California reports first ever yearly population decline

[DCReid]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

Has California reached its peak and is now on New York's path of relative slow or no-existent growth, or maybe decline?

[bnk]

Pretty significant one year trajectory.


https://www.thecentersquare.com/cali...94dd6b1be.html

In 2020, California saw a net loss of 182,083 people and a net exodus of 310,918 people.


From 2010 to 2020, about 6.1 million people left California for other states compared to about 4.9 million people who moved to California from other states

[JManc]

Originally Posted by bnk

Pretty significant one year trajectory.


https://www.thecentersquare.com/cali...94dd6b1be.html

In 2020, California saw a net loss of 182,083 people and a net exodus of 310,918 people.


From 2010 to 2020, about 6.1 million people left California for other states compared to about 4.9 million people who moved to California from other states

Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?

[bnk]

Originally Posted by JManc

Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?

That's what the OP link stated.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

[eschaton]

We won't really know for sure for awhile, but the 2020 census results suggest the ACS data this decade was garbage...which would include this annual estimate.

[dimondpark]

Originally Posted by JManc

Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?

That's really not unusual. Approximately 400,000 people move out of Texas annually as well. It's just that TX happens to gain more inbound than outbound whereas CA is the other way around.

It's a common misconception that people are no longer moving to California-in fact nearly 5 milliion did just that in the last decade.

[JManc]

Originally Posted by dimondpark

That's really not unusual. Approximately 400,000 people move out of Texas annually as well. It's just that TX happens to gain more inbound than outbound whereas CA is the other way around.

It's a common misconception that people are no longer moving to California-in fact nearly 5 milliion did just that in the last decade.

Every 1 out of 6 people you came across in 2010 since moved out of state while 1 out of every 8 people you come across today moved to CA within past ten years. Really gives you perspective on how fluid and transient the US population actually is.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by JManc

Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?

Americans move a lot. I expect most states are similar.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Again, these are not the Census counts. The 2020 state-level Census data come out in August.

These are the older state-level data from 2020 estimates, preceding the enumerated count. In decennial years there are basically two data dumps - the ACS estimates and the official decennial count.

No, these are California state estimates:

The state's population estimate comes from a number of sources, including birth and death counts, the number of new driver's licenses and address changes, school enrollments and federal tax returns.

[Eightball]

Originally Posted by JManc

Roughly 1 out of 6 Californians left California in that time span?

I personally moved in and out of CA twice during the last decade alone so seems very plausible to me LOL

[Camelback]

Originally Posted by Eightball

I personally moved in and out of CA twice during the last decade alone so seems very plausible to me LOL

Every year, about 10% of the population (35 million) will make a move. Some of those that move, will cross state lines. A state as large as California could easily tally up a figure of 6 million over a 10 year span.

[galleyfox]

Originally Posted by DCReid

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

Has California reached its peak and is now on New York's path of relative slow or no-existent growth, or maybe decline?

I don’t know what to believe. The population estimates for many states were quite off compared to the population actually recorded in the official census. The census completely missed about 4% of New York’s population over the past decade.

I would wait for the next year or two to judge California’s trajectory since Covid could have just shifted deaths and immigration in time rather than actually changed the long term rates.

[iheartthed]

The U.S. as a whole almost shrank last year for the first time in history.

[bnk]

Originally Posted by iheartthed

The U.S. as a whole almost shrank last year for the first time in history.

Do you have a link to that statement?

[iheartthed]

Originally Posted by bnk

Do you have a link to that statement?

Here:

The Census Bureau recently reported in a preliminary estimate that the U.S. population grew 0.35% in the year through July 1, 2020. This marks the fifth consecutive year of slowing growth, as seen in the figure below. Population growth in 2020 also was notably lower than the previous year’s revised growth of 0.46%; 2020 growth will likely be the slowest annual population increase in U.S. history outside of wartime.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-ec...d-further-2020

[3rd&Brown]

Originally Posted by DCReid

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...story-77558322

Has California reached its peak and is now on New York's path of relative slow or no-existent growth, or maybe decline?

Such a weird statement. NY grew by 800K people in the last decade.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by 3rd&Brown

Such a weird statement. NY grew by 800K people in the last decade.

And California grew by 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020.

Essentially, people moved out of the state, and not enough people moved into the state to replace those who left mostly because the pandemic brought international immigration to a screeching halt, but also because it kept over 80,000 students abroad from entering the country to study at California universities. Meanwhile, births declined slightly while deaths increased year-over-year by about 20%, for obvious reasons.

After 171 straight years of growth, California could possibly benefit from a breather before growth resumes. And because of the historic nature of the pandemic that so strongly impacted the state's demographics, I doubt we'll see another year-over-year population loss, but who knows.

[dave8721]

Originally Posted by craigs

And California grew by 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020.

Essentially, people moved out of the state, and not enough people moved into the state to replace those who left mostly because the pandemic brought international immigration to a screeching halt, but also because it kept over 80,000 students abroad from entering the country to study at California universities. Meanwhile, births declined slightly while deaths increased year-over-year by about 20%, for obvious reasons.

After 171 straight years of growth, California could possibly benefit from a breather before growth resumes. And because of the historic nature of the pandemic that so strongly impacted the state's demographics, I doubt we'll see another year-over-year population loss, but who knows.

This. People have always been moving out of California. Due to the pandemic, they were not replaced with international immigration for once. Once things get back to normal, we can assume international immigration will come back and most will go to California like they always have.

[RST500]

Originally Posted by craigs

And California grew by 2.6 million between 2010 and 2020.

Essentially, people moved out of the state, and not enough people moved into the state to replace those who left mostly because the pandemic brought international immigration to a screeching halt, but also because it kept over 80,000 students abroad from entering the country to study at California universities. Meanwhile, births declined slightly while deaths increased year-over-year by about 20%, for obvious reasons.

After 171 straight years of growth, California could possibly benefit from a breather before growth resumes. And because of the historic nature of the pandemic that so strongly impacted the state's demographics, I doubt we'll see another year-over-year population loss, but who knows.

I support modest population growth through increasing the housing supply but the scenario of an exodus plus immigration is a disaster for social cohesion and California as a whole.

[craigs]

Originally Posted by RST500

I support modest population growth through increasing the housing supply but the scenario of an exodus plus immigration is a disaster for social cohesion and California as a whole.

Do you live in California?