Quote:
Originally Posted by tuffyy
I don't see why not, we just added Southwest in CUN in the last week and a bit and when talking to the guys about Canada they said they see lots of potential, OAK-YVR is one route that's gaining serious momentum as a potential launch route.
So the talk about Canada is a reality, just when and how is the ticket.
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Is the Southwest launch there a new launch or a transfer from Air Tran? And I also understand they are going to expand to 5 destinations within a few months and about 8 daily flights.
The only reason I ask is Southwest's (current) business model is they usually launch a new city with a minimum of 5 daily flights. And as pointed out by Cage they have a unique ground handling set up that requires dedicated gates etc. There were some other issues as well, but too lazy to go back and read them.
My concern with Canada is they would be unlikely to launch a city with just one or two flights per day. So like I say they generally go in big or don't at all. And longer thinner routes routes wreck havoc on their yields.
Really rethinking their strategy, I really don't see very many cities in Canada with enough transborder traffic that would suit their model. I am sure there is a lot of potential in Canada but when they really sit down and crunch their numbers they will find limited opportunities. I'm not saying it's impossible but I would be surprised if they actually did launch Canada for at least a few more years. Also remembering their smallest plane seats about 140 pax. They don't have any Express size aircraft to suit the smaller thinner markets.
YYZ by far the largest market, but costs, AC and Porter would be huge barriers to entry.
YVR with rouge ramping up and a fairly diversified network and really only LA and SF areas large enough.
YYC with Westjet's base (unless they do somehow retry an alliance with Southwest of some sort) be tough other than say HOU.
YUL don't really know.
YEG despite its growth in % terms it seems to be struggling with its current flights, UA and DL cutting frequencies/capacity this winter. Bright spot being AA with the new DFW and soon to start LAX flight. But quite Express oriented.
As for the rest, doesn't leave many opportunities.