City Revival Thread

[CaliNative]

Water. Great Lakes cities. Proximity to Canada. Buffalo. Rochester. Duluth. Burlington. Even Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee. Go north, young man! On the west coast, Bellingham. The sun belt is just too dang hot and parched in the west. The reverse migration back north could take decades, but It should happen. Any disagreement?

[SIGSEGV]

A sensible immigration policy would probably be faster, but eventually South Florida will have a forced migration (can't build a seawall around Miami).

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by SIGSEGV

A sensible immigration policy would probably be faster, but eventually South Florida will have a forced migration (can't build a seawall around Miami).

True, sea level rise will be a factor. Coastal northern cities will be impacted, but the Great Lakes cities will not be. We could be looking at 12 feet of rise if the Greenland ice cap melts or significantly shrinks. This could happen in a few generations. So, Denver looks good I guess.

[LA21st]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

Water. Great Lakes cities. Proximity to Canada. Buffalo. Rochester. Duluth. Burlington. Even Chicago, Detroit, Milwaukee. Go north, young man! On the west coast, Bellingham. The sun belt is just too dang hot and parched in the west. The reverse migration back north could take decades, but It should happen. Any disagreement?

You're forgetting most Americans hate frigid cold. That's why the sunbelt happened. I love Chicago, but I dreaded the winter during October.

The west is suffering in a brutal heat wave, but lets not pretend this crazy level happens all the time. I think it's the hottest stretch in California in 20 years?

[Handro]

Originally Posted by LA21st

You're forgetting most Americans hate frigid cold. That's why the sunbelt happened. I love Chicago, but I dreaded the winter during October.

The west is suffering in a brutal heat wave, but lets not pretend this crazy level happens all the time. I think it's the hottest stretch in California in 20 years?

I'm already dreading winter and it's August. It will take some of the worst climate change prognostications coming true for the southern/westward migration trends to reverse.

[Crawford]

Sorry, I don't think someone in Orange County is gonna move to Ohio because it's hot out for a few days. No way in hell.

[LA21st]

The midwest summers are stuffy too. Humidity in general is more uncomfortable to most people. Leaving the west summers for the midwest summers ain't exactly an improvement. Maybe at the moment, but it's just a moment. I'll take dry heat any day, even if it sucks right now.

[mrnyc]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Sorry, I don't think someone in Orange County is gonna move to Ohio because it's hot out for a few days. No way in hell.

if they did they would definitely move there over michigan.

[urbanadvocate]

It is so hard to predict climate change (prefer this term over global warming). Some models predict after a rise in temp, there being a new ice age that quickly follows (perhaps snow is in the future of Houston and Miami after a period of flooding). Other models have deserts becoming eventual jungles due to weather patterns changing from sea currents changing due to temp changes.

I think people in the west prefer the mountain west over the Midwest (Idaho, Colorado, Utah etc). But if drought and wildfires increase that may change. The west is going thru a brutal heatwave but summers in places like the Central Valley aren't typically that bad--average of 90s with almost no humidity and evenings that dip back down to 60s. This is more than just tolerable for most folks, excluding the fogged in SFers who think anything over 80 might as well be Hades and have a false notion the Valley is over 100 from May-October. Who knows if and how that will change....

[edale]

Originally Posted by urbanadvocate

have a false notion the Valley is over 100 from May-October. Who knows if and how that will change....

The Central Valley is super hot from May to October, though. Also, the two biggest cities there are pretty crappy, with very little in the way of real urban form. Bakersfield is almost entirely suburban, and Fresno isn't much better. The tradeoff between Coastal CA and the Central Valley isn't just limited to weather.

[urbanadvocate]

Originally Posted by edale

The Central Valley is super hot from May to October, though. Also, the two biggest cities there are pretty crappy, with very little in the way of real urban form. Bakersfield is almost entirely suburban, and Fresno isn't much better. The tradeoff between Coastal CA and the Central Valley isn't just limited to weather.

I guess it also depends what you consider the Central Valley. Fresno and Bakersfield are the two biggest cities in the southern half of the valley which is indeed hotter and more dry. But the valley stretches as far north as Redding.

[M II A II R II K]

And the sun belt could become the decaying dust belt in the west.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by M II A II R II K

And the sun belt could become the decaying dust belt in the west.

Probably not, most sunbelt economies are far more diverse and resilient to uncertainties than the Rust Belt was at its peak. My hometown was heavily dependent on manufacturing but was gutted when jobs started moving overseas. It never recovered and the jobs that replaced them were lower level service jobs.

[benp]

My initially dismissive Texas relatives are now in the process of moving up North. I would never have imagined it, I am still amazed. If the economic opportunities are there (they can work from home now) people will follow. There are also a lot of expats who never really wanted to leave in the first place.

[Acajack]

I would surmise that if the Great Lakes cities undergo a renaissance, it won't just be people from the Sunbelt moving there.

If the economy ramps up, they could begin drawing a much greater share of te country's immigrant intake.

Obviously some immigrants do prefer warmer climes, but in my observation if economic conditions are good they don't care about weather as much as the native-born do.

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I would surmise that if the Great Lakes cities undergo a renaissance, it won't just be people from the Sunbelt moving there.

If the economy ramps up, they could begin drawing a much greater share of te country's immigrant intake.

Obviously some immigrants do prefer warmer climes, but in my observation if economic conditions are good they don't care about weather as much as the native-born do.

Yeah, it's the immigration, stupid. There is one Great Lakes city that is proving the point.

[The North One]

It's pretty obvious that climate change will create a massive migration north, but nobody really knows how it's going to happen. The great lakes cities will benefit definitely.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by The North One

It's pretty obvious that climate change will create a massive migration north, but nobody really knows how it's going to happen. The great lakes cities will benefit definitely.

I would say more inland than up north. If Houston started falling into the gulf, people aren't going to up and move to Detroit or Cleveland, they'll likely head to Austin, San Antonio or Dallas. In fact, this is how Houston got its start, a hurricane wiped Galveston out and industry moved more inland.

[The North One]

Originally Posted by JManc

I would say more inland than up north. If Houston started falling into the gulf, people aren't going to up and move to Detroit or Cleveland, they'll likely head to Austin, San Antonio or Dallas. In fact, this is how Houston got its start, a hurricane wiped Galveston out and industry moved more inland.

Never said everybody is gonna do directly to Detroit and Cleveland, the US is a huge country so people have plenty options. Atlanta is and has already benefited greatly from the hurricanes and disasters on the coast, you'll see more of that. You'll see lots of different inland cities winning.

All Texas cities will be dealing with significant climate change hurdles so they're all still at a disadvantage. Whereas great lakes cities will be the least impacted in the entire country. It's an advantage that will play out over the course of decades.

[TexasPlaya]

Originally Posted by The North One

Never said everybody is gonna do directly to Detroit and Cleveland, the US is a huge country so people have plenty options. Atlanta is and has already benefited greatly from the hurricanes and disasters on the coast, you'll see more of that. You'll see lots of different inland cities winning.

All Texas cities will be dealing with significant climate change hurdles so they're all still at a disadvantage. Whereas great lakes cities will be the least impacted in the entire country. It's an advantage that will play out over the course of decades.

Considering Florida's population and economic growth, they haven't gotten the message yet.