CHICAGO | Economic & Business Development

[sentinel]

Originally Posted by twister244

Super interesting chart - Thanks for sharing!

This just reinforces my long-time view of Chicago real estate. We don't go through the rapid rises coastal cities endure, but that also means we don't crash as hard as they do too. I much prefer that over a Denver/SanFran situation where people are getting priced out at a rapid pace.

Absolutely this, but another big factor is that there is a lot of land to build/grow in Chicago, especially for new construction, primarily because of the fact that non-CBD or adjacent land is a lot cheaper compared to other cities in the country like SF, Boston, Miami, NYC, Seattle, LA, etc., where vacant land is at a high premium.

[Chicagoguy]

United Airlines Buys Former Motorola Building in Arlington Heights for Ops Center

“United Airlines is expanding its network-operations facility in Arlington Heights, buying an office building that once was home to Motorola’s wireless-network equipment business.

United bought a 205,000-square-foot building at 1421 W. Shure Drive to provide more space for its network-operations centers, which moved out of the airline’s headquarters at Willis Tower last year after flooding knocked out power and caused it to evacuate flight dispatchers to a backup facility at its former headquarters in Elk Grove Village.

United soon bought a 200,000-square-foot building at 1501 W. Shure Drive from Guardian Realty, which acquired it from Torburn Partners in 2018 for $41 million. United did not say how much it paid for the building at 1421 W. Shure Drive.“

”Some jobs, such as dispatching aircraft and flight crews, can’t be done remotely. United has about 1,500 workers at its operations center in Arlington Heights, and it continues to hire. The new building will allow employees to have more space, as well as amenities such as a larger cafeteria, fitness facilities and more parking.”

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/comm...ing-ops-center

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Coastal Elitist

First time poster here. Just to back up what marothisu is saying, I graphed all of the S&P Case-Shiller Condo Price Indices (Chicago, Boston, NYC, LA, and SFO) using the St. Louis Federal Reserve's FRED website where the S&P data is updated monthly. I'm going to assume that the vast majority of condos are within the city limits in each market, so this is probably the best proxy we have for the housing market in each city proper.

Here are the results. The Y-axis is the percent change from a year before for each respective month. As you can see, Chicago is currently topping the "percent change from a year ago" statistic at 2.82%. Feel free to open up the link and play with the data yourselves.

Direct Link: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=17p18

Thanks. If you go to the "Max" of the graph you'll kind of see it too. Many other places are more boom and bust than here. I think that actually the property tax kind of protect that from happening as much here. The only thing is for awhile that the property prices in town may have been pretty stagnant or even decreasing. Definitely not anymore. I actually will never understand people who think that prices going up a ton like what has happened in Austin, Tampa, etc is a good thing. You want a certain level of price increase, but too much of it is actually going to completely fuck over some things in the long run if it goes on too long. If Chicago could actually maintain 2-4% average increases per year, it's much healthier ultimately.

[CaptainJilliams]

Agribusiness giant inks big lease at Marshall Field building

One of the world's largest food ingredient suppliers has leased a big new office at the redeveloped Marshall Field building in the Loop, a deal that more than doubles its workspace downtown and bucks the trend of space-shedding that is ailing the city's office sector.

Olam International has inked a 15-year lease for nearly 80,000 square feet at 24 E. Washington St., according to people familiar with the deal. The Singapore-based company becomes the largest tenant to date signed at the landmark property, dramatically expanding from the roughly 35,000 square feet it occupies today and is expected to leave behind at 200 W. Jackson Blvd.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/comm...PkKu3jqDPtw2Fg

[sixo1]

After acquiring Chicago-based Avionos, Hero Digital is relocating its headquarters from San Francisco to Chicago.

[marothisu]

Illinois just surpassed its peak employed resident numbers. And people still continue to believe the Census estimates that people are fleeing en masse even though they were extremely far off with their estimates and haven't changed methodology yet.

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/poli...pre-covid-peak

[SamInTheLoop]

^ The number of states that haven't surpassed pre covid peak must be very small, no? Would assume Illinois in the last batch.

There's no doubt that there has been enhanced migration out of Illinois the last few years, exacerbating the well-established pre-existing trend. Is the sky falling? No. Is the high level demographic trend good, or even decent? Also no.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop

^ The number of states that haven't surpassed pre covid peak must be very small, no? Would assume Illinois in the last batch.

There's no doubt that there has been enhanced migration out of Illinois the last few years, exacerbating the well-established pre-existing trend. Is the sky falling? No. Is the high level demographic trend good, or even decent? Also no.

Crain's had an article today about how the out migration has slowed greatly lately and is more similar to a few years pre pandemic. And that of course isn't net - there's a lot that goes into this but the fact that the Census uses this data and was still so far off shows there's a lot more going on. Anyone who still trusts those numbers in the face of what the actual 2020 Census showed us is fooling themselves.

As far as how many states are at their pre pandemic employed populations? I will take a look in a bit. The numbers reported in Crain's was also non farm payroll. But it's also not what Crains was reporting on. It was reporting on that Illinois has the most employed non farm employees ever in its history.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by SamInTheLoop

^ The number of states that haven't surpassed pre covid peak must be very small, no? Would assume Illinois in the last batch.

There's no doubt that there has been enhanced migration out of Illinois the last few years, exacerbating the well-established pre-existing trend. Is the sky falling? No. Is the high level demographic trend good, or even decent? Also no.

Well, there comes a point when the employment numbers have to actually match up with the number of residents.

Illinois does not have ghost employees. And neither are Illinois household demographics wildly divergent from the rest of the nation.

On top of that, there should be some education and household income benchmarks to see how the population has changed.

If the government stats are simultaneously proclaiming:

Bad news: Illinois is rapidly losing population!
Good news: Income and jobs keep increasing!

Then what the data is actually saying is that the population is probably flat or slowly growing, but there is tremendous churn

I’ll post some data from selected states to illustrate.

[galleyfox]

These are the total non farm and wages against CPI cost of living measure.




For Illinois, the two recessions bodyslammed the state, but the 2010’s were a definite economic recovery. Even COVID didn’t shake incomes.




Michigan might have slightly increased total population, but jobs have not returned to the 2000’s peak, and incomes have suffered.





New York did well coming out of the financial crisis, but they’ve had some pandemic challenges.




West Virginia is the poster child of decline.




Georgia has increased both total population and employment, but wages are lagging

The problem in the reporting on Illinois is that the media keeps trying to make a “Illinois is turning into a declining West Virginia” story.

When the trend is really moving toward a big wealthy slow-growing Minnesota economy.

[Handro]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

The problem in the reporting on Illinois is that the media keeps trying to make a “Illinois is turning into a declining West Virginia” story.

When the trend is really moving toward a big wealthy slow-growing Minnesota economy.

Anyone have a good clue as to why? Why does the media in Illinois/Chicago want Illinois/Chicago to fail, or at least give the perception that they are failing? What other city/states have such self-deprecating media coverage?

[marothisu]

From a Chicago perspective, it is interesting to look at. The current estimated population of Chicago is over 200K less than what it was in 2000. But the number of employed residents for some months this year has been more than various months in 2000. And other months, it's pretty much the same. The total labor force population is pretty much the same as 2000 too. Most months in 2023 have been only 1000 less than in 2000.

The difference comes in birth rates reducing, which is a case in the entire US. There were way fewer 227K people 19 and under in the city in 2020 vs. 2000. There's 112K more people who are 25+ in the city in 2020 than 2000. From an economic standpoint that is pretty important as that is household, money, etc growth. Of course, it's not great to see that reduction in a 19 and under population. I'd imagine most of the loss is in the south and west sides, though. I don't have a CA breakdown but there has to be a point where some of those areas realistically cannot lose much more of that segment of the population.

Originally Posted by Handro

Anyone have a good clue as to why? Why does the media in Illinois/Chicago want Illinois/Chicago to fail, or at least give the perception that they are failing? What other city/states have such self-deprecating media coverage?

I've had a foot in mouth comment/thought about the real estate people in Florida, Texas, etc. Or even some here wanting things to crash to scoop things up for lower prices and then get it to rise again. To me, it's pretty un American to hope that any American city fails. It's especially messed up when it's people who live here and also help spread lies or aren't consistent with their data (i.e. Wirepoints lately).

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by Handro

Anyone have a good clue as to why? Why does the media in Illinois/Chicago want Illinois/Chicago to fail, or at least give the perception that they are failing? What other city/states have such self-deprecating media coverage?

I would want to write something about declining media standards and rage clickbait pieces, but…

I think there’s evidence to suggest that Chicago simply popped out of the mud with that attitude from the start.

To describe Chicago, one would need all the superlatives set in a row. Grandest, flattest,—muddiest, dustiest,—hottest, coldest,—wettest, driest,—farthest north, south, east, and west from other places, consequently most central,—best harbor on Lake Michigan, worst harbor and smallest river any great commercial city ever lived on,—most elegant in architecture, meanest in hovel-propping,—wildest in speculation, solidest in value,—proudest in self-esteem, loudest in self-disparagement,—most lavish, most grasping,—most public-spirited in some things, blindest and darkest on some points of highest interest

Atlantic Monthly - 1858

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by marothisu

The difference comes in birth rates reducing, which is a case in the entire US. There were way fewer 227K people 19 and under in the city in 2020 vs. 2000. There's 112K more people who are 25+ in the city in 2020 than 2000. From an economic standpoint that is pretty important as that is household, money, etc growth. Of course, it's not great to see that reduction in a 19 and under population. I'd imagine most of the loss is in the south and west sides, though. I don't have a CA breakdown but there has to be a point where some of those areas realistically cannot lose much more of that segment of the population.

I completely forget the source, but I do have Chicago’s TFR demographic data on hand

For household sizes, Chicago was estimated to have 2.32 as of 2021, and going far below 2.00 seems unrealistic for a large city in the near future.

So, theoretically another 15% population loss in the cards due to fertility rates. But the big sudden reductions like in the 20th century are probably done.

[marothisu]

Sometime I'll look at it by CA but it is pretty interesting. We have a kid between 1 and 2 and day care was a shit show on the north side. Most places you have to put your name in before the kid is even born to have a chance. Some people put in when they find out they're pregnant. The first place we put on a wait list, we did it while my wife was still pregnant and we'd JUST be getting in next month. We ended up winning a lottery for a well known school but they barely had any openings. We see a LOT of young kids under 2 or 3 years old around the parks in our area of Lincoln Park. We also met a large handful of families with kids move here recently from NYC or SF around here through my wife's Chinese Lincoln Park network. I'm not sure if this population is increasing in some areas or it's just that I never paid attention to this stuff before.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by marothisu

Sometime I'll look at it by CA but it is pretty interesting. We have a kid between 1 and 2 and day care was a shit show on the north side. Most places you have to put your name in before the kid is even born to have a chance. Some people put in when they find out they're pregnant. The first place we put on a wait list, we did it while my wife was still pregnant and we'd JUST be getting in next month. We ended up winning a lottery for a well known school but they barely had any openings. We see a LOT of young kids under 2 or 3 years old around the parks in our area of Lincoln Park. We also met a large handful of families with kids move here recently from NYC or SF around here through my wife's Chinese Lincoln Park network. I'm not sure if this population is increasing in some areas or it's just that I never paid attention to this stuff before.

Oh dear, I’ve let my parents know to prepare to run the daycare of “Grandma and Grandpa” when the time comes. Also I WFH from home full time, so daycare arrangements aren’t a source of anxiety for me.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by galleyfox

Oh dear, I’ve let my parents know to prepare to run the daycare of “Grandma and Grandpa” when the time comes. Also I WFH from home full time, so daycare arrangements aren’t a source of anxiety for me.

Lucky! That's great. Day care is very expensive at least up here. My MIL stayed with us for 7 or 8 months, but she had to return overseas in late winter. Great way to save money for sure. I've actually noticed through permitting, new licenses, etc there's quite a few new day cares to open lately. Maybe a good sign....a waning birth rate is not good in the long run for any place.

[Steely Dan]

Daycare hell sucks.

My condolences to the wallet of anyone stuck in it.

Especially if you're in the extra-special "double damage" circle of it, as we were several years ago.

[marothisu]

Originally Posted by Steely Dan

Daycare hell sucks.

My condolences to the wallet of anyone stuck in it.

Especially if you're in the extra-special "double damage" circle of it, as we were several years ago.

You mean when they shut down for a few days/week or your kid gets a fever and they can't return until they're 24 hours fever free without medicine? We had a nanny for a few months and then day care comes around and we're like "oh hey we can save over $1000/mo now. Nice". One day he got sick for 3-4 days and boom. My company allows for last minute day care but only a certain amount per year.

[marothisu]

I consumed the 2023 INC 5000 by city, metro, etc. Their page has a number of errors that I had to correct, but still a small percentage of the 5000 overall. The INC 5000 is the 5000 fastest growing companies in America. Here's the number by city proper:

1. NYC: 212 companies
2. Chicago: 118
3. Atlanta: 111
4. Austin: 107
5. Dallas: 82
6. Los Angeles: 80
7. San Francisco: 70
8T. Houston: 63
8T. Miami: 63
10. San Diego: 52
11. Denver: 50
12. Boston: 43
13. Tampa: 41
14. Phoenix: 38
15. Scottsdale, AZ: 36
16T. Charlotte: 34
16T. Irvine, CA: 34
18. Washington DC: 33
19. Seattle: 29
20. Arlington, VA: 28
21. Omaha: 27
22T. Minneapolis: 26
22T. Nashville: 26
24T. Indianapolis: 25
24T. Raleigh, NC: 25
26T. Plano, TX: 24
26T. Reston, VA: 24
28. Portland: 23
29T. Alpharetta, GA: 22
29T. Boca Raton, FL: 22
29T. Las Vegas: 22
29T. Orlando: 22
33T. Huntsville, AL: 21
33T. McLean, VA: 21
35. Chattanooga, TN: 20
36T. Clearwater, FL: 19
36T. Lehi, UT: 19
36T. Philadelphia: 19
36T. San Antonio: 19
40T. Fort Lauderdale, FL: 18
40T. Grand Rapids, MI: 18
40T. Irving, TX: 18
40T. Richmond, VA: 18
40T. San Jose: 18
45T. Cincinnati: 17
45T. Columbus, OH: 17
45T. Jacksonville: 17
45T. St. Louis: 17
45T. Wilmington, DE: 17
45T. Vienna, VA: 17