Regina Construction III

[Drofmab]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

I think it's quite safe to say that less people are going to the movies. I whipped up this graph for my point:

This is simply the North American population compared to box office tickets.

As you can see the trend is going downwards.

You're right - while overall attendance has been stable/growing slightly over the past 35 years, per capita attendance clearly trends downward.

Per capita attendance doesn't appear to be one of the industry's performance metrics, so I'm not sure it's particularly relevant... other than to prove that a smaller portion of the population is going to movies.

As it sits, theatres':
- attendance has been stable for the last 20 years (after growing steadily for the preceding 15yrs);
- their inflation-adjusted box office revenue has been stable for the past 20 years;
- revenue per patron, and per screen is growing; and
- their gross margins are growing slightly

To the discussion at-hand: to add screens (net new) in Regina is unnecessary... I believe we have plenty. But to refresh/replace screens is quite a different discussion. I tend to stay away from Southland (a theatre that is a 5min walk from my house) because the seats are uncomfortable, the theatre set-up is problematic (non-stadium, less legroom), the technology is dated, the concession is mediocre, etc. I drive to Normanview for a better experience.

Of course, I'm a sample size of 1... but I can say that I wouldn't drive across town to go to a movie if Southland were upgraded (not sure how they would upgrade to stadium seating), or a new theatre in the south end/downtown were built.

(a fair argument can be made that if everyone is like me & staying away from Southland/going to Normanview instead, that demonstrates that Normanview has the capacity to handle all of Regina's movie-goers on its own. Or this proves that I'm just too particular, and that most southenders are fine going to the Southland - I'm an exception )

[Festivus]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

I think it's quite safe to say that less people are going to the movies. I whipped up this graph for my point:


This is simply the North American population compared to box office tickets.

As you can see the trend is going downwards.

The way you've presented your data is flawed, however. While ticket sales have been decreasing, ticket revenue has been increasing (due to switch to 3D and rising ticket prices). This means that if there are the same number of screens available (as in Regina's case), there is more money coming in per screen.

I'm not saying that it justifies having more screens, only that ticket sales aren't the sole metric of theatre success. If a theatre could sell a single ticket each year for $1,000,000,000, then they'd be happen with the 99.9% ticket number drop in exchange for the massive increase in revenue.

[BrutallyDishonest2]

Originally Posted by Festivus

The way you've presented your data is flawed, however. While ticket sales have been decreasing, ticket revenue has been increasing (due to switch to 3D and rising ticket prices). This means that if there are the same number of screens available (as in Regina's case), there is more money coming in per screen.

I'm not saying that it justifies having more screens, only that ticket sales aren't the sole metric of theatre success. If a theatre could sell a single ticket each year for $1,000,000,000, then they'd be happen with the 99.9% ticket number drop in exchange for the massive increase in revenue.

The data isn't presented in a flawed way, you're making a different point.

I said less "People are going less, not more" and my data backs up that point. Additionally the ticket revenue, while higher, is not as impressive when adjusted for inflation.

Overall the point is that there is probably very little reason for any cinemas to open in Regina and if they did they won't want to be downtown despite everyone getting excited about it.

[Drofmab]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

The data isn't presented in a flawed way, you're making a different point.

I said less "People are going less, not more" and my data backs up that point. Additionally the ticket revenue, while higher, is not as impressive when adjusted for inflation.

Overall the point is that there is probably very little reason for any cinemas to open in Regina and if they did they won't want to be downtown despite everyone getting excited about it.

I agree with all of the points above (assuming you mean "very little reason for any [net new] cinemas to open in Regina," - as I noted before, I can see reason for Cineplex to completely gut & upgrade Southland, or close it & open a new south/se theatre)

Especially the downtown point - it's simply not going to happen.

[one_brick_at_a_time]

Any photo updates of the superstore at golden mile?

[mitchellk12]

Originally Posted by one_brick_at_a_time

Any photo updates of the superstore at golden mile?

i think its still an EF right now, i believe opening date for the SS is 2017? since i work for EF i havent heard of the EF closure yet....but i know from other people the whole mall is torn down right now am i right? the SS is a great idea for that location too. itll do well.

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by mitchellk12

i think its still an EF right now, i believe opening date for the SS is 2017? since i work for EF i havent heard of the EF closure yet....but i know from other people the whole mall is torn down right now am i right? the SS is a great idea for that location too. itll do well.

I was at EF the other day. The steel is up for the Superstore.

[Regina Boi]

Originally Posted by djforsberg

From the couple times I went to that new Goodlife Fitness, I got the feeling the Superstore development is going a little slow.

I was looking at leasing there a few months ago, and they assured me that the bay I was interested in would be available for a May 2017 possession. I would agree that based on what I see, that would be highly unlikely.

Surprisingly, I ended up going with Harvard and will be moving into the new Urban District in Grasslands. Harvard had much better terms than OneREIT.

[BrutallyDishonest2]

Originally Posted by Regina Boi

I was looking at leasing there a few months ago, and they assured me that the bay I was interested in would be available for a May 2017 possession. I would agree that based on what I see, that would be highly unlikely.

Surprisingly, I ended up going with Harvard and will be moving into the new Urban District in Grasslands. Harvard had much better terms than OneREIT.

You'll have to to let us know how you do out there because I've heard a fair amount of tenants are struggling in Grasslands.

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

You'll have to to let us know how you do out there because I've heard a fair amount of tenants are struggling in Grasslands.

Really? It seems incredibly busy and still growing.

I know there are nationals like Jones New York who are going though bankruptcy, but that has nothing to do with Grasslands.

[Stormer]

Leg tower crane is coming down. Do we have any left? What was the peak, 9? Are they gone from the Sewage Treatment Plant? Edit no Cranes at EPCOR plant:

[Lutz]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

The data isn't presented in a flawed way, you're making a different point.

I said less "People are going less, not more" and my data backs up that point. Additionally the ticket revenue, while higher, is not as impressive when adjusted for inflation.

Found this news article interesting considering the recent discussion..

Cineplex Inc. endured a 72 per cent plunge in second-quarter profit as a weaker film slate anchored by the latest Captain America release proved a let-down, but premium movie tickets continued to drive higher average spending on tickets and snacks.

Total attendance for the three months that ended June 30 was 16.9 million, down 14.4 per cent from a year earlier. That was actually slightly better than analysts had predicted, after the performance of the top films was weaker than expected.

Source: http://www.bnn.ca/blockbusters-let-cineplex-down-as-q2-profit-plunges-72-1.543863

It may be only one company but it gives a glimpse into the industry for sure.

[thefourthtower]

Originally Posted by Stormer

Leg tower crane is coming down. Do we have any left? What was the peak, 9? Are they gone from the Sewage Treatment Plant? Edit no Cranes at EPCOR plant:

Capital Pointe will get a tower crane soon

[Treesplease]

Originally Posted by Stormer

Leg tower crane is coming down. Do we have any left? What was the peak, 9? Are they gone from the Sewage Treatment Plant? Edit no Cranes at EPCOR plant:

Is the water treatment plant just about done? Is there no roof or enclosure on the main building?

[Stormer]

Originally Posted by Treesplease

Is the water treatment plant just about done? Is there no roof or enclosure on the main building?

Dec. substantial completion. There is a building in the background:



Source: EPCOR

[Regina Boi]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

You'll have to to let us know how you do out there because I've heard a fair amount of tenants are struggling in Grasslands.

I'm not sure where you get your information from. I've talked to many of the owners and managers of businesses in Grasslands, and not one of them indicated that.

I'm sure if that was the case, we wouldn't still be seeing major tenants such as Winners/Homesense, Browns Social House, ect setting up there. Furthermore, while I obviously can't release any information at this point. I know every business that has leased in my building. I'm fairly confident as most of them are national and international brands, they would have done their homework before signing leases.

[BrutallyDishonest2]

Originally Posted by Regina Boi

I'm not sure where you get your information from. I've talked to many of the owners and managers of businesses in Grasslands, and not one of them indicated that.

I'm sure if that was the case, we wouldn't still be seeing major tenants such as Winners/Homesense, Browns Social House, ect setting up there. Furthermore, while I obviously can't release any information at this point. I know every business that has leased in my building. I'm fairly confident as most of them are national and international brands, they would have done their homework before signing leases.

I get my information from good places. The rent in Grasslands is the highest in the city excepting shopping malls and the traffic has been below expectations. Yes it will increase over time, but the east still out-performs by far. I guarantee you the Marshall's numbers are not impressive at all but as an international brand they can afford to under-perform in the hopes that sales increase over time.

One hair salon already closed and a number of the fast food outlets have been under performing. And you overestimate the due diligence that many tenants due when signing on to new areas. There's not much data to use so most of the ideas are speculative and hopeful.

[BrutallyDishonest2]

Originally Posted by Stormer

Really? It seems incredibly busy and still growing.

I know there are nationals like Jones New York who are going though bankruptcy, but that has nothing to do with Grasslands.

I think the mistake people are making is looking at the Great Canadian Brewhouse or Walmart and assuming everyone's getting that traffic.

[skphc08]

Originally Posted by BrutallyDishonest2

I get my information from good places. The rent in Grasslands is the highest in the city excepting shopping malls and the traffic has been below expectations. Yes it will increase over time, but the east still out-performs by far. I guarantee you the Marshall's numbers are not impressive at all but as an international brand they can afford to under-perform in the hopes that sales increase over time.

One hair salon already closed and a number of the fast food outlets have been under performing. And you overestimate the due diligence that many tenants due when signing on to new areas. There's not much data to use so most of the ideas are speculative and hopeful.

Which fast food restaurants in particular are underperforming?

I am running a successful business in HL and while rent may be relatively high compared to the rest of the city the sentiment you have expressed has not been echoed by any of the businesses I have spoke to in the area. Business is good, generally.

[jigglysquishy]

Didn't Reitmans just close citing low traffic in the area?