DENVER | Main Development Thread #7

[jhwk]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Do architecture schools actually teach that? I assume it was just an output in SketchUp. Enter square footage, height, lot dimension… next prompt enter the design budget (which determines if you get the 5-second output or the 10-second output, which requires 2 GB of extra RAM minimum)… and hit “Go.” Out spits a multicolored residential monstrosity. Architect paid. The rest of architecture is plumbing and heating.

I think education is a minor component. The bigger driver of the neo-constructivist trend we see today is a result of planners and design guidelines that require “breaking up the massing”, too many mandatory setbacks, and better (more expensive) designs having little positive impact on the developer’s bottom lines.

Fortunately architectural trends are cyclical and we are due for a conterreaction soon. Some of Denver’s better multifamily architects (SAR and JNS stand out to me) are heading in that direction already.

There is an education competent to the problem in that the rigid doctrine of modernism is still taught uncritically in architecture school. Not this particular style, but rather that architecture requires the rejection of precedent and the concept that every building has to be a unique experiment and be built from first principles. Le Corbusier was taught as a master in my architecture classes when the general consensus outside of architecture is that his ideas were highly destructive to urban spaces.

The worst part of architecture school is that it is very abstracted from practice. It trains you to think you will actually be designing grandiose buildings that make an impact on your community. When you get out of school you actually detail toilet partitions 50 hours a week for $45k a year until you claw your way up the ranks, after which you spend most of your time managing your subconsultants and fighting the GC when they build it wrong.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by jhwk

The worst part of architecture school is that it is very abstracted from practice. It trains you to think you will actually be designing grandiose buildings that make an impact on your community. When you get out of school you actually detail toilet partitions 50 hours a week for $45k a year until you claw your way up the ranks, after which you spend most of your time managing your subconsultants and fighting the GC when they build it wrong.

Ha. The engineering equivalent is thinking you'll be designing glorious transit systems - a paid and professionalized version of oh-so-many bar napkins drawn over the years. Reality is detailing pipe flanges (and getting shit on by lawyers) for $43k a year.

[mhays]

A lot of new architects should work for contractors instead. The typical project engineer (different meaning) probably starts at $80k these days.

jhwk, very insightful post.

[TakeFive]

I'd agree!

Originally Posted by mhays

jhwk, very insightful post.

Speaking of interesting career paths

Originally Posted by bunt_q

Ha. The engineering equivalent is thinking you'll be designing glorious transit systems - a paid and professionalized version of oh-so-many bar napkins drawn over the years. Reality is detailing pipe flanges (and getting shit on by lawyers) for $43k a year.

Consider Jurisprudence; this Federal Judge takes crazy to a whole other level. I also happen to be familiar with ADF which I assume Denver is now. FWIW (not much), I happen to drive by their suburban Scottsdale office once.

With respect to new apartments

I read on Biznow that (most) developers are focusing on projects under construction but because of interest rates etc won't look to start new projects until 2024. Who knows what 2024 will look like?

[laniroj]

Originally Posted by mhays

A lot of new architects should work for contractors instead. The typical project engineer (different meaning) probably starts at $80k these days.

jhwk, very insightful post.

That project engineer also doesn't have $100k of student loan debt from getting that archy degree and has a 4-5 year head start ($250k of earnings)! That will change as construction slows. Feast or famine in that world; some of those jobs will eventually be shed and the labor rates will self correct - unless millennials and gen z just never work with their hands and inherit gobs of money from their boomer/gen x rents.

[mhays]

Construction is chronically understaffed, in both the office and field. It seems like one of the safer sectors in any downturn. Maybe less so for concrete specialists, since new construction fluctuates more than renovations and TIs.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by mhays

Construction is chronically understaffed, in both the office and field. It seems like one of the safer sectors in any downturn. Maybe less so for concrete specialists, since new construction fluctuates more than renovations and TIs.

"I feel the earth move under my feet"

• Apparently the post-COVID rush for Life Science space is quickly evaporating
• Warehousing is no longer hot but Okay due to increased demand for data storage
• Office demand is in the tank
• Hotel demand is spotty at best

Demand for apartments is harder to read going forward.

Equity Res has hopes for Seattle.

Equity Residential President and CEO Mark Parrell said. “In places like Seattle, we are hopeful that the return-to-office mandates by employers like Amazon will drive incremental demand back into the urban areas of the city as commute times become intolerable for workers who dispersed far outside the city...

Concrete should enjoy the surge in road and bridge spending I'd think.

[mhays]

Some sectors are overbuilt, clearly. But public spending is surging thanks to new infrastructure dollars.

[BG918]

Originally Posted by mhays

A lot of new architects should work for contractors instead. The typical project engineer (different meaning) probably starts at $80k these days.

jhwk, very insightful post.

Ha that's exactly what I did. Received my architecture degree but went to work as a construction project engineer. I was making nearly double what my architecture buddies were making and learning a lot more about how buildings are actually constructed. I am now on the development side telling architects what I want them to draw

[TakeFive]

Always a Big Fan of Infrastructure

Originally Posted by mhays

Some sectors are overbuilt, clearly. But public spending is surging thanks to new infrastructure dollars.

Believe it or not a lot of this money will be dependent on who wins the 2024 elections.

Conservatives would love to take a hatchet to Amtrak's big buckets. I think much of the iija's money for transit is being spent already. RTD has been eliminating deferred maintenance system wide but especially along the light rail lines. CDOT has started one major project and indeed will be kept busy on two major freeway projects for a few years.

With respect to the CHIPS and Science act most of that money will be a suburban event. With respect to IRA money that will also be cut back if Republicans win in 2024.

I think my primary point is that infrastructure money won't benefit urban centers for the most part.


Well Done

Originally Posted by BG918

Ha that's exactly what I did. Received my architecture degree but went to work as a construction project engineer. I was making nearly double what my architecture buddies were making and learning a lot more about how buildings are actually constructed. I am now on the development side telling architects what I want them to draw

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

Concrete should enjoy the surge in road and bridge spending I'd think.

Not so much in blue states.

Originally Posted by TakeFive

I think my primary point is that infrastructure money won't benefit urban centers for the most part.

I would mostly agree with this. Mainly because urban areas can't, for the most part, figure out what infrastructure means to them. Our transit ambitions are (necessarily) modest in most urban cores. And bike lanes don't need IIJA-type money. Road diets and trying desperately to figure out how to fund increased (or restoring what we had) transit operations isn't what major capital spending programs are designed for.

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by TakeFive

CDOT has started one major project and indeed will be kept busy on two major freeway projects for a few years.

Note that this project was quietly carved out (or rather, deemed green enough) when CDOT implemented its new greenhouse gas rules a few years back. That (and politics) is why this one is moving ahead when no other road projects to speak of are.

[mhays]

I agree that urban centers won't get as much as rural areas, particularly expensive ones.

Chip plants go to cheaper locales than ours.

A lot of money will go to rural-heavy stuff like green power generation and transmission, high-speed internet, roads, and rails.

That said, a lot of money will flow to urban areas too.

[AHS1983]

Can someone please identify the building being demolished? It was across the street from Trinity United Methodist at 18th and Broadway.

Thank you!

(My dad took these pics and I recently scanned them in)

https://i.imgur.com/bCCHM1c.jpg

[bunt_q]

Originally Posted by AHS1983

Can someone please identify the building being demolished? It was across the street from Trinity United Methodist at 18th and Broadway.

Thank you!

(My dad took these pics and I recently scanned them in)

https://i.imgur.com/bCCHM1c.jpg

That's the Cosmopolitan Hotel demo.

Want to take bets how much Denver would pay to have that sitting around today for homeless housing?

[AHS1983]

I've run across some interesting Denver webcams on YouTube that I'd like to share.

16th Street Mall renovation:

https://www.youtube.com/@forsight8378

View of downtown from the Elevate building at 4100 E Mississippi.

https://www.youtube.com/live/Fq68_K0YlIA

(currently having technical problems but due for a fix very soon)

[AHS1983]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

That's the Cosmopolitan Hotel demo.

Thanks! I knew someone here would know.

Of course there's a video on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kku-0jzFEbo

Want to take bets how much Denver would pay to have that sitting around today for homeless housing?

Lots and lots more.

[TakeFive]

Originally Posted by bunt_q

I would mostly agree with this. Mainly because urban areas can't, for the most part, figure out what infrastructure means to them. Our transit ambitions are (necessarily) modest in most urban cores. And bike lanes don't need IIJA-type money. Road diets and trying desperately to figure out how to fund increased (or restoring what we had) transit operations isn't what major capital spending programs are designed for.

I was able to find some stuff.

One item, while mostly jibberish to me appears to be some DCC/DOTI applications for Elevate Denver Bond projects which voters approved in 2017. I had guessed that given the inflation of costs that this might come in handy for helping with these projects.

This was already in the news but it reminds how beneficial the iija is for Denver.

https://www.cdfa.net/cdfa/cdfaweb.nsf/0/D6E83E923A2578178825882B004A38E0/$file/Bond%20Buyer-New%20P3s%20on%20tap%20in%20Denver%20.pdf

Denver may be the first to benefit from the new federal funding, which will advance a long-planned ecosystem restoration of a section of the South Platte River, including a section that runs through downtown Denver. The IIJA provided $350 million in federal funding for the Urban Waterways project, which has been in the planning stages for 10 years.

I also found RTD's "Transit Corridor Funding Matrix" of fine print listed projects but we already know about this stuff.

Add This to the Pile: Denver to Receive Grant Funding for Safer Streets

[TakeFive]

Kiss of Death?

Originally Posted by mhays

I agree that urban centers won't get as much as rural areas, particularly expensive ones.

That said, a lot of money will flow to urban areas too.

So Seattle is rated 2nd for tech talent (CBRE 2023) to only San Francisco.

Seattle is rated 3rd in number of homeless people (May 2023).

But if this is San Francisco, can Seattle be far behind?

Hundreds of government employees in San Francisco told to work from home due to the high levels of crime in the area
August 12, 2023 By Jyoti Mann

Hundreds of employees at the Department of Health and Human Services in San Francisco have been told to work from home due to the high level of crime in the area around its office, the San Francisco Chronicle reported.

The department recommended that employees worked remotely "for the foreseeable future," the report says, citing an August 4 memo sent to staff, a copy of which the Chronicle said it had obtained.

I also happened to find this 'breaking news'. Quite hilarious.

Seattle cop says ‘criminals are running this city’ in brutal resignation letter
Aug 9, 2023 by BY Jason Rantz

Lieutenant Jessica Taylor served in the Seattle Police Department for the last 23 years. But she called it quits Aug. 1.

“Chief Diaz, let me tell you, the state of the Seattle Police Department and this city is a disgrace,” ... “The toxic mix of the Seattle City Council’s absurdity, the spinelessness of the Mayor, the leniency of the prosecutor’s office, and your failed leadership has accelerated this city’s downhill slide straight to rock bottom. The problems were already brewing before you came on the scene, but since your arrival, it’s been a free fall into anarchy & chaos.”

Welcome to the Emerald City

[Brainpathology]

Originally Posted by jhwk

The worst part of architecture school is that it is very abstracted from practice. It trains you to think you will actually be designing grandiose buildings that make an impact on your community. When you get out of school you actually detail toilet partitions 50 hours a week for $45k a year until you claw your way up the ranks, after which you spend most of your time managing your subconsultants and fighting the GC when they build it wrong.

Maybe if you pay literally no attention to what's going on around you in the first 2 months of school. The most important thing Architecture school taught me was to leave and finish med school. And that an arch adjacent medical specialty like pathology would make me happy.

It was obvious after maybe a week (and really I should have seen this BEFORE school) that talent was secondary to politics and the ability to make connections, schmooze, etc to get the chance to build visionary and important things. I could look around the room and honestly say yeah I could keep up with these people in design and the technical aspects of architecture... but could I kiss ass and work a room or meeting as well as all of them (because in any one clase you'd have to be the VERY best at that to even have a chance and doing that).. Nope.