Ottawa Macdonald-Cartier International Airport (YOW/CYOW) 1.0

[fanofYOW]

Wow this article semi-confirms YOWflier’s comment about Flair and PD being in talks. YOW doesn’t seem too upset about Flair’s cut backs.

[kwoldtimer]

Someday, either Flair or Porter needs to run YOW-YKF.

[RomanR27]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Someday, either Flair or Porter needs to run YOW-YKF.

Porter would make sense since they could run Q400s on it. Not sure the route would have the volume to support the Embraer or Max8 capacity.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by rocketphish

[B][SIZE="4"]
The Ottawa Airport is predicting about four million passengers will use the facility this year, a 33 per cent increase from 2022, with traffic expected to increase to 4.75 million in 2024. By 2030, the airport authority is projecting that 5.6 million passengers will fly through YOW.

https://obj.ca/flair-planning-to-reduce-service-to-yow-next-summer-airport-says/

Hopefully with PD's help the airport will blow past that number by 2030.

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Someday, either Flair or Porter needs to run YOW-YKF.

Along with YOW-YHM/YXU/YQG in SW Ontario, but methinks PD needs more used DH4s and pilots beyond what they're already trying to attract for the E95s.

[RomanR27]

Does the 4.75M passenger number prediction for 2024 seem high on the surface? At first glance it seems high given the AC cutbacks we'll see this Winter, as well as F8 cutbacks next summer, even with Porter/WS filling the gaps. And of course between AC/LH we know that LHR/FRA won't be returning this summer.

I wonder if they have some good insight on just how much Porter will expand in 2024, as well as if there's any indications that DL and/or AA will try and re-open a station here. Hopefully they've gotten some good indication from AF that they'll be increasing capacity next summer as well, whether by upgauge or moving to daily (or both!)

[Coho]

Unfortunate that YOW-YYJ service on Flair is not returning next summer as I used it a few times this year. Way more convenient than connecting in either YVR or YYC (and significantly cheaper than AC or WS). At least there's connecting options on PD now via YYZ but still.. the non-stop will be missed by me.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by Coho

Unfortunate that YOW-YYJ service on Flair is not returning next summer as I used it a few times this year. Way more convenient than connecting in either YVR or YYC (and significantly cheaper than AC or WS). At least there's connecting options on PD now via YYZ but still.. the non-stop will be missed by me.

Given that you had multiple flight segments on the route, would you be able to share what the loads were like?

[fanofYOW]

Wow only YOW-YHZ next summer on Flair. I was expecting a decrease not a full blown YOW cut…

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by fanofYOW

Wow only YOW-YHZ next summer on Flair. I was expecting a decrease not a full blown YOW cut…

Weird they absolutely give away flights on YOW-YHZ though maybe they get last minute bookings. Meanwhile so many of their routes out of Toronto and others like Edmonton are so cheap that when you use Sky scanner for say Ottawa to LAX or Orlando it will suggest a self-transfer ticket with a $200 porter ticket to Toronto (for Orlando) or Edmonton (for LAX) and their $49 flight on flair (which is $40 in taxes).

[Coho]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Given that you had multiple flight segments on the route, would you be able to share what the loads were like?

I flew 4 segments in total (2 return trips), one in June and the other in July. June was maybe 60-70% full and July felt closer to 80%, in my unscientific opinion. The price and convenience were the main factor for me.

F8 was charging between $150-$250 each way on the route, whereas AC or WS wanted at least $600 from me each way and also involved a connection.

[OTSkyline]

I wonder if this is the beginning of the end for low-cost airlines in Canada.

For so long we've been wanting some to set-up here after seeing the successes of RyanAir and EasyJet in places like Europe. But again, the high taxes & fees, longer distances, smaller population density are all going against the model. I'm not sure the model can survive much longer.

I personally have never flown any of the canadian ones (Flair, Lynx, Swoop)... My parents did once, coming back from Florida but only because the price difference was significant and they are retired (so even if there was a delay or cancellation of a day or so, it would not have affected them as much).

[MountainView]

I had some spare time so I decided to check out Porter's early December schedule from/to YOW from their non-stop destinations.

Below is a snapshot of departing YOW on Dec 4 (Monday), and arriving YOW on Dec 7 (Thursday). It is sorted by YOW departure and YOW arrival times from the various destinations.

I'd be interested to hear anyone's observations on the current, as-is schedule. For me, it looks like arrivals from YEG, YQT, YFC, YTZ, and YVR can connect to the FLL and MCO flights, but not the same on the reverse. YEG can make both the BOS and EWR connections, but YVR only EWR. Again, the connections are not possible in reverse. I also feel like the YYG flight should be retimed better as O&D is likely to be very poor in the winter. Obviously, easier said than done though.

What do you all think/observe?

December 4:


December 7:


Disclaimer: I may have missed something, as some of this was manual.

[Dominion301]

Thanks @MountainView. So PD too have cut YHZ down to only 2 flights/day. There are no YOW-YHZ departures after 1230 this winter (reminds me of EWR a year ago being all in the morning only) out of YOW and only 3 DH4s in total. So anyone wanting an evening arrival into YHZ this winter will be forced to connect at YUL or backtrack to YYZ.

While Atlantic Canada demand falls off a cliff in winter, that is an astoundingly low level of capacity on YOW-YHZ. That's early 1980s capacity levels. For perspective, YFC + YQM + YYG combined with total half the population of Halifax will have more capacity out of YOW than to YHZ this winter. No evening connections really hurts PD YOW connections this winter.

The pendulum has swung from a ridiculously huge amount of capacity last winter between AC, PD, WO, WS & F8 to an insanely small amount this winter.

Today's departure count: 71

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

[Zmonkey]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Porter would make sense since they could run Q400s on it. Not sure the route would have the volume to support the Embraer or Max8 capacity.

YKF isn't even on Porters potential route list so don't think it will happen. They seem to be content with people heading to Pearson if you are close enough in the GTA.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by Dominion301

Thanks @MountainView. So PD too have cut YHZ down to only 2 flights/day. There are no YOW-YHZ departures after 1230 this winter (reminds me of EWR a year ago being all in the morning only) out of YOW and only 3 DH4s in total. So anyone wanting an evening arrival into YHZ this winter will be forced to connect at YUL or backtrack to YYZ.

While Atlantic Canada demand falls off a cliff in winter, that is an astoundingly low level of capacity on YOW-YHZ. That's early 1980s capacity levels. For perspective, YFC + YQM + YYG combined with total half the population of Halifax will have more capacity out of YOW than to YHZ this winter. No evening connections really hurts PD YOW connections this winter.

The pendulum has swung from a ridiculously huge amount of capacity last winter between AC, PD, WO, WS & F8 to an insanely small amount this winter.

Today's departure count: 71

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

I also thought not having an afternoon to YHZ was weird. On Saturday, there is a mid-afternoon from YOW. (2x YOW-YHZ on Sat and Sun, but 1x YHZ-YOW on Sat and 3x on Sun)

[RomanR27]

Looks like AC is dropping the Q400 just keeping the mainline A220 YOW-YHZ flight in October, and Jazz is back operating the flight once the winter schedule takes over at the end of October (rather than PAL).

[JakeLRS]

Flair will shutter YOW base effective Summer 2024

No layoffs.
Flight attendants will be able to move to a base of choosing.
Pilots will be offered to move to another base, Toronto base will allow pilots to commute from YOW/YUL.

Internal email suggests that they needed to move aircraft to GTA due to greater return.

[MountainView]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

Flair will shutter YOW base effective Summer 2024

No layoffs.
Flight attendants will be able to move to a base of choosing.
Pilots will be offered to move to another base, Toronto base will allow pilots to commute from YOW/YUL.

Internal email suggests that they needed to move aircraft to GTA due to greater return.

I wonder if Lynx would consider flying YYC/YVR-YOW for at least the summer season. Decent amount of O&D on those routes during the summer. Although opening a station is expensive and might not be worth it for just summer flights.

Obviously Porter will be on YYC next summer if AC doesn't reinstate the route after the winter.

[Dominion301]

Originally Posted by RomanR27

Looks like AC is dropping the Q400 just keeping the mainline A220 YOW-YHZ flight in October, and Jazz is back operating the flight once the winter schedule takes over at the end of October (rather than PAL).

I think it's evident why the one route F8 are keeping next summer is YOW-YHZ. Capacity has been cut to the bone. Even for F8 that'll be a cut of 3x weekly.

It'll be interesting to see in the coming months how much more capacity PD add at YOW beyond the obvious YYC & YWG routes. YYT would make a heck of a lot of sense for connections as would a second daily YVR and at least one YHZ turn a day on a jet.

Today's departure count: 75

Today's cancellation count (so far): 0

[Dominion301]

Today's departure count: 77
Today's cancellation count (so far): 1