Canadian Federal Election

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by q12

https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-...tems-confiscated-from-poilievre-rallies/

LOL I was just going to post that article. Wise move by Poilievre. The last thing he needs, is for a bunch of MAGA supporters dressed in red hats to get filmed at his rallies.

[Hecate]

Originally Posted by q12

https://www.ctvnews.ca/federal-election-...tems-confiscated-from-poilievre-rallies/

lol three hats… 3

Vs helping the Nazi buy Twitter.

[BlackDog204]

‘The wheels are off’: Senior Conservatives think the Poilievre campaign needs a reset

“I can’t think of a Conservative campaign that’s seen the wheels come off so fast and so hard and so early. (Thursday was) Day Four, and everyone is already running around with their hair on fire,” said a third source, a veteran of numerous federal campaigns.

“They did not prepare. The ground game is a complete and utter mess,” the source added, referring to the campaign’s organization and communication with local candidates.

The Conservative campaign has a strict hierarchy, with Poilievre at the top, Byrne as his chief adviser, and then everyone else. Multiple sources said the leadership has declined outside help and advice despite its flagging fortunes in national polling.

source; https://globalnews.ca/news/11103509/wheels-off-conservatives-think-poilievre-needs-reset/

----

what a Trainwreck. If Poilievre, and his campaign manager are declining all help and advice from the Ford campaign people (who won a huge majority), and would rather throw shade on them, it's obvious that the whole party is completely dysfunctional.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by samne

Looks like Dictator Trump likes and is selecting Carney. What do the Elbows Up Crowd think now?

He's probably saying good things about Carney because if he said bad things then Carney would gain even more support. He doesn't know Canadians very well and probably thinks that him complimenting Carney will hurt Carney politically.

[MolsonExport]

Gold from the CE forum:

Originally Posted by q12

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I have acknowledged a whole bunch of them, but yes I am a party-pooper.

Rave on dudes!

That's rather scatological of you.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

Trump and MAGA definitely wanted Poilievre to win the election. Every single pro-Trump celebrity has endorsed him in the last few months:

Ben Shapiro
Alex Jones
Joe Rogan
Kevin O'Leary
Danielle Smith
Elon Musk
Jordan Peterson
Liz Truss
etc..

Trump may have accepted the fact that the Liberals are going to win the election. Either that, or his inner circle told him to be friendly to Carney.

Trump can only align himself with "winners". Hence his comments, including the "good candidates will win" comment. He will claim influence whoever wins.

[Djeffery]

LOL at the conservatives trying to make today's call with Trump a negative for Carney and a win for them. "Governor Trudeau" is one level of disrespect, which actually brought JT's approval ratings up. Trump hasn't even said Pierre's name (probably not only just because he can't pronounce it, similar to Kevin O'Leary on CNN), he just has no respect, or thought about Pierre. Already assuming he will lose the election. Sorry, that's not a win, I don't care how you try to spin it. This isn't 4D chess from Trump.

Carney kept Trump on silent for 2 complete weeks as PM, and when he finally agreed to talk to Trump, he likely insisted no Governor or 51st State crap and Trump agreed. They each put our professional statements after the talk.

It wouldn't shock me that by Monday, we see Trump pause once again with the tariffs for another month pending the outcome of the election. The if Carney wins, he will pause them for another month for negotiations hinted at today. Maybe by June, he will put the tariffs back on the table to put pressure on the talks, by which time, the auto companies will be slowing down like they usually do in the summer, they will have stocked up across the borders ahead of time, and just simply shut down for a month or so. Then a new USMCA will magically come together with some changes to a few terms, like the dairy tariffs that they don't pay anyway because American dairy farmers don't even hit their quota now, let alone reach the tariff trigger point. Trump needs to come out of this looking like a winner, even if he isn't, but if he gets something he can tweet about and feed some shit to his believers, we can get on with life and whatever the next chaos will be.

[whatnext]

The Liberal Party: "Foreign interference, what foreign interference?"

GTA Liberal candidate apologizes for suggesting people claim China's bounty on Conservative
Conservatives are callng on Paul Chiang to be dropped as a Liberal candidate
Darren Major · CBC News · Posted: Mar 28, 2025

A Liberal candidate running for re-election in a battleground GTA riding is apologizing after suggesting people attempt to claim a Chinese bounty on a local Conservative candidate.

Paul Chiang — the Liberal candidate for Markham-Unionville — suggested during a local Chinese-language media news conference in January that people should claim the bounty on Joe Tay — currently running for the Conservatives in the Toronto riding of Don Valley North.

"To everyone here, you can claim the one-million-dollar bounty if you bring him to Toronto's Chinese consulate," Chiang said, according to the Toronto Association for Democracy in China (TADC)...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-paul-chiang-bounty-joe-tay-conservative-1.7496751

[Docere]

That's some weak "opposition research" by CPC/National Post.

[Hackslack]

Originally Posted by BlackDog204

‘The wheels are off’: Senior Conservatives think the Poilievre campaign needs a reset

“I can’t think of a Conservative campaign that’s seen the wheels come off so fast and so hard and so early. (Thursday was) Day Four, and everyone is already running around with their hair on fire,” said a third source, a veteran of numerous federal campaigns.

“They did not prepare. The ground game is a complete and utter mess,” the source added, referring to the campaign’s organization and communication with local candidates.

The Conservative campaign has a strict hierarchy, with Poilievre at the top, Byrne as his chief adviser, and then everyone else. Multiple sources said the leadership has declined outside help and advice despite its flagging fortunes in national polling.

source; https://globalnews.ca/news/11103509/wheels-off-conservatives-think-poilievre-needs-reset/

----

what a Trainwreck. If Poilievre, and his campaign manager are declining all help and advice from the Ford campaign people (who won a huge majority), and would rather throw shade on them, it's obvious that the whole party is completely dysfunctional.

Crazy to think still polling at 37%-38% means the wheels have fallen off… I mean if it were the NDP campaign, ya sure, the wheels have completely fallen off… all it takes is for the NDP supporters to go back to supporting the NDP.

3,000 people at Hamilton campaign rally. 5,500 at Surrey… are those decent numbers at a rally?

[BlackDog204]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

3,000 people at Hamilton campaign rally. 5,500 at Surrey… are those decent numbers at a rally?

Attendance at rallies means nothing. In 2016, Trump filled up 15,000 seat arenas, while Hilary in some cases, could not fill a high school gymnasium. She still won the popular vote. In 2020, Biden did not campaign in front of anyone due to COVID concerns, while Trump still held large rallies of 10,000 people.

It's totally irrelevant. Aside from that, the Conservatives have dropped 10 points, from a high of 48 points in early January. On the contrast, the Liberals have doubled their numbers from 21-22%, to roughly 43% today. This is no evidence this trend is going to reverse itself. You completely ignore the fact that the CPC inner circle have ignored advice from the Ontario PC party (who have proven to be winners), and kept the loser strategy that the CPC camp has done for 10 years.

If you are defending this, or downplaying it in any way, it just goes to show that their supporters are unreasonable just like Poilievre. There is also rumblings that Ford and Poilievre hate each other personally. In spite of that, the Ford camp insiders still attempted to provide advice to the CPC, and it fell on deaf ears.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Crazy to think still polling at 37%-38% means the wheels have fallen off… I mean if it were the NDP campaign, ya sure, the wheels have completely fallen off… all it takes is for the NDP supporters to go back to supporting the NDP.

3,000 people at Hamilton campaign rally. 5,500 at Surrey… are those decent numbers at a rally?

It's not really that hard to draw that many people when there are millions who live in the area.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Hackslack

Crazy to think still polling at 37%-38% means the wheels have fallen off… I mean if it were the NDP campaign, ya sure, the wheels have completely fallen off… all it takes is for the NDP supporters to go back to supporting the NDP.

3,000 people at Hamilton campaign rally. 5,500 at Surrey… are those decent numbers at a rally?

I don't think that there is a safe NDP seat out there right now. But the closest to safe two seats are interestingly the one in Montreal and another in Edmonton.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I don't think that there is a safe NDP seat out there right now. But the closest to safe two seats are interestingly the one in Montreal and another in Edmonton.

Vancouver East district where I live has been steadily NDP since 1997, almost continuously NDP since the 1960s (that's 19 NDP won elections), with only two breaks won by Liberals (If you include then NDP's left-wing predecessor, that record goes back to 1933). In the last election the NDP got 56%, Liberals 18%, Greens at 14%, Conservatives were in 4th place. I am not sure if this is the strongest NDP district in Canada, but it must be close. I'll be surprised if it goes Liberal this time.

[Docere]

The NDP is polling as low as 7% (1993 levels), so no seat is truly safe. That said, Van East is one of their strongest seats.

[travis3000]

New Mainstreet Poll has the race continuing to tighten with the LPC only leading by 2.7 points nationally. This is down from a 6 point spread when the writ was dropped last Sunday. If this trajectory continues, CPC will be leading by end of next week.

Now its worth noting due to vote distribution, the CPC would need to lead by at least 3 points before they have a hope in hell at forming a minority government, and lead by 5+ points for a majority.

LPC can form a thin majority with a tie vote.

[Takeoff]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Mainstreet Poll has the race continuing to tighten with the LPC only leading by 2.7 points nationally. This is down from a 6 point spread when the writ was dropped last Sunday. If this trajectory continues, CPC will be leading by end of next week.

Now its worth noting due to vote distribution, the CPC would need to lead by at least 3 points before they have a hope in hell at forming a minority government, and lead by 5+ points for a majority.

LPC can form a thin majority with a tie vote.

Interesting poll as liaison strategies has liberals opening up an 8pt lead over the conservatives.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

That's rather scatological of you.

What can I say. I’ve had the best professor.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by travis3000

New Mainstreet Poll has the race continuing to tighten with the LPC only leading by 2.7 points nationally. This is down from a 6 point spread when the writ was dropped last Sunday. If this trajectory continues, CPC will be leading by end of next week.

Now its worth noting due to vote distribution, the CPC would need to lead by at least 3 points before they have a hope in hell at forming a minority government, and lead by 5+ points for a majority.

LPC can form a thin majority with a tie vote.

It could be a narrowing, but the movement is small enough that it could also be results bouncing around within the margin of error.

I also wonder if there will be some boost to the liberals from A: Carney’s tough talk on the U.S. on Thursday, followed by what appears to be actual progress with Trump on Friday.