytime slots that were allocated by Japan are spoken for.
The Delta slots can't be moved from the US to Canada. It doesn't work like that, as Japan allocated a specific amount of Haneda slots to specific countries, based on demand. Obviously, the US got significantly more slots to Haneda than Canada did.

AC originally announced YVR-HND but I believe never followed through due to poor timing of the slots (they were nighttime slots). When Japan started awarding daytime slots, AC decided to use the slots on YYZ-HND instead.

The Delta slot will most likely be grabbed by UA. As I said, it cannot be transferred to Canada.

AC has been operating YYZ-HND for quite a number of years now and the route seems to be successful, so the chances of AC moving the HND slot to YVR are slim, especially with NH, a partner airline, already on the route. The chances of Japan granting even more Haneda slots to Canada are slim as well.

Originally Posted by madog222

It sounds like the 787-10 order is more for fleet replacement rather than expansion. The first to go will definitely be the older 333s and then likely the 77L, that leaves an expansion of 3 frames if the 12 options are not exercised.

That's the beauty of it. It can be either or, or a combination of both, depending on the circumstances.

AC can keep their oldest A330s until the end of this decade, so if demand is still strong by 2025-2026, chances are they will use the 787-10 for expansion. However, if there is a downturn, they can start parking the older A330s right away.

It's also worth noting that the 787-10 doesn't have the range for non stop flights to South-East Asia or Australia. Those routes will need the legs of the 787-9. So you're going to see AC use the additional capacity of the B787-10 on shorter trunk routes (like YVR-Japan or ICN), which will free up the 787-9s to start new routes.

Originally Posted by nname

There are a few routes that are on AC's plan for starting/resuming, according to various presentations and interviews...

YVR-PEK
YVR-MEL
YVR-MNL
YVR-SGN
YVR-MCO

Previously mentioned and already started:

YVR-BKK
YVR-SIN
YVR-YHZ
YVR-IAD

Of course, doesn't mean they will actually start any of them. Or they might start something completely different like MIA, SNA, and YQB...

SIN hasn't started yet. You forgot DXB as well, which hasn't started either.

[madog222]

AC's press release specifically states "They will be used to replace older, less efficient wide-body aircraft currently in the Air Canada fleet"
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ai...and-fuel-efficiency-drive-812165696.html

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by madog222

AC's press release specifically states "They will be used to replace older, less efficient wide-body aircraft currently in the Air Canada fleet"
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/ai...and-fuel-efficiency-drive-812165696.html

It's a press release. Short and sweet. They can't really elaborate about strategy in a press release.

Lucky for us, the CEO did elaborate a few days ago during an interview.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/airlines-lessors/air-canada-ceo-talks-strategy-focus-areas

FLEET PLANS

Air Canada’s orderbook is devoid of splashy new fleet announcements. The company’s last top-off order for 15 Airbus A220s, built in Mirabel, near Montreal, for a fleet total of 60 is 27 aircraft away from being fulfilled. The airline and its customers “love the aircraft,” Rosseau said, but they aren’t immune from the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issues, with five airframes grounded in August.

The airline also has an order for 30 ES-30s, a 30-seat electric regional aircraft being developed by Swedish manufacturer Heart Aerospace.

When asked about any upcoming RFPs for more MAXs, A220s or 787s, Rosseau was coy.

“It’s a combination of growth and replacement. It really depends on how the world evolves over the next little while,” he said.

So like I was saying, if by the time the 787-10s arrive, the demand is still there, it's almost a guarantee the A330s are staying a while longer. If not, then yes, the older ones will slowly start leaving the fleet.

We are seeing an example of this with the narrowbody fleet. With the arrival of the Max and the A220, everyone was pretty adamant that the A319s and A320s were done at AC. And yet, they still have a healthy number of both variants in the fleet. Some of those A320s are close to 33 years old, and still active. It will be the same with the A330s as long as the demand for travel is on the rise.

[whatnext]

Anyone know why a Transat A321 (?)has been sitting outside the old AC hangar for days if not weeks?

[Orcair]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Anyone know why a Transat A321 (?)has been sitting outside the old AC hangar for days if not weeks?

I believe the incident happened almost a year ago – it was hit by ground equipment and is waiting for parts:https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/air-t...five-month-old-air-transat-airbus-a321n/

[ninjakafi_81]

It's not for the entire season but for about a month BKK will be up to 5x weekly.

Air Canada in recent schedule update revised planned Vancouver – Bangkok Suvarnabhumi route for the first quarter of 2024. From Vancouver, the airline will restore previously planned 5th weekly flight, now scheduled between 16JAN24 and 19FEB24. Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner operates this route.

AC065 YVR2245 – 0610+2BKK 789 x46
AC066 BKK0835 – 0650YVR 789 x16

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/231003-ac1q24bkk

[phesto]

Originally Posted by nname

Was rushing to head to office

AC is once again trying 2x daily YVR-PHX for the summer season, with seasonal reduction to 1x daily for first 2 weeks of May.

Schedule-wise, some of the morning departures now move from 8am back to 9 or almost 10am, possibly due to the slot control?

Was looking at weekend YVR-PHX return flights in October a couple of weeks ago and the prices are insane....$1,800 CAD return and a couple of the Sunday return legs are actually fully booked, even business class.

I wound up having to book the return on WS through YYC which I hate to do but it saved me $700 over taking any of AC's one-stop options.

[abbymk]

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouve...t-yvr-passenger-statistics-2023-forecast

Looks like YVR is back to “normal”.

From January to September YVR has had 18.9 million passengers.

YVR saw 19.01 million for the entire 2022 year.

YVR is projected to see just over 25 million passengers this year. This will make it about a million less than the all time record in 2019 which saw 26.4 million.

Lots more numbers in the article

So does anyone know when they’ll restart and finish the parkade?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by abbymk

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/vancouve...t-yvr-passenger-statistics-2023-forecast

There is a mistake in that dailyhive article, and in the YVR press release for that matter as well.

Over the latest quarter, the three-month summer period between July 1 and September 30, 2023, Canada’s second busiest airport saw over 7.18 million passengers, representing a 21.7% increase over the same three-month period in 2022, and just under 30,000 passengers shy of the same three-month period in 2019.

https://www.yvr.ca/en/media/news-releases/2023/summer-by-the-numbers

YVR welcomed more than 7.1 million passengers from July through September, a 21.7 per cent increase over the same period last year and on par with 2019.

Hmm....

Firstly, the difference between July-Sept 2019 and July-Sept 2023 is more like 417,000, not 30,000. The difference in July alone was over 160,000, so how you can get that wrong I don't know.

In July-Sept 2019, YVR handled 7.6 million passengers, compared to 7.18 million in 2023.

As for YVR's comment, I understand that people/companies can manipulate stats to show whatever they want, but at least don't blatantly lie about being on par with 2019.

[abbymk]

Are you perhaps using StatCan data for your numbers. For some reason Statcan has lower passenger numbers than YVR themselves.

For example, total enplaned/deplaned in 2019:

YVR 26,379,870 passengers
Statcan 25,476,699 passengers

Difference of 903,171 passengers

2022:

YVR 19,013,416 passengers
Statcan 18,550,034 passengers

Difference of 463,382 passengers

https://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2023/07---july/july-passengers.pdf

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=2310025301

And it’s not YVR fudging the numbers because it looks like every airport in Canada has this difference in numbers.

For example YUL has a difference of 728,179 passengers for 2019.
YYZ says 50.5 million while Statcan says 49.1 million for 2019.

So if you’re using statcan while YVR is reporting their own numbers that’s where the discrepancy lies.

[xd_1771]

With porter introducing SFO and LAX routes out of YYZ, I wonder what are the chances they would eventually also run them out of YVR?

[thenoflyzone]

Originally Posted by abbymk

Are you perhaps using StatCan data for your numbers.

No. I used this.

https://www.yvr.ca/-/media/yvr/documents/facts-sheets/2023/07---july/july-passengers.pdf

Something with that latest press release is definitely wrong.

They claim a 21.7% increase from July-Sept 2022 to July-Sept 2023.

YVR handled 6.14 million passengers during those 3 months in 2022. A 21.7% increase would bring that up to 7.48 million passengers in 2023. And yet, they claim only 7.1 million+ passengers.

???

And btw, I think the discrepency between StatsCan and the airport authority numbers is because StatsCan doesn't count non-revenue passengers.

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by xd_1771

With porter introducing SFO and LAX routes out of YYZ, I wonder what are the chances they would eventually also run them out of YVR?

They havn't announced any crew bases outside of Toronto, Ottawa, Halifax and Montreal (which hasn't even started yet).
Don't hold your breathe. Its not in any announced plans as of yet. Expect Porter to be very Eastern Canada focused.