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  #7521  
Old Posted Today, 1:51 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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Originally Posted by acottawa View Post
Yeah, it is a dirty trick. It is also a dirty trick by the Liberals to keep teasing him as the next leader without any public interest from Carney or any resignation from Trudeau.
I haven't really seen them tease him as leader. Can you give examples of where the party itself has done that? Most of this seemes like normal political jostling behind the scenes, to me. He did seem interested a year or two ago. I think his interest has waned with the polls.

Nevertheless, is there any precedent for a subpoena like this from the Opposition? And are we all cool making this a norm now?
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  #7522  
Old Posted Today, 2:16 PM
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MonctonRad MonctonRad is online now
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Trudeau Stooge Tells Canadian Physicians To Fuck Off Yet Again!!!

Quote:
Health Minister Mark Holland says while he is “deeply appreciative” of the work doctors in Canada do, the federal government has no plans to scrap the proposed capital gains tax changes outlined in the latest budget, despite opposition from the Canadian Medical Association (CMA).

“I think that these are fair changes, there's still a lot of tax advantages, advantages accrued to them, that will be maintained and continue,” Holland told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos, in an interview airing Sunday.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/heal...stay-1.6864750

The thing is, I have zero faith that JT and the gang are anywhere near finished with changes to the Canadian tax system designed to screw around with personally incorporated professionals. This is about the third change to the tax system since Trudeau became PM specifically (or incidentally) targeting Canadian professionals. There are precious few advantages to incorporation left, but, the costs of maintaining the corporation (legal and accounting fees) remain. I am willing to bet anything that JTs ultimate goal is to eventually increase the capital gains inclusion rate to 100%.

Physicians like myself are screwed. My money is stuck in my corporation. I could sell my stocks and mutual funds now (at the lower rate), but, this would mean paying the tax now rather than later. In either event, JT has probably just cost me about $200,000, decreasing my funded retirement by about 2-3 years. I will counter by working until I am 69 years old.

Those of us already in the system are fucked. My concern is with new physicians just completing residency. If they desire a well funded retirement attainable at a decent age, they very well may consider moving south to an (economically) more sane jurisdiction, where they can work in well equipped hospitals, and in a work environment where their skills and talents are valued and they are considered assets to the hospital (rather than cost centres to be controlled).

I absolutely should have moved to the US in 1995. I now regret changing my mind and staying in Canada.
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  #7523  
Old Posted Today, 2:35 PM
thewave46 thewave46 is online now
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I wouldn't say the economy is absolutely terrible. It's still a lot better today than say the early 90s recession when my family first got to Canada. There were major layoffs announced in the newspaper weekly back then. What we have right now is growing inequality and economic stagnation for some with a really comfortable life for the rest. You're a tad upset by recent changes made to the tax code. It might cost you an extra year or two of work. Imagine how young people in major cities feel where saving for a downpayment will take 20-25 years. And during that time you have no certainty on housing. Your landlord can renovict you anytime. Bad as you have it, young people have it worse. And it's been that way for a very long time.

A lot of the problems we face here are somewhat common across the Western world. They come with an aging population and lower economic growth in general. Ironically, Trudeau has made this worse specifically because he made a choice to prioritized the interests of the wrinkled over the young and in doing so basically can kicked for a decade, only making it worse. The next government is going to have their work cut out for them. Are they willing to make the hard choices necessary?
I agree with this take.

If there’s failings to the Trudeau government, debt and housing are them.

They’re both insidious ways to hurt the young at no cost to the old. It works in the short term.

We traded in economic complexity at the altar of free trade without the intangible defences employed by many other advanced economies that act as bulwarks. At least we still have an auto industry, unlike the Aussies, who are much farther down the ‘resources uber alles’ road. This was a late Chretien to today brainchild.

Housing disproportionately shot up in price relative to the rest of the economy. Great for the establishment, who had their retirement assets padded. Terrible for those on the ground who just needed shelter and had to pay dearly for that so-called ‘privilege’ that previous generations accepted as standard. This started under Martin, ramped up during Harper and went bananas under Trudeau.

Debt bloomed. What was anathema after the painful Chretien years became ‘acceptable during emergencies’ during the Harper years, then ‘standard operating procedure’ under Trudeau. Covid was the great absolute hurrah. Who pays for this? The grandkids, obviously, because we had to increase OAS handouts and spending on healthcare to keep the old happy. They’ll pay that debt with interest.

Someone once posted that societies that favour the old to exclusion of the young become grotesque vampire-like creatures, feeding on their young to keep themselves comfortable. This is what the Western world is evolving into, and Trudeau is just the enabler for Canada.

Play the game until it falls apart. Western decline isn’t going to be some catastrophic event. It’ll be a walking anemic corpse bled out by its own members. But they got theirs. Sorry kids (not really, because if they were, we would not be here now).

A government that would have my attention would be one that pushes back on all these fronts and puts out the message of sacrificing for a better tomorrow.
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  #7524  
Old Posted Today, 2:41 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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If you think Millennials have it bad, just wait till you see the stats for Alphas. Thanks to killing birth rates of Millennials, we've basically recreated China's One Child Policy in Canada. But we did it with market forces instead of forced sterilization and only for Millennials and younger. So Alphas will have to support record numbers of old people who will arrive at retirement with record public and private debt. Of course, change of government won't do squat because the pretenders/aspirants to the throne keep arguing for more can kicking, with different language.
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  #7525  
Old Posted Today, 2:53 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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Originally Posted by thewave46 View Post
Play the game until it falls apart. Western decline isn’t going to be some catastrophic event. It’ll be a walking anemic corpse bled out by its own members. But they got theirs. Sorry kids (not really, because if they were, we would not be here now).

A government that would have my attention would be one that pushes back on all these fronts and puts out the message of sacrificing for a better tomorrow.
Added bonus in Canada is that so much of what we're suffering from is bad provincial and municipal policy that gets covered up by jurisdictional squabbling. There's a lot of premiers and mayors in this country getting a pass for their shit because Trudeau is the hate magnet. Their incompetence and recklessness doesn't go away with Trudeau.
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  #7526  
Old Posted Today, 2:58 PM
thewave46 thewave46 is online now
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
If you think Millennials have it bad, just wait till you see the stats for Alphas. Thanks to killing birth rates of Millennials, we've basically recreated China's One Child Policy in Canada. But we did it with market forces instead of forced sterilization and only for Millennials and younger. So Alphas will have to support record numbers of old people who will arrive at retirement with record public and private debt. Of course, change of government won't do squat because the pretenders/aspirants to the throne keep arguing for more can kicking, with different language.
Hence the Ponzi Scheme of expectations arbitrage. It’s the last castle for Canada and a surprisingly robust one. Other places have stronger resistance to this for reasons.

Bet against the locals via opening the floodgates. Whatever, a few young locals drown in the flood. They weren’t good enough swimmers anyway.

The Brits of yore would be proud of the class society their descendants rebuilt in the New World.
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  #7527  
Old Posted Today, 3:12 PM
OldDartmouthMark OldDartmouthMark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
If you think Millennials have it bad, just wait till you see the stats for Alphas. Thanks to killing birth rates of Millennials, we've basically recreated China's One Child Policy in Canada. But we did it with market forces instead of forced sterilization and only for Millennials and younger. So Alphas will have to support record numbers of old people who will arrive at retirement with record public and private debt. Of course, change of government won't do squat because the pretenders/aspirants to the throne keep arguing for more can kicking, with different language.
This is an interesting take, while simultaneously watching our population explode. While it’s understood that many of the ‘new population’ are not permanent residents, many are. Without data backing this up, are you suggesting that the majority of new population are of ‘the wrinkled contingent’?

Otherwise, your argument doesn’t make sense. Sure, there will be a mountain to climb in paying back the debt rung up by the current generations of politicians, but the concept of supporting record numbers of old people doesn’t add up, unless we are actually importing more older people than younger people currently.

As a solution, what do you propose? How should “Alphas” treat Millennials when they age? All of the boomers and many Xes will be dead and gone by then, and presumably their ‘wealth’ will have been passed on to the Millennials. So what will happen then? Will Millennials fall on the sword to make things better for generations following? Will future governments be able to make the tough choices and screw over the more affluent and powerful older generations at the risk of falling politically? How will this work? These are questions that come to mind whenever I read these discussions.
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  #7528  
Old Posted Today, 3:38 PM
Truenorth00 Truenorth00 is online now
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The population explosion is actually making the problem worse. Most of those students coming to Canada are early Zoomers and late Millennials. Their kids will be Gen Beta (or whatever the Gen after Alpha is called). So they'll have to be supported by mostly Canadian born Alphas who are fewer in number.

The solution? Like I said tough choices. Some of it has to involve much more generational balance now, so that we at least stop the problem from getting worse. This means wholesale reform of programs and OAS and much stricter income qualifications for support programs. And that is needed across the board. For example, we give discount transit passes based on age. Should we change this to income based?

Along the same lines, we also need to talk about sacrifices Millennials have to make for the rest of their cohort and their kids. We probably need inheritance taxes to prevent inequality from getting worse. The Personal Residence Exemption has to be limited.

But the priority has to be the Boomers and older Gen X, because we are literally deficit financing their consumption at the moment. That's not just robbing a dollar from future generations. It's robbing $2-3. Something needs to be done to rein this in.
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  #7529  
Old Posted Today, 3:59 PM
P'tit Renard P'tit Renard is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I wouldn't say the economy is absolutely terrible. It's still a lot better today than say the early 90s recession when my family first got to Canada. There were major layoffs announced in the newspaper weekly back then. What we have right now is growing inequality and economic stagnation for some with a really comfortable life for the rest. You're a tad upset by recent changes made to the tax code. It might cost you an extra year or two of work. Imagine how young people in major cities feel where saving for a downpayment will take 20-25 years. And during that time you have no certainty on housing. Your landlord can renovict you anytime. Bad as you have it, young people have it worse. And it's been that way for a very long time.
One thing to keep in mind is that we're still in the early innings of this downturn. Technically we're still enjoying the "COVID rebound" at the moment and we're not yet in a recession, especially with the US juicing up their economy. In comparison, the early 90s was literally the rock bottom of the economic cycle.

We still have the upcoming mortgage rate renewal cliff coming up, and with US rate cuts being delayed, the economic turbulence going forward will make 2023-2024 look like a breeze. Further currency devaluation, stagflation and more mass layoffs (especially in the bloated banking and real estate sectors) is in the cards.
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  #7530  
Old Posted Today, 4:40 PM
OldDartmouthMark OldDartmouthMark is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
The population explosion is actually making the problem worse. Most of those students coming to Canada are early Zoomers and late Millennials. Their kids will be Gen Beta (or whatever the Gen after Alpha is called). So they'll have to be supported by mostly Canadian born Alphas who are fewer in number.

The solution? Like I said tough choices. Some of it has to involve much more generational balance now, so that we at least stop the problem from getting worse. This means wholesale reform of programs and OAS and much stricter income qualifications for support programs. And that is needed across the board. For example, we give discount transit passes based on age. Should we change this to income based?

Along the same lines, we also need to talk about sacrifices Millennials have to make for the rest of their cohort and their kids. We probably need inheritance taxes to prevent inequality from getting worse. The Personal Residence Exemption has to be limited.

But the priority has to be the Boomers and older Gen X, because we are literally deficit financing their consumption at the moment. That's not just robbing a dollar from future generations. It's robbing $2-3. Something needs to be done to rein this in.
I think this is a fair take on it, generally. I still am left with the question (referring to the bolded quote) of what needs to be done?

It seems that a large part of this is related to housing. It is logical that the people who were able to buy in before the massive increase in housing costs kicked in are in better shape on paper, however unless you own more residences than you are actually living in, it doesn't really make their situation better. Perhaps if they are cashing out to move to a senior's residence or nursing home... but let's be honest, by then life as they know it is basically over and they are just passing time while their health and mental acuity declines (this may sound cold, but I have experienced this with older family members and none of it is pretty). So, unless you were in the position to buy investment properties when they were cheap, you're not really riding a wave of wealth and prosperity, because if you cash in, you still have to live somewhere, which means buying an equally inflated house or condo, with increased GST, transfer tax, real estate fees, etc. If you're selling to rent, your "windfall" will decrease at the same rate as it would have if you had previously sold at a lower price and rented at pre-crazy rates.

Anyhow... now that we've established that, I wonder if this is a generational thing, or just a 'time in history' thing. i.e. Most here, I think, agree that housing costs are directly related to supply and demand. It appears that the trend, country-wide, is to increase supply at almost unprecedented rates, so logically doesn't that mean that prices should come down eventually... especially if the temporary immigration crisis is cut off? In which case, wouldn't we expect that in, perhaps, 10 years that things will be better for the younger generation? Of course it's much more complex than that, but this is assuming that a future government will make more sound financial decisions than the current crop of 'leaders'... which has to happen as our current situation is unsustainable.

I say this in all sincerity. Perhaps I'm just not seeing this as clearly as others, but there does seem to be potential for light at the end of the tunnel.
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  #7531  
Old Posted Today, 4:59 PM
thewave46 thewave46 is online now
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The light at the end of the tunnel can either be a freight train or sunlit lands.

Sunlit lands just requires active but difficult choices. The freight train is the easier path in the short-term.

The path to sunlit lands requires government to run in long-term fiscal balance with respect to demographics, housing to deviate back to historical trend line of affordability, and an industrial policy that serves to advance the strategic economic interests of Canada.

Sure, one has to be in the darkness for longer to get to sunlit lands, but the easier road is easier if one doesn’t have to worry about the freight train at the end.

Choo-choo.
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  #7532  
Old Posted Today, 5:01 PM
casper casper is online now
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Originally Posted by OldDartmouthMark View Post
I say this in all sincerity. Perhaps I'm just not seeing this as clearly as others, but there does seem to be potential for light at the end of the tunnel.
I think this is a transitionary phase.

Vancouver is landlocked by geography. A single family home with a yard is a $2M asset. If you go our to Surrey or another suburban area that is not attainable for the average middle class family. It is going to be less attainable with new zoning that has come in that has much of the existing single family lots zoned for multi-family. The expectation should be if your living in that area your going to raise your kids in a multi-family home. The same expectation exists in much of Europe and many cities in Asia. It is just not the North American "dream". Europeans have been able successful living in dense cities for a long time.

In Victoria, Calgary, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Halifax etc. that dream is still achievable. Urban sprawl is still possible.

The fact a condo or townhome is also expensive is a problem that needs to be corrected.

Quote:
Originally Posted by P'tit Renard View Post
We still have the upcoming mortgage rate renewal cliff coming up, and with US rate cuts being delayed, the economic turbulence going forward will make 2023-2024 look like a breeze. Further currency devaluation, stagflation and more mass layoffs (especially in the bloated banking and real estate sectors) is in the cards.
I don't think we are going to see massive disruption to individuals from the mortgage rate renewal cliff. The government has changed the rules and is likely encourage the banks to show flexibility at renewal. Some people are going to end up with crappy mortgages that have them extending repayment out to retirement. That said, those mortgages will come up for renewal again in a few years.

Where I think we are going to see massive problems is with developers. Some of those guys have purchased extremely expensive land, they have much higher construction labour and material costs and the selling price for their units are soft. They are not getting the pre-sales they were expecting. That is where we may see some significant losses. There is already grumbling that some of those projects that have not broken ground are in trouble.

Good thing the feds are stepping in.

Last edited by casper; Today at 5:11 PM.
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  #7533  
Old Posted Today, 5:12 PM
acottawa acottawa is online now
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post

Nevertheless, is there any precedent for a subpoena like this from the Opposition? And are we all cool making this a norm now?
David Dodge testified at the committee last year.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/dav...bender-is-over
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  #7534  
Old Posted Today, 5:14 PM
whatnext whatnext is online now
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Originally Posted by Truenorth00 View Post
I haven't really seen them tease him as leader. Can you give examples of where the party itself has done that? Most of this seemes like normal political jostling behind the scenes, to me. He did seem interested a year or two ago. I think his interest has waned with the polls.

Nevertheless, is there any precedent for a subpoena like this from the Opposition? And are we all cool making this a norm now?
Mark Carney is intelligent and probably knows more about how the economy works than most of our PMs or even Finance Ministers ever have. However he’s about as exciting as unbuttered toast. He’d be ignatieffed by the opposition in no time.
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  #7535  
Old Posted Today, 5:36 PM
YOWetal YOWetal is online now
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Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Mark Carney is intelligent and probably knows more about how the economy works than most of our PMs or even Finance Ministers ever have. However he’s about as exciting as unbuttered toast. He’d be ignatieffed by the opposition in no time.
Harper was boring. By 2029 we might be ready for boring and steady. 2025 election is foregone conclusion.
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