Coletto retweeted an analysis I saw a while ago that I posted about here before but couldn't find it at the time.
https://x.com/DavidColetto/status/1883122101298868225?t=gLJphrpmP5E0d8e4Z0uF1g&s=19
The narrative that being "socially progressive and fiscally conservative" is some sweet spot is totally false. Only 6% of the electorate is like that. The opposite combination - being fiscally progressive and socially conservative - is actually much more common at 21% of the electorate.
Overall:
-24% are progressive both economically & socially
-17% are conservative both economically & socially
-6% are conservative economically but progressive socially
-21% are progressive economically but conservative socially
On social issues 30% are progressive and 36% are conservative.
On economic issues 45% are progressive and only 23% are conservative.
So the "conventional wisdom" - that everyone is socially progressive and only economics is the basis for difference between left & right, meaning the conservatives have to appeal to "balanced budget+ social liberalism" to be electable - is actually complete hogwash.
Canadians overwhelmingly prefer - by a margin of more than two to one - left wing economic policy. But on social cultural policy Canadians are more divided with a slight plurality actually being conservative.
Coletto then goes on to note that the CPC is very popular right now with the "socially conservative + economically progressive" side of the quadrant which feels very alienated by the "pink haired politics" of the LPC and the NDP.
This also suggests that PP will become very unpopular shortly after taking office, Starmer style, as he'll interpret his win as a mandate of austerity when it's not.
It also suggests the logical approach for Carney or Freeland is not to move right on economics, but to stay the course on being economically progressive while moving right on social-cultural issues.
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