What happens when Mark Sutcliffe's Queen Elizabeth Drive data gets driven too far?
Ottawa's mayor repeatedly touts the importance of making data-informed decisions. He shouldn't mislead the public with bad data on the QED debate
Bruce Deachman, Ottawa Citizen
Published Aug 28, 2023 • Last updated 4 hours ago • 4 minute read
The NCC will soon reopen Queen Elizabeth Drive to motor traffic on weekdays, a move that should temporarily cool the heated debate that Ottawans have been engaged in over the inconvenience/opportunity (choose one) that the road closure has caused/provided (again, pick one).
The NCC’s Active Use Program has reserved the 2.4-km stretch of QED between Somerset Street West and Fifth Avenue for pedestrians, runners, cyclists, skateboarders and the like from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., seven days a week, since July 1. After Labour Day and until Thanksgiving, motorized vehicles will continue to be prohibited during those hours on weekends and holiday Mondays only. After that, and presumably till next May, it’ll be back to cars 24/7. And then, well, hopefully the NCC and city will have collected and analyzed enough data on the program to decide whether or not it should continue next year.
Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe and NCC boss Tobi Nussbaum have locked horns over the issue, including in competing op-eds in this paper. More recently, in a video posted a couple of weeks ago on social media, the mayor urged the NCC to at least reopen the 0.9-km portion of QED running through the Glebe, from Pretoria to Fifth. In support of his argument, Sutcliffe noted that during the video’s two-and-a-half minutes — it was recorded on a cloudy weekday afternoon when the probability of precipitation was forecast at 90 per cent — no cyclists or pedestrians had passed by him.
For a mayor who has repeatedly touted the importance of making data-informed decisions, Sutcliffe’s 150-second analysis seemed ludicrous. If the entire Tour de France had, by chance, passed him then, would his opinion have changed? Or would he simply have waited until they were out of sight to reshoot the video?
More troubling, though, was the data Sutcliffe presented in an infographic at the end of the video. Actually, it wasn’t the “new information” itself that was concerning — that was just data, after all — but rather how he used it to further an argument and conclusion that it didn’t in itself really support. As Benjamin Disraeli/Mark Twain (choose, one, neither or both) said, there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. This falls into the third category.
In July 2019, according to Sutcliffe’s info, 3,144 cyclists used the QED pathway each day. In 2023, though, only 1,866 used the pathway and driveway, combined. By that metric, Sutcliffe’s contention that the QED’s closure wasn’t accomplishing what it intended made a lot of sense. If 40 per cent fewer active users were actually out there now than were four years ago, surely the path alone could accommodate them all, right?
Absolutely, if the data sets were large enough to give a broad picture, and if they represented similar conditions in 2019 and 2023.
But guess what? They didn’t.
First of all, the totals from both years are from just three days of data, hardly enough to claim that either fairly represents the month as a whole. As time frames go, in fact, they’re actually closer to 2-1/2 minutes than a full month. But at least they’re the same length as one another, right?
Oh, wait. Turns out they’re not.
The cycling data from this year shows the number of cyclists who used the path and road during the 12 hours each day that the QED was closed to cars. The data from 2019 counted all cyclists who used the pathway over the full 24 hours each day. Additionally, the 2019 numbers were collected using counters, just north of the Canal Ritz, that recognize the metal in bicycles, as well as in, according to the city, most large-wheeled strollers, wheelchairs, mobility scooters, skateboards and roller-bladers, all of which would be counted as cyclists. The 2023 numbers were collected using a camera near Linden Terrace.
This is probably not a good time to mention that there was also a typo in the city’s calculation Sutcliffe presented: the average number of daily cyclists using the path in 2019 was 3,114, not 3,144. I know, it’s hardly worth quibbling over 30 cyclists, and I wouldn’t normally. But, you know, statistics.
OK, OK, so the data set was small and collected at different locations using different methods. One set includes numbers that came from 72 hours of traffic, while the other only included half of that time frame. But everything else was apples-to-apples, right?
Well, no. Not the weather.
From July 23-25, 2019, when higher numbers better support Sutcliffe’s argument, Ottawans enjoyed three mighty fine days, according to Environment Canada. Temperatures ranged from 12 to 25C on two of those days, and 15 to 29C on the third. There was no rain. The Humidex only exceeded 27 once, on the third day, when it hit 32. Pretty good days to go cycling, I’d say.
Contrast that with July 25 to 27, 2023, when we saw rain on two of the days, slightly warmer temperatures on two (highs each day in the 26 to 28C range), and a Humidex that eclipsed 30 every day, including highs of 35 and 37. Maybe not so amenable to cycling.
There are certainly many points Sutcliffe can make to support his argument against closing the QED on weekdays. It is inconvenient, both to motorists and many nearby residents. And there is an adjacent path that people can use.
But for a so-called data-driven mayor to present statistics in the way he has is simply disingenuous/disingenuous (choose one).
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/local...driven-too-far
Prev
Linear Mode
