Canadian Federal Election

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Takeoff

Interesting poll as liaison strategies has liberals opening up an 8pt lead over the conservatives.

I just saw that. Two different opinions. Both are LPC majorities though.

[samne]

Polymarket. Biggest lead yet for Carney.

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Carney:63%
Poilievre: 37%


https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1743256436534



Carney kissed the ring and got the Trump Bump.

[Djeffery]

"Kiss the ring" is a strange way to say "Acted like a Prime Minister should"

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Acajack

What can I say. I’ve had the best professor.

nope. I did. Because nobody, and I mean nobody, spends more of their time posting on SSP, as you do.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by samne

Polymarket. Biggest lead yet for Carney.

Next Prime Minister of Canada after the election?

Carney:63%
Poilievre: 37%


https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minster-of-canada?tid=1743256436534



Carney kissed the ring and got the Trump Bump.

More like Poilievre kissed the ring and got the Trump Dump.

[Marty_Mcfly]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Mainstreet Poll has the race continuing to tighten with the LPC only leading by 2.7 points nationally. This is down from a 6 point spread when the writ was dropped last Sunday. If this trajectory continues, CPC will be leading by end of next week.

Now its worth noting due to vote distribution, the CPC would need to lead by at least 3 points before they have a hope in hell at forming a minority government, and lead by 5+ points for a majority.

LPC can form a thin majority with a tie vote.

Yeah even with a close race the regionals in all the Mainstreet rolling polls are pretty dire for the CPC. They are showing competitive races in both BC and Atlantic Canada so that's worth keeping an eye on. If the NDP and/or BQ can start gaining back support then the Mainstreet numbers would be pretty positive for the CPC.

Originally Posted by Takeoff

Interesting poll as liaison strategies has liberals opening up an 8pt lead over the conservatives.

Liason's rolling polls have been mostly consistent for the first week, which is interesting as you'd expect an occasional blip somewhere along the way. It is worth noting that this is Liason's first federal election so we'll see how they perform. Their track record for provincial races appears to be pretty good though.

Originally Posted by Drybrain

It could be a narrowing, but the movement is small enough that it could also be results bouncing around within the margin of error.

I also wonder if there will be some boost to the liberals from A: Carney’s tough talk on the U.S. on Thursday, followed by what appears to be actual progress with Trump on Friday.

Both Mainstreet and Liason's daily moves fall within their MOE's so yeah you really can't take much out of it.

I'm not really sure how much higher than LPC vote share can go though. I would imagine there's a ceiling around 45-47%; how much more NDP/BQ support can you siphon off before both parties are just left with their core, floor-level supporters? And for the remaining CPC support, it really hasn't moved a whole lot over the past couple of weeks. Are the CPC sort of just left with its own core of voters now? If there's no dip in CPC support this week then I can't see any situation where they lose it later.

[samne]

Elbows down and knees down

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Mainstreet Poll has the race continuing to tighten with the LPC only leading by 2.7 points nationally. This is down from a 6 point spread when the writ was dropped last Sunday. If this trajectory continues, CPC will be leading by end of next week.

That is only one polling company. Liaison, Leger, Pallas, Abacus, Angus Reid, Ekos, Innovative Research, etc. all have the Liberals widening their lead. Not only that, but internal Ontario polling from the Ford camp, has the Liberals up big in Ontario (49-33).

If the Liberal destroy the CPC in Ontario and Quebec, the election will be over, before the Western Canada results are in.

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by samne

Elbows down and knees down

That's Danielle Smith's slogan.

[flar]

Originally Posted by samne

Elbows down and knees down

Remember when Putin endorsed Kamala? You rubes are so easily manipulated, lol

[casper]

Originally Posted by samne

Elbows down and knees down

Keep in mind Daniel Smith does not represent most Canadians.

Most of us are with Carney.

After some pointed chirps from both side and some roughing in the corner the Americans know enforcer Carney had to slip out for a few minutes to do some campaigning, but starting on the 29th he is going to be all laced up and the Americans will be called out. The American are now playing a week game almost afraid of being on the ice.

[BlackDog204]

Jenni Byrne tossed from Stephen Harper's inner circle


October 20,2015

As far back as Thursday, campaign manager Jenni Byrne was packing up her office in the Ottawa party war room. In a sign of how tense things have become inside Harper's circle, Byrne was not in Calgary on election night, and is out of a job as of Monday morning.

During the campaign, sources say longstanding friction between Byrne and campaign director Guy Giorno just became worse, and the two strong personalities clashed on elements of the campaign. One insider said Byrne refused to hand over a list of candidate contact details to Giorno in the final days.

Eventually, their hostility spilled over into bad blood between Byrne and Novak, who is the person Harper trusts the most. "There's a tremendous amount of antipathy towards her on the part of the leader," said one source."You don't run a campaign by surrounding yourself by sycophants, interns and family members," grumbled another.

source: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-election-2015-jenni-byrne-tossed-1.3280702

---
why was Byrne allowed to manage the last 3 CPC campaigns, if there were so many problems in 2015, that Harper fired her days from the election?

[missing_middle]

CBC gets away with biases in a lot of "ad hoc determinations"...for instance the determination and prioritization of when to carry live remarks from the leaders...

[savevp]

After the entirely unprovoked instance of shooting themselves in the foot, appropriately over gun control, that costed us an O'Toole ministry, Jenni Byrne should have been tossed far from Tory party headquarters.

Her campaigns have thrice failed to present an attractive, positive message. And now the Conservatives are once again attempting to spread the populist-right message that continually fails to get them elected. It's as though they speak only to Grande Prairie and never to Toronto or Halifax - this time in style even if they've moderated some of the substance. For the sake of the party, the Tories need to chuck her and find a competent campaign manager.

[MonctonRad]

Current CBC Poll Tracker. 29/03/2025

LPC - 41.2%, 190 seats (majority government)
CPC - 37.6%, 125 seats
BLQ - 6.1%, 23 seats
NDP - 8.9%, 4 seats (loses official party status}
GRN - 2.9%, 1 seat
PPC - 2.2%, 0 seats

- Liberals are now up to 190 seats. Will they reach a 200 seat supermajority???
- Conservatives must be becoming increasingly desperate now. Where are those photos of Carney kicking a small dog???
- Bloc basically down to their core ridings now
- NDP flirting with political oblivion. So long Jagmeet.
- Green may be reduced to only Elizabeth May now.
- PPC, who really cares...........

[MolsonExport]

Conservatives must be becoming increasingly desperate now.

Where are those photos of Carney with his wife's sister's acquaintance???

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by missing_middle

CBC gets away with biases in a lot of "ad hoc determinations"...for instance the determination and prioritization of when to carry live remarks from the leaders...

I’m sure it doesn’t help to boot them off your plane while you travel around the country.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Where are those photos of Carney with his wife's sister's acquaintance???

The Conservatives are busy having them professionally photoshopped with AI. Be patient.............

[Wigs]

Poilievre only had "popularity" because of how unpopular PM Trudeau was.

Now that Carney is the Liberal leader, Poilievre's time as Opposition leader is likely coming to an abrupt end if and when he loses.

Three word slogans is not leadership.

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Current CBC Poll Tracker. 29/03/2025

LPC - 41.2%, 190 seats (majority government)
CPC - 37.6%, 125 seats
BLQ - 6.1%, 23 seats
NDP - 8.9%, 4 seats (loses official party status}
GRN - 2.9%, 1 seat
PPC - 2.2%, 0 seats

- Liberals are now up to 190 seats. Will they reach a 200 seat supermajority???
- Conservatives must be becoming increasingly desperate now. Where are those photos of Carney kicking a small dog???
- Bloc basically down to their core ridings now
- NDP flirting with political oblivion. So long Jagmeet.
- Green may be reduced to only Elizabeth May now.
- PPC, who really cares...........

The Liberals should be wary of being too cocky. Trump is so unpredictable he could try some stunt to pull the rug out from Carney a week before the vote.