Metro Vancouver Transit Discussion II

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

I don't know why I thought that a faltering economy, rising unemployment, a shrinking population, an erosion of 2 key rider demographics, and higher fares would result in lower ridership.

Amazing, almost every word of what you just said was wrong - the only thing that's changed is the fares.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

Amazing, almost every word of what you just said was wrong - the only thing that's changed is the fares.

I think he may be projecting worries about the future, and I can't really fault him for that...

[logicbomb]

Originally Posted by Tvisforme

That might be out of date since the report is from January 2024. IIRC there were reductions in the immigration targets last year.

I can assure you these reductions will make zero difference. There's a whole ton of undocumented migrants and asylum seekers entering the province/country each day in addition to international students/TFW's and an expanded family reunification program. You also have most "students" who have dropped out or completed their program defying orders with no real legal repercussions unless they commit a crime.

The federal government will likely turn on the taps again using various backdoor methods to reel more people in when they secure the election.

Let's stop using the lack of insane growth that was previously 1.5mil+ per year as a reason why Translink is suffering.

I'm a property owner of 5 properties but the Mayors really need to up property taxes for large SFH properties. This is a major reason why municipalities are broke and struggling to maintain or upgrade infrastructure. Transit, road networks and recreational facilities need to be upgraded asap.

[Tvisforme]

Originally Posted by logicbomb

I can assure you these reductions will make zero difference...

Originally Posted by logicbomb

...Let's stop using the lack of insane growth that was previously 1.5mil+ per year as a reason why Translink is suffering...

Just to be clear, I was only suggesting that the projections for 2046 may need to be reworked, and not that these changes to immigration were responsible for TransLink's current fiscal situation.

[Migrant_Coconut]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I think he may be projecting worries about the future, and I can't really fault him for that...

I mean, there's worrying about the deficit, and then there's going on a doomer/declinist tangent just because TransLink won't build Rail for the Valley.

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I mean, there's worrying about the deficit, and then there's going on a doomer/declinist tangent just because TransLink won't build Rail for the Valley.

I'm more worried about how what's going on south of the border will impact us. That seems more likely to me to affect Translink ridership than immigration quotas.

[Migrant_Coconut]

I mean, TransLink doesn't import much from the States... and if they invade, an operating deficit is the least of anybody's concern.

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I mean, TransLink doesn't import much from the States... and if they invade, an operating deficit is the least of anybody's concern.

They seem to favour importing (and exporting) CEOs with the US, (recently only those called Kevin).

The likely recession which will be thanks to the impact of US economic 'policy' will no doubt impact most Canadian cities, and their transit systems. BC is expected to have less of a hit than most eastern provinces, so other transit systems will probably face even greater challenges. Alberta sees the greatest impact, so although Calgary has seen an even better return to pre-covid ridership than Vancouver, that may not continue in the immediate future. BC Transit has seen fewer riders, and faces greater financial challenges. It remains to be seen how soon, and to what degree the Province bails out transit in BC, but it's unlikely they'll allow dramatic cuts to service, especially as they're substaintially funding the new capital investments.

[chowhou]

Who knows, in the fun world of a trade war with the US perhaps we'll be left in a situation where people can't buy cars or gasoline without paying huge tariffs and transit usage goes up!

[aberdeen5698]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

I mean, TransLink doesn't import much from the States... and if they invade, an operating deficit is the least of anybody's concern.

I'm not worried about that, I'm more concerned that reciprocal tariffs will tank the economy and put people out of jobs. If that happens, it's not going to be good for Translink's ridership. That kind of thing could easily dwarf the impact of reduced immigrants.

[jollyburger]

Originally Posted by aberdeen5698

I'm not worried about that, I'm more concerned that reciprocal tariffs will tank the economy and put people out of jobs. If that happens, it's not going to be good for Translink's ridership. That kind of thing could easily dwarf the impact of reduced immigrants.

Exactly transit is just infrastructure and is totally dependent on the health of the economy.

[cganuelas1995]

Would automating the busses help?

[CanSpice]

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

Would automating the busses help?

No.

[cganuelas1995]

How about a rideshare program?

[Changing City]

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

How about a rideshare program?

There are at least two apps for carpooling (rideshare) organisations that include Vancouver, both for one-off trips or commuting. They're on Translink's website.

[Migrant_Coconut]

An "official" TransLink rideshare would simply end up poaching from the buses - it really only makes sense for replacing bus routes that go through undensifiable areas with just a few hundred riders a day.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut

An "official" TransLink rideshare would simply end up poaching from the buses - it really only makes sense for replacing bus routes that go through undensifiable areas with just a few hundred riders a day.

Probably be a great supplement for the nightbus

[GMD]

Originally Posted by cganuelas1995

Would automating the busses help?

The bus driver salary makes up a decent portion of the operating cost of a bus route, especially for low ridership routes, so it would certainly help if it was feasible and not cost prohibitive. But the fact that no transit agency anywhere in the world is running automated bus lines suggests that it is not feasible at this time.

[cganuelas1995]

Originally Posted by GMD

The bus driver salary makes up a decent portion of the operating cost of a bus route, especially for low ridership routes, so it would certainly help if it was feasible and not cost prohibitive. But the fact that no transit agency anywhere in the world is running automated bus lines suggests that it is not feasible at this time.

Not to mention that I don't think the unions would be too happy about it unless they transformed the role into a hybrid of operating the bus when automation cannot and assisting passengers

[ilikeredheads]

fully automated bus is not going to happen. The roads are a chaotic, uncontrolled environment. Too many variables to overcome.

Even Apple scrapped its FSD project after spending billions and a decade on it, because it is simply unfeasible.