Quote:
Originally Posted by TheHonestMaple
How could a model predict the number of people that would stop driving their cars and take West Harbour GO if there was a dedicated electric track from West Harbour to Aldershot. It couldn't. They will never know the answer unless they build it.
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Mode shifts are one of the things they forecast.
For better or worse, they're the best tools available at the moment, and based on known trip patterns gleaned from sources like the Transportation Tomorrow Survey (one of the most comprehensive travel surveys there is). Before they were available transportation planners worked from their own experience (and bias, likely) to consider what would be needed.
Part of the problem isn't their "horrible reputation" (for which I'd like to see your proof and examples) but that their connection to land use change is not two-way, though change in one does lead to change in the other. This is well known, and there is ongoing research into new types of models that account for that relationship in a stronger way. And assumptions change, sometimes in ways not expected such as when a government decides to implement a new growth strategy or change the one that is in place.
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