The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[Siriusb]

PEI housing market bucks trend of Atlantic Canada

The Guardian

Prince Edward Island is experiencing a housing boom as a result of leading the region (and the country overall last year) in population growth. There are now more housing units being built on the Island than Newfoundland and Labrador, a province with more than three times the population but in a population in decline. The P.E.I. economy has outperformed the rest of Atlantic Canada over the last decade or so, largely due to steadily increasing population growth. There can be no economic prosperity without population growth.

Despite the spectacular growth in population, particularly over the past four years (+10.5 per cent), that increase has been uneven across P.E.I.

Charlottetown (up 8.3%), and the nearby bedroom communities of Stratford (up 13.5%) and Cornwall (up 6.5%), have been the major beneficiaries. As a result, the population of Queen’s County is growing (now represents 54 per cent of the population), while King’s County and Prince County populations both declined in the most recent census.

[MonctonRad]

There are four cities in the Maritimes with healthy growth rates - Halifax, Charlottetown, Moncton & Fredericton.

[Fischbob]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

There are four cities in the Maritimes with healthy growth rates - Halifax, Charlottetown, Moncton & Fredericton.

The most recent set of population estimates certainly reflects this. Here they are for select CMA/CAs (for 2015-2018, which is the 4 year time period I assume they were referring to in the Guardian article above):

St. John's 1.57%
Charlottetown 10.44%
Halifax 5.51%
Cape Breton -0.84%
Moncton 4.37%
Saint John 1.39%
Fredericton 4.94%

Since I'm a low-key Saint John booster, I'll also point out that while we're not growing as fast as some of the other Atlantic CMA/CAs, we have succeeded in reversing our population decline since its low point in 2015 (conveniently close to Census time ). A lot of people are surprised to hear this, as most of the demographic narratives out there are based on the most recent Census. While the Census gives a more geographically granular look at population change, the numbers themselves are getting a bit stale. Looking forward to seeing what the 2021 Census tells us.

[David_99]

Good to hear! The new 2019 estimate numbers will be available on Feb 13.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Fischbob

The most recent set of population estimates certainly reflects this. Here they are for select CMA/CAs (for 2015-2018, which is the 4 year time period I assume they were referring to in the Guardian article above):

St. John's 1.57%
Charlottetown 10.44%
Halifax 5.51%
Cape Breton -0.84%
Moncton 4.37%
Saint John 1.39%
Fredericton 4.94%

I'm not sure how widely known this is but Canada changed its provincial immigration caps around 2015. Prior to that time, PEI had almost the same cap as NS and NB which were very low compared to MB or SK. As a result population growth figures in Halifax jumped hugely circa 2016 and PEI had high growth for some years before that. The current growth rate (closer to 2% per year and what Charlottetown saw during the full period) is probably the "new normal".

Alberta's economy and interprovincial migration are a factor too but not as much as people think.

[goodgrowth]

Immigration(Admissions of Permanent Residents) Atlantic CMA's

2015:
St. John's 785
Charlottetown 1,095
Halifax 2,730
Fredericton 645
Moncton 850
Saint John 695

2016
St. John's 810
Charlottetown 2,100
Halifax 4,570
Fredericton 1,495
Moncton 1,390
Saint John 1,235

2017
St. John's 815
Charlottetown 2,090
Halifax 3,745
Fredericton 1,380
Moncton 970
Saint John 770

2018
St. John's 1,010
Charlottetown 1,740
Halifax 5,005
Fredericton 1,470
Moncton 1,440
Saint John 835

2019
St. John's 1,290
Charlottetown 1,900
Halifax 6,240
Fredericton 1,570
Moncton 1,915
Saint John 1,035

https://open.canada.ca/data/en/datas...9-9b8aff9b9eda

[KnoxfordGuy]

Good news for last month in NB. The number of people employed in New Brunswick rose by 4,600, bringing total gains over the last 12 months to 5,300 (+1.5%). The unemployment rate in January was unchanged at 7.5%. (Though, maybe I shouldn't post this because it is only the data for one month and people don't like that here )

[JHikka]

Year-over-year unemployment dipped but most importantly the yoy participation rate was unchanged, meaning that even with NB adding thousands of jobs over the past year an equal number of people exited the workforce. Without immigration increases there wouldn't be enough people for the jobs required and the economy would be massively shrinking at this stage.

[MonctonRad]

From Huddle:

Overall Office Vacancy Rate 2019 (2018)

Fredericton - 6.7% (6.8%)
Charlottetown - 7.1% (7.6%)
Moncton - 7.9% (8.0%)
Saint John - 14.1% (19.1%)
Halifax - 14.7% (13.9%)
St. John's - 15.4% (16.8%)

Class A Office Vacancy Rate 2019 (2018)

Moncton - 3.6% (4.2%)
Fredericton - 4.4% (5.8%)
Saint John - 17.0% (16.5%)
Halifax - 18.0% (13.4%)
St. John's - 20.2% (20.1%)

For some reason, Huddle didn't list the Class A office vacancy rate in Charlottetown.

Both Freddy and Moncton need to get cracking on developing some new class A office space........

[Taeolas]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

From Huddle:

Overall Office Vacancy Rate 2019 (2018)

Fredericton - 6.7% (6.8%)
Charlottetown - 7.1% (7.6%)
Moncton - 7.9% (8.0%)
Saint John - 14.1% (19.1%)
Halifax - 14.7% (13.9%)
St. John's - 15.4% (16.8%)

Class A Office Vacancy Rate 2019 (2018)

Moncton - 3.6% (4.2%)
Fredericton - 4.4% (5.8%)
Saint John - 17.0% (16.5%)
Halifax - 18.0% (13.4%)
St. John's - 20.2% (20.1%)

For some reason, Huddle didn't list the Class A office vacancy rate in Charlottetown.

Both Freddy and Moncton need to get cracking on developing some new class A office space........

I guess Freddy is sort've working on it. 2 Major Office blocks being built now (Carleton and Regent), and the Centennial renovations might help a bit. But yeah, we need to get cracking on getting more space built.

The old bus terminal on Regent and King, along with TD Tower 2 are two areas prime for development that could help with the office crunch.

That said, I think Freddy is going to be tapped out for construction this year, with all the major stuff we know in the pipeline, along with all the minor stuff constantly going too. But if an office developer wanted to get ahead of the curve, this would be a great time to get TD Tower 2 or Regent-King going.

[OliverD]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I guess Freddy is sort've working on it. 2 Major Office blocks being built now (Carleton and Regent), and the Centennial renovations might help a bit. But yeah, we need to get cracking on getting more space built.

The old bus terminal on Regent and King, along with TD Tower 2 are two areas prime for development that could help with the office crunch.

That said, I think Freddy is going to be tapped out for construction this year, with all the major stuff we know in the pipeline, along with all the minor stuff constantly going too. But if an office developer wanted to get ahead of the curve, this would be a great time to get TD Tower 2 or Regent-King going.

The only way either is happening is if they sign some tenants. The Centennial Building not being office space may help in this regard.

[JHikka]

New Subprovincial estimates released today:

Province: July 1st, 2019 (change from 2018)
NS: 971,395 (11,895)
NB: 776,827 (5,906)
NL: 521,542 (-4,062)
PEI: 156,947 (3,363)

For New Brunswick:

CMA/CA: July 1st 2019 (change from 2018)
Moncton: 155,825 (3,067)
Saint John: 131,025 (793)
Fredericton: 109,883 (1,923)
Bathurst: 31,683 (64)
Miramichi: 28,000 (28)
Edmundston: 24,052 (47)
Campbellton: 15,992 (-83)

Census Subdivision: July 1st 2019 (change from 2018)
Moncton (City): 77,623 (1,811)
Saint John (City): 70,817 (606)
Fredericton (City): 63,326 (1,175)

Dieppe (City): 27,993 (839)
Riverview (Town): 20,304 (155)
Quispamsis (Town): 18,970 (273)
Tracadie (RGM): 16,308 (-82)
Rothesay (Town): 11,940 (-75)

Oromocto (Town): 9,832 (99)
Shediac (Town): 7,331 (253)
Beaubassin-Est (RCR): 6,787 (27)
Sackville (Town): 5,705 (63)
Woodstock (Town): 5,397 (60)
Grand Falls (Town): 5,228 (8)

Misc. others:

Sussex (Town): 4,406 (59)
Sussex Corner (Village): 1,492 (3)
Sussex & Sussex Corner: 5,898 (62)

Hampton (Town): 4,333 (-32)

Salisbury (P): 3,419 (-1)
Salisbury (V): 2,326 (4)
Petitcodiac (V): 1,433 (12)
Petitcodiac-Salisbury: 7,178 (15)

Cap-Pele (Village): 2,617 (55)
Grand Manan (Village): 2,541 (77)

-----------

I've also tracked NB county populations - counties are, of course, mostly useless in today's world, but they are very useful for tracking regional population shifts. Using the following breakdown we're able to pretty easily track demographic and proportional shifts within the province:

Northwest: Madawaska, Victoria
Northeast: Restigouche, Gloucester, Northumberland
Central: Carleton, York, Sunbury, Queens
South: Charlotte, Saint John, Kings
Southeast: Kent, Albert, Westmorland

Using this breakdown we get the following numbers:
Population, 2019 (change 2015-2019)
Northwest: 51,795 (-584)
Northeast: 155,307 (-1,979)
Central: 172,859 (6,818)
South: 174,172 (2,850)
Southeast: 222,694 (10,880)

Proportion of NB pop, 2019: (change 2015-2019)
Northwest: 6.67% (-0.23%)
Northeast: 19.99% (-0.74%)
Central: 22.25% (+0.37%)
South: 22.42% (-0.16%)
Southeast: 28.67% (+0.76%)

[MonctonRad]

Interesting to see population levels stabilizing in (most) rural towns in the province, as well as the north.

La Peninsule and the Restigouche region remain problem children, but the bleeding has slowed........

[Taeolas]

I saw the stats link in the other thread for the CA/CMA populations, but how do you break it down for other population areas. I'm a bit curious how the towns are doing, to get an idea of who's stable and who's hurting.

Your breakdown for Central is interesting, but it's heavily weighted for Fredericton. Carleton County has been stable if not shrinking a bit, but you can't really see that due to how heavily York is growing basically.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I saw the stats link in the other thread for the CA/CMA populations, but how do you break it down for other population areas. I'm a bit curious how the towns are doing, to get an idea of who's stable and who's hurting.

Your breakdown for Central is interesting, but it's heavily weighted for Fredericton. Carleton County has been stable if not shrinking a bit, but you can't really see that due to how heavily York is growing basically.

According to the report Cape Breton actually had its population bump back up over 100,000 that is nice to see.

[q12]

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1...uest_locale=en

Some big news in these latest population estimates. Halifax grew by about 10,000 people in the last year.

Cape Breton is growing!!!! And is back above 100,000!!!!!

Unfortunately St. John's, NL population declined in the last year.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Taeolas

I saw the stats link in the other thread for the CA/CMA populations, but how do you break it down for other population areas. I'm a bit curious how the towns are doing, to get an idea of who's stable and who's hurting.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...cansim-eng.htm

Subdivision breakdowns (towns, villages, parishes) is at the very bottom under census subdivisions.

I haven't done a deep dive yet on the subdivision numbers but most places are stabilzing. Specific rural places are declining (say, Rogersville) while others have bounced back very slightly (McAdam, as an example).

Originally Posted by Taeolas

Your breakdown for Central is interesting, but it's heavily weighted for Fredericton. Carleton County has been stable if not shrinking a bit, but you can't really see that due to how heavily York is growing basically.

Of course. The regional breakdown i've made is just to look at NB in subregions, effectively. Carleton has been more or less stable (26,623 in 2019, down from 26,710 in 2015) with York growing by six thousand in that same time frame (100,500 -> 106,906). The subregions effectively encircle major population points:

Northwest: Edmundston
Northeast: Campbellton, Bathurst, Miramichi
Central: Fredericton
South: Saint John
Southeast: Moncton

[Taeolas]

Thanks. Looking at the 5000 level to get a feel for towns.

I'm a bit surprised Lincoln is as big as it is, considering it is a glorified suburb of Freddy. It'll be folded into the Freddy CMA regardless, but it's an area we should officially bring into the city too. Douglas is in a similar situation it seems too.

Woodstock is doing okay. Still sluggish, but it did add 60 people so it's not shrinking at least. Grand-Falls is growing even slower, but not losing people at least.

All in all, we're a long way from getting another CA any time soon; Shediac is among the fastest growing, but it'll probably get snagged into the Moncton CMA long before it becomes a CA.

All the more 'independent' towns are in the 5000-6000 range, and only growing by 60ish people a year. (Woodstock, Sussex, Sackville). Granted we do have 7 CMA/CA's for a population of under a million, so I guess we can't be too greedy either.

I think we crashed the Stats Can site; it's stopped responding for me when I tried to add in the Saint John River villages.

[MonctonRad]

This is good news all around. I have never been a fan of concentrating all growth in 3-4 cities in the region. I'm glad to see there is stability, if not slight growth in most regional cities and towns.

[Taeolas]

Looking at things closer, looks like Woodstock is doing better than I first thought.

Woodstock (TV), New Brunswick: 5,397 (5,337) + 62
Woodstock (P), New Brunswick: 2,277 (2,220) +57
Woodstock 23 (IRI) 356 (352) +4

Woodstock (Total): 8030 (7909) +121

That doesn't include Richmond (Richmond's growth was flat but it's a large division) or the Grafton area since those regions are a bit too big, but probably have a few hundred total within Woodstock's main influence.

All told, 6 of NB's 7 cities also grew; Campbellton the forgotten City, is the only one that shrunk (by 83 people), all on the NB side; the Quebec side grew by 25.