BC Political Discussion - BC Election 2017 May 9th

[Metro-One]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

Where is the evidence of this?

Wish I had the time to search for the exact sources, but it has been alluded to on several occasions at major announcements and off hand comments (negatively from the city of Surrey of course)

It was mentioned again recently on the Surrey LRT thread where the mayor of Surrey stated that they want LRT down Fraser but the Province and Translink are pushing for Skytrain.

It is also why any documents / announcements from the province avoid using the term LRT while Surrey uses it non stop.

Think Evergreen Line, city of Port Moody wanted LRT. Well before things got rolling Port Moody always used the term LRT when talking about the line, at the same time the province simply said "rapid transit" "rail transit" or "Evergreen Line" when discussing it. In the end guess what happened, the province said no to the city's wishes and went with Skytrain.

[WarrenC12]

Originally Posted by Metro-One

Wish I had the time to search for the exact sources, but it has been alluded to on several occasions at major announcements and off hand comments (negatively from the city of Surrey of course)

It was mentioned again recently on the Surrey LRT thread where the mayor of Surrey stated that they want LRT down Fraser but the Province and Translink are pushing for Skytrain.

It is also why any documents / announcements from the province avoid using the term LRT while Surrey uses it non stop.

Think Evergreen Line, city of Port Moody wanted LRT. Well before things got rolling Port Moody always used the term LRT when talking about the line, at the same time the province simply said "rapid transit" "rail transit" or "Evergreen Line" when discussing it. In the end guess what happened, the province said no to the city's wishes and went with Skytrain.

I have no doubt that Translink wants Skytrain, and that a Kevin Falcon-era BC Liberal government would push for it. But everything I've seen from Clark, Stone, and Fassbender, they could not care less what happens with Metro Vancouver public transit.

[Stingray2004]

Polling. BC public opinion polls. Always a fascinating topic.

The 2009 BC election was the last election whereby CATI methodology was utilized by pollsters - the "gold standard". CATI - live telephone interviews (landline/cell). CATI has always been virtually bang-on with their results.

To wit, Nanos (CATI) has nailed all last 5 federal elections - even nailed the BC federal election results with their small sub-sample in 2011 and 2015. The BC Libs internally used CATI during the 2013 election and their CATI internals (both provincially and riding level) were also bang-on - predicted 48 seats on Friday (4 days before 2013 e-day - actually won 49) and nailed the province-wide voting result.

The 2013 BC election was the first election that CATI methodology was not utilized by public pollsters. Why? Although CATI is reliable and accurate... it is also very expensive. Ergo, 2 new polling methodologies were introduced during the 2013 election campaign - opt-in online panel and IVR (robo), which are very cheap to produce but also highly inaccurate.

Basically, for the first time ever, the 2013 BC election campaign only had opt-in online and IVR public pollsters. All of these pollsters/methodologies confirmed a major BC NDP win at the end of the 2013 campaign. Fooled everyone.

Now heading into the 2017 writ period... we are also witnessing the same 2 polling methodologies utilized as in 2013 - opt-in online panel and IVR. No CATI polling.

2017 polling methodologies to date/pollsters:

1. IVR (robo) polling methodology - Mainstreet Research/Forum Research. The last Mainstreet Research poll, released yesterday, had a 4% BC NDP lead (albeit with a high 25% undecided rate)

To put things into context, Ekos (IVR pollster) released several opinion polls during the 2013 BC campaign. At the start of the 2013 campaign, Ekos held that the BC NDP led by 17%:

EKOS POLITICS

BC NDP VICTORY ALL BUT CERTAIN

April 12, 2013

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_bc_april_12_2013.pdf

By the end of the 2013 campaign, Ekos held that the BC NDP had a 6% lead:

EKOS POLITICS

TIGHTENING BC RACE SEES NDP WITH NARROW BUT
SIGNIFICANT LEAD WITH LIKELY VOTERS

May 13, 2013

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_bc_may_13_2013.pdf

As an aside, the BC Green Party has hired Ekos as their internal pollster... ergo they will not be releasing public IVR/robo polls. Mainstreet Research/Forum Research will be releasing public IVR polls in 2017.

2. Opt-in online polling methodology - Insights West - the last IW poll released this past week held that the BC NDP led by 2%. Ipsos - the last Ipsos poll released this past week held that the BC NDP leads by 5%. To put things into context, Ipsos released several opinion polls during the 2013 BC campaign. At the start of the 2013 campaign, Ipsos held that the BC NDP led by 19%:

NDP Start BC Campaign with 19 Point Lead

NDP (48%, down 3) and BC Liberals (29%, down 3) Lose Support to BC Conservatives (11%, up 2) and Green Party (9%, up 2)

Approval Ratings Unchanged for Christy Clark (30%, no change) and Adrian Dix (51%, no change)

Dix (36%, down 1) Continues to Lead Clark (23%, no change) as Best Premier

Tuesday, April 16, 2013

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6067


By the end of the 2013 campaign, Ipsos held that the BC NDP had an 8% lead:

BC NDP Lead By 8 Points As Campaign Ends

NDP (45%, up 2) Lead BC Liberals (37%, unchanged) by 8 Points

Green Party (9%, down 1) and BC Conservatives (6%, down 1) Both Down Single Point

Adrian Dix (34%, up 3) and Christy Clark (33%, down 1) Tied as Best Premier

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6113

Aside from the foregoing, we may have one CATI pollster this election.

Back in August, 2016, Innovative Research, CATI pollster, released their first ever "public" BC polling results. Shortly thereafter, Mainstreet Research (IVR) also released BC polling results. Both results were completely different - IR held that the BC Libs led by 9%, while Mainstreet Research held that the BC NDP led by 5%.

That's a 14% differential/reversal, which also mirrors the 10% - 13% differential/reversal at the end of the 2013 BC election campaign between opt-in online panel/IVR pollsters and the actual election results.

Now who is Innovative Research? Been around for ~15 years and the principle is Greg Lyle who is from BC and understands how to poll BC. Are their CATI polls accurate? Well, last fall both Nanos (CATI) and IR released provincial ON polls and they basically mirrored each others results. Nanos also nailed the previous ON provincial election as well as the 5 past federal elections..

Innovative Research will apparently be releasing new BC CATI numbers soon and personally that firm will be the only one that I will rely on in terms of accuracy. I always prefer both reliability and accuracy.

Even then, while accurate, poll numbers only represent a snapshot in time. Right now most of the electorate is only beginning to pay attention to the campaign. Only half-way through the writ period, during and after the televised leaders debate, is when the electorate typically becomes engaged.

Only during the final 7 - 10 days, do polling numbers begin to solidify and where polling shifts become extant.

[Stingray2004]

BC battleground ridings - the swing ridings that are key to winning the 2017 BC election.

After the 2013 BC election, the BC Boundaries Commission drew up a new electoral map in BC, which increased the number of ridings by 2 - from 85 to 87. Concurrently, many existing ridings saw boundary changes and some 2013 riding results saw changes (eg. from safe seat to leaning, etc.).

I have access to the transposed 2013 riding results for all new 87 ridings... and the following, by region, is how I see the battleground/swing ridings pan out in 2017 (with 2013 electoral riding result):

Interior BC:

1. Fraser Nicola - Liberal
2. Columbia River-Revelstoke - NDP
3. Boundary-Similkameen - Liberal
4. Skeena - NDP
5. Stikine - NDP

Metro Vancouver:

1. Burnaby-Deer Lake - NDP
2. Burnaby-Lougheed - NDP
3. Burnaby Noth - Liberal
4. Coquitlam-Maillardville - NDP
5. Port Moody-Coquitlam - Liberal
6. North Vancouver-Lonsdale - Liberal
7. Delta North - Liberal
8. Surrey-Fleetwood - Liberal (*with transposed results NDP wins in 2013)
9. Surrey Guildford - Liberal (*11% BC Con vote here in 2013)
10. Maple Ridge-Mission - Liberal
11. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows - Liberal

Vancouver:

1. Vancouver-Fairview - NDP
2. Vancouver-Fraserview - Liberal
3. Vancouver-Point Grey - NDP

Vancouver Island:

1. North Island - NDP
2. Nanaimo - NDP
3. Cowichan Valley - NDP
4. Saanich North and the Islands - NDP

*note that Great Victoria, comprising 7 ridings, is also the most volatile/unpredictable area in BC, which could see another 4 ridings become 3-way battlegrounds. Too early to say yet at this point in time.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

BC battleground ridings - the swing ridings that are key to winning the 2017 BC election.

After the 2013 BC election, the BC Boundaries Commission drew up a new electoral map in BC, which increased the number of ridings by 2 - from 85 to 87. Concurrently, many existing ridings saw boundary changes and some 2013 riding results saw changes (eg. from safe seat to leaning, etc.).

I have access to the transposed 2013 riding results for all new 87 ridings... and the following, by region, is how I see the battleground/swing ridings pan out in 2017 (with 2013 electoral riding result):

Interior BC:

1. Fraser Nicola - Liberal
2. Columbia River-Revelstoke - NDP
3. Boundary-Similkameen - Liberal
4. Skeena - NDP
5. Stikine - NDP

Metro Vancouver:

1. Burnaby-Deer Lake - NDP
2. Burnaby-Lougheed - NDP
3. Burnaby Noth - Liberal
4. Coquitlam-Maillardville - NDP
5. Port Moody-Coquitlam - Liberal
6. North Vancouver-Lonsdale - Liberal
7. Delta North - Liberal
8. Surrey-Fleetwood - Liberal (*with transposed results NDP wins in 2013)
9. Surrey Guildford - Liberal (*11% BC Con vote here in 2013)
10. Maple Ridge-Mission - Liberal
11. Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows - Liberal

Vancouver:

1. Vancouver-Fairview - NDP
2. Vancouver-Fraserview - Liberal
3. Vancouver-Point Grey - NDP

Vancouver Island:

1. North Island - NDP
2. Nanaimo - NDP
3. Cowichan Valley - NDP
4. Saanich North and the Islands - NDP

*note that Great Victoria, comprising 7 ridings, is also the most volatile/unpredictable area in BC, which could see another 4 ridings become 3-way battlegrounds. Too early to say yet at this point in time.

How big of a majority government do you expect the BC Liberals to win?

[bluefox]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

How big of a majority government do you expect the BC Liberals to win?

I don't think Stingray is wrong. There are way too many parts of the province that are increasingly out of reach for the NDP and they need those to win a majority. I wouldn't be surprised to see 50+ seats for the Liberals on May 9th.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

How big of a majority government do you expect the BC Liberals to win?

Wayyyyy up-thread I already posted my final prediction based upon CATI data/87 seat riding analysis, historical results, demographics, etc. within a range of seats, for the 2017 election outcome and I stand by same. In any event, before I repost same, I await the next Innovative Research poll for analysis and to corroborate same.

That said, 2 "elephants are in the room" for the 2017 BC election unlike previous:

1. Andrew Weaver/BC Greens - from fringe to credible and positioning themselves as "red" federal Liberals. Most importantly, is the performance of Weaver in TV leadership debate on April 29. Potentially changes electoral dynamics.

2. 4 days before the TV leadership debate, the U.S. government will release its decision on Canadian softwood lumber duties. That decision will potentially affect the entire dynamic of the 2017 campaign as forestry workers are extant all over BC - from NW BC to NE BC to interior BC all the way down to Van Isle. Will likely spook the electorate and turn political narrative entirely into "jobs and the economy":

U.S. government to release decision on Canadian softwood lumber duties on April 25

Canadian forestry companies say jobs at risk if duties levied

The Canadian Press Posted: Apr 13, 2017 2:28 PM ET

The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday it will announce on April 25 whether it will impose the first of two duties on Canadian softwood.

A spokesman for the department said any countervailing duties would be applied on imports about a week later. A decision on anti-dumping duties is expected to be released May 5, but could be delayed.

Analyst Paul Quinn of RBC Capital Markets said he anticipates the Americans will impose "shock and awe" duties in the range of 30 to 40 per cent.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the preliminary rates come out really high," he said from Vancouver.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-u...m_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[hollywoodnorth]

Originally Posted by bluefox

I don't think Stingray is wrong. There are way too many parts of the province that are increasingly out of reach for the NDP and they need those to win a majority. I wouldn't be surprised to see 50+ seats for the Liberals on May 9th.

hell yes!

can I get a GO CHRISTY GO anyone????!!!!!!

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by bluefox

I don't think Stingray is wrong. There are way too many parts of the province that are increasingly out of reach for the NDP and they need those to win a majority. I wouldn't be surprised to see 50+ seats for the Liberals on May 9th.

I don't think he's wrong either. I was just asking him a question.

I think the election will be close, liberals will probably win with little trouble, but I think the NDP will give a better run this year than in 2013.

NDPs platform far more ambitious and progressive than in 2013. That's likely to benefit the party.

As for me, I'm voting NDP, I'm sick of this corporate controlled government which lacks a social conscience. Do I expect us to win? No, but I'll damn well try anyway.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Wayyyyy up-thread I already posted my final prediction based upon CATI data/87 seat riding analysis, historical results, demographics, etc. within a range of seats, for the 2017 election outcome and I stand by same. In any event, before I repost same, I await the next Innovative Research poll for analysis and to corroborate same.

That said, 2 "elephants are in the room" for the 2017 BC election unlike previous:

1. Andrew Weaver/BC Greens - from fringe to credible and positioning themselves as "red" federal Liberals. Most importantly, is the performance of Weaver in TV leadership debate on April 29. Potentially changes electoral dynamics.

2. 4 days before the TV leadership debate, the U.S. government will release its decision on Canadian softwood lumber duties. That decision will potentially affect the entire dynamic of the 2017 campaign as forestry workers are extant all over BC - from NW BC to NE BC to interior BC all the way down to Van Isle. Will likely spook the electorate and turn political narrative entirely into "jobs and the economy":



http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-u...m_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Weavers greens aren't campaigning from the centre, you continuously claiming such hurts your credibility. Nearly everything in the Green Party platform is left of the NDP and falls under the loony left category.

[Stingray2004]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

Weavers greens aren't campaigning from the centre, you continuously claiming such hurts your credibility. Nearly everything in the Green Party platform is left of the NDP and falls under the loony left category.

I stand by my observations of the BC Greens. Many fed "red" Liberals are working on Weaver's campaign... former BC NDP/federal Lib type supporters. Weaver comes across as a centrist - centre-left. Their candidate list includes many PhDs and high-tech types. In some of their biographies they describe themselves as "fiscal conservatives".

And it's not just me saying that. As a matter of fact, I place the BC NDP left of the BC Greens. Agree to disagree.

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

I stand by my observations of the BC Greens. Many fed "red" Liberals are working on Weaver's campaign... former BC NDP/federal Lib type supporters. Weaver comes across as a centrist - centre-left. Their candidate list includes many PhDs and high-tech types. In some of their biographies they describe themselves as "fiscal conservatives".

And it's not just me saying that. As a matter of fact, I place the BC NDP left of the BC Greens. Agree to disagree.

For once I agree with you here.

Again, it will come out to whether or not voters strategically vote.

My gut tells me you're right and the Greens will take urban support away from the NDP. The BC Liberals essentially have a stranglehold on the conservative vote and some of the federal liberal vote.

I tend to feel that a majority of the province want an alternative to Christy Clark but have too much to lose if we go into the "unknown." These include those working in construction/trades, tech, real estate, finance and banking etc...You also add in all the homeowners in the province that have seen their home valuations rise in the past 8 years coupled with new immigrants that have benefited off the BC Libs. Essentially, the NDP support will come from those who have been shutout by the real estate market and the more marginalized individuals/groups (ie. unemployed, those suffering mental health/addictions, making below a certain threshold).

People I know have talked about voting for the NDP but I ultimately know they will end up voting for the BC Liberals. Shocking thing is that many of those are in unions.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

I stand by my observations of the BC Greens. Many fed "red" Liberals are working on Weaver's campaign... former BC NDP/federal Lib type supporters. Weaver comes across as a centrist - centre-left. Their candidate list includes many PhDs and high-tech types. In some of their biographies they describe themselves as "fiscal conservatives".

And it's not just me saying that. As a matter of fact, I place the BC NDP left of the BC Greens. Agree to disagree.

Whether thats what they claim or not, their campaign speaks for itself and they are running left of the NDP.

What matters is public perception and the greens are likely to be seen by the public at large as left wing.

We will see since the election and debate is a ways off, but I'm basing my statements off of the campaigns themselves and not what individual candidates are claiming to be.

[WarrenC12]

I'm not sure what specific campaign policy held by the Greens make them a center party. They are the party of choice for the hippy/enviro crowd for obvious reasons. The rest of their policy is pretty left leaning.

Platform is here:

http://www.bcgreens.ca/platform

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

I'm not sure what specific campaign policy held by the Greens make them a center party. They are the party of choice for the hippy/enviro crowd for obvious reasons. The rest of their policy is pretty left leaning.

Platform is here:

http://www.bcgreens.ca/platform

Magic apparently

Just because stingray says so so it must be true.

[Stingray2004]

Some nuggets.

2017 BC NDP platform is the most left-wing that they have produced since at least 1972, if not into the 1960's. I already predicted same earlier on herein.

BC NDP candidates are mostly left-wing ideologues - SJWs, enviro activists, public sector union activists.

All over social media NDP partisans constantly refer to the BC Greens as "Liberal-lite", "conservative", "libertarian", "right-wing", etc.

Hell, back in the 2013 BC election the BC Greens obtained a higher amount of 2009 BC Liberal voters than 2009 BC NDP voters in Greater Victoria. Says something right there. Even Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has referred to the BC NDP as full of left-wing activists on social media.

This is the first place that I have heard anyone state that the BC Greens are left of the BC NDP. But everyone is certainly entitled to their own opinion.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by Stingray2004

Some nuggets.

2017 BC NDP platform is the most left-wing that they have produced since at least 1972, if not into the 1960's. I already predicted same earlier on herein.

BC NDP candidates are mostly left-wing ideologues - SJWs, enviro activists, public sector union activists.

All over social media NDP partisans constantly refer to the BC Greens as "Liberal-lite", "conservative", "libertarian", "right-wing", etc.

Hell, back in the 2013 BC election the BC Greens obtained a higher amount of 2009 BC Liberal voters than 2009 BC NDP voters in Greater Victoria. Says something right there. Even Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has referred to the BC NDP as full of left-wing activists on social media.

This is the first place that I have heard anyone state that the BC Greens are left of the BC NDP. But everyone is certainly entitled to their own opinion.

NDP hacks also call the federal liberals exactly the same as the Tories, kind of a bad example to use, the NDP hates anyone on the left that poses a risk to their electoral chances.

I'm not partisan, I vote for the progressive party that can win elections, federally thats Liberal, provincially thats NDP.

However I'm much further left than both and I have read the platforms of both the greens and NDP and I am FAR more impressed by the greens because they are running left of the NDP.

Parties can call themselves whatever they want, NDP partisan hacks attack the greens because they rightfully know the greens are encroaching on their turf, to call them Lib/con lite is a way the ndp partisan hacks believe they can push away green supporters in their direction.

Most green supporters I know are leftists who view the Liberals and NDP as 2 sides of the same coin and for the most part, they aren't entirely wrong. The NDP is full of lefty nutcases but the party itself is running on a pretty centrist Liberal platform no different from what the democrats stateside run on. If you call literally a 1% hike on corporate taxes fringe left or the reinstatement of a tax on the top 2% that even the BC Liberals supported just 4 years ago fringe left, than your entire concept of left vs right is extremely off base. Theres little in the NDP platform I'd call far left aside from the BC Childcare plan which btw makes perfect bloody sense when it comes to helping middle class and lower class parents with their children allowing mothers to enter the workforce.

Why in gods name in this country a $15 an hour minimum wage, a tiny hike on corporate taxes, increases to social programs that are VERY NEEDED and very pragmatic mind you ($100 more a month for those on disabilities, what a bloody joke but it's better than the $50 the Liberals promised) and a universal childcare plan are all seen is controversial is beyond me, it really goes to show just how much of a right wing shit hole Canada is that even these basic moderate pragmatic ideas are seen as borderline communistic by both the media and the public at large.

Edit: Regardless the BC Liberals will most likely win this election regardless of any of our points here. I back the NDP because their platform is pragmatic and makes sense, but if you really want to obsess over some so called fringe commie shit heads in the NDP from days old, than do so, no one will stop you.

What I do know is the BC Liberals will be fine for business but you know who they aren't fine for? The disabled who get fucked by them every year as their tiny amount of income is eaten away by inflation, those locked out of the housing market, the bottom 50% of the population who wasn't lucky enough to be born into wealth or success.

But whatever, I'm ranting, BC Liberal supporters don't give 2 bloody shits about THOSE people, they only care about tax cuts.

[WarrenC12]

It's obvious the Greens are Left because Christy keeps talking up Weaver. She knows they will bleed away votes from the NDP and leave the Liberals with a majority.

My bet is that the Liberals will win, but more people will vote for Green + NDP than Liberal. Much whining will commence, but if you don't vote strategically and let the perfect be the enemy of the good, you'll get the Liberals. Just like Americans who voted for Stein or didn't vote because they preferred Bernie, ended up with Trump.

[Bcasey25raptor]

Originally Posted by WarrenC12

It's obvious the Greens are Left because Christy keeps talking up Weaver. She knows they will bleed away votes from the NDP and leave the Liberals with a majority.

My bet is that the Liberals will win, but more people will vote for Green + NDP than Liberal. Much whining will commence, but if you don't vote strategically and let the perfect be the enemy of the good, you'll get the Liberals. Just like Americans who voted for Stein or didn't vote because they preferred Bernie, ended up with Trump.

Pretty much yes, the Greens will mow the NDPs lawn and we'll be stuck with another Christy Clark mandate.

Pretty much similar to what happened federally in 2011 when the NDP surged and the Liberals collapsed allowing the Conservatives to run up the middle and form government.

This is why this country NEEDS proportional representation. No one should have to compromise their views because they risk dividing the vote, thats unfair to smaller parties and their supporters.

Note: Under a proportional representation voting system or Preferential ballot, I'd vote BC Green followed by the NDP in second place. Under first past the post, NDP gets my vote and Liberals get my vote Federally.

[Bcasey25raptor]

I posted this analyses on my facebook and I figured it's worth sharing here.

I DO want the NDP to win and I do lean left, but I'm also a logical girl who knows a thing or 2 about math and voter spreads

"April 15th BC Election prediction:
As you all may know, I've been hesitant to make a prediction so early in the campaign because the 2013 polls were so off. Well I believe polls this year are a little more reliable so I think it's possible they are correct.
Knowing this, polls predict an NDP Government, but I don't. Heres why.
polling data still suggests an NDP government next month but tbh the chance of that is low because the only time they've ever won was when the right vote split back in 1972, 1991, and 1996.
The issue is in this election not only is the right united under 1 party (the BC Tories literally don't exist in this election), but the left is divided because on the NDP's left flank the greens are surging in support.
I could very well see the BC NDP win the popular vote but still fail to form government.
Heres the reasons why
1) The NDP needs to grow their seat count from the current 35 seats to 44 to win. Thats 9 seats, thats mathematically extremely unlikely
2) The Liberals are guaranteed 40 seats from the starting gates since we are talking seats they've never ever lost before, NDP are guaranteed 30.
that means there are 17 seats at play that could swing, sorta.
Greens are likely to keep their 1 seat at the minimum, this means theres 16 swing seats.
In order for the NDP to win, they must win 13 of those swing seats. which is again, mathematically borderline impossible
the anything but clark or anything but bc liberal vote is also not as strong as the anyone but harper vote in 2015, so the chance of seat flips like then (kelowna going Liberal federally for example) are extremely unlikely.
If the NDP wants to win, they need to rally youth voters and get them to the polls, because if youth don't vote, they stand no chance.
Furthermore based on the poor coverage this election has gotten so far, no one seems interested because who cares, it tells me this could be a record low turnout election"