LRT Stage 3

[OTownandDown]

This is correct. The system isn't very useful until Phase 3 is fully built out. And by 'useful' I mean, getting public servants living in reasonably priced ticky-tack to their downtown offices without having to pay $250 for monthly parking.

I do live near a station, and I will take the train for the specific purposes of:
1. Going to the Rideau Centre twice a year.
2. Canada Day.
3. Bluesfest.

Granted, I don't work downtown, otherwise I would also take the train every day.

I choose to walk to the station, 20 minutes each direction, rather than wait 45 minutes each way for my late connecting bus that invariably does not have its GPS turned on.

Originally Posted by DirectionNorth

Stage 1 is physically located in the urban core. It doesn't serve urban travel patterns, but rather is designed to get people from their suburban transfer station to their office job in downtown.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by originalmuffins

That's laughable, considering LRT is primarily only in the core at the moment. These further stages expand it so that people wherever they are in the city can access wherever they want to go within Ottawa without relying on a car.

It is in the core, but it doesn't serve the core very well at all. Core communities still rely on buses, too many of which are short, almost none of which have any transit priority measures anywhere on the urban parts of their route, which connect very badly to the LRT stations, and which lack frequency and reliability.

But because those bus routes only serve urban residents, this city doesn't care.

[Spoonsy]

"Dire financial straits for OC Transpo could spell the end for Stage 3 LRT"
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/dire-financial...-spell-the-end-for-stage-3-lrt-1.6566674

Originally Posted by CTV News

Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe says OC Transpo is facing a "worsening financial situation" that is worse than he imagined when he decided to run for mayor.

Sutcliffe ran on a platform of fixing public transit in Ottawa, after numerous issues on the LRT and flagging ridership because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

City councillors received a technical briefing on the transit system's long-term plan on Monday, which projected a dire outlook of $6.6 billion in budgetary pressures over the next 25 years, more than half of which is linked to lower ridership.

It also means the future of Stage 3 of LRT to Kanata, Barrhaven and Stittsville could be in jeopardy, though Sutcliffe says he believes it will eventually be built.

Councillors heard that the financial case for Stage 3 is not strong. First, it is unaffordable for the city, and would need to be funded 100 per cent by senior levels of government, who have not committed any funding to it. Second, Stage 3 would cost an estimated $64 million per year to operate, with only an expected 2 per cent increase in ridership, bringing in around $5 million annually. Savings from replacing bus routes would also be minimal, staff said.

Construction on Stage 3 was set to begin once Stage 2—which is delayed—was complete, but staff said Monday that the city could delay Stage 3 until the financial situation stabilizes, only build parts of it—such as only connecting to Kanata or only to Barrhaven—or scrap it all together and run bus rapid transit instead.

Speaking to reporters after the technical briefing, Sutcliffe said Stage 3 remains an important part of the city's long-term transit plan.

"I still believe that we can deliver Phase 3 to the residents of Barrhaven, Stittsville and Kanata. I think it's an important part of the system and our population is going to grow significantly over the next 25 years. We know that," Sutcliffe said. "We're not ready to push the button on Phase 3 this week anyway. We have a lot of work to do before we get to a point about making a decision about Phase 3, so we have to do that work and we have to have those important conversations with other levels of government because we were always counting on those other levels of government to pay the cost of Phase 3 anyway."

Sutcliffe said that Stage 3 might be unaffordable now, but there are numerous decisions the city can make in the next 10 years to improve OC Transpo's long-term finances.

"I don't think it's one conversation that's going to happen and we make a bunch of decisions and then we're done," he said. "I think the job we have in front of us has not actually changed that much… We have to fix Phase 1 of light rail; we have to make sure Phase 2 is introduced smoothly and effectively and that it's working; we have to improve our bus system so that it's serving residents in the areas where they need it and not where they don't; we have to make difficult decisions about how we pay for public transit… All of the decisions we make over the next 10 years will change the picture for the next 25 years."

Sutcliffe said he is confident the 2024 budget would still cap the transit levy increase at 2.5 per cent and he's looking at solutions that don't include increasing it.

Mayor calls for more government support

Sutcliffe renewed calls for support from the federal and provincial governments.

OC Transpo's 2023 budget included a $39-million hole that staff expected would be filled by upper levels of government, as it had in previous years during the COVID-19 pandemic, but no extra funding was announced in the federal and provincial budgets for this year.

Speaking to reporters, Sutcliffe said Ottawa should be recognized as a unique case for extra help.

"I think Ottawa is justified in asking for help because of the unique circumstances of being the nation's capital," Sutcliffe said.

"Federal government decisions have had an impact on transit ridership in Ottawa and, frankly, the future of downtown. We have a federal government that is talking about moving out of many of its downtown buildings, which is going to present a significant challenge for us as a community... I respect those decisions, those are their decisions to make, but there are consequences at the municipal level.

"Similarly, I would say we have a conversation that we're having with the provincial government because we don't get the same deal as Toronto and other cities in the GTA when it comes to funding transit operations and maintenance and life cycle. The provincial government pays for a lot more of that in other municipalities than it does in Ottawa and that's got to change in the future."

Premier Doug Ford has previously said he would not commit any provincial funding to Stage 3 of LRT until the issues with Stage 1 are sorted.

Transit Long Range Financial Plan Update:
https://www.scribd.com/document/672054826/Transit-Long-Range-Financial-Plan-Update#


https://i.imgur.com/DiKu7Qx.jpg

[Truenorth00]

Stage 3 is dead unless other governments come forward. Highly unlikely they'll do it for so few votes.

[613Steve]

Stage 3 dying is mostly ok. It was always absurd that we were going to spend several billions of dollars to replace a BRT with elevated LRT to Barrhaven. What kind of cost-benefit ratio does that offer?

[Southpaw78]

Could someone provide insight as to the decision made not to at least extend the LRT one station to reach Kanata at Eagleson?? Instead they went to the extremities East and South - saving on these could have at least brought it that far.

I believe I saw someone post about this somewhere, but I would have no idea where to find it...

[Dengler Avenue]

Indeed, I’ve thought that bringing it to Centrum would be nice.

[SL123]

Originally Posted by Southpaw78

Could someone provide insight as to the decision made not to at least extend the LRT one station to reach Kanata at Eagleson?? Instead they went to the extremities East and South - saving on these could have at least brought it that far.

I believe I saw someone post about this somewhere, but I would have no idea where to find it...

Fun fact: Once stage 2 opens there will be exactly 13 stations East and 13 stations West of Parliament station on the Trim-Moodie line. Dont know if this has anything to do with them deciding not to go one more station to reach Eagleson tho.

[AuxTown]

Originally Posted by SL123

Fun fact: Once stage 2 opens there will be exactly 13 stations East and 13 stations West of Parliament station on the Trim-Moodie line. Dont know if this has anything to do with them deciding not to go one more station to reach Eagleson tho.

Probably could have skipped the two stations 900m apart at Pinecrest/Queensview and sent one or two more out West!

[J.OT13]

I don't know why they made the strange decision of extending to Trim from Place d'Orleans instead of Eagleson. Seems bring it one more station west (considering they were building the Moodie Yard anyway) would have been a huge political win.

The South I get because it's half developer funded, though the idiots are rewarding their own investment with retail parking lots. Again though, if you're extending to Riverside South "Town Centre", they could have cut Bowesville to help fund an Eagleson extension, or Jasmine Station. Anything that would provide actual ridershp.

Although Stage 3's business case was always dubious, even more so now, I still think extending to Terry Fox, maybe Palladium if Claridge offers-up a contribution. A few of the station between can be infill instead of built from day 1. I'd do the same for Barrhaven, get it to Fallowfield at least since the grade separation needs to be done (10 years after the incident).

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by Southpaw78

Could someone provide insight as to the decision made not to at least extend the LRT one station to reach Kanata at Eagleson?? Instead they went to the extremities East and South - saving on these could have at least brought it that far.

I believe I saw someone post about this somewhere, but I would have no idea where to find it...

It was supposed to end at Bayshore, but they then discovered that it was cheaper to extend it to Moodie than it was to end at Bayshore, since the land was cheaper (they needed extra land to build the layover bays for the buses). They used the excuse that it would then serve DND, which is ridiculous, as either way a bus transfer is needed.

The extension to Trim was paid 50/50 by the provincial and federal government (in part as compensation for offloading the 174 to the city). The extension from Bowesville to Limebank was paid for by the province and two property developers.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by SL123

Fun fact: Once stage 2 opens there will be exactly 13 stations East and 13 stations West of Parliament station on the Trim-Moodie line. Dont know if this has anything to do with them deciding not to go one more station to reach Eagleson tho.

It may be a fun fact, but it's not that useful. Drawing a straight line (yes I know neither route is straight), Trim Station will be about 20km from Parliament Station, and Moodie Station is only about 15 km, where as Terry Fox Station is about 20 km.

Given that the Environment Assessment estimated the leg from Moodie to Terry Fox to cost $710 million, (which was the cheapest of all the legs per km), I feel that it should be the top priority for Stage 3.

[roger1818]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I don't know why they made the strange decision of extending to Trim from Place d'Orleans instead of Eagleson. Seems bring it one more station west (considering they were building the Moodie Yard anyway) would have been a huge political win.

At the time the decision was made, the location of the western MSF hadn't been decided. Also, the Liberals were in power provincially, and I assume they were more concerned about the east. Also, as I mentioned earlier, there is the issue of the 174.

Originally Posted by J.OT13

The South I get because it's half developer funded, though the idiots are rewarding their own investment with retail parking lots. Again though, if you're extending to Riverside South "Town Centre", they could have cut Bowesville to help fund an Eagleson extension, or Jasmine Station. Anything that would provide actual ridershp.

The city was more concerned about developer fees than ridership, especially captive ridership that will be taking the transitregardless.

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Although Stage 3's business case was always dubious, even more so now, I still think extending to Terry Fox, maybe Palladium if Claridge offers-up a contribution. A few of the station between can be infill instead of built from day 1.

I am really not convinced about extending beyond Terry Fox. You really start to see the law of diminishing returns in effect as you have passed the vast majority of the population. Yes Stittsville is growing like crazy with a lot of higher density, the train wont get to that new, higher density housing, so a bus transfer will be required regardless, so why not have the bus continue to Kanata, where most of the buses at Moodie will be going to/from. I would rather see them go back to the original plan of building a busway west of Terry Fox

Originally Posted by J.OT13

I'd do the same for Barrhaven, get it to Fallowfield at least since the grade separation needs to be done (10 years after the incident).

The grade separation is the one good argument about Fallowfield extension, though the cost of detouring arrowed the 500m of homes between Knoxdale and Hunt Club is blowing the costs through the roof. By stopping at Fallowfield we will also end up with a situation similar to Moodie where the MSF will be past the station.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by roger1818

At the time the decision was made, the location of the western MSF hadn't been decided. Also, the Liberals were in power provincially, and I assume they were more concerned about the east. Also, as I mentioned earlier, there is the issue of the 174.

Yeah, you're right, it did extend to Trim before Moodie. Timeline in my head was off. Lost opportunity.

The city was more concerned about developer fees than ridership, especially captive ridership that will be taking the transitregardless.

True. That explain the lack of improvements along urban routes and the City's willingness to take away the train service to Carleton for 3.5+ years.

I am really not convinced about extending beyond Terry Fox. You really start to see the law of diminishing returns in effect as you have passed the vast majority of the population. Yes Stittsville is growing like crazy with a lot of higher density, the train wont get to that new, higher density housing, so a bus transfer will be required regardless, so why not have the bus continue to Kanata, where most of the buses at Moodie will be going to/from. I would rather see them go back to the original plan of building a busway west of Terry Fox

It really depends what's proposed for the Corel Centre site. The City should wait to see what Claridge comes up with, and if they are willing to chip in. Don't want to spend hundreds of Millions, or Billions, again without a guarantee that we will see significant density.

I would not extend past Palladium. Stittville residents will have to take a bus to the train anyway. Dosen't matter if they take it to Hazeldean or Palladium (though Terry Fox or Eagleson could negatively impact time travel).

[The grade separation is the one good argument about Fallowfield extension, though the cost of detouring arrowed the 500m of homes between Knoxdale and Hunt Club is blowing the costs through the roof. By stopping at Fallowfield we will also end up with a situation similar to Moodie where the MSF will be past the station.

Depending on the timing of HXR, and if it goes through (not canceled by Skippy), the Feds might pick-up the tab for the grade separation.

As for the detour to avoid those homes, the City is really messing that-up. Renoviction is already ongoing. There's no "affordable housing" to save at this point. City should expropriate now, regardless of Stage 3.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by AuxTown

Probably could have skipped the two stations 900m apart at Pinecrest/Queensview and sent one or two more out West!

And east too stations are squished together without good catchment areas. One long station further west would cost little compared to what they save in bus operating costs.

Stage 3 was always dead barring a throwing money around orgy that was maybe in the cards briefly but whos moment has passed. It was political to get voters/councillors on board for phase 2. They even said we can't delay the vote for one month on phase 2 as the real people who will suffer are rural wards who will have to wait longer for phase 3.

[OTownandDown]

So a system designed to 'eventually' get public servants to downtown from their suburban homes was derailed by the rollout, which made it 1000x more difficult to commute downtown, followed by COVID, followed by the Feds deciding to offload half their real-estate.

I'm going to point back to Uhuniau like 10 years ago. We should have focused high-capacity transit to high-density parts of the City to start, spending more to build a tunnel through the Montreal Road corridor and down Bank (whilst keeping the transitway operational), rather than building high-capacity regional rail to our low-density suburbs. Kanata Centrum is not Scarborough Town Centre.

Just put the express system back in place for Orleans, Kanata and Barfhaven, price it 30% cheaper than a monthly parking spot downtown, and make sure to SKIP the LRT transfer, and you'll get more riders. It's a simple solution.

[J.OT13]

If the O-Train worked as intended, and the City didn't cut (and further cutting) bus and rail service, the transfers wouldn't be that bad. Once Stage 2 opens, it will be even better. Slightly longer travel times, at least in the AM, but far less crowded. Again, if we restore good service.

But yeah, we should have focused on new service instead of "upgrading" an existing, functional service. Maybe we should have gone to Blair or Orleans via Rideau-Montreal instead of converting the Transitway.

[huntclub]

As someone who grew up in Kanata taking 3-4 buses just to get Downtown, it would be a big mistake to not at least extend it to eaglesson. The park and rides are always packed and so are the buses.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by huntclub

As someone who grew up in Kanata taking 3-4 buses just to get Downtown, it would be a big mistake to not at least extend it to eaglesson. The park and rides are always packed and so are the buses.

100% agree. At the very least, Eagleson. Having people transfer on a bus for one stop is ludicrous. Same with Barrahven, should at least be Fallowfield.

I'd still like to see Kanata Town Centre, where they would meet density targets. Could argue the same for Standheard.

Any other extension should be when density targets are met.

[eltodesukane]

Originally Posted by huntclub

As someone who grew up in Kanata taking 3-4 buses just to get Downtown, it would be a big mistake to not at least extend it to eaglesson. The park and rides are always packed and so are the buses.

Make sense!