Calgary International Airport II - Page 265

Cage · #**5281** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 5:42 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

And as for Air Canada... "once we evaluate the market?" So they haven't been evaluating the market at their fourth largest hub? What does that even mean? They've been adding international routes from other hubs but for some reason they haven't considered additional routes from YYC because they've forgotten to evaluate the market? Oops! Forgot about that one! Just another blanket statement to cover the fact they haven't done anything here recently.

The AC rep is a senior director, above which there is Vice President, Senior Vice President, Executive Vice President, President Passenger Airlines, and then CEO. Additionally, the market analysis group is a combination of Financial Planning & Analysis and Network Scheduling. The AC rep is from the Operations department that is dedicated to Airports. Finally, I would venture a guess the AC rep is based in Vancouver, where as the route analysis group is based out of Toronto and Montreal.

If the quote came from one of the top execs that is authorized to speak for AC, I would be slamming AC. These individuals are: Calin Rovenescu, Ben Smith, Craig Landry (for rouge routes), Marcel Forget, Kevin Howlett, or Klaus Goresch.

Chinook Arch · #**5282** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 6:08 PM**

I'm no expert in the aircraft industry, but could the Air Canada stagnation at YYC be because of Westjet?

Cage · #**5283** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 6:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by yyc_engineer

I don't know why they didn't put in for 787's a long time ago à la Norwegian, TUIfly etc. WestJet has tons of money. Tons. I know, I have given them a lot.

The WS board of directors did not support/authorize anything beyond the 767 lease for wide body expirement. There is no experiementation with Dreamliner operations because of the large capital and operational costs involved. To quote Yoda, "Do or do not, there is no try".

WS biggest problem with regard to corporate strategy is their dividend requirements. Every year the dividend pulls the equivalent of mortgage payments on 5 dream liners from free cash flow. As it stands, shareholders will take their money today rather than bet on future profits from a wide body operation.

The good news is that at the end of September WS put out a job advertisement for a Treasury Analyst that can do analysis for various types of debt instruments. This is an indication they are looking for a new or gently used aircraft purchase rather than dumpster diving for table scraps.

Cage · #**5284** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 7:01 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chinook Arch

I'm no expert in the aircraft industry, but could the Air Canada stagnation at YYC be because of Westjet?

This is partly true. Comparatively speaking AC is stronger in YYC than WS is in YYZ.

WS entrance into the wide body market has sped up AC initiatives with the rouge wide body fleet for YYZ. The questions to keep asking,
- where will WS wide body go out of YYZ?
- Where is the low hanging fruit for WS to pick that's is not all ready in The AC basket?

AC has found it easier than expected to compete with TS in YUL and YYZ. AC rouge now has the capability to kill off TS if it really wanted to. TS pulling down Western Canada to Europe is to support their YYZ operation, not because Western Canada suddenly became unprofitable.

One more thought, AC has not stagnated in YYC. While routes have stagnated, the number of seats per aircraft has grown by 33% in the past 6 years. Additionally economic conditions have gone from stellar to near depression and yet service still remains strong.

MrBigStuff · #**5285** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 7:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyeg66

I'm sure most of you have heard about the Citation crash north of Kelowna, a Springbank based a/c. Crashed while on departure in poor weather. All 4 souls on board perished.

That's now a few fatalities in the past couple years of some of our local YBW pilots. It's a shame. I last talked that plane/pilot a couple of days ago when he flew out to YLW. It'll be interesting to follow the accident investigation. Single pilot IFR cockpits...? We'll see if that could've contributed.

I looked on Wikipedia at the Cessna page and found that they have 10 different variants of the Citation listed and/or pictured. Newstalk 770 CHQR confirmed on their newscast - earlier today - that Jim Prentice was on board this aircraft that went down near Kelowna.

CrossedTheTracks · #**5286** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 8:33 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by cyeg66

I'm sure most of you have heard about the Citation crash north of Kelowna, a Springbank based a/c. Crashed while on departure in poor weather. All 4 souls on board perished.

That's now a few fatalities in the past couple years of some of our local YBW pilots. It's a shame. I last talked that plane/pilot a couple of days ago when he flew out to YLW. It'll be interesting to follow the accident investigation. Single pilot IFR cockpits...? We'll see if that could've contributed.

CADORS report at http://wwwapps.tc.gc.ca/Saf-Sec-Sur/2/ca...%26rt%3dQR%26hypl%3dy%26cnum%3d2016P1852

Quote:

A Norjet Inc. Cessna 500 (C-GTNG) from Kelowna, BC (CYLW) to Springbank, AB (CYBW) departed off Runway 34 and while climbing through 8 600 feet disappeared off radar. All attempts to establish communications were unsuccessful. Joint Rescue Coordination Centre (JRCC) Victoria and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) were advised. The RCMP located the crash site 0715Z.

Johnny Aussie · #**5287** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 9:02 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cage

TS pulling down Western Canada to Europe is to support their YYZ operation, not because Western Canada suddenly became unprofitable.

One more thought, AC has not stagnated in YYC. While routes have stagnated, the number of seats per aircraft has grown by 33% in the past 6 years. Additionally economic conditions have gone from stellar to near depression and yet service still remains strong.

Not necessarily. June stats indicate YYC-MAN fell 19% compared to June 2015. Probably a contributing factor to them dropping YYC-MAN next summer. Along with the introduction of YYC-LGW on WS and YYC-ZRH on WK did really add a lot of seats to the overall YYC-Europe market which no doubt shifted some passenger routings off some flights... and also most likely depressed yields. I think YYC-MAN and YYC-CDG probably did fall into the unprofitable category. I don't have numbers on YYC-CDG but losing 19% of traffic on an LCC could be enough to tip it into the red. I think YVR-FCO was a lost cause anyway, once weekly on a thin route on an LCC - not a great idea.

Edit: actually, it's even worse because in 2015 the twice weekly flights also once per week included GLA so overall those two weekly MAN flights would have been down 34%. Pretty sure that would be an indication of an unprofitable route. TS will be left with 3 weekly LGW and 1 weekly AMS direct to Europe. Pretty much need to feed their YYZ ops to compete now. Surprised they haven't tried a couple of weekly YEG-YYZ to help feed their Europe ops too but then maybe not.

http://www.caa.co.uk/uploadedFiles/CAA/C..._Intl_Air_Pax_Traffic_Route_Analysis.pdf

Overall YYC-LGW skyrocketed of course! And YYC-LHR being down just a factor of AC pulling its additional flights.

Again, my comments about YYC and AC are only based on recent developments... the other three hubs are just turboing along whist YYC has stagnated.

MrBigStuff · #**5288** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 9:03 PM**

With this aircraft being over 40 years old - how close was it to the expiry date ( hours ) on the airframe - etc.???

DizzyEdge · #**5289** Posted **Oct 14, 2016, 9:54 PM**

Quote:

and while climbing through 8 600 feet disappeared off radar

Mid air breakup?

#**5290** Posted **Oct 15, 2016, 12:27 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by DizzyEdge

Mid air breakup?

That's one a million possibilities, yes, though the crash site photo doesn't suggest it.

A plane disappearing from radar in a very mountainous does not immediately suggest a mid-air breakup at the point radar contact was lost, because the aircraft could just be below radar coverage which is highly compromised by obstructions.

I don't know if this thread should necessarily be about speculation possible causes.

Bigtime · #**5291** Posted **Oct 17, 2016, 2:45 PM**

NewLeaf is going to operate YYC-YXX and YYC-YHM flights for December and January. I'm guessing WS is going to respond in some way.

Thoughts?

Looks like pretty limited service to coincide with the holidays.

outoftheice · #**5292** Posted **Oct 17, 2016, 5:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigtime

NewLeaf is going to operate YYC-YXX and YYC-YHM flights for December and January. I'm guessing WS is going to respond in some way.

Thoughts?

Looks like pretty limited service to coincide with the holidays.

Makes sense. The oil patch slows down dramatically around the holidays so I'm sure Flair has extra airplanes sitting around during that time. Quick way to make some money and put some fare pressure on WestJet and AC although my guess is that New Leaf fills their limited number of flights early on and due to frequency WS and AC are still able to charge sky-high fares for people booking last minute.

CalgaryCheese · #**5293** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 1:56 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bigtime

NewLeaf is going to operate YYC-YXX and YYC-YHM flights for December and January. I'm guessing WS is going to respond in some way.

Thoughts?

Looks like pretty limited service to coincide with the holidays.

This would be the first Newleaf service to Calgary, yes?

Johnny Aussie · #**5294** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 2:51 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by CalgaryCheese

This would be the first Newleaf service to Calgary, yes?

Sure would be! 10 flights to YXX and 12 to YHM scheduled between mid December and early January.

They're obviously struggling where to send and how to fill their planes.... they keep starting and stopping routes and cities.

Bigtime · #**5295** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 12:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Johnny Aussie

Sure would be! 10 flights to YXX and 12 to YHM scheduled between mid December and early January.

They're obviously struggling where to send and how to fill their planes.... they keep starting and stopping routes and cities.

That was my thought as well, if they can't fill their planes around the holiday season on their existing routes that is not a very good sign. Adding Calgary appears to be an easy way to fill some planes up that would either be sitting idle or flying existing routes with bookings that do not look promising at this point.

yyc_engineer · #**5296** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 2:04 PM**

Anyone guesses where newleaf will be gating? A-gates with WestJet or in the newly vacated Domestic B section?

YYCguys · #**5297** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 2:18 PM**

How many planes does Flair currently own/lease/have or make available for New Leaf ops?

Bigtime · #**5298** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 2:42 PM**

According to Wikipedia Flair currently has five of the 737-400, one Embraer 175 (formerly Shell's I believe), and one Dornier 328.

MalcolmTucker · #**5299** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 3:00 PM**

I would book through them if could be sure it was the 328!

Cage · #**5300** Posted **Oct 18, 2016, 6:06 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by yyc_engineer

Anyone guesses where newleaf will be gating? A-gates with WestJet or in the newly vacated Domestic B section?

Probably A gates, a bunch of A gate capacity goes to the international terminal, I would guess about 3/10 contact gates become available on a full time basis.

I would not expect them to be gated on co concourse B as the airport authority will be busy ripping out US CBP and Concourse B preboard security screening in order to operate the YYC Link system more efficiently.

Any guess on when the Concourse B preboard security screening machines are removed, walls knocked down, new walls and hoarding created?