Federal Government & Politics II

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

• Video Link

So, waddaya think???

Will JT prorogue parliament before the BQ ultimatum??? I think this an intriguing possibility.

Will JT then step down and call a Liberal leadership convention in the spring? One can only hope, but the vacuous, vain and vapid (triple Vs, there ain't nothin' worse) PM of this formerly illustrious country probably lacks the intellect and self awareness to realize that this is what he has to do.

Will JT do the honourable thing?

Does he even have an honourable bone in his body???

Unless there is some miracle that really makes his support soar I'm quite sure that he won't be LPC leader for the next election in the Fall of 2025 unless it's a snap non-confidence vote that happens sooner than later.

He may prorogue parliament just before Christmas at the beginning of the break and maybe sooner if things become dysfunctional. Looking at the calendar of the House of Commons, I could see JT announcing his departure in December during the last week that parliament sits and him giving a goodbye speech.

An LPC leadership convention would be interesting to see and how quickly it is done. Candidates may decide behind the scenes to not make it too divisive or heated and with a goal of making the party different than under JT. There likely won't be very many people interested in running.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Ontario PC Party managed to complete a leadership race in six weeks in 2018. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but it's possible.

Yes, but in this case there is no requirement to govern, appoint ministers, write a speech from the throne, face a confidence vote, etc. There was also a leading candidate with a political machine already in place (Ford Nation). The previous leadership vote was in 2015, so party lists, etc. were reasonably up-to-date.

For the Liberals there is no presumptive candidate with a political machine (there is no Carney Nation, for example) and the new leader would have to appoint a cabinet, get ministers briefed, write a speech from the throne, etc. in a matter of days and would then immediately face a confidence vote. There hasn't been a convention since 2013. Lists, rules, riding associations, etc. are likely quite out of date.

[shreddog]

FWIW, proroguing gov't kills all Bills in progress. Currently, Bill C-64 - Pharmacare - is still with the Senate. Perhaps it could be pushed through before Christmas, but not that likely. As such, if PMJT does pull the prorogue hand grenade, the Pharmacare "centre piece" legislation is dead.

I think a good indicator of intent to go down this path will be the urgency the Senate puts towards finishing their review ... but since the majority are now independents, PMJT has no way to influence that, right

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Ontario PC Party managed to complete a leadership race in six weeks in 2018. I'm not saying it's a good idea, but it's possible.

Not according to the current LPC Constitution. Specifically para 45.c implies a minimum 3 month race: "deliver to the National President, at least 90 days before the day of the Leadership Vote, a written nomination (which may be in one or more counterparts) signed by at least 300 Registered Liberals ...". While the Constitution can always be changed, according to itself that can only be done at a convention. So it would be borderline impossible for them to have a "quick" leadership race.

It's also interesting to note that the LPC constitution states that as soon as the Leader announces their intention to resign an interim leader must be identified. Maybe Bob Rae can be convinced to come out of retirement ... again.

[shreddog]

So based on the two previous posts, a possible scenario is PMJT struggles to keep things together for another 8 weeks to allow the Senate to pass Bill C-64, prorogues early December and resigns. The LPC asks Bob Rae to come back as interim leader (or someone similar) and declares a leadership convention in early April. Candidates scramble over the holidays to put together a leadership team and declare their intentions, with the required 300 names, early/mid January. The Carney led task force is also killed, so no real change to the gov'ts finance story.

Assume Carney wins in April, he can either call a snap election based on his leadership campaign (assuming he has time to develop real policies) or tries to govern. In the first scenario, we have a possible election in end of June or early July. Not the best times, but whatever. If he tries to govern and lasts 2 months - maybe enough time to get a real budget out, depends on what happened in the leadership race - and we get a September election.

Both scenarios could mean however that Canada will not have any real government from December 2024 onwards.

[casper]

Originally Posted by shreddog

So based on the two previous posts, a possible scenario is PMJT struggles to keep things together for another 8 weeks to allow the Senate to pass Bill C-64, prorogues early December and resigns. The LPC asks Bob Rae to come back as interim leader (or someone similar) and declares a leadership convention in early April. Candidates scramble over the holidays to put together a leadership team and declare their intentions, with the required 300 names, early/mid January. The Carney led task force is also killed, so no real change to the gov'ts finance story.

Assume Carney wins in April, he can either call a snap election based on his leadership campaign (assuming he has time to develop real policies) or tries to govern. In the first scenario, we have a possible election in end of June or early July. Not the best times, but whatever. If he tries to govern and lasts 2 months - maybe enough time to get a real budget out, depends on what happened in the leadership race - and we get a September election.

Both scenarios could mean however that Canada will not have any real government from December 2024 onwards.

Ok. That provides a path forward. The Liberals can tell the NDP they would campaign on how the actions of the NDP forced them down this path that killed pharmacare. No NDPer would want that on their head. That will force the NDP to support the government until at least parliament goes into recess on Dec. 17. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene on Jan 27th. Perhaps pirogue for a month, that gets us into March.

There is time for a new more "traditional" Liberal budget (that the NDP, Conservatives and Bloc would all despise for opposite reasons). The government falls and we are off to an election. The conservatives can characterize it as a budget that is full of irresponsible spending. The NDP can paint it as one that lacks adequate social program spending. The Liberals can sell it as a middle of the road compromise. The BLOC can be upset because they are the bloc. Everyone is happy and off to the door knocking.

[Truenorth00]

Listened to the recent Herle Burly episode. They made the point there's a risk the LPC finishes the next election without party status, if trends keep up.

They also made the point that a large part of the failure is because the middle class just doesn't trust the Liberals to deliver. They see all these programs as niche that the majority of voters don't qualify for. So the only way out for the LPC is to stop growing these programs and give a tax cut. On the carbon tax, they argued the government should just pivot from a consumer facing carbon tax to an industrial cap and trade system.

One interesting point they made is that voters trust the NDP more on healthcare. So all the attack ads on the CPC are driving voters from blue to orange. Not blue to red. This is where there's a real risk the LPC ends up in third place. Or fourth behind the Bloc.

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by casper

Ok. That provides a path forward. The Liberals can tell the NDP they would campaign on how the actions of the NDP forced them down this path that killed pharmacare. No NDPer would want that on their head. That will force the NDP to support the government until at least parliament goes into recess on Dec. 17. Parliament is scheduled to reconvene on Jan 27th. Perhaps pirogue for a month, that gets us into March.

There is time for a new more "traditional" Liberal budget (that the NDP, Conservatives and Bloc would all despise for opposite reasons). The government falls and we are off to an election. The conservatives can characterize it as a budget that is full of irresponsible spending. The NDP can paint it as one that lacks adequate social program spending. The Liberals can sell it as a middle of the road compromise. The BLOC can be upset because they are the bloc. Everyone is happy and off to the door knocking.

Under any of these scenarios there is no opportunity for a budget. The budget requires Parliament to be sitting. Even if these fanfiction scenarios were to come true, the next leader has to recall parliament and have a speech from the throne. The speech from the throne is always a confidence vote.

Meanwhile, there is little indication Trudeau is planning to resign or that is caucus has the courage to push him out. There is no reason to believe Simon would approve a 4-5 month prorogation, it would be the longest prorogation in modern Canadian history. There is also no reason to believe Carney would want to run for the leadership.

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by shreddog

So based on the two previous posts, a possible scenario is PMJT struggles to keep things together for another 8 weeks to allow the Senate to pass Bill C-64, prorogues early December and resigns. The LPC asks Bob Rae to come back as interim leader (or someone similar) and declares a leadership convention in early April. Candidates scramble over the holidays to put together a leadership team and declare their intentions, with the required 300 names, early/mid January. The Carney led task force is also killed, so no real change to the gov'ts finance story.

Assume Carney wins in April, he can either call a snap election based on his leadership campaign (assuming he has time to develop real policies) or tries to govern. In the first scenario, we have a possible election in end of June or early July. Not the best times, but whatever. If he tries to govern and lasts 2 months - maybe enough time to get a real budget out, depends on what happened in the leadership race - and we get a September election.

Both scenarios could mean however that Canada will not have any real government from December 2024 onwards.

That is insanely complicated and nobody is this skillfully Machiavellian in real life. They'll ether run with a goodie loaded Fall Economic Statement if it's defeated. Or they run on the budget when that's defeated. There's no time to replace the leader. And every other party aside from the CPC wants Trudeau on the Liberal masthead. So they won't force it early now.

[MonctonRad]

• Video Link

Another (CTV) video with Nick Nanos discussing the recent Nanos poll.

The depths of Liberal despair seems to know no bounds under the ongoing JT regime. Support levels are at 20%, or possibly lower. There is a freefall, which seems to be accelerating.

Things are so bad that, in Atlantic Canada, there is currently only one safe Liberal seat (Acadie-Bathurst), where a fetid corpse could be the Liberal candidate and still win. Even the LeBlanc dynasty in Beausejour is at risk. Beausejour is now considered a toss-up. Dominic LeBlanc is the Liberal godfather of New Brunswick. It is truly inconceivable to think that even Don Dominic is vulnerable.

This is an irrecoverable situation. Even die hard Liberals must realize that JT has to go. I imagine an ultimatum will be given to him by the back room boys within the next 7-10 days, and this will include a prorogation of parliament followed by an immediate JT resignation, and a Liberal leadership convention within three months.

It is the only way.

[shreddog]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

That is insanely complicated and nobody is this skillfully Machiavellian in real life.

While I fully agree that this level of organization does not exist within the LPC, I also believe that some within the party think it does.

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

And every other party aside from the CPC wants Trudeau on the Liberal masthead.

I find this confusing as I would expect that the CPC wants PMJT to lead the LPC into the election given his polling numbers and haven't heard anything to the contrary.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

• Video Link

Another (CTV) video with Nick Nanos discussing the recent Nanos poll.

The depths of Liberal despair seems to know no bounds under the ongoing JT regime. Support levels are at 20%, or possibly lower. There is a freefall, which seems to be accelerating.

Things are so bad that, in Atlantic Canada, there is currently only one safe Liberal seat (Acadie-Bathurst), where a fetid corpse could be the Liberal candidate and still win. Even the LeBlanc dynasty in Beausejour is at risk. Beausejour is now considered a toss-up. Dominic LeBlanc is the Liberal godfather of New Brunswick. It is truly inconceivable to think that even Don Dominic is vulnerable.

This is an irrecoverable situation. Even die hard Liberals must realize that JT has to go. I imagine an ultimatum will be given to him by the back room boys within the next 7-10 days, and this will include a prorogation of parliament followed by an immediate JT resignation, and a Liberal leadership convention within three months.

It is the only way.

• Video Link

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by shreddog

So based on the two previous posts, a possible scenario is PMJT struggles to keep things together for another 8 weeks to allow the Senate to pass Bill C-64, prorogues early December and resigns. The LPC asks Bob Rae to come back as interim leader (or someone similar) and declares a leadership convention in early April. Candidates scramble over the holidays to put together a leadership team and declare their intentions, with the required 300 names, early/mid January. The Carney led task force is also killed, so no real change to the gov'ts finance story.

Assume Carney wins in April, he can either call a snap election based on his leadership campaign (assuming he has time to develop real policies) or tries to govern. In the first scenario, we have a possible election in end of June or early July. Not the best times, but whatever. If he tries to govern and lasts 2 months - maybe enough time to get a real budget out, depends on what happened in the leadership race - and we get a September election.

Both scenarios could mean however that Canada will not have any real government from December 2024 onwards.

Why would Carney want to become Ignatieff 2.0?

Better for him to wait out the coming wipeout and serve as a fundraising guy then take over and fight the next election.

[P'tit Renard]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Listened to the recent Herle Burly episode. They made the point there's a risk the LPC finishes the next election without party status, if trends keep up.

They also made the point that a large part of the failure is because the middle class just doesn't trust the Liberals to deliver. They see all these programs as niche that the majority of voters don't qualify for. So the only way out for the LPC is to stop growing these programs and give a tax cut. On the carbon tax, they argued the government should just pivot from a consumer facing carbon tax to an industrial cap and trade system.

One interesting point they made is that voters trust the NDP more on healthcare. So all the attack ads on the CPC are driving voters from blue to orange. Not blue to red. This is where there's a real risk the LPC ends up in third place. Or fourth behind the Bloc.

At this point, I don't think even a tax cut will save the Liberals. Many voters will look for more tangible actions/results, like collapsing NPR numbers that will pop the rental bubble in Toronto.

On a recent clip from CBC's the Current, local Torontonians are drowning in debt and maxing out their credit because unreasonably high rents eat up so much of their income. It's heartbreaking listening to the single mom who's paying over $3000/month in Toronto just to keep a roof over their heads:

Many renters in Canada rely on credit cards to make ends meet | The Current
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gc85DB9xkfI

In the GTA we have some friends who are in similar situations (especially those who weren't lucky enough to break out in their profession) and constantly on edge and elevated anxiety. The situation is definitely a lot worse amongst our friends circle in Toronto and Vancouver, versus Montreal. Which would explain why the Liberals are still hanging on in Montreal island.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

Listened to the recent Herle Burly episode. They made the point there's a risk the LPC finishes the next election without party status, if trends keep up.

They also made the point that a large part of the failure is because the middle class just doesn't trust the Liberals to deliver. They see all these programs as niche that the majority of voters don't qualify for. So the only way out for the LPC is to stop growing these programs and give a tax cut. On the carbon tax, they argued the government should just pivot from a consumer facing carbon tax to an industrial cap and trade system.

One interesting point they made is that voters trust the NDP more on healthcare. So all the attack ads on the CPC are driving voters from blue to orange. Not blue to red. This is where there's a real risk the LPC ends up in third place. Or fourth behind the Bloc.

This seems like good advice for 2022. Changing to Cap and Trade wouldn't do much at this point. I think they are at risk of under 12 seats as once the writ is dropped Quebec support will melt away. Remaining atlantic support is also vulnerable in a wave. Honestly could see Ottawa Vanier (my riding and won comfortably in 2011) going if the writing is so clear why send a useless Liberal. All of this could be good for the NDP if they can cobble together some kind of a realistic platform. It can be far left but needs to at least make sense. They could steal the Halifax, Ottawa Downtown Toronto ridings getting the champagne socialist vote that is solidly Liberal and not going to Cons in any circumstance.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

• Video Link

Another (CTV) video with Nick Nanos discussing the recent Nanos poll.

The depths of Liberal despair seems to know no bounds under the ongoing JT regime. Support levels are at 20%, or possibly lower. There is a freefall, which seems to be accelerating.

Things are so bad that, in Atlantic Canada, there is currently only one safe Liberal seat (Acadie-Bathurst), where a fetid corpse could be the Liberal candidate and still win. Even the LeBlanc dynasty in Beausejour is at risk. Beausejour is now considered a toss-up. Dominic LeBlanc is the Liberal godfather of New Brunswick. It is truly inconceivable to think that even Don Dominic is vulnerable.

This is an irrecoverable situation. Even die hard Liberals must realize that JT has to go. I imagine an ultimatum will be given to him by the back room boys within the next 7-10 days, and this will include a prorogation of parliament followed by an immediate JT resignation, and a Liberal leadership convention within three months.

It is the only way.

Oh look… the polling support for the LPC is at 21.5%… yet it’s ‘fact’ that the older generations, who apparently hold 40% if the vote, all support the LPC to protect the value of their homes and keep the younger generation down… uh-huh.

[theman23]

i think it's pretty damning that even with all of their desperate attempts at vote buying over the last two years, the Liberals have only dug a deeper hole. As mentioned above, they lack credibility and their announcements have been met with eye rolls instead of excitement.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark

Oh look… the polling support for the LPC is at 21.5%… yet it’s ‘fact’ that the older generations, who apparently hold 40% if the vote, all support the LPC to protect the value of their homes and keep the younger generation down… uh-huh.

Yeah because now they have to pay for their kids and grand kids shit so the horrendous mess this government made is finally hitting them indirectly.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inve...cation%20costs.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by acottawa

Under any of these scenarios there is no opportunity for a budget. The budget requires Parliament to be sitting. Even if these fanfiction scenarios were to come true, the next leader has to recall parliament and have a speech from the throne. The speech from the throne is always a confidence vote.

Meanwhile, there is little indication Trudeau is planning to resign or that is caucus has the courage to push him out. There is no reason to believe Simon would approve a 4-5 month prorogation, it would be the longest prorogation in modern Canadian history. There is also no reason to believe Carney would want to run for the leadership.

The details are surmountable. He could prorougue in October annouce he will resign on Jan 1 Select a leader by Christmas Parties and they'd have till February to get Throne and proposed budget together.I don't see Simon standing up to that. Harper avoiding it to stay alive right after the election was more dubious.

But as you say there is no sign of any courage from caucus nor inclination he will leave without being pushed. I guess it's probably more courageous to stay and go down with the ship even if it's the wrong choice for party country etc.

[OldDartmouthMark]

Originally Posted by Hecate

Yeah because now they have to pay for their kids and grand kids shit so the horrendous mess this government made is finally hitting them indirectly.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/inve...cation%20costs.

C’mon, man, pick an argument and stick with it.