Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
Poilievre is still very likely to win the next election. But he's going to have to play this right. Looking like a Trump bootlicker is not the winning look. Nor is talking incessantly about oil when auto workers in Ontario start getting layoff notices.
A million Ontario jobs directly or indirectly depend on trade to the US. Six figure employment in auto and parts manufacturing. If he doesn't look like he's fighting for these jobs, he will not be Prime Minister.
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I'm not so sure about this for a few reasons:
- Trudeau, rather than the Liberals, was effectively the government brand as far as Conservatives were concerned. This will make a leadership change for the Liberals feel much more like a change to Canadians than it would have otherwise been.
- Carney has much better CV than Trudeau and Poilievre's usual style of attack wouldn't really work against him
- a confidence vote is far less likely to succeed with Trudeau stepping down and while a major trade war has been launched by the US - this will give a Carney government time to distinguish itself from Trudeau's government
- the trade war demands unity from leadership which really limits what Poilievre can do to define a new Liberal leader as it has a good chance of backfiring on him
- Ford is likely to win the election in Ontario again and that will dampen Conservative support federally in Ontario
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