Canadian Federal Election

[Taeolas]

Yeah, very telling that Liberal support is basically in the high 40's and 50+ in many cases (aside from 2 polls at 44 and 45 respectively).

While CPC support is basically below 40% (2 at 41 and 42), and 4 polls at 35 or below.

The Liberal's worst polls are still 2-3 points above the CPC's best polls.

Heard on the radio this morning that apparently 67% of voters have locked in their choices now too.

At this point, it would probably take an unprecedented disaster in the debates to really shock Carney's campaign in any significant way. Especially since the Toddler in Chief down south is still giving Carney plenty of ammo to keep looking like the sane one in the room.

It's no wonder that the CBC poll tracker now has basically 99% of the Liberals winning and a 1% chance of the CPC party winning now. (They're at 89% chance of the Liberals getting a majority now even)

[O-tacular]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Not surprising. Poilievre is highly unpopular with woman and young people. Except in Saskatchewan...

Surprised he’s only +1 in AB. I think the Libs could take a few Calgary seats even.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by O-tacular

Surprised he’s only +1 in AB. I think the Libs could take a few Calgary seats even.

I have been looking at the individual ridings on 338Canada.ca.

The Liberal support is at levels not seen in decades (even though it's not that high relatively speaking).

-The Liberals will likely win 2 sears (one in each major city)
-3 ridings in Calgary are too close to call
-3 ridings in Edmonton either have Liberals leading or too close to call
-5 ridings that the CPC are slightly leading

If the Liberals can gain 3-4% by election time, they could end up winning 8-13 seats, which would be unheard of in that province.

[Taeolas]

On another board I'm on, I've also seen someone in Edmonton say they want to vote Liberal, but they're going to vote NDP to avoid vote splitting too. So there's not only the explicit Liberal support, but you can probably count some soft Liberal support in the NDP vote as well.

[BlackDog204]

The Modi ‘friends’ who helped finance Poilievre’s leadership campaign

"Modi’s Hindu nationalist party eventually won, and went on to transform India into a rising power, but also to allegedly interfere in Canada’s elections and assassinate a prominent Sikh leader in Surrey, B.C.

Meanwhile, Tawatia and the BJP’s other original Canadian “friends” put their money behind a politician closer to home.

Elections Canada records show the four founding convenors of the Overseas Friends of BJP Canada donated thousands of dollars to Poilievre’s leadership campaign."

more: https://globalnews.ca/news/11113678/over...da-modi-poilievre-conservative-election/

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

On another board I'm on, I've also seen someone in Edmonton say they want to vote Liberal, but they're going to vote NDP to avoid vote splitting too. So there's not only the explicit Liberal support, but you can probably count some soft Liberal support in the NDP vote as well.

Do you know if they live in Edmonton-Strathcona riding by any chance? It looks like that is the only riding in the province that is likely to go to the NDP. I actually lived in that riding for 5 years. Provincially, it's always been the most solid NDP district, although Edmonton has overwhelmingly voted for the NDP in the last 3 provincial elections.

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Do you know if they live in Edmonton-Strathcona riding by any chance? It looks like that is the only riding in the province that is likely to go to the NDP. I actually lived in that riding for 5 years. Provincially, it's always been the most solid NDP district, although Edmonton has overwhelmingly voted for the NDP in the last 3 provincial elections.

Yup, that's the one they said they were in. A few spare liberal votes isn't likely to split it even on 338's site, but I get the feeling they really don't want to give CPC a chance to get a win there.

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker

LPC - 44.0%, 201 seats (Liberal super-majority).
CPC - 37.1%, 116 seats
BLQ - 5.4%, 20 seats
NDP - 8.5%, 5 seats (loses official party status)
GRN - 2.4%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.7%, 0 seats

[FrankieFlowerpot]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-personal-digs-carney-political-career-1.7505275

Poilievre also narrowed in on Carney's private sector experience, which the Liberal leader has touted during the campaign.

"Mr. Carney is not a businessman. He is a political grifter," Poilievre said Tuesday in response to a question about Carney's past business dealings.

The career politician calling someone a "political grifter"

He said voters shouldn't think Carney is any different from Trudeau "because he has a banker's haircut and wears a pair of blue socks."

Didn't they learn from the last time they talked about an opponent's hair?

[casper]

Originally Posted by Marshsparrow

Is it true that the building was not clear with an occupancy permit, fire testing not done, fire hydrants not tested, fire exit signs, sprinklers not installed, no insurance, no liability insurance...

Does CPC HQ not check these things? Why are Conservatives so reckless with the lives of their followers? Where are the authorities aka Gatekeepers to crack down on these things?

You mean the party that is saying they want to cut red tape and "gatekeepers" is not following safety regulations and putting the safety of its supporters at risk? You don't say. Who would have thought.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker

I wouldn’t be posting anything here from the CBC if I were you, unless you want to get suspended

[jonny24]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker

LPC - 44.0%, 201 seats (Liberal super-majority).
CPC - 37.1%, 116 seats
BLQ - 5.4%, 20 seats
NDP - 8.5%, 5 seats (loses official party status)
GRN - 2.4%, 1 seat
PPC - 1.7%, 0 seats

Is "Super Majority" actually something that makes a difference to how the government functions, or is it just expressing that it's a very large number of seats?

PPC seems effectively dead now.



______

Having said that, my post is now firmly on topic and should not be deleted.

My other posts should NOT have been deleted. Come forward and explain why, whoever did so.

[kool maudit]

Originally Posted by casper

You mean that party that is saying they want to cut red tape and "gatekeepers" is not following safety regulations and putting the safety of its supporters at risk? You don't say. Who would have thought.

this is big news these guys are nuts we should probably have a German-style firewall in both the metaphorical and literal senses here

voting for lunatics isn't what voting is for somebody could get hurt

[lio45]

Originally Posted by jonny24

Having said that, my post is now firmly on topic and should not be deleted.

My other posts should NOT have been deleted. Come forward and explain why, whoever did so.

Same here! Users are the lifeblood of a forum. If you have a bit of respect for us, explain.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by casper

.
Lets talk about GDP per Capita

Using IMF 2025 numbers.....

Ireland - $107,243

Ireland must be quite the paradise where everybody drives a Lexus and takes first class vacations every year.

Or... this is a metric with a few flaws.

[travis3000]

Polls remain stable. Nanos and Mainstreet daily trackers are both down to a 3 point LPC lead, but in seat counts they both equate to a 180 seat LPC majority.

Liaison shows a 6 point LPC lead nationally. Abacus has a new poll coming out today around 3-4pm, but given their history I'm expecting it to show a tie.

On the high end we have Ekos (15 point LPC lead), Ipsos (12 point LPC lead), Angus Reid (10 point LPC) and MQO (10 point LPC lead). Then in the middle we have Pollara (8 point LPC lead), Leger (7 point LPC lead).

Overall, the race has been steady the last two weeks. There has been no "tightening" as some media have reported. The Liberal support has levelled off at around a 6-7 point lead nationally. If we are going to see any meaningful changes, IMO it will happen late next week after the debates.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Ireland must be quite the paradise where everybody drives a Lexus and takes first class vacations every year.

Or... this is a metric with a few flaws.

It has flaws. Ireland has a lot of tax haven GDP that provides a lot less relative value. Resource GDP is also often less beneficial though still a clear net positive despite some Canadian perspectives. At the end of the day it's the best indicator of overall wealth.

[MonctonRad]

• Video Link

A very interesting Youtube commentary

I have come to the conclusion myself that the upcoming election will be one of the most important elections in Canadian history.

This British pundit thinks the election is actually important for world history. He posits that discussions are under way amongst the actual free world nations to create an alternate trading block, and, that Canada (and Mark Carney) in particular are linchpins for this discussion. I actually think he is right.

For a change, what happens in Canada matters to the entire world.

Right now, Mark Carney has become one of the most important leaders in the world.

How often has this been said about a Canadian PM???

As Carney himself said, "if the United States choses not to lead us into the future, then Canada will."

Laurier once said the the 20th century would belong to Canada. He was only off by 100 years.

Mark Carney must win this election..............

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

• Video Link

A very interesting Youtube commentary

I have come to the conclusion myself that the upcoming election will be one of the most important elections in Canadian history.

This British pundit thinks the election is actually important for world history. He posits that discussions are under way amongst the actual free world nations to create an alternate trading block, and, that Canada (and Mark Carney) in particular are linchpins for this discussion. I actually think he is right.

For a change, what happens in Canada matters to the entire world.

Right now, Mark Carney has become one of the most important leaders in the world.

How often has this been said about a Canadian PM???

As Carney himself said, "if the United States choses not to lead us into the future, then Canada will."

Laurier once said the the 20th century would belong to Canada. He was only off by 100 years.

Mark Carney must win this election..............

I just watched this. Agree 100%. We NEED Carney to win.

[Truenorth00]

Global News is reporting that affiliates of India's BJP (the Hindu nationalist party of Indian PM Modi) helped fund Poilievre's leadership campaign.

https://globalnews.ca/news/11113678/over...da-modi-poilievre-conservative-election/